Crypto and Politics will finally intersect

1. Young voters would want clarity over cryptocurrencies and their regulation, while republicans have a chance to win young swing and democrat voters by pursuing pro-crypto stances. In the aftermath of some surprising swings, crypto becomes a major plank of 2024 presidential campaigns.

2. Biden might not push for large-scale regulations because he wants to keep the younger voters on his side. April until October might be gruesome. We have tax bills, student loan payments, higher mortgage rates. A lot of sell pressure across all web3

3. China will take over Taiwan. Democratically or not. China will show it is serious about climate change by building nuclear reactors in record numbers. Might help the Chinese Yuan gain huge grounds in the crypto space.

The resurgence of coding over the next few years

1. Let’s call these few years the great migration. Web2 to Web3. More people will pick up coding not to just earn money but to change the world order. People will finally realize that the creator economy is for everyone. There will be a rise of coding boot camps, free resources to learn coding, designing, marketing etc.

2. The creator economy will add to the talent shortage. The demand for developers will outpace the growth of the talent pool, leading to astronomical salaries and flexible operating terms.

DAOs will get worse before they get better.

1. DAOs will become more common but will not hold people's attention. There will be fewer social DAOs and more investment DAOs. The hype around DAOs will quickly deflate when people realize that managing a DAO is not as easy as they thought.

2. Interesting ways to manage DAOs will emerge. Ex. Pods (https://orca.mirror.xyz/Y2xvPmB4cJH51srGqY6Mm_g38lV-7cwvtyDePnyzfAE)

3. Token sales will replace traditional seed rounds. Guilds will be the biggest market makers in the cryptocurrency space with massive war chests, talent pools and asset inventories.

4. Web3 will be the avenue for musicians/artists. Will allow fans access and interaction like never before. Giving value back to fans through incentives tailored specifically towards them!

Web2 and banks two peas of the same pod might get annihilated if they don’t move fast. This is their Kodak moment.

1. One word: Acquisitions. Smarter public companies will buy communities. Not-so-smart will try to create their own worlds. Meta might build an open metaverse.

2. Web2 will find it hard to compete. Slow-moving extremely unmotivated workforce.

3. Banks will move in. So will Visa and Amex. Banks might even offer “high-interest“ rate accounts. But will fight it as long as they can.

4. Wallet to Wallet Messaging will see a rise. It’s time to build all social networks again.

We will start comparing valuations of Web3 companies to their competition in the legacy world.

1. Example Telecommunication (HNT):

   1. HNT Current market cap: $3.8bn and Fully diluted market cap: $8.5bn.Top 10 legacy telecom market cap (as of Jan 2021): $1007.6bn https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/030216/worlds-top-10-telecommunications-companies.asp Total Telco market cap: $2.65tn

   2. At current token supply: HNT captures 1% of the top 10 market, HNT token price: $100.76. or 0.1% of total telco market cap, HNT token price: $2600

   3. Aside from telco’s, HNT is competing with Starlink, Amazon sidewalk etc. FedEx, UPS, Apple etc. could be Frens or foes.

   4. 444k hotspots owners (skin in the game). Free marketing, no ad spend, high-profit margins, cheaper service to customers.

2. These comparisons will benefit Web3 startups in Multiple other industry verticals

   1. healthcare: MediBloc, Solve

   2. insurance: Nexus Mutual, inSure Defi

   3. energy: Energy Web Token, Powerledger

   4. real estate: Propy, LABS Group

P2E will be an unstoppable force.

1. Play to Earn + Great games = Massive Hit. Might not happen this year but the roots are planted.

2. Apple, Google, Epic stand to lose and will start an anti-crypto PR offensive. Might pay game developers more, reduce their take.

3. ETH L2 chain with big gaming push wins L2 race.

The NFT market will grow in value and we will stop comparing NFT valuations to “just“ the art market.

1. Majorly all utility NFTs will survive. Could be exclusive group memberships, staking models, token drops etc.

2. Still expect ETH NFTs to big the biggest. Blue-chip NFTs will decrease in value. 99% of the projects will never recover.

3. New entrants with huge marketing campaigns will kill the bubbly NFT market. Scarcity and exclusivity will become important. Won’t see the genesis projects bigger than 10K and might even see smaller numbers.

All chains including FTM / AVAX / Solana / Polygon will grow

1. Bullish on all EVM chains. Less bullish on Solana. It’s a modular blockchain future.

2. Fantom, Polygon become more decentralized with $STRONG nodes. Hope is the next generation of Degen's care about decentralization.

DeFi 2.0 will be way bigger than DeFi 1.0

1. TVL in DeFi in 2021 is $246bn. Expect it to hit $2tn this year if a black swan hack doesn't happen.

2. The market cap of OHM and forks will keep growing (if they survive). They sit on huge treasuries of ETH which will remain deflationary.

3. NFTs will spill over to DeFi.