Project Analysis

Economic Analysis

On-chain Analysis

Generally start with a project analysis

Read the white paper over and over again, a good white paper will make you want to go deeper into the project:

• The problem to be solved

• The technical solution

• Scenarios for token use

• Tokenomics

• Team background:

  • Dig into academic citations & LinkedIn work experience

  • You can see if the team is in it for a long-term vision or to make a quick buck

  • If it's an anonymous team:

    • Online presence

    • dev's github activity

    • Willingness to answer DMs

• Look closely at the roadmap:

  • Is it the right time to invest?

    • If it's not a product that's coming out in two years, don't rush into it yet

  • Keep up with it as an assessment of ability to deliver

    • Then how well the project progress is disclosed is important

Competitor Analysis:

• Who was the first to do this? How much MC?

• What are the advantages of this project over competing products?

• Has this product been successful in engaging users?

• Why would a user choose this product over his competitor?

Social Media Analysis:

• Do they have a media operation? Are there events being held? Is the strategy & content on point?

• Do they have a strong community? Are they happy to help with marketing?

• Is there a lot of online buzz (other than bots)?

• What is the quality of other people in the project's discord and telegram?

  • Is there a deep discussion or are they just asking "wen WL"?

• Is there a good community meme?

  • Memes show that the project's community is passionate and committed, and help it go viral

• Has a good tweeter written a project analysis of the project? Your own analysis may be lacking, so it helps to read others'.

UI/UX:

• If you need to google "how to use XXX" it means the product interface is not intuitive

MC and FDV

• FDV

  • FDV is often not a meme

    • Especially if there is no product, no users

  • The shib & solana ecology is a lesson

• MC

  • MC also depends on liquidity, otherwise it is misleading

    • Poorly liquid assets can easily be crushed by large investors when they cash out

    • On DEX you can try entering large amounts and look at the slippage to get a feel for liquidity

Tokenomics

• Prices are influenced by supply and demand.

• Is token really necessary? What is its use in this?

• Token distribution, unlocking events, release speed

  • May be different from the original white paper

  • If you can't find it, it's probably not a good project

  • New tokens entering circulation need to be able to be absorbed by the market, otherwise they will cause heavy selling pressure

• For live products, use @tokenterminal to look at 1) protocol revenue 2) P/E and P/S of protocols and dApps

  • If the revenue is promising, the protocol is growing well and the P/S is low, it is a good long-term value investment

Using @glassnode, @nansen_ai and @DuneAnalytics DuneAnalytics)

Some metrics

• Number of addresses & active addresses

• Number of large addresses

• Number of long-term holders vs. number of short-term holders

• Exchange balances

  • For example, if a large percentage is transferred to an exchange, it is likely to indicate that someone is trying to sell

• Wallet addresses worth watching

• ...

Project Analysis

Economic Analysis

On-chain Analysis

Generally start with a project analysis

Read the white paper over and over again, a good white paper will make you want to go deeper into the project:

• The problem to be solved

• The technical solution

• Scenarios for token use

• Tokenomics

• Team background:

  • Dig into academic citations & LinkedIn work experience

  • You can see if the team is in it for a long-term vision or to make a quick buck

  • If it's an anonymous team:

    • Online presence

    • dev's github activity

    • Willingness to answer DMs

• Look closely at the roadmap:

  • Is it the right time to invest?

    • If it's not a product that's coming out in two years, don't rush into it yet

  • Keep up with it as an assessment of ability to deliver

    • Then how well the project progress is disclosed is important

Competitor Analysis:

• Who was the first to do this? How much MC?

• What are the advantages of this project over competing products?

• Has this product been successful in engaging users?

• Why would a user choose this product over his competitor?

Social Media Analysis:

• Do they have a media operation? Are there events being held? Is the strategy & content on point?

• Do they have a strong community? Are they happy to help with marketing?

• Is there a lot of online buzz (other than bots)?

• What is the quality of other people in the project's discord and telegram?

  • Is there a deep discussion or are they just asking "wen WL"?

• Is there a good community meme?

  • Memes show that the project's community is passionate and committed, and help it go viral

• Has a good tweeter written a project analysis of the project? Your own analysis may be lacking, so it helps to read others'.

UI/UX:

• If you need to google "how to use XXX" it means the product interface is not intuitive

MC and FDV

• FDV

  • FDV is often not a meme

    • Especially if there is no product, no users

  • The shib & solana ecology is a lesson

• MC

  • MC also depends on liquidity, otherwise it is misleading

    • Poorly liquid assets can easily be crushed by large investors when they cash out

    • On DEX you can try entering large amounts and look at the slippage to get a feel for liquidity

Tokenomics

• Prices are influenced by supply and demand.

• Is token really necessary? What is its use in this?

• Token distribution, unlocking events, release speed

  • May be different from the original white paper

  • If you can't find it, it's probably not a good project

  • New tokens entering circulation need to be able to be absorbed by the market, otherwise they will cause heavy selling pressure

• For live products, use @tokenterminal to look at 1) protocol revenue 2) P/E and P/S of protocols and dApps

  • If the revenue is promising, the protocol is growing well and the P/S is low, it is a good long-term value investment

Using @glassnode, @nansen_ai and @DuneAnalytics DuneAnalytics)

Some metrics

• Number of addresses & active addresses

• Number of large addresses

• Number of long-term holders vs. number of short-term holders

• Exchange balances

  • For example, if a large percentage is transferred to an exchange, it is likely to indicate that someone is trying to sell

• Wallet addresses worth watching

• ...