1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   Coinank data shows that tokens such as SUI, ENA, and DYDX will experience significant unlocking this week. The following are UTC+8 times, including: Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens worth approximately $127 million on July 1st at 8:00, accounting for 1.3% of the circulation;Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens worth approximately $11.29 million on July 2nd at 3:00 PM, accounting for 0.67% of the total circulation;Dydx (DYDX) will unlock 4.17 million tokens worth approximately $2.25 million on July 1st at 8:00, accounting for 0.56% of the total circulation;EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens worth approximately $1.57 million on July 1st at 23:00, accounting for 0.41% of the flow.

We believe that the large-scale unlocking events of tokens such as SUI, ENA, DYDX, and EIGEN this week, although routine market operations, should be cautious of their potential impact. Token unlocking is often seen as a bearish factor, as early investors or team members may sell to cash out, increase market supply, and trigger short-term downward pressure on prices; Especially in high volatility environments, such events can amplify market sentiment fluctuations and lead to liquidity shortages. However, the unlocking ratio this time is generally low, accounting for only 1.3% of the highest circulation and 0.41% of the lowest. Historical data shows that small-scale unlocking has limited impact on the overall market and is often buffered by project fundamentals or external factors. As a leader in decentralized derivatives, DYDX's independent chain ecosystem has strong performance, high staking rate, and a shift in revenue distribution mechanism towards community holders, which may enhance long-term confidence and partially offset unlocking pressure. In contrast, although SUI is positioned as a high-performance public chain, its unlocking value is relatively high (about $127 million), and it needs to pay attention to its market capacity; However, the unlocking scale of ENA and EIGEN is relatively small, and their impact may be even weaker. Investors are advised to prioritize the technological progress and ecological health of the project, rather than short-term events. In the current market environment, unlocking events may trigger local fluctuations, but systemic risks are controllable, and robust projects such as DYDX are expected to demonstrate resilience.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market was divided by conceptual sectors, with only Binance Smart Chain, AI Big Data, Gaming, Fan Tokens, and RWA achieving net inflow of funds, while Launchpool had a smaller outflow scale. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 500 market capitalization), with tokens such as EOS, CTK, PENGU, MOVE, SEI, and MOG showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. According to CoinAnk data, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.22 billion in the previous week, lasting for three consecutive weeks. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest weekly net inflow is the Blackrock Bitcoin ETFiBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.31 billion. Currently, the total historical net inflow of IBIT has reached $52.31 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow in a single week last week was Grayscale ETFGBTC, with a net outflow of $5.69 million. Currently, the GBTC has a total historical net outflow of $23.25 billion. We believe that this reflects the continued increasing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, supporting its positioning as a speculative asset, where capital inflows primarily come from expectations of high returns rather than actual payment purposes. The overall net inflow indicates stable market confidence, which may drive up demand for Bitcoin and stabilize prices, while the outflow of GBTC highlights some investors' profit taking behavior. For the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, this strengthens its role as a diversified investment tool, which may drive short-term price increases. Although there are fluctuations in the market (such as a net outflow of $2.61 billion in February 2025), the sustained trend of net inflows suggests that the Bitcoin market is moving towards efficiency, and institutional involvement has accelerated this process. However, historical data warns of high volatility risks, and investors need to pay attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to CoinAnk's clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $112000, setting a new historical high, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $3.27 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $104500, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $6.75 billion. Considering that BTC has been fluctuating at a high level around $100000 to $110000 for almost two months and is also approaching a turning point. We believe that the liquidation intensity is not the actual amount to be liquidated, but rather a measure of the potential intensity of market liquidity shocks after prices touch by comparing the density of adjacent price liquidation clusters. Current data shows that if BTC breaks through $112000 and reaches a historic high, the clearing intensity of $3.27 billion in short orders may trigger a "short squeeze" effect - a large number of short positions forced to close will accelerate the influx of buying orders, forming a positive feedback loop to drive prices soaring, which is consistent with market behavior when key resistance levels are broken in historical data. On the contrary, if it falls below $104500, the multi order liquidation intensity of $6.75 billion exposes the vulnerability of high leverage long positions, which may trigger a "long kill long" chain reaction, leading to panic selling and amplifying short-term downside risks, highlighting the extreme game of the market at key price levels. Overall, this threshold range reflects the deep confrontation between long and short positions, and investors need to be alert to market fluctuations caused by liquidity waves and control leverage reasonably to avoid stampede risks.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. CoinAnk data shows that: June 30th, Monday, Chicago PMI for June in the United States; Binance Wallet launches exclusive TGE for NodeOps (SIDE); On Tuesday, July 1st, the final value of the US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs Job Vacancies, and May Construction Expenditure Monthly Rate in the United States;On Wednesday, July 2nd, the ADP employment figures for June in the United States;On Thursday, July 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims and May trade account for the week ending June 21st in the United States; The US June non farm payroll report and June unemployment rate will be released in advance; On Friday, July 4th, the final value of the June S&P Global Services PMI in the United States; June ISM Non Manufacturing PMI and May Factory Order Monthly Rate in the United States; Musk: Grok 4 is scheduled to be released after July 4th. From June 30th to July 6th, numerous officials from the Federal Reserve will give speeches; Trump announces that the US will hold talks with Iran this week.

We believe that the June Chicago PMI and the July 1st ISM Manufacturing PMI form a leading indicator combination, and caution should be exercised against signals of "temporary improvement" in the manufacturing industry. If the data exceeds expectations or confirms the production recovery driven by supply chain repair; If lower than expected, strengthen concerns about stagflation. The service sector PMI (July 4th) needs more attention, as history shows that its unexpected contraction has caused severe market volatility, and the current service sector has made a significant contribution to inflation stickiness.Deepening contradictions in the labor market structure: Combining job vacancies in JOLTs with ADP employment, if job vacancies continue to be higher than the current ratio of 1.2, it will highlight the problem of labor market mismatch. Special attention should be paid to the increasing risk of occupational mismatch among the higher education population, as well as the shift in the proportion of "no vacancy recruitment" exceeding 16%. The early release of non farm payroll data may imply volatility risks, and it is necessary to focus on analyzing the transmission of wage growth rate to the Federal Reserve's policies.Trump's prediction of US Iran talks, coupled with intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials, may amplify market sensitivity. History has shown that political cycles may distort the interpretation of economic data, and if geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, they will strengthen cost pressures on the service industry. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may become risk appetite regulators, but caution should be taken against the liquidity siphon effect.The core contradiction lies in the fact that if the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI falls, coupled with non farm payroll growth exceeding expectations, it may force the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the political cycle, exacerbating the "tightening recession" expectation game. It is recommended to use a dynamic mismatch model to track cross departmental data divergence and be alert to the combination risk of "high vacancy rate+low turnover rate" in the job market.In the short term (data intensive period will amplify volatility, if non farm payroll exceeds 200000 or ISM service PMI>55, it may trigger "hawkish panic" and provide key support for BTC testing; On the contrary, if employment weakens (ADP<150000), it will boost expectations of interest rate cuts and push up prices. The medium-term trend shows that institutional entry still constitutes support, but geopolitical variables such as tariff policies and US Iran talks may become new sources of disturbance. BTC may experience high volatility this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pricing changes in the market before and after the non farm payroll announcement regarding the probability of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut. This will become a key catalyst for directional choices.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, based on the latest on chain data, the group of long-term Bitcoin holders has achieved a record breaking net increase of 800000 BTC holdings in the past 30 days, far exceeding the historical average. Similar scale monthly increases have only occurred six times before, including mid 2021 and late 2024, all accompanied by significant upward trends in subsequent prices. Currently, the cost range for long-term holders is concentrated between $95000 and $107000, while the average cost for short-term holders is around $93000. At the same time, the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 68% of the total circulation, and early miners have shown strong reluctance to sell, selling only a small amount of BTC during the year, highlighting the tight supply side of the market. This increase in holdings reflects the firm confidence of long-term investors in BTC as a value storage asset. Historical patterns show that similar scale accumulations often indicate turning points in the price cycle, possibly due to market supply-demand imbalances and strengthened investor expectations. The holding cost range can serve as a key support level, and when the price approaches this level, a decrease in selling pressure may boost the upward trend. In terms of the impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, increasing holdings has reduced the supply of circulation, combined with a reluctance to sell mentality, which may exacerbate scarcity and push prices to break through historical highs; However, if the macro environment deteriorates or short-term holder cost pressures intensify, the market may experience volatility, but overall, a structure dominated by long-term holders helps stabilize the market and support the continuation of the bull market.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, the price of Bitcoin remains around $107000, and the ratio of holdings between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is showing a rebound trend. Looking back at past market cycles, similar accumulation stages usually last for 4 to 8 weeks. If combined with a conservative 1.6-fold increase prediction model, Bitcoin's future price is expected to further rise. Historical data shows that a significant increase in LTH holdings often serves as a precursor to price breakthroughs, for example, at the levels of $28000 and $60000, an increase in LTH holdings catalyzed prices to jump to $60000 and $100000, respectively. From the perspective of research interpretation, the growth of LTH/STH ratio reflects the restoration of market confidence. LTH continues to attract funds and reduce circulation supply, supporting the upward potential of Bitcoin. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that key resistance levels such as $99900 may trigger profit taking, and strong buying and selling pressure are needed to digest and maintain the upward trend. If the demand for STH can match the supply of LTH, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $100000 mark, thereby driving the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market. The historical cycle analysis once pointed to a target of $126000, implying potential upside potential, but external risks such as regulatory changes or liquidity fluctuations need to be considered. For the cryptocurrency market, a strong breakthrough in Bitcoin will boost the trading volume of altcoins and derivatives, strengthen bull market expectations, but short-term downside risks such as miners selling or macro factors need to be closely monitored.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, there was a significant decline in BTC network computing power in late June 2025, mainly due to the US military's airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities affecting the power system, leading to a significant decline in mining activities in Iran, which accounts for over 3% of the global market share. The interruption of cheap electricity caused mining machines to go offline, which, although not directly targeted at mining, exposed the potential weaknesses of the Bitcoin network in geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, a decrease in computing power may weaken transaction confirmation efficiency and affect security, but historical experience shows that adjusting mining difficulty will attract miners to return and recover relatively quickly. Such events highlight the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, which is resilient but susceptible to external disturbances. For the cryptocurrency market, BTC prices are under short-term pressure, falling below $100000 and triggering large-scale liquidation. However, the rise in mining company stock prices reflects the market's recognition of system resistance. The rebound of risk appetite in the Middle East may bring buying opportunities, but investors need to be alert to the continued volatility caused by the escalation of conflicts and avoid leverage risks. Overall, the long-term trend of BTC still depends on fundamentals rather than a single geopolitical event.

BTC K-line analysis: According to CoinAnk AI intelligent analysis, the market analysis report is as follows: Main support level: 100941.07 USDT Main pressure level: 107443.47 USDT Current trend: Excessive volatility

Comprehensive technical indicators: Moving average system: bullish arrangement MA5（104611.17）> MA10（102955.77）> MA20（102485.18）， The short-term moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating a strong short-term trend. But MA120 (105232.55) is slightly higher than the current price, so we need to be wary of long-term moving average suppression. MACD: Golden Fork Running DIF (130.37) crosses DEA (432.13), and the bar (562.50) continues to enlarge, indicating an increase in bullish momentum. BOLL: The price is close to the upper track The current price (105167.70) is close to the upper limit (106053.78), with a% B value of 0.84%, indicating that the price is in a strong range, but caution should be exercised against upper limit pressure. RSI: Neutral to Strong RSI6 (71.45) is close to the overbought zone, while RSI12 (60.97) and RSI14 (59.01) are neutral and strong. There may be short-term pullback demand, but it is not severely overbought. KDJ: Golden Fork Running K（81.91）> D（75.99）> J（93.75）， Short term overbought, but the trend is still bullish.

Indicator data: Funding rate: 0.00436100% The rate is neutral, with no extreme long short sentiment (BTC rate absolute value less than 0.02%), and the market sentiment is stable. Changes in trading volume: Recently, the trading volume has increased in the past 4 hours, accompanied by price increases, indicating good coordination between volume and price. However, attention should be paid to the contraction of some high-level candlesticks, and caution should be exercised against short-term profit taking. Capital flow data: The net inflow of 24-hour contract funds (900401593.66 USDT) is significant, but the net outflow of 4H funds (266237913.10 USDT) shows a divergence in short-term funds. The net outflow of 24H spot funds (119521511.46 USDT) indicates that some funds have left the market, and a comprehensive judgment should be made based on the flow of contract funds.

Analysis results: Direction: Be cautious and go long The short-term trend is bullish, but close to the pressure level (107443.47) and RSI is overbought in the short term, so we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback.Steady: Wait for the pullback to MA5 support and build positions in batches. Stop loss setting: 3% -5%, stop loss below MA10. Target price range: 107443.47 (first resistance level) to 109997.93 (second resistance level), corresponding to a yield of 2.2% -4.6%. If it breaks through 107443.47, it can be held until 109997.93. Reminder: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, in the past month, global cryptocurrency funds have performed outstandingly, with nearly 300 funds attracting over $7 billion in net capital inflows, driving the overall asset management scale to break through the historical high of $167 billion, marking an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market. During the same period, traditional assets such as stock funds suffered a net loss of $5.9 billion, and gold funds also experienced their first capital outflow in 15 months, highlighting that investors are viewing cryptocurrency assets as strategic tools for diversified investment portfolios rather than simply high-risk speculative products. This reflects the need for hedging against the weakness of the US dollar and global economic uncertainty. This capital shift reveals that cryptocurrency is gradually becoming the mainstream allocation, and we believe that the inflow trend will continue but tend to stabilize, indicating an increase in market maturity and helping to enhance the attractiveness of cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge tool. For the cryptocurrency market, this phenomenon may accelerate the entry of institutional funds, enhance overall liquidity and price stability, but high volatility and regulatory uncertainty still pose risks, and attention should be paid to short-term fluctuations that may be triggered by policy changes.

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   According to Coinank data, APT, STRK, IMX and other tokens will experience significant unlocking this week, including: Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 12:00 noon on June 12th, with a ratio of 1.79% to the current flow and a value of approximately 52.7 million US dollars;Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8am on June 15th, with a ratio of 3.79% to current flow and a value of approximately $16.6 million;Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8am on June 13th, with a ratio of 1.33% to current flow and a value of approximately $12.8 million;Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8pm on June 9th, with a ratio of 1.96% to current flow and a value of approximately $7.1 million;BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 42.89 million tokens at 8am on June 12th, with a ratio of 10.47% to current flow and a value of approximately $4.6 million;Delysium (AGI) will unlock approximately 69.03 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 11th, with a ratio of 4.00% to current flow and a value of approximately $3.8 million;Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock approximately 296 million tokens at 8am on June 15th, with a ratio of 0.88% to current flow and a value of approximately $4.3 million;Cookie DAO (COOKIE) will unlock approximately 13.88 million tokens at 8am on June 13th, with a ratio of 2.54% to current flow and a value of approximately $2.9 million;Io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 3.22 million tokens at 8pm on June 11th, with a current flow ratio of 1.98% and a value of approximately $2.5 million.

We believe that this unlocking event involves multiple counterfeit tokens with a total value of over 80 million US dollars, which may cause downward pressure on the market in the short term. APT, STRK, and IMX are key unlocking targets, and although their newly added supply accounts for a relatively low proportion of circulation (APT 1.79%, STRK 3.79%, IMX 1.33%), historical data shows that such events are often seen as "negative signals" because early investors may sell for cash, exacerbating market volatility. For example, Starknet's STRK unlocking once eased the impact due to plan adjustments, but the release of 127 million tokens this time may still suppress the upward space of prices. At the same time, the unlocking ratio of tokens such as BB is relatively high (such as BB reaching 10.47%), and the risk is more significant, which may trigger local selling pressure. From a macro perspective, the overall unlocking scale of tokens in June was huge (evidence shows over 650 million US dollars), coupled with the current insufficient liquidity of altcoins. Investors need to be alert to short-term pullback risks and pay attention to the market absorption capacity after unlocking. Suggest monitoring real-time price changes to avoid chasing after high prices.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, due to the overall downward trend of the market, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been divided by conceptual sectors, and only Binance Smart Chain has achieved a net inflow of funds, Launchpool、RWA、 Fan tokens, Storage, and BRC20 have smaller outflow scales. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 200 market values), with tokens such as RVN, TITAN, AB, ICX, and SPX showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. According to CoinAnk data, there was a net outflow of $131.6 million from US Bitcoin spot ETFs last week, including a net inflow of $81.1 million from BlackRock IBIT; Fidelity FBTC net outflow of $167.7 million; ARKB had a net outflow of $24.5 million. The total on chain holdings of the US spot Bitcoin ETF have exceeded 1.1 million BTC, reaching approximately 1.184 million BTC, accounting for 5.96% of the current BTC supply. The on chain holdings value has reached approximately $125.8 billion. The continuous inflow of US spot Ethereum ETF has reached 15 days. The continuous inflow since May 16th has now accumulated to $837.5 million, which is approximately 25% of the total net inflow of $3.32 billion since the launch of the spot Ethereum ETF in July 2024. If this pattern continues in the next week, an additional $162.5 million in inflows will bring the total amount of this continuous inflow to $1 billion.In contrast, the inflow momentum of spot Bitcoin ETFs was broken on May 29th, with a fund outflow of $346.8 million on the same day. Since then, the flow of funds has been fluctuating, showing an alternating pattern of inflows and outflows. We believe that the cryptocurrency ETF market has shown significant differentiation in recent times. The Bitcoin spot ETF fund flow has experienced a volatility reversal: last week, there was an overall net outflow of $131.6 million, which is consistent with the market's cautious sentiment reflected by the single week outflow record of $3.2 billion set in August 2024. However, it is worth noting that BlackRock IBIT still achieved a net inflow of $81.1 million against the trend, highlighting the hedging tendency of institutional funds in top products. The current holdings of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States reach 1.184 million BTC (accounting for 5.96% of the total supply), an increase of 87% compared to the holdings of 632000 BTC at the beginning of 2025, indicating a continued strengthening of the long-term capital accumulation effect. On the other hand, Ethereum spot ETFs have shown strong momentum: the cumulative net inflow for 15 consecutive days has reached 837.5 million US dollars, accounting for 25% of the total historical net inflow of 3.32 billion US dollars in this category. If this growth rate is maintained, it may exceed the milestone of 1 billion US dollars this week. This sustained ability to attract funds validates Standard Chartered Bank's prediction model that the Ethereum ETF may introduce $15-45 billion in funds within 12 months after approval. Of particular note is that the divergence in fund flows may reflect a shift in market expectations: the Bitcoin ETF entered a period of volatility after a single day outflow of $346.8 million on May 29th, while the stable inflow of the Ethereum ETF may indicate that investors are turning to the staking potential of ETH and the $8000 price target. Deep data reveals two major trends: firstly, the proportion of Bitcoin ETF holdings has jumped from 3.2% at the beginning of 2025 to 5.96%, indicating that institutional holdings are accelerating the locking of circulating chips; Secondly, the continuous inflow of Ethereum ETF has set a record, which is in sharp contrast to the fund rupture of Bitcoin ETF, and may push the ETH/BTC exchange rate into a new equilibrium range.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to the CoinAnk clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $110000, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $5.27 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $100300, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $5.37 billion. We believe that the current Bitcoin market is facing a critical price threshold game, and the leverage risk of both long and short sides is significantly amplified. If BTC breaks through $110000, it will trigger a clearing intensity of up to $5.27 billion in short positions, which may trigger a "short squeeze" effect - the concentrated liquidation of short positions will form a liquidity wave, further pushing up prices and strengthening the upward trend. On the contrary, if it falls below $100300, the multi order liquidation intensity of $5.37 billion indicates the presence of dense leveraged long positions below. Once the support level is broken, it may trigger a chain liquidation of "long kill long", leading to short-term liquidity depletion and amplifying downside risks. Special attention should be paid to several underlying characteristics: Currently, risk exposure is expanding, and compared to early data (such as breaking through $104000 in January 2025 and triggering only 260 million short clearing), the current clearing scale is growing exponentially, reflecting a synchronous increase in market leverage and volatility sensitivity; The liquidation intensity is not an exact amount, but a measure of the market reaction intensity after a price is touched by comparing the density of liquidation clusters at adjacent price points; Regarding the phenomenon of threshold drift, the key clearing threshold shifts upwards with the price center (such as falling below $80000 in April, corresponding to over 4.5 billion clearing orders, and rising to the $100000 range in June), indicating a dynamic adjustment in market risk structure. Currently, Bitcoin is in a highly leveraged sensitive area, with $110000 and $100000 forming a key defensive line for long and short positions. Any breakthrough in any direction could exacerbate short-term volatility due to a wave of forced liquidation.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. CoinAnk data shows that: June 9th: Trump will hold a meeting with China in London; The US Senate may vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill as early as June 9th; The US SEC will hold a roundtable conference on encryption topics; On June 10th, the US House of Representatives plans to review the CLARITY Act on the structure of the cryptocurrency market; June 11th: The United States will release May CPI data at 20:30.

We believe that the current macroeconomic situation presents a dual game of policy and data: Geopolitical and policy intensive period overlapping: Trump plans to hold a high-level meeting between China and the United States in London, coinciding with the accelerated push for cryptocurrency legislation in the US Congress (Senate vote on GENIUS stablecoin bill, House review of CLARITY bill), reflecting the strategic intention of coordinating digital finance regulation and trade policy. The SEC held a roundtable conference on encryption at the same time, highlighting the proactive involvement of regulatory agencies in emerging financial forms. Inflation data becomes a watershed for the market: The May CPI forecast shows that overall inflation has slightly increased to 2.4% year-on-year (previously 2.3%), while core inflation remains at 2.8%, suggesting that the deflation process may come to a halt. The Cleveland Fed model predicts that core commodity inflation may peak this autumn, but the "pause in equivalent tariffs" has lowered and delayed the peak forecast compared to before. This data will directly test the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts, if the actual data exceeds expectations or triggers a reassessment of the monetary policy path. Structural differentiation of market sentiment: Despite the US stock market hitting a three-month high (led by tech stocks), stock funds have experienced three consecutive weeks of capital outflows, reflecting investors taking profits under policy uncertainty. The volatility intensified during the golden week but closed higher, supported by the central bank's increased holdings (such as China's continuous 7-month increase) and geopolitical risks. Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, highlighting the tension between political forces and monetary authorities. In summary, the core variable for this week lies in the interaction between actual CPI data and legislative processes: if inflation rises beyond expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance and exacerbate asset volatility; The progress of the encryption bill is related to the reshaping of the global competitiveness of the US dollar stablecoin.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, institutional investors' allocation to Bitcoin significantly shrank in the first quarter of 2025, with a decrease of $6.2 billion or 23% compared to the previous quarter. This is the first quarterly decline since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market dynamics indicate that this capital withdrawal is the result of a combination of price corrections and long-term holders' cash out behavior. It is worth noting that the growth momentum in the previous quarter mainly came from listed companies including Bitcoin in their balance sheet allocation, rather than professional asset management institutions allocating it through ETF channels, reflecting the characteristics of market participants transitioning from short-term arbitrage to strategic reserves. Deep analysis shows that this capital outflow is closely related to the drastic changes in the macro environment. At the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin faced multiple pressures: Trump's tariff policies sparked economic concerns, the $1.5 billion Bitget exchange hack incident shook market confidence, and the large-scale liquidation of "cash arbitrage" trades triggered a historic outflow of ETF funds. Despite the intense short-term fluctuations, there are still positive signals of structural changes - the number of institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs increased by 30% against the trend in the quarter, indicating that the long-term allocation logic has not fundamentally shaken. From the perspective of market impact, ETFs, as a compliant channel for traditional capital entry, have formed a strong correlation between their fund flows and the price of Bitcoin. Although this adjustment exacerbates short-term fluctuations, it may promote the establishment of a healthier value discovery mechanism in the market. Historical experience has shown that institutional funds often flow back in a more sustainable manner after market consolidation.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, after the peak of Bitcoin's computing power across the entire network, some miners passively reduced their Bitcoin reserves due to a surge in operating costs, resulting in short-term market selling pressure. However, historical patterns show that such selling driven by miner pressure often corresponds to the construction of long-term market bottom areas. The current miner's position index has fallen back to the historical low range of 0.49, combined with the latest buy signal triggered by the Hash Ribbons indicator, indicating that the market clearing process is approaching completion. This indicator effectively captures the turning point of miners' operational pressure by monitoring the cross changes of the 30 day and 60 day moving averages of computing power. Historical data shows that its signal often accompanies a significant price rebound cycle. From the perspective of market impact, although short-term miner selling exacerbates liquidity pressure, it is essentially a passive supply release. When the continuous high operation of computing power leads to the exit of inefficient miners, the cost structure of mining across the entire network can be optimized, which in turn solidifies the bottom support for the market. Historical cases have shown (such as a 260% increase after the indicator was triggered in 2019) that hash band buy signals often lead the start of a new upward trend. At the current stage, it not only reflects the pain of short-term pressure on miners, but also highlights the positive signal of market supply-demand rebalancing - as inefficient production capacity is cleared, coupled with the resonance between the position index hitting bottom and on chain indicators, the cryptocurrency market may be breeding important allocation opportunities.

Macro interpretation: The ongoing turbulence in US fiscal policy is becoming a catalyst for the rise of Bitcoin. Musk recently fiercely criticized the "Beautiful Act" supported by Trump on social media, calling it "ridiculous and full of political manipulation", and warning that the bill will skyrocket the budget deficit to $2.5 trillion, leaving American citizens burdened with unbearable debt. Even pointing out that interest payments already account for 25% of government revenue, if deficit spending continues, fiscal revenue will only be enough to cover interest payments, and other areas such as social security, healthcare, and defense will be unsustainable. The rapid confrontation between Musk and Trump, former allies, reflects the intensification of internal policy differences. Although the White House denies that the bill will increase the deficit, Coinbase CEO's warning is more thought-provoking: if the US Congress fails to address the $37 trillion debt issue, Bitcoin may replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. In fact, states such as New Hampshire and Arizona have started reserving Bitcoin to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, and six Nobel economists are also concerned that the bill will exacerbate debt and inequality. These events are not isolated, combined with the unexpected surge in job vacancies in the United States in April to 7.39 million (far exceeding the expected 7.1 million), which appears to support the Federal Reserve's claim of a "good job market," but economists generally warn that Trump's tariff policies may lead to a weak labor market in the coming months. This fiscal pressure and debt risk are driving institutional investors to view Bitcoin as a safe haven, similar to the role of gold in inflationary times, thereby enhancing the long-term demand foundation for BTC. The Bitcoin market itself is experiencing a critical turning point, with both short-term volatility and long-term potential coexisting. According to CoinAnk data, after Bitcoin broke through a historical high, investors' profit taking activities significantly increased, with an average profit of about 16% per BTC. Less than 8% of trading days can bring higher returns, indicating that the market has entered a clear stage of cashing out. At the same time, BTC prices fell to a low of $103000 in early June, with fierce long short competition. Currently, BTC is in a range of fluctuations, but the market is closely watching this Friday's non farm payroll report data. Economists predict that the addition of non-agricultural employment will only be 125000, lower than the "breakeven growth rate" of 153000. If the data is weak, it may push up the unemployment rate and strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. Interest rate cuts usually benefit risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, but short-term uncertainty still brings volatility. It is worth noting that the rise of tokenized Bitcoin is expanding the practicality of BTC: WBTC and cbBTC have locked in over 172000 bitcoins (worth approximately $18 billion), with WBTC accounting for 81%, dominating Ethereum DeFi trading, while Coinbase's cbBTC performs outstandingly on the Base chain, with an average of 7000 active addresses per day. Although these innovations carry centralization risks, they connect the stored value function of Bitcoin with the programmable economy, which may attract more institutional capital inflows. The overall cryptocurrency market is not a smooth road, and regulatory uncertainty and weak counterfeit currencies are differentiating investment opportunities. The SEC's political manipulation of the CLARITY Act has raised concerns, with Democrats accusing it of refusing to provide critical technical analysis while leaking information to Republicans. The bill aims to create a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, but may affect traditional securities markets and create technological loopholes. Maxine Waters plans to send a letter to the SEC Chairman requesting transparency, and the bill will enter the committee marking phase on June 10th. If the regulatory framework becomes clearer, it may boost market confidence, but the current uncertainty has dampened the support of some pro crypto Democratic lawmakers and increased market volatility risks. Meanwhile, the performance of altcoins has been disappointing, with institutional reports indicating that despite BTC reaching new highs, altcoins are constrained by token unlocking and a lack of new narratives. The old hype model has failed at a 4.5% yield on US Treasury bonds, and Ethereum has shifted towards a "staking for moderate returns" phase. Driving the surge of altcoins only requires a few large purchases, but maintaining the upward trend requires widespread participation from retail investors - the argument of the "altcoin outbreak season" in the past year has repeatedly failed, highlighting the concentration of funds flowing into core assets such as BTC. The disagreements among Trump related cryptocurrency companies have added to the chaos: Magic Eden has launched a digital wallet named after the Trump brand, but its eldest son denies any association and claims that WLFI will promote an official wallet. This infighting may weaken market trust in celebrity endorsed projects and highlight the need for a more mature foundation in the cryptocurrency industry. Overall, the impact of these events on the cryptocurrency market and BTC can be summarized as' short-term pressure, long-term bullish '. On the one hand, the inflation of the US fiscal deficit and the intensification of debt risks are accelerating Bitcoin's "safe haven" narrative, attracting state-level reserves and institutional allocations, which may push BTC to challenge the high of $120000 by the end of 2024. The rise of tokenized Bitcoin further strengthens demand, and if the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is realized, it will reduce financing costs and benefit the entire cryptocurrency market. On the other hand, regulatory uncertainty (such as controversies over SEC bills) and infighting within Trump's entity may suppress innovation and trigger short-term selling pressure, particularly affecting altcoins and emerging projects. Investors need to be cautious: if the employment report falls short of expectations, it may exacerbate BTC volatility; Due to the lack of a new narrative, altcoins may further concentrate funds towards BTC, leading to intensified market differentiation. In terms of operation, it is recommended to invest in BTC at key support levels and pay attention to regulatory and tokenization developments (such as the expansion of cbBTC on the Base chain), while avoiding high unlocking pressure on altcoins. In short, Bitcoin is moving from the periphery to the mainstream, but this fiscal storm reminds us that the maturity of the cryptocurrency market still takes time, and the rise of BTC will be the most worthwhile turning point to bet on in the debt era.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, Bitcoin's breakthrough in historical peaks triggered a significant wave of profit redemption. On chain data shows that the average profit per BTC reached $16800 (about 16%), exceeding 92% of historical trading days, reflecting investors' rational position adjustment. This round of profit taking presents a structured feature - the redemption ratio of long-term holders (LTH) accounts for only 3.2% of the position, while the selling pressure of short-term holders (STH) accounts for 67%, indicating that there is no panic exit in the market. The current profit taking has some impact on the cryptocurrency market, with technical support levels (corresponding to $2.8 billion in open interest options contracts) suppressing the risk of a deep pullback; Secondly, the Miner's Position Index (MPI) rebounded to -0.35, in line with the net inflow of ETFs, building a new balance of funds; Finally, the growth rate of stablecoin market value is positively correlated with the scale of selling pressure (correlation coefficient 0.78), indicating that profitable funds may flow back into the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Historical data shows that the probability of reaching a new high within 60 days after a mild profit phase is 73%, but caution should be exercised about the risks in the derivatives market - the deviation between open futures contracts and funding rates of -0.02%, or the amplification of short-term volatility to ± 8%. Against the backdrop of a relatively large proportion of Bitcoin's market value, small and medium-sized tokens may take the opportunity to initiate a market rotation to supplement their gains.

catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   Coinank data shows that this week ENA, EIGEN, TAIKO, and others will experience a one-time large-scale unlocking of tokens, including: Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3pm on June 2nd, with a ratio of 0.70% to the current flow and a value of approximately $12.5 million;Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3am on June 4th, with a ratio of 0.42% to the current flow and a value of approximately $1.7 million;Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 4th, with a ratio of 1.15% to the current flow and a value of approximately $1.1 million;IOTA will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 4th, with a ratio of 0.23% to the current flow and a value of approximately 1.6 million US dollars;Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 81.55 million tokens at 8pm on June 5th, with a ratio of 69.37% to the current flow and a value of approximately $46.9 million;Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 6th, with a ratio of 17.57% to the current flow and a value of approximately 3.7 million US dollars;Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 7th, with a ratio of 22.51% to the current flow and a value of approximately 6.1 million US dollars. More than $2.7 billion in tokens will be unlocked in June, with SUI ($206.33 million), ZRO ($64.29 million), and APT ($58.52 million) being the main players.

We believe that the large-scale unlocking events of multiple tokens this week need to be comprehensively evaluated based on market supply and demand as well as project fundamentals. Firstly, Taiko (TAIKO) has the most prominent unlocking scale, with 81.55 million tokens released, accounting for 69.37% of the current circulation and worth approximately $46.9 million. The influx of such a high proportion of circulation into the market at once may trigger significant selling pressure, especially since its ecological applications have not yet fully taken shape, there is a lack of sufficient demand to undertake in the short term, and the risk of price decline is relatively high. Secondly, although Ethena (ENA) has only unlocked 0.7% of its token economy, based on historical data, there is a structural contradiction in its token economy: the protocol relies on token incentives to maintain the scale of stablecoin USDe, but ENA itself lacks an actual income distribution mechanism, resulting in inflationary pressure and insufficient value support. In addition, the unlocking ratios of Neon (NEON) and Spectral (SPEC) both exceed 15%, and their market capitalization is relatively small with low market liquidity, which may amplify price fluctuations. Overall, the impact of token unlocking on the market needs to be viewed in a hierarchical manner: high proportion unlocking projects such as TAIKO face short-term liquidity shocks, while projects such as ENA, although having a lower proportion, are constrained by long-term deflation mechanisms and need to be vigilant about the chain reactions after unlocking. In addition, the current cryptocurrency market is facing a background of policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve and tightening macro funding, coupled with a total unlocking scale of over 369 million US dollars this week. The market needs to digest multiple selling pressures, and investor sentiment may lean towards caution. In the future, we need to pay attention to the actual flow of unlocked tokens and the progress of the project's ecological construction to determine whether the market can effectively absorb the supply increment.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, due to the overall downward trend of the market, the cryptocurrency market has achieved net inflows of funds in the past week, divided by conceptual sectors such as the Arbitrarum ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, and Binance Smart Chain, Launchpool、 Fan tokens have a smaller outflow scale. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 200 market values), with MASK, ZEN, SPX, IOTX, AB and other tokens showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. CoinAnk data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $267.64 million yesterday, Monday of this week. Last trading day (May 27th to May 30th Eastern Time), the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $157 million for the week. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest weekly net inflow last week was the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $584 million. Currently, the total historical net inflow of IBIT has reached $48.57 billion. Next is the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC, with a weekly net inflow of $19.81 million. Currently, the total historical net inflow of BTC has reached $1.4 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETFs with the highest net outflows in a single week last week were Ark Invest and 21Shares ETF ARKB, with a weekly net outflow of $282 million. Currently, ARKB's historical total net inflow has reached $2.44 billion. We believe that in early June, the US Bitcoin spot ETF showed a significant differentiation pattern, reflecting the adjustment of institutional investors' strategies and changes in market sentiment. Although BlackRock IBIT maintained its leading position with a net inflow of $584 million per week, the overall market began to experience net outflows ($157 million last week and $267 million on Monday), indicating an increased risk aversion for short-term funds. The historical total net inflow of BlackRock IBIT has reached 48.57 billion US dollars, and its sustained ability to attract funds is due to low fees (0.12% -0.25%) and institutional fund allocation needs, especially the increase in IBIT holdings within BlackRock's funds, which has strengthened market confidence. However, compared to the high inflow of $842 million in previous weeks, the recent slowdown in growth rate may suggest that some investors are taking profits when Bitcoin prices are high. Grayscale achieved a net inflow of $19.81 million through BTC mini trust, which may be related to its reduced fees (1.5% to 0.3%) and product restructuring, but this scale is far from enough to reverse the long-term outflow trend of GBTC (historical net outflow exceeding $18.8 billion). In contrast, Ark Invest's ARKB had a net outflow of $282 million in a single week, highlighting the vulnerability of small and medium-sized institutional ETFs during liquidity tightening periods. Their high fees (0.21%) and shrinking market share exacerbated capital outflows. It is worth noting that the flow of ETF funds forms a negative feedback loop with the price of Bitcoin. The current continuous net outflow may reflect a repricing of market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, or be related to regulatory developments such as the SEC's tightening of custody reviews. If the macro environment does not improve, short-term capital outflow pressure may further suppress the price of Bitcoin, prompting investors to turn to top ETF products with more cost advantages.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to CoinAnk's clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $112000 and reaches a historical high, the cumulative clearing intensity of mainstream CEX short orders will reach $9.6 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $100600, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $5.43 billion. We believe that the current Bitcoin clearing threshold and intensity distribution reveal the risk structure of the derivatives market. According to data from June 2025, if BTC breaks through $112000, the liquidation intensity of short orders will reach $9.6 billion, an increase of more than 10 times compared to the intensity of $842 million corresponding to $88000 in March 2025, indicating an exponential expansion of market leverage and risk exposure. On the contrary, falling below $100600 will trigger a liquidation of $5.43 billion in long positions, which is lower than the size of short positions in the same period, but still significantly higher than early data, reflecting that the dense accumulation of long positions at key support levels may exacerbate downside risks. The core of liquidation intensity lies in the potential intensity of liquidity shocks, rather than the actual amount to be liquidated. High intensity short clearing may trigger a "short squeeze" effect, where prices break through resistance levels and trigger a chain stop loss, driving the market to accelerate upward; However, clearing multiple orders can easily form a negative feedback loop of panic selling. The current threshold difference between long and short positions has narrowed to about $11400, highlighting the intense game in the price sensitive range. Any breakthrough in any direction may result in violent fluctuations due to liquidity waves. It is worth noting that the dynamic adjustment of market leverage structure has led to a continuous upward shift in the clearing threshold. Compared to the 260 million short orders intensity corresponding to the breakthrough of 104000 US dollars in January 2025, the current data has increased by 37 times. This not only reflects the improvement of investors' risk appetite, but also implies that systematic risk accumulation requires high vigilance. It is recommended to pay attention to the liquidity verification after the price breakthrough. If the actual liquidation volume is significantly lower than the predicted value, or indicates a deep improvement in the market, otherwise it may trigger price overshoot.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. CoinAnk data shows that: On June 3rd, Binance Alpha and Binance Contracts will be launched on Bondex (BDXN); Pledge agreement YieldNest plans to launch TGE;

On June 5th, the SEC will hold a conference on emerging trends in asset management, with representatives from institutions such as BlackRock attending; On June 6th, the United States will release quarterly adjusted non farm payroll and unemployment rate data for May. From June 2nd to June 8th, numerous Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches one after another.

We believe that from the perspective of market dynamics and macro environment, the impact of the series of events in early June 2025 on the cryptocurrency market can be analyzed from the following three aspects: Local stimulation of new projects and protocol upgrades; Binance launched BDXN token and contract trading on June 3rd, and attracted user participation through airdrop activities, which may increase market activity in the short term, but caution should be taken against the volatility risks brought by high leverage trading of new assets. On the same day, YieldNest launched the Token Generation Event (TGE), and if its re staking mechanism is successfully implemented, it may inject liquidity into the DeFi arena, but the actual effectiveness depends on the progress of the project.The structural impact of regulatory and institutional movements: The asset management conference held by the SEC on June 5th involves traditional institutions such as BlackRock. If the conference releases positive signals about cryptocurrency assets (such as spot ETFs), it may boost market confidence; But emphasizing compliance tightening may suppress speculative sentiment. Previously, the SEC's decision attitude towards physical redemption of ETFs remained a key variable.Macroeconomic data dominates market sentiment: The May non farm payroll data released on June 6th and intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials are core variables. If non farm employment exceeds expectations (such as 272000 in May 2024), it may strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. On the contrary, if the data is weak (such as the unemployment rate rising above 4%), it may alleviate concerns about liquidity tightening and benefit the cryptocurrency market. In addition, Federal Reserve officials have stated that if they lean towards a "hawkish" stance, it will further amplify market volatility.Comprehensive impact: Short term projects may be favorable or trigger local market trends, but the overall direction of the market still depends on macro data and policy expectations. Investors need to be vigilant about the drastic fluctuations before and after the release of non farm payroll data, and pay attention to whether the SEC meeting will release signals of a clearer regulatory framework, which may provide key support for the inflow of medium - and long-term funds into the cryptocurrency market.

BTC data analysis: CoinAnk monitoring data shows that well-known whale James Wynn triggered a strong leveling mechanism due to the decline in Bitcoin prices, and his 949 BTC (approximately $99.3 million) holdings were liquidated when they fell below the $105000 mark. This incident not only exposed the huge risks of high leverage trading, but also revealed the liquidity dilemma faced by institutional investors in extreme market conditions. It is worth noting that the trader has frequently adjusted their positions in the past week. Although the final weekly book loss exceeded 99 million US dollars, combined with their previous long short hedging and quick closing operations, they still have a cumulative profit of about 8.45 million US dollars. From the perspective of market impact, such large-scale liquidation events often form a chain reaction. The data shows that there is a clearing pressure of approximately $1.135 billion for short positions in the Bitcoin price near key points (such as $105000), and this "clearing threshold effect" can easily trigger accelerated price fluctuations. Historical experience has shown that when the daily clearing amount exceeds $250 million, market sentiment indices (such as fear and greed indices) quickly shift towards caution, leading to a contraction in trading volume and a downward spiral in prices. In the current environment, the abnormal position movements of the giant whale may exacerbate market concerns about liquidity risk, prompting more investors to reduce leverage or turn to defensive strategies. This shift in group behavior may prolong the market adjustment cycle, while also creating opportunities for institutions with risk management capabilities to attract funds at a low level.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, the open interest contract size of BTC across the entire network has climbed to $64.8 billion, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ranking first with a position of $14.04 billion, an increase of over 300% from the low point of the 2024 cycle. This data far exceeds the cautious performance of the futures market during the same period - the mainstream platform futures holdings are still 10% -15% lower than the historical peak, and the leverage utilization rate has not reached the previous high, indicating that this round of market is mainly driven by spot demand. The expansion of the options market reflects the urgent need of institutional investors for risk management, especially in the context of increasing divergence between long and short strategies. The coexistence of a large number of call option positions and short hedging positions may amplify short-term price fluctuations. Market indicators convey complex signals, and although the short-term holder realized profit ratio (STH SOPR) has not reached historical frenzy levels, the increase in the number of active addresses on the chain and the frequency of large-scale transactions indicate that funds are being repositioned. It is worth noting that the derivatives market has experienced structural differentiation - the proportion of short futures positions has risen to 45%, an increase of 12 percentage points from the bull market in 2024, reflecting the increased risk hedging willingness of institutional investors in the high price area. The intensification of this long short game, combined with the record breaking open interest in the options market, indicates that the cryptocurrency market may enter a high volatility cycle. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift towards expectations and geopolitical risks is driving more funds to use Bitcoin as a hedging tool for the traditional financial system. This deepening positioning may reshape the valuation logic of digital assets.

BTC data analysis: According to real-time statistics from Hyperliquid Whale Data on CoinAnk, as of May 28, 2025, well-known trader James Wynn's BTC long position has shown significant fluctuations in his 40x leverage operation. Currently, its position is 4792 BTC worth $520 million, with an opening price of $109782 and a liquidation price of $107419. The remaining profit is approximately $3 million. Compared to the profit of $87 million five days ago, the company incurred a loss of approximately $84 million due to high-frequency and high leverage trading, reflecting the high risk of its position adjustment strategy. It is worth noting that on May 27th, it attempted to expand its profits by increasing its position to $790 million (7227 BTC), but was subsequently forced to reduce its position to 5782 BTC due to a price drop, resulting in a floating loss of $20.38 million. This frequent increase or decrease in positions and high leverage operations not only exacerbate market volatility, but also highlight the sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market to whale level traders. When large long and short positions are frequently involved, it may trigger a chain of liquidation risks. For example, on May 25th, its $1.2 billion long position resulted in a loss of $13.39 million. Although it still made an overall profit of $8.45 million, short-term financial pressure has become apparent. Such behavior may further drive up market volatility, prompting retail investors to adjust their strategies, while causing disturbances to the short-term prices of mainstream currencies such as BTC. Continuous attention should also be paid to the potential risks of such high leverage operations to prevent systemic risks.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market experienced a surge in capital inflows yesterday, with a daily deposit volume exceeding $930 million, setting a record for the highest daily amount since January 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT fund dominated with a net inflow of $877 million, accounting for 93.8% of the total size. Fidelity FBTC and Ark ARKB contributed $48.66 million and $8.9 million respectively. This phenomenon continues the strong performance of IBIT funds since the beginning of the year, with their asset management scale occupying nearly half of the market, indicating a concentrated preference of institutional investors for top ETF products. From the perspective of market impact, large-scale capital inflows have strengthened the asset allocation attribute of Bitcoin, and the total amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs continues to approach the size of Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, highlighting the accelerated institutionalization process of cryptocurrency. The current total net asset value of ETFs has exceeded 121 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 6% of the total market value of Bitcoin. This structural change provides incremental liquidity for the market. Historical data shows that the flow of ETF funds is significantly positively correlated with the price of Bitcoin, and continuous inflows often push the price to break through key resistance levels. For example, in May 2024, when ETFs flowed in for 18 consecutive days, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $71000 mark. It is worth noting that the exchange's Bitcoin reserves have recently fallen to a seven-year low, coupled with the continuous fundraising of ETFs, which may exacerbate the market supply-demand imbalance and create favorable conditions for price increases. However, we need to be vigilant about the risk of excessive market concentration, as the fund movements of top funds may trigger short-term violent fluctuations.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, as of May 22, 2025, the Bitcoin derivatives market has shown a significant expansion trend, with the total number of open positions in contracts across the network exceeding 724200 BTC, with a nominal value of $80.82 billion, a daily increase of nearly 19%, setting a new historical peak. Among them, CME holds a 22.55% market share with a holding size of 163400 BTC ($18.23 billion), while Binance ranks second with 122100 BTC ($13.64 billion). This data shows continuous breakthrough growth compared to $43.3 billion in October 2024 and $34.48 billion in January 2025, reflecting the continued deepening of market participation. From the perspective of market structure analysis, CME's dominant position highlights the deep involvement of institutional funds. Its combination of standard contract design (each representing 5 BTC) and micro contracts has attracted professional investors, especially through cash settlement mechanisms to avoid the risk of directly holding cryptocurrency assets. Research shows that there is a positive correlation between the surge in open interest and the volatility of Bitcoin prices, and a high leverage environment may exacerbate liquidation risks. Although the current market sentiment tends to be optimistic, we need to be wary of the systemic pressure brought about by the increase in position concentration. Historical data shows that after the open interest exceeds historical highs, the market often enters a short-term adjustment phase to digest excessive leverage. For the cryptocurrency market, institutional led expansion of derivative markets not only enhances liquidity but also injects mature factors into price discovery mechanisms. However, it should be noted that the market share competition between CME and Binance (CME surpassed Binance with a market share of 24.87% in February 2025) reflects a long-term game between regulatory compliance and offshore trading models. In addition, the synergy between the inflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs (such as accumulating over $12 billion in 2024) and the derivatives market may further amplify market volatility. Investors are advised to pay attention to signals of divergence between open interest volume and price trends, in order to prevent liquidity shocks in a high leverage environment.

BTC data analysis:According to CoinAnk data, on May 21, 2025, the size of Bitcoin contract holdings climbed to a historic high of $72 billion, but perpetual contract funding rates remained close to neutral levels, indicating a balance between long and short positions. Nearly 99% of Bitcoin addresses in the current market are in a profitable state, but the 30 day moving average of the UTXO profit loss ratio indicator has exceeded the 200 threshold, indicating that the market has digested the driving force of the rapid rise in the early stage and entered a phase of momentum conversion.From the perspective of market structure, the sharp increase in open interest in futures is often associated with the amplification of price volatility. Historical data shows that when this indicator rises before breaking through, it is often accompanied by large-scale liquidation risks. Despite the continuous increase in institutional participation (such as CME accounting for over 30%) and the influx of spot ETF funds supporting market confidence, the perpetual contract funding rate has not strengthened synchronously, indicating a convergence of leveraged speculation heat. It is worth noting that the UTXO breakeven threshold is similar to the warning signal in the 2024 bull market cycle, reflecting the possibility of short-term profit accumulation triggering selling pressure. Overall, the market may enter a period of consolidation and volatility, and we need to be vigilant about the severe two-way fluctuations under high positions. However, in the medium to long term, the supply and demand relationship between institutional capital inflows and halving cycles still provides fundamental support for Bitcoin.

Macro interpretation: Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a complex and subtle pattern of changes. The flow of funds in traditional financial markets, structural adjustments in on chain data, and emotional differentiation in derivative markets have jointly constructed the underlying logic for a new round of price breakthroughs in Bitcoin. This article will analyze the key trends in the current cryptocurrency market by combining macroeconomic trends with on chain core indicators. Wall Street institutions have recently reached a rare consensus, predicting that the European Stoxx 600 index will achieve a 25 percentage point excess return relative to the S&P 500 index by 2025, marking a profound shift in global capital allocation. According to a survey by Bank of America, the proportion of fund managers who are over allocated to European stocks has reached 35%, while their allocation to US stocks has dropped to the lowest level in two years. Behind this kind of capital flow is actually a safe haven choice for investors regarding the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policies. When traditional financial markets shift their risk appetite towards defensive assets, encrypted assets often become beneficiaries of cross market capital flows. It is worth noting that Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad and Poor Dad, recently warned that Moody's may downgrade the US debt rating, which will lead to rising interest rates and economic recession risks. This macro level concern is strengthening the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin. Historical data shows that during the 2011 S&P downgrade of the US rating, gold prices soared by 18%, and the current level of institutionalization of Bitcoin is incomparable. According to CoinAnk data, the current proportion of Bitcoin exchange stocks has dropped to a historical low of 7.1%, a decrease of 1.7 million from 2018. This sustained accumulation of chips indicates that long-term holders (LTH) have gained market dominance. More importantly, this rebound has not been accompanied by signs of overheating in on chain activity: there have been no massive token transfers as seen in the late bull market of 2021, nor have there been high leverage phenomena in the derivatives market. Monitoring data shows that the implied volatility of Bitcoin is at a multi-year low, and the perpetual contract funding rate is only slightly positive, which is in sharp contrast to the scenario of retail investors crazily increasing leverage in early 2023. James Wynn, a giant whale, pointed out that there is intensive limit order support at the $100000 mark, and the $97000-99000 range has accumulated huge buying volumes. This market structure not only constitutes short-term support, but also accumulates momentum for breaking through the previous high. The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a historic transformation: the SuperTrend indicator for ETH/BTC trading pairs has turned bullish for the first time since 2015, while the stock of Ethereum exchange has fallen below its historical extreme of 4.9%. This dual signal suggests that Ethereum may end its three-year period of relative weakness. Chloe from HTX Research Institute pointed out that there is a possibility that the current upward momentum of Bitcoin may overflow to high-quality altcoins. Emerging Layer1 projects such as SUI ecosystem and the Attention Fi track represented by Kaito are attracting institutional funds for strategic layout. It is worth noting that the divergence between the premium of call contracts and implied volatility in the options market has reached a critical point - a call/put ratio of 1.55 indicates overly optimistic market sentiment, while a short-term IV value of 35% suggests that volatility suppression is unsustainable. This contradictory state may trigger two extreme trends: if Bitcoin effectively breaks through $105000, it will trigger a wave of programmatic trading chasing the rise; Once the key support level is lost, the chain liquidation of high leverage positions may lead to a sharp drop of 10% -15%. Despite many positive signals from the market, there are still three potential risks to be aware of: first, the US debt rating turmoil may cause global liquidity contraction, which will have an indiscriminate impact on all risky assets; Secondly, the total size of the stablecoin market accounts for only 1.1% of the USD M2, which means it still belongs to the high beta asset category and is far more sensitive to macroeconomic policies than traditional assets; Finally, the miner's position index shows that some miners have hedged, and this "smart money" trend often leads market price fluctuations. For investors, while maintaining core positions, they can appropriately allocate RWA projects with actual cash flow support or choose volatility related derivatives for risk hedging. As Kiyosaki said, true wealth creation often arises at the moment of crisis and opportunity transition, and the current cryptocurrency market is providing a rare layout window for sober observers.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, the proportion of Bitcoin exchange balances has dropped to a historic low of 7.1%, a decrease of 1.7 million from its peak in 2018, forming the most significant "on chain chip accumulation" phenomenon since 2015. The median holding cycle of long-term holders (LTH) has exceeded 4.2 years, and the proportion of holdings has risen to 63%, marking the market's transition from speculative driven to value storage paradigm. This round of price rebound is accompanied by a moderate increase in on chain activity, with daily large transfer volume (>1000 BTC) only 17% of the end of the bull market in 2021. The leverage ratio of derivatives (open interest contracts/market value ratio) remains stable in a reasonable range of 0.85, and there is no risk of overheating. The dominant position of long-term holders is reshaping the logic of market operation: firstly, the shrinking liquidity pool of exchanges has lowered the central price volatility to 45% (a decrease of 58% from 2021), reducing the space for short-term speculative returns; Secondly, the miners' selling pressure index (MPI) hit a three-year low of -0.91, coupled with a 12% increase in computing power after halving, forming supply side tightening support; Finally, the institution achieved a daily net inflow of $180 million through ETFs, driving the formation of a dual market structure of "cold storage compliant products". However, we need to be vigilant about the risk of liquidity stratification - the top 1% of addresses control 71% of the liquidity. If the giant whale synchronously reduces its holdings or triggers a 10% level flash crash, the current Bitcoin option skewness index (-24) already implies the market's pricing of downside risk. This cycle may exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic, with historical high volatility premiums gradually giving way to institutionalized pricing systems.

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   Coinank data shows that tokens such as PYTH, ZKJ, and PIXEL will experience significant unlocking this week, including: Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock approximately 2.13 billion tokens at 10pm on May 19th, with a ratio of 58.62% to current flow and a value of approximately $338 million; Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8am on May 19th, with a ratio of 5.3% to current flow and a value of approximately 32.3 million US dollars; Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 91.18 million tokens at 6pm on May 19th, with a ratio of 11.83% to current flow and a value of approximately $4.7 million; SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 12.65 million tokens at 8am on May 22nd, with a ratio of 2.94% to the current flow and a value of approximately $2.7 million.

We believe that this week's token unlocking event will have a structural impact on market supply and demand as well as investor expectations. Specifically, let's take a look: PYTH unlocking scale is significant, and we need to be alert to short-term selling pressure. Pyth Network has unlocked 2.13 billion tokens (accounting for 58.62% of the total flow), with a value of up to 338 million US dollars. Although its underlying oracle network has long-term value support due to institutional backgrounds such as Jane Street and Jump Trading, approximately 16.67% of short-term unlocked tokens flow to private investors, who typically have strong cash out motives. Based on historical cases, projects with a sudden increase in circulation of over 50% often face pressure from price corrections. ZKJ unlocking may trigger a market value reassessment. Polyhedra Network's ZKJ token unlocking volume accounts for 5.3% of the circulation, but based on the current market value, it accounts for 25.7%. Although some tokens are used for ecosystem incentives, their cross chain interoperability technology zkBridge has not yet formed significant revenue support, and the market may remain cautious about the actual application progress after unlocking. The impact of PIXEL and ID unlocking is relatively limited. The unlocking ratios of PIXEL and ID are 11.83% and 2.94%, respectively, which belong to the category of regular release. As a GameFi project, PIXEL's token is mainly used for in-game incentives, and user stickiness may buffer selling pressure; About 70% of the ID unlocking tokens are targeted towards foundations and ecological funds, and the usage restrictions reduce market supply shocks. Token unlocking is essentially a stress test of liquidity management capabilities. The project team needs to balance the early investor exit demand with the ecological construction goals, for example, PYTH will use 75% of unlocked tokens for ecological growth, which can be converted into long-term value if executed effectively. Investors should focus on the flow of tokens (private equity/team/ecosystem) and project fundamentals, avoiding the misconception of relying solely on unlocking ratios to determine risks. The recent Movement Labs incident has exposed the risk of over-the-counter trading manipulation, highlighting the importance of transparent unlocking mechanisms.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market has seen net inflows of funds in conceptual sectors such as Ethereum ecosystem, smart contracts, BSC, and Launchpool. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 500 by market value), with tokens such as NEIRO, FXS, ATH, ULTRAMA, and BGB showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. According to CoinAnk data, last week (May 12th May 18th), the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $479 million. However, in the first half of May, institutions increased their holdings of 26700 BTC against the trend, exceeding the miner's production by 3.7 times during the same period, forming a divergence structure of "capital outflow physical fundraising". The proportion of ETH/BTC ETF holdings has significantly increased, and the Ethereum ecosystem has shown a reversal signal. The MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC has reached a five-year low, indicating significant room for implied valuation repair. Coupled with the introduction of modular account abstraction in Pectra upgrade, the proportion of institutional holdings has increased to 19%, reaching a new high since 2023. On chain liquidity indicators show that the stock of ETH exchange decreased by 12% on a weekly basis, while futures holdings increased by 23%, forming a technical form of "spot contraction - derivative energy storage". We believe that the 38% rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate in this round may be a precursor to a shift in market style. Firstly, the outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs suggests that some institutions are shifting towards profit enhancing strategies, with ETH staking generating an annualized return of 4.2%, which is attractive; Secondly, the premium rate of Coinbase ETH futures has risen to 0.15%, indicating that professional investors are betting on a supplementary increase; Finally, the seasonal index of altcoins rebounded to the threshold of 35, which historical data shows often triggers excess return cycles of over 30% for small and medium-sized market value tokens. But we need to be wary of the increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin miners - the MPI index has fallen to -1.2, coupled with the contraction of block rewards after halving, which may suppress overall market liquidity and delay the full outbreak of the altcoin market.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to the CoinAnk clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $110000, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $1.518 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $100700, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $5.546 billion. We believe that the current clearing threshold in the Bitcoin market reflects the game pattern between long and short sides at key price levels. According to the clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $110000, it will trigger a short liquidation of $1.518 billion, which may lead to a "short squeeze" effect, where short closing behavior further pushes up prices and forms a positive feedback loop. If the price falls below $100700, the pressure of clearing multiple orders of up to $5.546 billion implies the presence of dense leveraged long positions below. Once it falls below the key support, liquidity depletion may trigger a "long kill long" stampede selling, exacerbating short-term downside risks. It is worth noting that the liquidation intensity is not an exact amount to be liquidated, but rather an evaluation of the market reaction intensity after the price is touched by comparing the density of adjacent price liquidation clusters. For example, historical data shows that there are significant differences in liquidation intensity at different time points for the same price level (such as $100000) ($791 million to $1.012 billion), reflecting the dynamic changes in market leverage structure and position distribution. This elastic characteristic indicates that the clearing map essentially reveals market vulnerability nodes - when prices exceed a threshold, the self reinforcing effect of liquidity waves may far exceed the volatility driven by fundamentals. The current asymmetry in the clearing intensity of long and short positions (the clearing intensity of long positions is 3.65 times that of short positions) may suggest a more concentrated defensive layout of the market towards short-term corrections, while also highlighting the fragility of high-level chasing funds. Researchers need to be vigilant about the amplifying effect of such technical clearing on market sentiment, especially in the absence of significant fundamental catalysis, which may lead to extreme fluctuations that deviate from value anchoring.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. According to CoinAnk data, the key macro events and key forecasts for the cryptocurrency market this week are as follows: On May 19th, US lawmakers will hold a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS bill; Solana will host the Accelerate 2025 Crypto Summit from May 19-23; Sahara AI announces the launch of SIWA public testing network;

May 20th: New York Mayor intensifies efforts to promote cryptocurrency plans ahead of the Crypto Summit;

May 22nd: The TRUMP dinner will be held on May 22nd, and the next phase of the token plan will be announced on the same day;

Numerous Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches from Monday to Friday.

The core variables of the cryptocurrency market this week are focused on two dimensions: policy regulation and political games, while also paying attention to the interactive impact of technology ecology and macro liquidity. Firstly, the Senate vote on the GENIUS Act on May 19th may become a watershed for the stablecoin market. The bill requires issuers to reserve 100% of highly liquid assets and conduct annual audits on projects with a market value exceeding $50 billion. Although this move may increase market transparency and institutional participation, it may also inhibit the innovation space of small and medium-sized stablecoins. If the bill is passed, USDC with lower compliance costs may benefit, while USDT with questionable reserve transparency will face pressure. Secondly, the mayor of New York is intensifying efforts to promote encryption plans, which resonates with the policy narrative of the Trump dinner. New York City attracts cryptocurrency companies to settle in through government enterprise cooperation, which may stimulate regional market activity; Trump announced his token plan at a dinner party, continuing his "crypto strategic reserve" proposition or promoting short-term hype of meme tokens (such as $TRUMP) tied to personal IPs. But we need to be vigilant about the policy risks brought about by political cycle fluctuations. At the level of technological ecology, the Solana Summit and Sahara AI testing online may boost market attention to high-performance public chains. If Solana announces its ecological support plan during the summit, or alleviates the recent decline in trading volume; The Sahara AI Test Network marks a new stage in the integration of AI and blockchain, which may attract institutional funding for layout. In terms of macro liquidity, intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials may strengthen market expectations for the path of interest rates. The current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is only 11.6%. If officials release hawkish signals, it may suppress the risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market and lead to the migration of funds to safe haven assets such as stablecoins. But if the US dollar index weakens due to loose expectations of interest rate cuts, it may trigger a safe haven linkage effect between Bitcoin and gold. Overall, the compliance dividend brought by regulatory implementation and the narrative hype driven by political benefits constitute the dual main themes of the short-term market, but the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the underlying pricing anchor. Long term observation is needed on the reshaping effect of the GENIUS Act on the structure of the stablecoin market, as well as the substantial progress of AI+blockchain applications.

BTC data analysis: CoinAnk's on chain data monitoring shows that the address of the giant whale has sold over 30000 BTC within 72 hours, coinciding with the time window of two pullbacks after the recent market exceeded $100000, indicating that "smart funds" are using on chain behavior for risk hedging. On Twitter, our large capital account sold over 30000 bitcoins (approximately $3.12 billion) through the market, coinciding with two technical retracements of BTC prices after breaking through $100000 for the first time. This round of reduction presents a structured feature: 64% of the selling pressure is concentrated on custodial addresses, and 27% is completed through dark pools, indicating that professional investors are using composite tools to hedge high-level risks rather than simply bearish and exiting. The behavior of the giant whale sends three market signals: firstly, the Bitcoin futures premium rate (annualized 12%) deviates from the spot price, indicating that the derivative market is accumulating potential volatility; Secondly, the net inflow of the exchange surged to an 18 month peak, but the market value of stablecoins increased by 3.7% simultaneously, forming a new paradigm of long short hedging; Thirdly, the Miner's Position Index (MPI) dropped to -0.93, hitting a new low since June 2023, indicating that supply side selling pressure may intensify. Historical data shows that when the weekly reduction exceeds 0.5% of the circulating volume (currently 0.16%), it often triggers a 15% medium-term adjustment. However, in this round, due to the continuous fundraising of institutional ETFs (with a daily net inflow of $120 million), the market may exhibit a "resistance style topping" feature, and small and medium-sized market value tokens will face more severe liquidity siphoning shocks.