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            <title><![CDATA[Limitless?]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@curiositygap/limitless</link>
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            <pubDate>Sun, 03 Jul 2022 09:54:02 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[The movie and subsequent TV show Limitless introduced millions of people to the concept of nootropicsIt sparked an explosive growth of a new industry marketing chemical substances as cognitive enhancers or smartdrugs, promising an unfair advantage. Where&apos;s the catch?Romanian psychologist and chemist Corneliu E. Giurgea coined the term “nootropic” in 1972It is derived from the Ancient Greek words νόος, meaning “mind”, and τροπή, meaning “a turning”. Giurgea synthesized piracetam in the 19...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 id="h-the-movie-and-subsequent-tv-show-limitless-introduced-millions-of-people-to-the-concept-of-nootropics" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The movie and subsequent TV show Limitless introduced millions of people to the concept of nootropics</h2><p>It sparked an explosive growth of a new industry marketing chemical substances as cognitive enhancers or smartdrugs, promising an unfair advantage.</p><p><em>Where&apos;s the catch?</em></p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/9c51c89a9e1639a56f1aacc08e63242904b1432e9ab90bab85a6ef806504bd5f.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-romanian-psychologist-and-chemist-corneliu-e-giurgea-coined-the-term-nootropic-in-1972" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Romanian psychologist and chemist Corneliu E. Giurgea coined the term “nootropic” in 1972</h3><p>It is derived from the Ancient Greek words νόος, meaning “mind”, and τροπή, meaning “a turning”.</p><p>Giurgea synthesized <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/piracetam?src=hashtag_click">piracetam</a> in the 1950ies, one of the first putative nootropics:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/cf6d564b7cb692f99d66a23b0c2abed96450d415ccd9f571002bc6202a421ef8.jpg" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>While piracetam&apos;s potential for cognitive enhancement seems <em>very limited</em>, it&apos;s only one of hundreds of substances vendors sell on the internet. Many of these novel substances have only been tested on rats.</p><p>Some of them are as obscure as they come and <strong>without *any* safety data</strong>.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/2832a3327c57b2fab6d7d6f0d8ffb53f7570346de5c8f812ffb76ad212ef95aa.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-this-is-where-biohackers-come-into-play" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">This is where biohackers come into play.</h3><p>They experiment with untested combinations (so-called <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/stacks?src=hashtag_click">stacks</a>) of up to ~20 substances and post their real-life experiences as “anecdotal evidence” on <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/Reddit">@reddit</a> boards like /r/Nootropics or /r/Biohackers/. Don&apos;t try that at home, kids!</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d7df4851448c672c35c4392eaea1da856236b284e4c5ef6a8977f3d807f2b73c.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>Some vendors circumvent national regulations by hosting their webshops on offshore-servers or declaring their products as <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/researchchemicals?src=hashtag_click">#researchchemicals</a> for legitimate medical facilities—without actually checking who&apos;s buying.</p><p>When someone gets hurt, there&apos;s no accountability whatsoever.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/2868db3eacf4954a23310c119d8e08666d6a6102e96aee8ac522b5f5c911962b.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>The global nootropics market size is projected to reach $5-25 billion in a few years. It&apos;s a money printing machine with high margins. I spent some time online chatting with different vendors to gain their trust. Most of them openly admitted to not having any quality checks.</p><p>Most stuff is ordered in bulk from labs in China. A vendor I talked to claimed he could buy fake “Certificates of Authenticity” (CoA) for a little extra – attesting a chemical purity of over 99%. You shouldn&apos;t put your health in the hands of some shady backyard lab in China.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/b334ca2cd56d1655937d58b71c8e4396190339e89ef831aabfaa4ef5af462940.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>Vendors and niche blogs (using affiliate links) seem to control the narrative when it comes to claimed benefits of nootropics. You&apos;ll find heaps of “<em>broscience</em>” on how <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/modafinil?src=hashtag_click">#modafinil</a> will help you pass your next exam with flying colors, but a lot less on side effects. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/redflag?src=hashtag_click">#redflag</a> 🚩</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/86a22779cd861b937bbb3873f2b3bc23e4e841049fac042cc0445a31c8b0b151.gif" alt="" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-it-turns-out-when-it-comes-to-drugs-theres-no-free-lunch" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">It turns out, when it comes to drugs, there&apos;s no free lunch</h3><p>Like many medications, nootropics can cause <em>downregulation</em> of a variety of receptors, leading to tolerance development, diminishing returns and ultimately dependence. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.</p><h3 id="h-sources-and-further-reading" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Sources and further reading:</h3><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://lexico.com/en/definition/nootropic">https://lexico.com/en/definition/nootropic</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://books.google.de/books?id=upjSDAAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PA68#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false">https://books.google.de/books?id=upjSDAAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PA68#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://webmd.com/vitamins-and-supplements/features/nootropics-smart-drugs-overview">https://webmd.com/vitamins-and-supplements/features/nootropics-smart-drugs-overview</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://psychologytoday.com/us/blog/engineering-cognitive-experience/201911/the-risks-nootropic-use">https://psychologytoday.com/us/blog/engineering-cognitive-experience/201911/the-risks-nootropic-use</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(01)06890-8/fulltext">https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(01)06890-8/fulltext</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-nootropics-market-distribution-channel-160900058.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-nootropics-market-distribution-channel-160900058.html</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://bbc.com/news/magazine-35091574">https://bbc.com/news/magazine-35091574</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://addcounsel.com/the-dangers-of-smart-drugs/">https://addcounsel.com/the-dangers-of-smart-drugs/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4756795/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4756795/</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>curiositygap@newsletter.paragraph.com (CuriosityGap)</author>
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            <title><![CDATA[Ethereum goes Proof-of-Stake]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@curiositygap/ethereum-goes-proof-of-stake</link>
            <guid>sKC1lSLrcrCvf1bMPU8M</guid>
            <pubDate>Tue, 31 May 2022 17:24:09 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Ethereum is a distributed state machine. Think of it as a virtual computer distributed across thousands of nodes around the world.Now Ethereum is gearing up for arguably the biggest event in crypto history – #TheMerge – reducing its energy consumption by 99.95%.But how? ⚡Until now, “miners” have utilized an energy-intensive Proof-of-Work (#PoW) consensus protocol to add blocks of transactions to the Ethereum #blockchain and thus earn rewards. Ethereum&apos;s PoW consumes 73.2 TWh annually, th...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 id="h-ethereum-is-a-distributed-state-machine-think-of-it-as-a-virtual-computer-distributed-across-thousands-of-nodes-around-the-world" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Ethereum is a distributed state machine. Think of it as a virtual computer distributed across thousands of nodes around the world.</h2><p>Now Ethereum is gearing up for arguably the biggest event in crypto history – <strong>#TheMerge</strong> – reducing its energy consumption by <strong>99.95%</strong>.</p><h3 id="h-but-how" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">But how? ⚡</h3><p>Until now, “<em>miners</em>” have utilized an energy-intensive <em>Proof-of-Work</em> (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PoW?src=hashtag_click">#PoW</a>) consensus protocol to add blocks of transactions to the Ethereum <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/blockchain?src=hashtag_click">#blockchain</a> and thus earn rewards. Ethereum&apos;s PoW consumes <strong>73.2 TWh annually</strong>, the energy equivalent of a medium-sized country like Austria. 🤯</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/ef71f2681068b6085efc69973c8e6fdae280e75614005cffdb68fe20604f3622.jpg" alt="This is what a crypto mining farm looks like." blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">This is what a crypto mining farm looks like.</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-the-ethereum-foundation-claims-the-merge-will-usher-in-a-new-era-for-bitcoins-biggest-rival" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The Ethereum Foundation claims “The Merge” will usher in a new era for Bitcoin&apos;s biggest rival.</h3><p>Ethereum&apos;s network is set to merge with the “<em>Beacon Chain”</em>, running an energy-efficient <strong>Proof-of-Stake (#PoS) consensus protocol</strong>. So why <em>Proof-of-Stake</em>?</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/cc312956484546673223ed01403a97db2cb4c84b042ef9547d194a7ce38f89ba.png" alt="The Path to the Merge: Illustration by @trent_vanepps" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">The Path to the Merge: Illustration by @trent_vanepps</figcaption></figure><p>With <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PoS?src=hashtag_click">#PoS</a>, miners become obsolete and get replaced by so-called “<strong>validators</strong>”. In contrast to a wasteful “<em>mining rig</em>”, you can run a <em>validator node</em> on a lightweight <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/Raspberry_Pi">@Raspberry_Pi</a> or <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/OdroidH">@OdroidH</a>.</p><blockquote><h3 id="h-to-run-a-validator-node-you-will-need-to-stake-at-least-32-eth" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">To run a validator node, you will need to “#stake” at least 32 ETH.</h3></blockquote><p>At the time of writing, this equals an investment of <strong>$63,000</strong>. 💰</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/a150a3590dbd3af656f4271f82894b5198578b8cc8ced0bce06fb3b87cda0dcd.jpg" alt="A Raspberry Pi can be set up to serve as a validator node for Ethereum. Photo by @PraveenTcom" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">A Raspberry Pi can be set up to serve as a validator node for Ethereum. Photo by @PraveenTcom</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-by-requiring-validators-to-stake-their-precious-dollareth-the-consensus-protocol-incentivizes-good-behavior" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">By requiring #validators to stake their precious $ETH, the consensus protocol incentivizes good behavior.</h3><p>Compliant validators get <strong>ETH-denominated rewards</strong> for running the network and lose a portion of their stake for being offline or their entire stake for deliberate collusion. 🚨</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e76d890f2e43b60eea84905506674aa419def3b1c665f10b7fb4844f580478bd.png" alt="Illustration by the Ethereum Foundation" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Illustration by the Ethereum Foundation</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-the-migration-to-pos-is-an-enormous-but-crucial-undertaking" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The migration to #PoS is an enormous but crucial undertaking.</h3><p>With billions of 💵 at stake, the developers need to ensure <em>backward-compatibility</em> and an incentive structure promoting security, partly based on game theory.</p><p>At the same time, Ethereum needs to be able to accommodate future updates like <strong>#sharding</strong>.</p><blockquote><p><strong>Sharding is a future update promising to drastically reduce the time and fees needed to finalize transactions on the blockchain. It’s the next big change coming to the network after the merge is tried and tested.</strong></p></blockquote><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/76109b08b14684cf733642d43e8895dacb2732f0ec9aa774a2567c30aed1fe9b.png" alt="A visualization of the estimated PoS power consumption vs. current PoW" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">A visualization of the estimated PoS power consumption vs. current PoW</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-sources-and-further-reading" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Sources and further reading:</h3><p>Twitter:</p><p>@tothepoles <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/thedailygwei">@thedailygwei</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/trent_vanepps">@trent_vanepps</a> @ethereum</p><p>Web:</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://ethereum.org/en/what-is-ethereum/">https://ethereum.org/en/what-is-ethereum/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2021/05/18/country-power-no-more/">https://blog.ethereum.org/2021/05/18/country-power-no-more/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://notes.ethereum.org/@MarioHavel/merge-resources">https://notes.ethereum.org/@MarioHavel/merge-resources</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://ethmerge.com/">https://ethmerge.com/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9236965">https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9236965</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://docs.ethhub.io/using-ethereum/running-an-ethereum-node/">https://docs.ethhub.io/using-ethereum/running-an-ethereum-node/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/">https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/</a></p><h3 id="h-did-you-like-this-post" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Did you like this post?</h3><blockquote><h3 id="h-follow-curiositygap-on-twitter" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Follow @CuriosityGap on Twitter</h3></blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>curiositygap@newsletter.paragraph.com (CuriosityGap)</author>
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            <title><![CDATA[Cognitive Bias]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@curiositygap/cognitive-bias</link>
            <guid>RZJTAy3LNgF8ulgAfYXl</guid>
            <pubDate>Tue, 31 May 2022 16:15:18 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Cognitive biases are mental short-cuts and some of the most mind-boggling phenomena in psychology.Their nature is one of the reasons why each one of us is stuck in his/her own reality. Knowing your biases could help you get unstuck and make better decisions.Let&apos;s dive in! 🤿Biases can stem from the brain&apos;s preference for lower energy expenditure, missing information and evolutionary pressures. While they enable quick decisions, they also introduce a flurry of errors, clouding our ju...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 id="h-cognitive-biases-are-mental-short-cuts-and-some-of-the-most-mind-boggling-phenomena-in-psychology" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Cognitive biases are mental short-cuts and some of the most mind-boggling phenomena in psychology.</h2><p>Their nature is one of the reasons why each one of us is stuck in his/her own reality. <em>Knowing your biases could help you get unstuck and make better decisions.</em></p><h3 id="h-lets-dive-in" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Let&apos;s dive in! 🤿</h3><p><strong>Biases</strong> can stem from the brain&apos;s preference for <em>lower energy expenditure</em>, missing information and evolutionary pressures. While they enable quick decisions, they also introduce a flurry of errors, clouding our judgement. 🧠</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/4d0ff7ee68599ada5990f25a3443372890f48e1e000413cc4d23ac670d80f3ab.png" alt="Cognitive Bias Codex by designhacks.co" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Cognitive Bias Codex by designhacks.co</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-1-dunning-kruger-effect" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">1. Dunning-Kruger effect</h3><p>You may <strong>underestimate</strong> your expertise in a field you naturally excel at because you think anyone must be good at it, or <strong>overestimate</strong> your knowledge when in fact you know little about a subject.</p><blockquote><p>Antidote: Ask your peers about your superpower.</p></blockquote><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6d872cd7a9925fc4da9796418ec26fc258f94e68173950e41e8384868775e6fe.gif" alt="Donald knows everything." blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Donald knows everything.</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-2-confirmation-bias" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">2. Confirmation bias</h3><p>We tend to value information <strong>confirming our own beliefs</strong> more than information contradicting them. It takes conscious effort to take new evidence into consideration and to tolerate the uneasy feeling of <em>cognitive dissonance</em>.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/093f8ff16ed290becce204a3733b7fa0d1dbec336515ea8f6d1de07f574b0541.gif" alt="Confirmation Bias" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Confirmation Bias</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-3-gamblers-fallacy" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">3. Gambler&apos;s fallacy</h3><p>Let&apos;s say a gambler plays coin flipping – he sees “heads” 9 times in a row and decides “tails” is <strong>long overdue</strong>. He goes all in.</p><blockquote><p>Unfortunately, the odds did not change based on past results. They are <strong>statistically independent</strong>.</p></blockquote><p>Heads!</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/ea001dc8295edf45303cee7c22f38885fce1add85600c7a399d2f8873d148189.gif" alt="Gene Hackman flipping a coin" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Gene Hackman flipping a coin</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-4-barnum-effect" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">4. Barnum effect</h3><p>What do psychics and salesmen have in common?</p><p>They employ statements <strong>vague enough</strong> to trick you into believing they are specifically tailored to you.</p><p><strong>Example:</strong></p><blockquote><p><em>“At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.”</em></p></blockquote><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/92ad4df84480cf7fda0d5df38f55d69f064e0d364e5b5f0e87d2d801c7daae13.gif" alt="I see great things in your future…" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">I see great things in your future…</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-5-the-sunk-cost-fallacy" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">5. The sunk cost fallacy</h3><p>You buy a used car.</p><p>A week later, it breaks down. You pay the repair shop to fix it. Days later, you need to get the brakes fixed. And a door. The repairs cost you more than the car.</p><p>You know you should <strong>sell it at a loss</strong>, but you keep throwing cash at it.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/1b10fce2af09c0bb6d3416b8f9e63c4817285216374840fb34a69cfb77abab60.gif" alt="Well, sh\*\*!" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Well, sh\*\*!</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-6-halo-effect" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">6. Halo effect</h3><p>I make my friends mad each time I shrug off <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk">@elonmusk</a>&apos;s bad decisions and Ambien-fueled tweets because I admire his ingenuity and First Principles thinking in <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://twitter.com/lexfridman">@lexfridman</a>&apos;s podcasts.</p><p>Maybe I&apos;m just prone to the <strong>halo effect</strong>?</p><blockquote><p>Another good example is the neurosurgeon, whose perceived <strong>amazing abilities</strong> in the field of medicine seemingly <strong>spill over</strong> into other domains, like politics: Chances are he has no clue about political affairs, but you are more likely to take his takes serious because of the halo effect.</p></blockquote><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/af3865c82fca652350136a0ab5ce29da3a6d56a209c3e627223d0245604dfad3.gif" alt="Elon Musk on Joe Rogan&apos;s Podcast" blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">Elon Musk on Joe Rogan&apos;s Podcast</figcaption></figure><h3 id="h-7-planning-fallacy" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">7. Planning fallacy</h3><p>I totally <strong>underestimated the time</strong> it would take to create this thread, though it was a rewarding experience.</p><p>It turns out I&apos;m in good company: Scientists found out <em>most humans are way too optimistic</em> when it comes to setting realistic deadlines for tasks. This is especially true the more complex a task gets.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center" style="max-width: null;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3a654954f3ff95ea9d757dce023eaa7c631f39787242ecb7839fc7e3eaa2c3b0.gif" alt="It&apos;s getting late." blurdataurl="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" nextheight="600" nextwidth="800" class="image-node embed"><figcaption HTMLAttributes="[object Object]" class="">It&apos;s getting late.</figcaption></figure><p>Sources and further reading:</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases">https://thedecisionlab.com/biases</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://answerthepublic.com/reports/4c0a8384-e3bd-4648-81aa-194e1d49dee6">https://answerthepublic.com/reports/4c0a8384-e3bd-4648-81aa-194e1d49dee6</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01561/full">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01561/full</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/">https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://fs.blog/first-principles/">https://fs.blog/first-principles/</a></p><h3 id="h-did-you-like-this-post" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Did you like this post?</h3><blockquote><h3 id="h-follow-curiositygap-on-twitter" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Follow @CuriosityGap on Twitter</h3></blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>curiositygap@newsletter.paragraph.com (CuriosityGap)</author>
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