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        <description>Observer, experiencer, researcher in crypto circle over 8 years.</description>
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            <title><![CDATA[🚀 Web3 & Crypto 2025.1.1 Research Memo]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@fatratkiller-2/web3-crypto-2025-1-1-research-memo</link>
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            <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 04:42:06 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Subscribe me! Part A: Growing New Projects (in descending order of popularity and engagement) 🔥 Sonic SVM Announced tokenomics with a total supply of 2.4 billion tokens. 57% allocated to the community, reinforcing community-driven growth. 🔥 FLock.io Launch of its mainnet and TGE (Token Generation Event) on Base network. 🔥 BIO Protocol Former MakerDAO founding team member joins to lead BioDAO’s AI Agent business. 🔥 Unichain Plans to introduce a new validator network by 2025. 🔥 HyperStakeX...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Subscribe me!<br><br>Part A: Growing New Projects (in descending order of popularity and engagement)</strong></p><p>🔥 Sonic SVM Announced tokenomics with a total supply of 2.4 billion tokens. 57% allocated to the community, reinforcing community-driven growth. <br><br>🔥 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="http://FLock.io">FLock.io</a> Launch of its mainnet and TGE (Token Generation Event) on Base network. <br><br>🔥 BIO Protocol Former MakerDAO founding team member joins to lead BioDAO’s AI Agent business. <br><br>🔥 Unichain Plans to introduce a new validator network by 2025. <br><br>🔥 HyperStakeX (@HyperStakeX) A new project followed by notable figures in the DeFi space. <br><br>🔥 VitaRNA (@vitarnabio) Tokenization of the Artan Bio IP-NFT, supporting gene therapy projects. Project backed by @vita_dao. <br><br>🔥 intentkitai (@intentkitai) Open and fair framework for building AI agents with advanced skills. <br><br>🔥 Solv Protocol (SOLV) Launched on Binance Megadrop with an initial airdrop of 7% of supply. <br><br>🔥 Polkadot 2025 roadmap released, pushing DOT to become a universal transaction fee token. <br><br>🔥 beraSTONE/ETH Now the largest liquidity pool on Uniswap V3, surpassing stETH as the leading yield-bearing Ethereum pool. <br><br>🔥 Hyper Foundation Staking function for HYPER mainnet is live. <br><br><br><strong>Part B: Detailed Research Views (Sorted by topic and popularity)</strong></p><ol><li><p>Market Trends and Predictions</p></li></ol><p>Alliance DAO predicts Bitcoin’s price could range from $150K to $420K in 2025, driven by U.S. reserves and potential strategic adoption. Galaxy Research forecasts Bitcoin reaching $185K by Q4 2025. Ethereum’s price is expected to surpass $5,500, driven by relaxed DeFi regulations and increased staking demand. Redphone anticipates Solana will redefine the blockchain landscape, with AI-driven market shifts and growing adoption of AI agents. <br><br>2. AI Ecosystem and Web3 Innovation</p><p>Virtuals and ai16z dominate over 56% of the AI Agent market, although facing challenges in decentralization. Base and Solana ecosystems lead AI Agent activity. Deep Value Memetics compared major AI frameworks: Eliza (market leader, 60% share) G.A.M.E (fastest-growing, 20% share) Rig (Solana dominant) Zerepy (niche but gaining traction) AI Agent ecosystems continue expanding with increasing liquidity and user engagement. <br><br>3. DeFi and Regulatory Developments</p><p>U.S. Treasury and IRS introduced new regulations for DeFi brokers, requiring compliance with KYC/AML procedures. This could reshape the DeFi landscape by incentivizing decentralization. Projects exploring decentralized frontends, immutable contracts, and on-chain governance will likely fare better under these regulations. <br><br>4. Technological Innovations</p><p>MPC, FHE, and TEE technologies are expected to unlock new privacy layers in crypto, enabling secure multi-party computations and encrypted data processing. Challenges persist with performance bottlenecks and reliance on hardware vendors for TEE environments. <br><br>5. Bittensor Ecosystem (Tao)</p><p>Bittensor remains pivotal in decentralized AI infrastructure, serving as the backbone for various AI Agent projects. Despite skepticism, its subnet system continues attracting major AI protocols. <br><br>6. Stablecoins and L2 Growth</p><p>Stablecoin market cap is projected to hit $500 billion by 2025. Companies like Stripe and Robinhood might launch their own stablecoins, while major retailers explore stablecoin payments. <br><br>7. Meme Coins and Retail Markets</p><p>Rui from HashKey Capital suggests meme coins have evolved beyond speculation into innovative asset distribution models. Community-driven growth will continue, supported by platforms like @Virtual and BioDAO. <br><br>8. New Financial Models</p><p>Virtuals Protocol introduced AI agent DAOs, reshaping investment strategies and enhancing on-chain trading.</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer and Non-Financial Advice Statement</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>Legal Disclaimer</em></strong></p><p><em>The information provided in this document is for general informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal, financial, or investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any securities, digital assets, or financial instruments. The contents of this document reflect the opinions and insights of the authors at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.</em></p><p><strong><em>No Financial or Investment Advice</em></strong></p><p><em>All materials provided herein are for informational purposes and do not constitute financial or investment advice. You should not act or refrain from acting based on any information provided in this document without seeking independent professional advice from a qualified financial advisor. The authors and publishers are not liable for any financial or investment decisions made based on the information contained herein.</em></p><p><strong><em>Risk Disclosure</em></strong></p><p><em>Investing in cryptocurrencies, tokens, and digital assets involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult with professional advisors before engaging in any investment activities.</em></p><p><strong><em>No Liability</em></strong></p><p><em>The authors, publishers, and associated parties make no warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information provided. Under no circumstances shall the authors or publishers be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages arising from the use or reliance on the information contained in this document.</em></p><p><strong><em>Forward-Looking Statements</em></strong></p><p><em>Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking information and projections based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied.</em></p><p><strong><em>Acknowledgment of Responsibility</em></strong></p><p><em>By accessing and using this document, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to the terms of this disclaimer and that you accept full responsibility for your investment decisions and any consequences that may arise.</em></p><p><em>If you do not agree with this disclaimer, please refrain from using or relying on the information contained in this document.</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>fatratkiller-2@newsletter.paragraph.com (FatRatKiller)</author>
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            <title><![CDATA[What are the best investment opportunities for BTC and ETH?]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@fatratkiller-2/what-are-the-best-investment-opportunities-for-btc-and-eth</link>
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            <pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2022 03:59:18 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[For mature investors, what matters more than probability is how much you can make if you get it right, and how much you can lose if you get it wrong. The market is a random walk, and the risks and returns are often asymmetrical, which is the source of investment opportunities and risks. Therefore, high risk and high return is not a good investment opportunity. We transform the risk-return relationship into odds, and divide investment opportunities into three categories: worst, best, and mediu...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For mature investors, what matters more than probability is how much you can make if you get it right, and how much you can lose if you get it wrong. The market is a random walk, and the risks and returns are often asymmetrical, which is the source of investment opportunities and risks.</p><p>Therefore, high risk and high return is not a good investment opportunity. We transform the risk-return relationship into odds, and divide investment opportunities into three categories: worst, best, and medium.</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.aicoin.com/xx/QbYEGk0b">https://www.aicoin.com/xx/QbYEGk0b</a></p><p>The worst opportunity is high success rate and low odds -- but this is the most common and preferred opportunity. &quot;High success rates&quot; are defined as higher odds of future gains, while &quot;low odds&quot; are defined as lower odds of future gains than losses. The truth is, people always die by what they trust most.</p><p>Countless crypto KOLs have taken a few super-blue chip projects that have fallen for years, believing that &quot;value will eventually return.&quot; These currencies may eventually come to life, but for how many years? Five years, 10 years? How many five or ten years are there in life to test a judgment? These behaviors are fine from the perspective of classic value investing, but in my opinion, they are the worst investment opportunities.</p><p>The best investment is to make big bets when the “success rate and odds” are in your favor. This conclusion seems to be true nonsense, good and cheap stock, who wouldn&apos;t want? If you wait too long, there are too many variables and yields are not good. Second, when you judge an opportunity, do you dare to buy?</p><p>The easiest opportunities are always the worst, the best opportunities are the rarest and the hardest to grasp. Is there a way to overcome these two obstacles? This is the long-term value investment based on BTC and ETH, which is to combine the &quot;best opportunity&quot; and &quot;worst opportunity&quot; into a decent opportunity.</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.aicoin.com/xx/QeZ6Jlve">https://www.aicoin.com/xx/QeZ6Jlve</a></p><p>So this method to obtain excess returns, it is necessary to do two things: the first is to grasp the inflection point of the winning rate. Cryptocurrencies always accelerate in an overvalued state and continue to slump in an undervalued state. If the odds are high, we must buy at the inflection point of the winning rate, and if the odds are low, we must sell at the inflection point of the winning rate. The judgment of the inflection point is to test our ability to open a position. This requires an understanding of the crypto industry, rich information channels, and a study of market styles. To study the psychology of other investors requires strong gaming ability.</p><p>The second is the flexibility of the position. I usually are low position, only to the fundamentals and market sentiment resonance inflection point, just resolutely add to the position, this is the flexibility of position. This is what value investors in BTC and ETH do best.</p><p>The last round of many star fund holdings are basically nothing new, are well-known head items. The difference is that they have a different valuation system and positioning system, keeping as many positions at high odds as possible and as few at low odds as possible.</p><p>But even if long-term investing solves the problem of low odds, it will not solve the threat of a black swan event. If &quot;inflection point judgment&quot; is a matter of judgment, &quot;position flexibility&quot; is about risk control systems. Risk control system generally starts from position, limits the highest position of a single currency, the principle of heavy position attack often triggers the risk control system, especially institutions. 3AC is the best example of this slump.</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-understand-compounding-look-walter-schloss-2016-08-12">https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-understand-compounding-look-walter-schloss-2016-08-12</a></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-understand-compounding-look-walter-schloss-2016-08-12">https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-understand-compounding-look-walter-schloss-2016-08-12</a></p><p>The simpler the approach, the more demanding it is on the user, the more prone it is to &quot;survivor bias.&quot; Oddly enough, while no one is stupid enough to think that imitating Michael Jordan&apos;s moves will get you into the NBA, plenty of people think that imitating Warren Buffett&apos;s investing methods will make them big bucks. A black Swan is a risk for most people, but if you&apos;re on the side of most people&apos;s counterparties, it&apos;s a winning lottery ticket. .</p><p>The two core points of my investment system are:</p><ol><li><p>Pay attention to the prevention of small probability risks.</p></li><li><p>odds priority, seize the opportunity of asymmetric risk and return.</p><p>Classical value investment advocates &quot;certainty&quot; and requires investment to eliminate &quot;uncertainty&quot; as much as possible. The so-called certainty is just human self-deception, while &quot;random walk&quot; is the essence of capital market, and random phenomenon inevitably contains two kinds of interdependent events with small probability:</p><p>1.Asymmetric opportunities where the return far exceeds the risk.</p><p>2.Risky Black Swan events.</p></li></ol><p>And these are really the same kind of events. For every victim of a &quot;black swan event&quot;, there must be a beneficiary of a &quot;high odds low win rate&quot; investment system. Therefore, &quot;uncertainty&quot; is not only the source of risk but also the source of income. The small probability risk event caused by randomness is the cause of most people&apos;s loss, and seizing the opportunity of risk and income asymmetry is the king way to make money.</p><p>I believe that BTC and ETH are expected to be asymmetric opportunistic assets with much higher returns than risks, and at the same time they will survive this economic black swan cycle.</p>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>fatratkiller-2@newsletter.paragraph.com (FatRatKiller)</author>
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