Date: 2026-01-17

Status: 🟢 Bullish (Mid-term) | ⚠ Short-term Overheated

Key Insights:

• Break-even Pivot: STH-MVRV is currently at 0.98. This indicates short-term holders are close to out of the "red," marking a critical psychological shift from capitulation to profit-taking.

• Momentum Surge: The Z-Score stands at 2.0820. Mid-term momentum remains strong, but has cooled from recent highs.

• Risk Radar: Caution! A Z-Score above 2.0 still signals an "overheated" zone, but down from 2.86, the risk has eased. Historical data suggests a high probability of consolidation or a technical pullback at these levels.

🧪 Backtest Edge

"Data doesn't lie; logic beats intuition."

Our STH-MVRV Mid-term Momentum System (>0 Long / <0 Short) continues to prove its edge:

• Profit Factor: 5.12 —— A stellar performance, returning $5.12 for every $1 risked.

• Win Rate: 52%

• Avg. Trade Return: +3.46%

💡 Analyst's Note: The mid-term trend remains robust, but the Z-Score cooling from the peak suggests reduced FOMO risk. Watch the zero-line support; as long as the Z-Score stays positive, any dip is a healthy shakeout.