什么是猩猩公司？

猩猩公司的优势在于它们靠自己的产品搭建了一套开放系统。上下游和终端的客户都依赖这套系统，转换成本极高，也就导致进入壁垒极高。这也是为什么Uniswap和Solana都在搞钱包，希望以此拉高用户的转换成本，毕竟把旧钱包的资产全部转移费时费力。不仅如此，其他依托在这套系统之上的公司和个体都会帮助它们做大做强，这就是猩猩公司的先发者优势，当有其他竞争对手想要和猩猩公司叫板的时候，它不是在和一家公司作对，而是在和一整个生态系统作对，难度极大。从这一点来比较比特币和以太坊该投资哪个，以太坊更具有猩猩公司的潜质，因为它可以吸引开发者在它上面添砖加瓦，而比特币一开始的设计就为了安全性和稳定性牺牲了一部分开放性。另一方面公链大战中也应该选择能吸引最多开发者的公链，目前来看以太坊上的开发者数量遥遥领先，因此生态也最繁荣。

与“猩猩公司”形成鲜明对比的是“猴子公司”，在币圈就是各类山寨币仿盘和号称以太坊杀手的公链。他们主打一个价廉物美，以更低的价格提供同样的产品，但是从投资者的角度，价格便宜永远不是买入一个资产的理由。此类公司没有定价权也没有制定规则的能力，一旦它们对标的“猩猩公司”开始更改规则，他们也要被迫跟着改。

什么时候买？

时机很重要。猩猩公司出现会带动新趋势的“龙卷风暴”。一个最显著的标志是mass adoption，即被主流大众所接受。而被主流所接受则往往是由一个终端的杀手级应用程序(killer app)达成的。这个杀手级应用给用户的体验很熟悉，上手没什么学习曲线，由此普及。目前来看以太坊上还没有一个特别出圈的杀手级应用，最开始的DEFI Summer吸引的是投机交易者，21年-22年的NFT有了一定的热度，甚至有圈外明星入场，但主流大众还没有找到一个必须开始使用以太坊的理由，掌握数字钱包也有一定的学习曲线。有趣的是书中提到个人计算机诞生的时候也是类似情景。当时使用个人计算机需要一定的技术编程背景，只有少数极客在热烈推崇，其余人普遍反应冷淡，看不到任何普及的可能性，之后用户界面越来越友好，除了计算还有了各类应用程序，互联网龙卷风暴就正式开启了。回到今天，老百姓苦银行久矣，硅谷银行的危机给很多公司都敲了警钟，管理自己资金的需求越来越迫切。另一方面，民众对Meta这样的大科技公司随意贩卖用户数据也很反感，创作者无法靠自己的内容获得足够的经济回报，这些都有可能成为crypto获得主流认可的原因。

当然天下无不散的筵席，当下一波的技术革新来临，而猩猩公司无法跟上的时候，就是该抛售的时候了。不过在这之前，猩猩公司所能带来的回报将会超过投资人最初的期望，因为人就是不擅长预测爆发性增长的威力，所以除非行业的发展发生变化，否则短期的负面消息反而是加仓的好机会。

总得来说这本书理清了科技公司爆发式增长的原因和迹象，看完会想要去找找英文的互联网发展史相关书籍来阅读。

货币是我们生活中不可或缺的部分，不管是纸币还是电子支付，人们对于“钱”的概念基本可以和“法币”划等号。哈耶克作为奥地利经济学派的代表驳斥了这一观点。

1. 良币长什么样子？

要细数法币的不是，我们就要先讲讲它的反面，良币长什么样。在我父母的年纪，”万元户“就相当于我们今天的”百万富翁“，而今天“百万富翁”已经不稀奇了。这都是因为钱在贬值。由此我们可以推断，良币的购买力应该保持稳定，一百年前的良币能买一篮子的东西，放到今天依然能买一篮子。如此人们对于资本主义必须不断扩张，财产必须不断保值的焦虑就会少很多。

2. 法币是最优解吗？

美国的企业文化中很强调Diversity，投资的金科玉律里也能反复听到Diversification分散投资这样的劝诫。我始终坚信多样性要比单一性好太多，那么为什么在货币这个东西上人们就只有法币可用呢？有人或许会说不同国家的法币本来就是分散化，美元就是要比其他货币优越。然而不管美元再怎么霸道，它依旧是政府制造的。政府作为一个行政机构，是不可能做到及时调整物价以保证购买力的稳定的。在客观上它不能，在主观上它也不想。

3. 政府为什么要搞量化宽松？温和通胀是可能的吗？

Trump任期内最喜欢夸耀的就是他把经济搞好了。一个政府要证明自己经济搞得好，很重要的指标就是失业率。假设一家企业经营不善，准备裁员。政府为了保证失业率不涨，就会开始搞量化宽松。这些增发的钱流向市场，消费增加了，企业的营收变好了，就可以不用裁员了。听起来很棒，可惜量化宽松只是饮鸩止渴的政策。美国自从疫情就开始印钱，从一开始熔断快速反弹，到现在市场已经对政府的QE政策没什么反应了。QE本来应该是政府的救市策略，只能用于经济实在不行的时候来一剂振奋剂。现在成了政府自我揽功的好手段，反正短期经济搞上去了就好了，长期谁管呢？频繁宽松的结果就是下一次必须要比这一次力度还大才能起作用，法币只有不断贬值这一个下场。

4. 私人发币为什么是解决方案？

讽刺的是虽然政府口口声声说要反垄断，但在货币上它们自己就是最大的垄断者。垄断使得劣币无法被淘汰，在德国一战战败后，马克不断贬值，中产一夜变赤贫，人民毫无办法。这都是因为没有其他备选方案能用，每个国家都对外汇有所管制，使用其他国家的法币也不是长久之计。只有货币像私人企业一样进入到互相竞争，优胜劣汰的领域，人们才可能用上良币。因为有了竞争，所以货币发行方有足够的动力去保证自己货币的稳定性，如果它们像政府一样增发导致货币贬值，那人们很快就会转向更保值的币种。

5. 劣币驱逐良币？No No No

“劣币驱逐良币“，又称Gresham’s law。它的逻辑是，假设你手上有100刀的纸钞和价值100刀的黄金，你会用哪一种来买东西？大部分人一定会选择花纸钞，存黄金。结果就导致明明大家都知道黄金更优良，在市场上流通最广的却是纸钞这样的劣币。不过哈耶克在书中表示，这种情况只有在良币和劣币之间的汇率恒定的情况下才会发生。如果劣币不断贬值，它和良币之间的汇率也在变化，那么人们毫无疑问会弃之，转向良币。这就是为什么在恶性通胀最严重的时候，人们开始抛弃法币，转而用烟酒等其他更保值的商品当成货币使用。

看完这本书深刻感受到数字货币的伟大。能跳脱出习以为常的“法币”思维，冒着被政府惩罚的危险，也要为不自由的人民提供更优的解决方案，这是怎样的想象力和执行力啊。表白哈耶克和中本聪。

第一点，也是本书中没有强调，却贯穿全书的主旨，那就是写交易日记。每一次操作一定要记录下自己的操作思路。大部分人搞投资花大量的时间在预测盘面上，作者却说预测市场只是投资很小的一部分，真正交易时下注多少，如果市场走势不如预期怎么操作，止损止盈，这些才构成了完整的交易思路。而NFT交易又比一般的投资多了一个项目考察，如果再加上宏观经济和量价分析，一笔交易要记的就不少。我在看这本书的时候也很惊讶作者连十几年前交易某只期货时的入场点位，当时的盘面以及自己的判断依据都历历在目，可见这几十年都笔耕不缀，别的不说这份毅力就值得学习。我自己也在Notion里有几个不同的分区，分别记录想买的项目清单，卖出理由，选项目的标准，和交易日记。割肉时看看以前看好的理由也是哭笑不得。就比如买PXN的时候被创始人的口才，过去成功的项目经验，极低的挂单率还有大V的alpha call所蒙蔽，没有在情况发生变化后及时离场。在NFT圈有一种对卖出者的“荡妇羞辱”，其实大可不必，今天买明天卖有两种情况，有些人是一开始就没好好了解清楚项目，另一种是情况不如预期。前者是该反省，后者是识时务者为俊杰。多写交易日记有助于复盘，说不定坚持十年自己也能写出一本《十年一梦NFT版》呢。

这就引出了下一点，及时获利了结及时止损。人的天性导致普通人对沉没成本及其敏感，而NFT又是个瞬息万变且流动性极差的市场。这种市场中脚底抹油的人赚最多。就连《富人思维》的作者Jason Calacanis也说在他们的风投圈子里流传着一句话，“赚钱只因买得早”。前几天在群里我说自己所有的亏损都是来自于钻石手，大家都含泪赞同。可见在交易的战场上真心有时未必会换来真心。这市场上大部分的项目就像日本风俗店里的牛郎，一开始就是冲着你的钱来的，会营销的项目在破发后还时常给你一种自己在救风尘的错觉，其实项目方比你有钱多了。那些甜言蜜语的承诺也都是为了让你掏更多的钱。有时候你反应过来稍微质疑他两句还会被PUA，最后如果还不自认倒霉及时离场就只能以贩养吸越陷越深了。反之亦然，一些我曾经很看好的项目在这轮熊市也挡不住冲击，利润回吐比单纯割肉更棘手，比如3Landers就从曾经的2E跌到现在的0.4，跌幅80%。作者青泽也说：“两鸟在林不如一鸟在手。意外暴利要立刻获利了结。”除非是可以保证随着时间推移作品会越来越稀罕的艺术类项目，否则在现在的市场行情下其实就该如作者在期货的操作上一样，“买入后三天还没出现利润就应该平仓离场”。

都说币圈一天，人间一年。现在得空回忆一下过去几个月的经历都觉得恍如隔世。还记得共和党议员在国会上说出那句确保Web 3要发生在美国的金句多么振奋人心，到现在规模宏大的机构三箭资本宣告破产，市场就像是恩威并施的老师。你做对的时候它会毫不吝啬地奖励你，你操作失误的时候它也会给你上沉重的一课。我们作为一个小小玩家，既不能把个人的意志强加给市场，也不能随波逐流没有自己的判断。记得还没入圈的时候看到人说不要接飞刀，我心里十分不屑，没听巴菲特老人家说“别人恐惧我贪婪”吗？直到真正经历熊市了才知道顶和底都是时候才知道，当下没人能预判方向。“对一个投机者来说，不要去参考市场中别人的行为，从众是通向地狱最廉价的门票。” 所以不要盲目听信任何人的后市行情判断，不要把宝贵的时间浪费在盯盘上。针对这点作者提出一个反直觉的观点：“因为重仓交易而失败的交易者要比逆势交易失败的少得多。因为逆势交易是温水煮青蛙。”所以经验丰富的老人会说在后市不明朗的时候宁可少操作，做右侧交易也别做左侧，错过一点小利润比方向错误的损失要少得多。重要的是要敢于形成独特的判断。既不能在市场走势相反的时候轻易改变自己的判断，也不能再出现明显变盘信号后还固执己见不改变看法。

看完这本书更让我坚定了投资是修心的观点。从青泽老师的文字中也能感受到他的阅读量极大，且绝不单单看投资类的书籍，美学和哲学也都有涉猎。有时候浸泡在市场中反而会变得麻木，投资本身就是跨学科的领域，多读一些所谓“无用之书”也能带来新鲜的想法。感兴趣的可以在推特上@NFTCocoa与我交流书单。

Today you asked me many good questions expressing your doubt about NFTs. After an hour-long discussion, my answer is far from sufficient to convince you, but I decided to gather my thoughts more thoroughly and hand you a written record to laugh at me 10 years later, or I hope by that time you already embraced this new space and we can laugh together :D

First, you raised a very key question, what exactly is NFT? You heard on the news that it involves copyrights and identity authentication, but is there anything more than that? This is a hard question even for early adopters in the space, as this is such a young industry that some of the best usages of NFTs have not been invented yet. I can only summarize from my limited experience that NFTs currently have the following 3 usages:

• Intellectual Property. Think of Disney movies or songs on Spotify. IPs are valuable as the room for imagination is boundaryless, thus the monetary value should also reflect that, right? Unfortunately, it’s not the case in real life. Creators struggle to defend their own IPs, some don’t even get the chance to turn their work into IPs. NFTs solve the creator economy problem by taking away the middleman, bridging creators and their audience directly, and creating a steady income stream through royalty fees. NFT can also form connections with physical properties, as we already have real estate properties listed on Opensea as an NFT.

• Access Pass. Examples include conference admission or club membership. Human beings are social animals and we are constantly in search of interest groups. You asked why we still need another proof system while we already have QR codes and physical membership cards? My answer to that is it’s all about efficiency and scalability. Access pass in the form of NFTs can aggregate those groups in a single wallet and unlock future benefits in the form of airdrops. Instead of going to a hundred websites with different usernames and passwords, and submitting your credit card information separately, you could do it all with two clicks in your wallet.

• Crowd-funding for Startups. The prior two are from users’ standpoints. You asked me if I would start my own NFT collection, what would I tell my investors what it is about? And as a stereotypical consultant, I am going to give you the never-can-go-wrong answer: it depends. Every NFT has a builder team behind it, and they are not much different from startups. The only difference is that instead of begging traditional Venture Capital firms, the founding team can now engage directly with retail investors.

From a technical security standpoint, is it too risky to use NFT? What if there is something wrong with the blockchain? You hit the nail on the head, my friend. The whole point of inventing blockchain, this massive distributed database system, is to reduce the single vendor reliance problem. Think of all the human tragedies in history, dictatorship, Chornobyl disaster, Enron scandal, Facebook data leakage. What do they have in common? Single point of control and lack of transparency. Blockchain solves those two problems at once with a trustless system, as long as there is one miner in the world to verify the transactions, the blockchain will continue to exist and the data are on chain, publicly accessible to anyone. There are certainly vulnerabilities in the code, but whiteheads will continue to have incentives to fix bugs, and this living system will evolve at a much faster pace than any single company/government entity on earth, as the code is open sourced.

After getting some basic understanding of what NFTs can do, why it has to live on the blockchain, you went on and raised your concern. Bored Apes worth the same price as a house makes you nervous, how could such a profitable return sustain itself? With all of the public sentiment, overdue government regulation, and memory from the internet bubble, isn’t NFT just another make-rich quick scheme? And even if there is some room for play here, the old/big/smart money must already have their skin in the game, how can normal people with a day job like you and me compete with those institutions?

Those are all valid concerns. And the lazy answer to address them all is this: we are still early. The whole NFT market cap is roughly $800M as of March 2022 based on Opensea trading volume. For comparison, a single luxury goods brand like LVMH is worth $325B, 400 times bigger, and it’s highly likely by the time the next generation of kids grew up, they will view NFTs as the new luxury brands. Those kids were born into an era where their parents are preparing generation wealth in crypto form for them, their peers are well-exposed to the latest NFT trends on Tiktok, and they are just one purchase away from being in the same NFT group with their favorite stars such as Justin Bieber. By the time they have consumer power, NFTs will likely be the most popular presents among youngsters. The road is not always straight and we might experience multiple bubble burst moments, schemes, and bear markets, but by the time we come out, the market will gain exponential growth compared to where we are today.

We retail investors may not have the same level of leverage and capital, but we are more agile than those too-big-to-fail institutions. A public company like Tesla needs to go through many legal hassles and politics to include Bitcoin in its financial statement. The innovator’s dilemma will trap those traditional financial institutions until they have to react to market change. We don’t have to wait. Needless to say in a blue ocean market, it is not a zero-sum game, the pie is literally so big that you have to invite people to come and eat it, and that’s exactly why I wrote this article. There will be more government regulations, but it’s not a bad thing as regulation is necessary for mass adoption. Don’t fight the waves, join the tides and ride with them together.

I will see you down the rabbit hole, on the other side.

Love,

Cocoa

0.025的mint价今天一路涨到0.13，一开始是因为有交易量在很多alpha群看到call，但是稍微研究一下就认定这个项目不是degen这么简单。一般来说我是不碰像素画的，因为它制作成本低，常出rug，但是这个项目的像素有点不同，如果一定要说就是很干净，后来听团队推特语音才知道这些像素元素都是经过测试精心挑选出来的。艺术家Stvn之前在Zoom做产品设计，所以设计是他的老本行。

买NFT项目其实就是在做风险投资人。我曾经听一个风投基金的主理人说过，他挑选项目的时候面试创业者，初印象很重要，创业者有30秒的时间解释自己的项目到底是做什么，如果一两句话说不清楚，那基本就可以筛掉了。有没有发现，市场上大多数的NFT项目都无法做到一句话讲清楚自己的项目在做什么，千篇一律的路线图，发币发周边给福利，这些是无法构成一个品牌或者组建一个强大的社区的。而unemployables这个项目，你都不需要去看项目网站，光看名字都能猜出来它是和朝九晚五相反的，是不是有点mfer/loser club那味道了？有这种名字都不需要使劲推广，名字就是最好的招牌，这年头裸辞和自由职业完全是平台的流量密码。

Unemployables的受众足够具体，就是自由职业者，根据Statista今年年初的数据预测，2022年美国的自由职业者人数在6700万，而到2028这个数字将会增长到9000万，届时美国一半的劳动力都是自由职业者（数据来源）。疫情促进了这个趋势，这个数字在全球也将稳步增长。找准受众+能够解决用户痛点的产品 = 创业成功了一半，接下来还要看团队。

https://unemployables.io/

点进它们的网站看看，意外舒适的界面，极简的设计，几句话就把它们想做的事情说清楚了。它们想要建立一个支持自由职业者和创作者的社区，提供奖学金和软件的订阅费。这和它们的母公司able.com想做的事情是一脉相承的。able是个管账手机软件，旨在帮助自由职业者记账报价报税，现在在苹果商店上有4.9/5.0的高分，近600条评论。做调研的时候我去注册试用了一下它们的软件，发现要实名还要连银行账户，在注重隐私的时代还能有这么多人给好评，可见他们的产品解决了很多人的痛点。有已经成形的产品对投资人来说很重要，事实胜于雄辩，不仅证明这个团队能做成事情，更表明他们合作默契，所以才会继续一起做事。创始人公开自己的就职公司也代表他们会尽力做好这个NFT项目，否则做砸了还会连累母公司。

看到这里可能有人会说，这个项目的资金链要怎么维持？自由职业者的收入不算稳定，而项目给奖学金支持他们或者买软件都需要用钱，这确实有待考察。但就这个想法来说，是很有做成功的征兆的。NFT项目发行后要解决的两大问题，缺钱和缺人。其中缺人比缺钱还难解决，而这个项目汇聚的正是各类创作者，画画的做音乐的做网页设计的写代码的等等，社区就是他们的人才池，共赢机制就是这么形成的。过去几十年成功的科技公司都是从一个荒谬的想法开始的，脸书的雏形只是校内网，目标用户还是穷学生。爱彼迎是把陌生人招进家里，就连NFT和区块链都是这样，谁会想要分布式记账这种这么不高效的数据结构，谁会想要画重金买可以右键另存为的小图片？这都是听起来不怎么会盈利的项目，但也正因为如此，这些明知山有虎偏向虎山行的创始人都是真心热爱自己的创业项目，热情驱动他们克服万难做下去。所以他们能做到先发优势，等到大家想明白逻辑已经无法撼动它们的地位了。NFT和互联网的交叉领域在未来五年将诞生一批这样的公司，无数人看过，质疑，错过，但它们的名字终将作为商业案例载入史册，我们拭目以待。

感谢你的阅读。

1. 不要追涨FOMO。我记得我第一次看到FOMO这个词还是比特币四万多的时候，当时有个博主劝导大家不要FOMO我还不以为然，觉得他挡着我赚钱了。事实证明，FOMO这东西只有亲自栽跟头才会长记性。我目前为止亏得最多的三笔交易都是因为FOMO，在未开盒的时候追进去。FOMO的根本原因还是贪欲，因为想赚钱的欲望太强烈，而掌握的资源又是那么少，所以不愿意错过任何一个暴富的机会。其实时间久了就知道，每天都有新机会，当你FOMO的时候，往往最好的买入时机已经错过了。永远记住要买在无人问津时，卖在人声鼎沸时。

2. 不要害怕做纸手，保证流动性。每一个入NFT圈的人初期都会有种上瘾的感觉，买小图片的感觉太好了，现实生活中明明要上千美刀的要价，转换成以太就像不要钱的游戏币一样花，这都是人性。这种多巴胺分泌的结果就是每个人都会持仓过重（over-allocated)。每个项目都动真心，不愿意做渣男转头就走，暗自发誓要做钻石手，并时不时拿BAYC猴子的历史麻痹自己，认为纸手是发不了财的，只有拿到最后才能赚到大钱。其实这个是分阶段的，启动资金在10E以上的玩家可以适当允许自己长持，而普通玩家的玩法还是先滚出10E，想要滚出10E最快速的方式就是做纸手，因为市场上大部分项目都是一波流，利润率最高的时候还是项目发售的时候，那时候热度最高，印的成本又很低。等到热度褪去想要再抛售，一是价格回落心里会有落差，二是也没那么好出手了。等到有一定经历和本金了，拥有了辨别好项目的眼光，可以允许自己结合交易量多拿一会，但我仍然不建议等开盒。从概率上来讲抽到1/1的机率不值得我冒着少赚E的风险去赌，就像我不信彩票。即使是看好项目的未来，大可以开图后再捡一个自己喜欢的，有得挑还更便宜。而我本人的经历更多时候是卖掉就不会想买回来了，还是手持以太更安心。这是因为人总是会不断合理化自己的决策，因为买入了所以觉得它一定会涨得更高，而卖掉也会告诉自己这是正确的决定。套牢和卖飞哪个更难受？对于流动性少的玩家，一定是套牢更难受，因为没有流动性你连赌桌都上不了，之后再有什么好项目只会干瞪眼。如果真舍不得，那也要用赚来的利润来长持，本金一定要赚回来，只有这样雪球才会越滚越大，别忘了我们的最终目的都是来赚钱的，你是想要钱包里有一堆E还是有一堆小图片？

3. 大部分人来这个圈子里是找钱来的，但他们往往赚不到钱，谁能赚到钱？会找人的人。NFT是个极度依赖信息源的行业，由于处于早期，一切都是混沌，每天新项目不说上千也有上百，单靠一人的力量是难打江山的，如果你能交10个知心朋友，每天分享自己筛选过的好项目，或者分享蹲开门的链接，那你就比其他人领跑了太多，实现了信息的去中心化。找人是个水到渠成的事情，想要得到先要给予，持续提供价值就会找到志同道合的朋友。另外一个更省力的方式是加入alpha群组，这种往往需要一定的门槛，但只要有心总能找到谈得来的群组。

4. 做好时间管理，项目管理，和心态管理。NFT是个很费时间的活，丰厚的利润背后是无数肝白的夜晚和心力上的焦灼。这种时候有一套自己的管理体系很重要。比如把时间切成几份，规定自己在刷DC之外还要学习新知识，看书看研报，和持续输出。准备好一张Excel表格，记录自己拿到白的项目有没有提交地址，什么时候mint。以及统计自己交易的利润和资产分配，及时复盘并调整仓位。培养这些良好的习惯都能帮你减轻大脑主机的压力，专注于思考和生产力。最重要的是心态管理，因为比财务自由更高阶的自由是心态自由。我曾经看到过手持上百小图片的大佬说自己的人生多么空荡荡，他有多么害怕失去所有，可见有钱不等于能够保持快乐。我也曾和朋友说过我觉得自己的像一个小民拿着小网兜下海捞鱼，眼睁睁看着无数财富从我身边流过，可我只能抓住一个小网兜的量，目之所及不乏一夜暴富的故事，故事里却没有我的姓名。就更不提那些踏空，卖飞，套牢的时刻能引起多大的心理波动了。但逝者如斯夫不舍昼夜，过去了的就放自己一马，向前看才有逆天改命的机会不是么。有很多翻十倍的机会之所以会踏空并不可惜，因为眼界没到那里，购买的理由不够充分就算时间倒流也不敢抠动扳机，与其把时间拿来懊悔，不如总结好经验保证以后不再犯同样的错误。调整预期，不能苛求自己每一笔交易都要赚钱，只要总账是赚的就是好的。这些都是心态管理的一部分。

   不知道读到这里的你们有什么投资NFT的避坑建议能给到后来人，欢迎来推特@NFTCocoa找我交流。

1. Liquidity! Liquidity! Liquidity! I cannot emphasize this enough to myself, really need to stop impulse buy, oftentimes I burn liquidity due to FOMO my dream NFT, only to realize later I could have acquired the same piece at a cheaper price.

2. WOW released WOWG, BAYC issued Ape Coins, Azuki released Bobu and airdropped “something official”. Bluechips want to expand and attract both capital and talents, this could be a win-win for investors wanting to access the bluechip ecosystem in the long term, but be cautious to dive in right after the hype.

3. For PFP projects, flip pre-reveal is the go-to strategy, don’t wait till post-reveal as it’s statistically unintelligent to bet on 1% rare, or pump after the reveal. If you truly love the project, could always re-enter after the reveal and pick the one you like with higher ranks. BUT, for utility projects like passes or tools, flipping right away may not be the best strategy as the value only manifests itself after consolidation.

4. Minting in a bear market becomes very risky, don’t jump off the gun right after the pre-sale starts, if the OS price is lower than 0.1, it’s a no-go taking into account the mint price+royalty fee+gas. Don’t waste time on earning 0.01E bearing the risk of losing the initial cost.

5. Set boundary. NFT is a 24/7 space but you don’t have to follow the crowd. Grinding for WL and spending too much time in discord is still exchanging cheap labor for money, which is not very time-effective. At the end of the day, what you can carry with you besides ETH is the knowledge and the network you built, not those meanless conversations or discord levels.

If you care to see the detailed breakdown:

In total I made 13 WL mints in March, 6 no mints, several secondary trades.

Out of the 13 WL mints, 8 are profitable:

• Kibatsu Mecha | 0.3 → 1.3 (+1E)

• Loser Club | 0.088*2 → 0.15, 0.18, also flipped 0.08 during the pump (+0.32E), still keeping one that I like at 0.17E

• Fortune Dao Genesis | 0.088 → 0.37 (+0.28E)

• Sprite Club | 0.07*2 → 0.17, 0.22 (0.25E)

• OKPC | 0.188 → 0.35 (0.16E)

• Coniun | 0.15 → 0.25 (0.1E), still holding the other

• Metroverse Blackout - still holding

• AquaTools | 0.08 → 0.24 - still holding

5 are either break-even or lost gas: Happy Homies, Foodgod, Chumchum, Seekers, Oozoid.

6 no mints are: Courtyard, Astro Girls Society, Flair, NekoCore, Skylinez (rug), Loveless City Abnormal Jeans

Secondary trades:

• sold Wonderpal at 0.87, re-entered at 0.57. Looking back could have been more patient.

• sold Stapleverse Teabag at break-even price, price dipped post the seed flip as expected.

• bought bobu post mint at 0.079, considered at a low entry point to the Azuki ecosystem, should wait a couple more days after the hype.

• sold Starcatchers at 0.29, lost faith after the artist left the project.

• got into several new art collections including: Mythic Guardians, Imaginary Creatures, Curious Cabin, The Cat Haus, Stickers Planet, Downpour, Ghxsts Culture, The Art of Seasons, Pilots in Cocoon. Those always bring me the most joy and keep me mentally sane.

• bought WOWG at 1.6, holding long term.

• sold FlyFish Club in order to acquire two more 3landers at 2.2, 2.3. should have saved half the liquidity for the dip later, plan to hold long term.

Thank you for reading till the end, I hope bull is back in April so we can enjoy the ride, just hang in there!

We are now several weeks into the bear market, many people lost interest grinding for WLs, as most won’t even sell out, and few will sustain the floor above the mint price. Trading volumes have no plan of coming back just yet, so even with liquidity in hand, it’s still risky to buy into any secondary market items with a premium. So what to do with the time and tiny liquidity if your hands feel itchy?

My choice is to buy small artistic collections (SAC). NFT is a relatively illiquid market and SAC is an even more illiquid category within it. Since we are now in NFT’s booming phase, with exponential growth comes the extraordinary bubble or overvaluation. A 10K collection can easily tell the story of getting rich quick and attract more bagholders instantly with the high trading volumes. SAC is a different story, its value is built entirely upon the art, which is subjective, and thus harder to get market recognition in a short period of time. Large NFT collection’s high price is backed by its large community, SAC doesn’t have the luxury to attract enough base and create a culture of its own. However, the crack is where the light comes in.

SAC’s illiquidity tends to scare off flippers and has the advantage of attracting true appreciators. Buying SAC is more like consumption rather than investment, thus its buyer profile is either like someone who sits on bluechip NFTs and has a handful of ETHs to spend, or buyers like me, who haven’t made it yet, but would rather eat ramen noodles for a week to collect talented artists’ early work. Both buyers have true faith and are preset to be diamond hands because they are emotionally attached to the piece. If the value of money comes from the compounding effect of time, then which one would you rather choose? A 10K computer randomized collection with basic art elements? OR a hand-drawn piece that took years of art practice and years of waiting till the buyer decided to take profit?

From a community management perspective, SAC also has its unique advantage. There is a dilemma in community building, you want to scale the community, but with scaling comes the lower user quality, which eventually leaves the OGs disappointed and left. SACs don’t have to go through such dilemma, its rarity naturally creates a close-knit community from the beginning with meaningful conversation going on in Discord daily and members knowing each other as family, e.g. Ghxsts. Buyers come with minimum expectation to make a financial return, so there is no “Wen” sentiment” and in case the floor increases over time, it’s a positive feeding loop to earn steady growth with new members joining and minimum disruption to the OGs. Such a loyal community base means little downsides and huge potential upsides, e.g. Good Morning Cafe with 300 owners and a floor price of 2.29, no undercutting each other, and no panic selling in bear market.

When it comes to SAC project selection, I typically look for 3 patterns:

• Does the art have a visual impact, meaning you cannot take eyes away from it and it lures you to own it no matter what, trust your instinct if you have good tastes.

• Do the artists have their own signature style and are fueled to create for the rest of their lives? This is what keeps the project alive. Ideally, the artists should also be NFT collectors themselves so they know how the market works and can design some sort of mechanism to increase their influence, such as airdrop/reward system/collab.

• Has the work already attracted some kind of whales or bluechip holders? This may sound utilitarian, but they are key to the success of SAC.

  There is a lot more on this topic I could share, and this is a deep water area. I may write another post as I continue on this journey. Thank you for reading.

基本信息

• 发行时间：03/05/2022，10000只

• 发行价：0.088E，预售白单一个钱包2只，公售5只

• DC人数：4987（不对外开放），推特关注数：24K。

• 推特创建时间：2022年1月

亮点

1. 自带文化标签。失败者这样的丧文化在有针对性的同时又能引起共鸣。欧美的年轻人嚷嚷着要追求财务自由早日退休都好几年了，从日本传来的“鲁蛇文化”也让“躺平”成为了去年的热词。在现在这种熊市行情中，项目拥有相当数量的钻石手是不破发的关键，而钻石手的来源是来自群众基础，想要建立群众基础，项目方一定要找好自己想要针对的特定人群，而不能只是广义的出玩具搞周边上传元宇宙。

   丧穿地心就能绝处逢生。丧文化的另一面其实就是中国古代所提出的“行到水穷处，坐看云起时。” 所以这个社区里的人非但不消极，还非常和善和团结。我还是第一次看到在粉丝创作频道里有那么多人会为别人的作品点赞和评论。包括他们的聊天主频道也叫underdog-chat，underdog下犬体现的是暂处弱势却有机会逆袭的精神。就像mfer是叛逆精神的代表，Loser Club聚集的是一群等待逆袭的鲁蛇们。现在市面上也许有很多团队想要蹭女性或是平权这样的政治正确标签，Loser Club从来没有标榜过自己的多元性，但是从他的团队和晒出的预览图里处处能看到包容的精神，也只有受过压迫的人做鲁蛇这样的主题才能让人信服。可以预见这个项目将会改写女性和黑人在一套NFT中发行数量少且只能坐地板的尴尬局面。

2. 灵魂人物。一个好项目想要保证不破发，要不就是有明确的赋能让人有动力持续持有，大部分早期的头像类项目不具备这点，即使有赋能市场也不一定买账。最直接的办法还是要有一个有人格魅力的社区建设者，能吸引价值观相同的人群并提高忠诚度。这一点其实能从很多奢侈品牌的发家史中找到类似的踪迹，比如可可香奈儿或老佛爷。即使NFT行业还很年轻，头部的项目一样需要为自己书写历史，比如BAYC的设定就是一群在币圈赚够了钱的猿，所以才叫无聊猿。说回Loser Club，每当我和其他人谈到Loser Club，他们第一反应就是称赞作者j’von，他在绘制Loser Club之前已经是小有名气的视觉艺术家和音乐制作人，说起来我认识到他的机遇也很巧妙，是因为一个Fish Fam的NFT项目合约出问题，当时在推特的语音讨论中认识了j’von，才知道原来他就是Fish Fam背后的画家，但是那个团队并没有给到他应得的报酬。当时我就对他印象很好，能听出很chill且人品很好，即使自己的利益受损了也没有太计较，而是转而创作自己的作品，不是那种乱画大饼的dev。虽然他的自我介绍中说自己不酷，但是这正是他可爱的地方，人格魅力这个东西很难形容，总之就是有一群人愿意聚集在他身边为他喝彩这样的魅力。因此合作机会也多。

   顾虑

   没有赋能也没有路线图，全凭社区和作品定价。

   公售一个钱包能买5只，可能会导致抛压高，以及持有人太过集中，需要时间消化。

   价格预测

   这个项目不是那种翻百倍的大火项目，从我对社区的忠诚度观察，预售后的价格应该会在0.2-0.4之间徘徊，白单4000个一人两只很有可能全部mint完，因为他们的白单发放标准偏爱作品创作，中文区也很少工作室，所以纸手含量较低。剩下的2000只抛压可能会暂时把价格带到0.1几，之后稳定在0.2左右。我个人的操作是开图前趁情绪高涨先出掉一只，剩下的一只无成本持有，等开图后再捡回来。

   也许很多项目会觉得自己时运不济赶在熊市发售，这个项目我倒觉得很适合在这个时间点出现，听多了WAGMI和暴富的故事，现在冷却下来才发现“要输一起输”的说法才感人，毕竟最是以太留不住，最后能陪伴我们的不就是一起买买买的伙伴们。

交易复盘 Mar 08, 2022

0.08 Mint了两张，一定要在mint前就想好交易计划，不然到手了可能会舍不得出盲盒，这就是小图片的魅力。理智分析去赌一万个里抽中稀有款的胜率是很低的，所以别去赌。mint当天0.18出掉了一个。这之后价格有所波动，一度超过0.2 我还在怪自己抛早了，但后来回落就觉得熊市还是不要太贪了。如果盲盒开出来不喜欢一定要第一时间卖掉，这样才能腾出资金。

接下来就是等开图挑自己喜欢的。我在蹲开图的时候在gem上0.15扫了一个，以为是稀有款结果并不是，事实证明还是得看清楚图不能乱信排名，排名在刚开那会会变动。如果要接，开图后可以等一会，等价格往下走开始有人undercut了就可以入场了，比如我的判断是这个项目不太可能现在跌破0.1，所以0.1左右就是一个好的入场价。

等待的时间也别闲着，多去看看有什么属性是比较特别的，能扫稀有款最好，但很难成功。所以我会更关注排名并不在10%内，但是一看就觉得眼前一亮的属性，不需要看排名就觉得好看，且价格又是这一属性里挂很低的。我会一次bid多个，总有人想要趁开图获利了结。这次就让我0.17bid到一个非常喜欢的waved oversized sweater。bid完继续观察地板，0.11扫到一个喜欢的短发女孩，排名6千多。

有了两张满意的就想把刚刚在gem上扫的出掉，注意多去Discord的买卖频道刷屏，这样会很快卖掉，再不济也可以和别人商量换自己喜欢的。

利润计算：

• 0.08 -> 0.18

• 0.08  -> 0.15

• 0.15   -> 0.17

• 剩下两只成本价 0.1169, 0.17。比死拿着划算，还能拥有自己喜欢的。所以开图前做纸手没错的。

• 合作：阵容强大

• 画风：异域风情，画家过去成绩优异

• 团队：全Doxxed，和谐融洽会玩

• 技术：丝滑无瑕

• 未来：可期

最开始关注到这个项目是因为它强大的合作阵容，总量10000，3400个白单，每张可以mint 2个，剩下的荷兰拍，起拍价0.75。起拍价与白单mint价0.15之间的价差就意味着白单的分发要保证有足够多的钻石手，这样才能稳住地板。项目方为此选择直接和蓝筹项目合作，包括Doodles, Cool Cats, Ghxsts, Alien Frens等。这就意味着它的潜在持有者有两个特点：第一是在NFT圈相对有经验，毕竟过去的战绩是成功的。第二是不差钱，3landers发行价很有可能只是他们持仓中很小的仓位，不容易被市场情绪或者蝇头小利影响。我在预售过程中就已经看到有人把一只Azuki卖了买17个3landers，这种大佬一般有自己的alpha圈子，他的号召力会坚定很多人的信心。

那么问题来了，它凭什么拿得到蓝筹项目的合作？相信这些蓝筹项目是不缺邀请的，每天新出的NFT项目都想和他们合作，3landers是怎么做到的？这就要说到艺术家3Land Boy (Pom)。Pom出生于泰国现居日本，他的推特置顶中提到他来自一个并不富裕的家庭，画画是让他快乐的方式，这也就是为什么3landers喜欢称自己为dreamers(造梦者)。经历并没有什么惊心动魄但贵在真诚。他之前一套作品3Land World一共240个， 去年7月发行，而现在的这套3landers是去年12月开始造势宣传。这里有一个小经验就是艺术家过去作品的价格可以作为一个先行指数揭示市场预期。从过去3个月的走势可以看出自从消息宣布创世版的价格就一直在涨，市场对他寄予厚望。

Imagination is magical. It is boundless. It is powerful. And it is playful.

Rom的个人简介里只写了上面一句话 ——— “想象力是有魔力的，它无边无际，也强而有力。它还是好玩的。”这句话正是3landers的画风和团队性格。画风非常大胆，不是所有人都能欣赏的那种类型，但可以说是没有先例，想做防盘都很难。为了体现团队多元化国际化的背景，把一万个分成了12个不同的DNA，这样做的好处就是萝卜青菜各有所爱，不会出现地板和均价差很多的情况，而且每一个DNA的地板会变薄，后续DNA之间说不定还可以混杂搞出不同玩法。团队创始人和画家在预售之前就公开身份了，他们经常在推特上开语音分享自己的经历，我去听过一次就被Pom毫无保留的分享打动，他讲到了自己小时候没什么朋友，画画是排解苦闷的方式，也曾被人冷言冷语挫伤过自信，但从不放弃，没人不喜欢逆袭的故事。AMA中也能听出团队成员间氛围很好，时常打情骂俏（不是），过往负责技术的往往隐居幕后，这次Radio 也一起参与，一听就知道这是个必胜的团队配置。Mint完还请了DJ在Discord里放音乐庆祝，给广大废寝忘食的NFT玩家带来了久违的愉悦。

预售的过程可以用无事发生来形容，换句话说无可挑剔。看看今天SoulZ的发售就知道一个平安无事的发售过程需要花多少心血。技术部分请了0xStudio工作室，这个团队之前倒是没怎么听说，但从这次发售采用的block-based timed 24小时内都可以mint不用浪费gas，以及公售并没有被机器人全部扫掉还是能看出实力的。为了保证公平性特地用了Chainlink VRF来打散稀有度，连创始人都不知道哪个是稀有的，这点真是甩隔壁Karafuru老鼠仓一百条街。这个工作室不止负责技术，还负责了一部分运营和宣发，比如让3landers上了曼谷的市中心的广告屏。

价格走势：Mint开始15分钟已经卖出1k个了,OS 挂单0.5的一直被扫地版，中间地板短暂掉到0.45很快稳步回升，看到alpha群里大佬都在抄底疯狂囤货。即使昨天发生了黑客事件整个市场恐慌也没怎么影响地板，买单不断。今天荷兰拍5分钟售罄价格依然没怎么跌，几小时后FOMO开始。这个表现在熊市中十分出彩。

总结：这个项目是我从去年12月入圈起来买的最开心的一个项目，成本低，围观整个预售的过程也很开心。之前谨记的那些开图前要抛掉，翻倍即卖出保本的策略在这里都不适用，连我自己一直以来秉持的审美要求在这个项目面前也纠正了（扭曲了）。唯一遗憾的是没有多买一点，“不重仓无未来”这条依然适用，想想那位卖Azuki的大佬现在已经翻倍了。比起地板能飞多高，我现在更期待参与这个造梦者团队之后的计划，遇到这种让你忘记自己是来赚钱的项目就别错过。

At first, I couldn’t wrap my head around why an avatar photo can be worth the same price of a luxury mansion? After joining project discords and reading some NFT roadmaps, it became intuitive to me this should be the way it is, because creativity and community is priceless. Note NFT is not just about the art itself. When I’m talking about creativity, it involves everyone in the community. Whether it’s the developer who designed the contract so minting gas fee is optimized, or the discord member that spreads some love through fan art or voluntary community engagement. Just like buying stocks, it takes so many factors for a company to be successful and most importantly stay competitive for the foreseeable future. Thus, in the NFT world with only $22B market cap, it’s hard to not own a blue-chip project at all costs.

I started to criticize myself on who I was, and who I strive to become. I recalled those vague childhood memories when I hand-drew a whole pile of storybook, mimicking stories happening inside my family. Since when did I lose the ability to confidently create a story without fears that it may not be good enough? Or the first time I played Mole Manor, an online game where I adopted virtual pets and met virtual friends, only later learned the inevitable goal of gaming company is monetization. But now with NFT’s ownership attribute things have changed because buyers/players now can also share the fruit of community growth and brand name. This raises the bar of ownership because people mistakenly think as long as you have the money to buy ETH, NFT is in your hand. It’s not enough. You also need to contribute to the community through social media and give back your own creativity to make it stronger. I’ve seen a coffee shop owner offers to make NFT exclusive merchandises, I can feel the vibe when I saw different fan arts on Twitter. As a result, I redownloaded Procreate and decided to pick up digital drawing after a long time. After all, even doodles are better than nothing right? (Doodle owners no offense, you are doing great) Always keep in mind you don’t have to own it now, but you can contribute now.

NFT democratizes the rights to define the new “fine art”, a privilege once reserved only for the elites. While lowering the bar to participate, it’s still a highly competitive market. A holder needs to have strong conviction in order to survive in the bear market when floor price drops way below cost. An artist can no longer quietly sit in her room and only present the final piece. They need to put themselves out there in the digital world, make collaborative partnership with other artists, and reveals the creation process through social media. It is no easy work and needs the artists and the team to grind their way through, but it’s definitely worth it. If Van Gogh lives in a Web 3.0 world, he wouldn’t need to suicide. Whether it’s the artists themselves, or the subject they are portraying, every piece of treasure can find their true owners who fully appreciate. Fun fact, because I bought Glam Beckett’s Sad Cats NFT, I start to like Sphynx cat?! Can you imagine! I also realized how much bias people tend to hold firm before spending even 5 minutes research and learn about it, I bet you never experience this in the crypto world huh? (oh so many times) What’s sad to me is that many crypto natives still hold biases towards NFT, even though they themselves have grinded through all the suspicion and doubts, keep in mind in the Web 3.0 era, the market will reward those who are extremely open-minded.

On the brink of the world village collapse in physical world, NFT provides a temporary Utopia. You get to see different artists and people show appreciation and kindness to each other. National border is no limit in Web 3. NFT are great digital gifts if you want to onboard your friends and family and spread some love. With all the upcoming mints, reveals, plus roadmap execution, there are so much to look forward to that left no time for depression. One caveat is that keep in mind a thriving industry is very attractive to exploiters. My first day in the NFT world, I got scammed by a fake mint website. Exploiters not only target your wallet, but they also seek your most precious asset, your time. Spent all day retweeting and tagging for a giveaway or scrolling through every channel of the discord are not good for your mental health. After all, NFTs are not as liquid as other assets, patience is the key if you want to stay in the game. Pinning dev teams for updates daily are not reasonable and counter-productive, the best dev team I’ve seen are the ones who set up the stage and allow the community to self-run. Similarly asking why floor is down is the same as asking why stock price or bitcoin price is down, all the answers you could expect are hindsight and incomplete. If you ever feel overwhelmed to keep up with all the discord notifications, consider setting deep focus period every day to spend quality time, research about projects, and learn new skills.

In the next article I will talk about how I pick NFT projects and some of my selection criterias. Stay tuned and check out my twitter @withCocoa1.

One week later, Bitcoin’s price dropped to $17K, I went on to social media and saw a technical analysis influencer concluded we are going downwards to $10K. I would be lying if the idea of selling didn’t come to my mind. Fortunately, my starting balance was so small that even a severe dip in Bitcoin’s price wouldn’t make a huge difference. The next day Bitcoin went above $20K mark and never came back.

Since then my principle of investing in Bitcoin is simple: whenever the price drops more than 15%, I buy. The Fear and Greed Index is a good buying indicator when it’s “Extreme Fear”. My net worth quadrupled in one year. What’s more rewarding than the financial gain is what’s inside the rabbit hole.

Starting with Bitcoin, I inevitably looked into Ethereum. With some road bumps in the beginning, I quickly realized Ethereum is not a competitor of Bitcoin. Quite the opposite, it will only thrive if Bitcoin thrives and it’s a win-win situation for the whole industry. I bought my first ETH on Dec 23 at $578. Now I’m officially on my way down to the rabbit hole. I played with AAVE and Quickswap, learned how to use cold wallet and Metamask, did some yield farming on Curve and DFYN, still kept some of my coin on Celsius and BlockFi. There are a couple of lessons I learned along this journey:

1. Every purchase matters. Do your own research and only make no-regret buy. What I mean by that is even if the price dips half in value and might eventually go to zero, you are not going to sell or blame yourself for that purchase. In addition, a FOMO purchase at the wrong price is going to bring your whole cost basis up and lead to impulse sell in the future, so be responsible for each buy. How do you know you are responsible? Clearly articulate your reason for your family members why the asset has an underlying value and why this is the right place to buy. Then you would know whether you truly know what you are doing or just got euphoria because some influencers said so. I educated my mom to a point she blamed me later why I didn’t buy an ETH for her when it’s < $1k, lol.

2. It is easier to earn money outside of the crypto world than within. Field farming and staking all sound wonderful with lucrative rates, but the risk is hard to ignore plus the high gas fee on Ethereum, and if you are like me with a humble amount to begin with, don’t even bother, just earn money in your day job and buy coins. Although I have to admit playing with those Dapps helped me understand the ecosystem and why ETH matters. Just make sure you are here for the experience, not the crazy yield otherwise you will get disappointed. I still buy NFT for fun but not as a serious investment.

3. Investing is the process of getting to know the asset and getting to know yourself. Keeping a diary of every transaction you made, the reason for buying or selling, and how the asset performs afterward will help you reflect and grow. I still remember how terrified I was when BTC dropped to $30K and I lost half of my unrealized gain. Now seeing a 20% dip in one day doesn’t even lift my eyebrow, that’s just the nature of Bitcoin. And because I know I’m still human and humans are emotional animals, setting limited order works well for me, plus the dip often happens so fast that I don’t want to miss it. Over time I developed a system of principles and stick to it.

4. Get a life. Before investing in Bitcoin, I’m very obsessed with the idea of FIRE(Financial Independence and Retire Early). After all, you only live once and who would want to work forever? But not anymore. I can foresee in the next 10 years, I’m not going to exit the Crypto market, which means two things:

   1. Financial Freedom is not a concern anymore because I will eventually get there.

   2. I will have to endure the extreme volatility for a while. With so many opportunities in this space 24x7, It's easy to get addicted to the chart without realizing time goes by. Those are the moments I feel fortunate to have a job, it not only provides me a stable paycheck to DCA, but also forces me to take a break from crypto.

5. Be patient. Life is a long game. Because Bitcoin is such a rare gem and the price already went up quite a bit, many people tend to trade in and out frequently. Aside from taking the risk of having less and less coin, what’s more disturbing is the emotional turbulence. Many people get upset at Bitcoin and at themselves when we are in red. Ask yourself do you expect your salary to double in 3 months? Do you have any other assets that can generate more risk/reward ratio than Bitcoin? If not, why are you expecting Bitcoin to do better than what it is doing now? When in doubt, look at the history, buy the dip, transfer your coin to a cold wallet and take a break.

Stay rational, stay curious, I will see you in the next post. Let me know in the comment what’s your experience investing in Bitcoin, and if you have a different point of view.

Featured Image by Moose Photos from Pexels