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        <title>Herd Labs</title>
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            <title><![CDATA[The Dangers of Modern Vault Design: What Summer Finance/Block Analitica's $6m Loss Teaches Us]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/the-dangers-of-modern-vault-design-what-summer-financeblock-analiticas-dollar6m-loss-teaches-us</link>
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            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 13:25:08 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[I initially skipped over the Summer Finance hack since I thought it was a code or math bug - but then a few odd patterns caught my eye: All reports I saw implied this was a very simple exploit with an "accounting bug" - I knew this protocol team was reputable as they had previously worked with Maker/Sky, so there should be no simple exploits. The hack traces centered around a few tokens that had nothing to do with the protocol itself - not some weird synthetic/tranche/vault issuance bug. How ...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I initially skipped over the Summer Finance hack since I thought it was a code or math bug - but then a few odd patterns caught my eye:</p><ul><li><p>All reports I saw implied this was a very simple exploit with an "accounting bug" - I knew this protocol team was reputable as they had previously worked with Maker/Sky, so there should be no simple exploits.</p></li><li><p>The hack traces centered around a few tokens that had nothing to do with the protocol itself - not some weird synthetic/tranche/vault issuance bug. How was this token identified by the attacker but no one else?</p></li><li><p>There was not enough idle liquidity initially in the vault for the attacker to withdraw $6m but they somehow got around that. Vault withdraw-able liquidity is often managed by the curator, not the depositor.</p></li><li><p>The profit came from two vaults, not just one. No explanation I saw covered clearly why the second vault was impacted.</p></li></ul><p>It became quickly clear to me that there was no bug in the contracts and no operator keys phished - the losses were due to vault design working exactly as intended. Vault contracts are simple on their own, given the ERC4626 standard. But their natural growth over time leads to compounding price and liquidity risk exposures (and code/operations issues) that when manipulated together can cause large losses. And the build up of these risks is not a 0-day or a sudden upgrade/change, it comes over months and years of managing positions and evolving protocol patterns.</p><p>All of today's vault face the same risks,  that will only get worse as tokens and markets get more complex. So, it's important for us to collectively understand why and how this exploit happened.</p><blockquote><p><em>All this analysis is performed with Herd, using our </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" class="dont-break-out graf markup--anchor markup--anchor-readOnly" href="https://herd.eco/"><em>DoubleClick and MCP/CLI products</em></a><em>.</em></p><p><em>You can find the full technical report with addresses/transactions linked </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/forum/019f426e-a452-7000-9770-f21cca833567"><em>in the agent forum post</em></a><em>. </em></p><p><em>If you want visibility into all branches of your vaults and portfolios, with an agent to help you research and monitor positions - then reach out on </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://x.com/andrewhong5297"><em>twitter</em></a><em>, </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://t.me/andrewhong5297"><em>telegram</em></a><em>, or at </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="mailto:andrew@herd.eco"><em>andrew@herd.eco</em></a><em>.</em></p></blockquote><h1 id="h-part-1-the-stowaway-in-the-ark" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Part 1: The Stowaway in the Ark</h1><p>To set the stage, the two vaults in question were launched on Summer Finance by the risk curator <strong>Block Analitica </strong><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://forum.summer.fi/t/lazy-summer-protocol-risk-curator-announcement/77">in Feb/May 2025</a>. Curators are the ones who manage all strategies and positions in these vaults.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Lower LVUSDC:</strong> a "lower" risk vault that had $9.68m TVL pre-exploit</p></li><li><p><strong>Higher LVUSDC:</strong> a "higher" risk vault that had $482k TVL pre-exploit. This is not a risk tranche situation, these are two different vaults.</p></li></ul><p>Both vaults have been live for a little over a year at this point. All positions in the vault are managed in "ark" contracts which are individual solidity contracts for transferring and accounting (pricing) specific assets - be it a Morpho, Silo, or Gearbox vault or just plain USDC. This is a very common vault pattern typically called an "adapter". Across both vaults, there are sixty-seven arks set. Many of these are also vaults, which then have their own branching allocations depending on the protocol.</p><p>If we traverse across all of the child branches of the sixty-seven different arcs the two vaults allocate to, <strong>we'll find</strong> <strong>over 500 different underlying positions</strong>. Many of these child branches have correlated allocations as well, like 12 different arks allocating to the same WBTC/USDC market on Morpho.</p><p>Block Analitica put out a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://forum.summer.fi/t/lazy-summer-protocol-exploit-july-6-2026-ba-labs-risk-curator-retrospective/856">post after the exploit</a> explaining that they were never responsible for removing arks because it's a governance role that they don't have. While technically true, this is a common risk from </p><p>The balance sheet graph is a tangled mess that is barely legible in Herd. Those two big nodes on the right-middle side are the LVUSDC lower and higher vaults. To the left of them, we have all of the arks and then all of their subpositions. To the right, we have the holders of the vault share tokens.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/568c87f8356a8cb2aff3f334adc5f3d4283b7fd534be99354433c65108ab0d69.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1986" nextwidth="1592" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/tokens/graph/issuer/summer-finance?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGlnIiwic3VtbWVyLWZpbmFuY2UiXV19">Herd DoubleClick</a></figcaption></figure><p>Hidden three levels deep within one ark under the lower vault in this graph is a Silo vault (vgUSDC) that is lending to a Silo market against nbxUSD-155 which is an xUSD wrapper. This is from stream finance, which <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/how-stream-finance-s-collapse-exposed-defi-s-looping-yield-bubble">blew up in late 2025</a>. No borrower is going to repay their loan to get their xUSD back since its valueless now, so this vault is effectively illiquid (no one can redeem for USDC since its lent out in Silo). However, because of the high interest rate that continues to accrue in the market the value of the original $32.8m allocated by Silo vault into the market becomes worth $488m. So vgUSDC depositors are rich! They just can never withdraw it.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e2d205dce66bc3f28dbf34c6b8180bd10fb0146b472e12bb12a9e1ecc87f86f2.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1986" nextwidth="3328" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/tokens/graph/issuer/summer-finance?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGlnIiwic3VtbWVyLWZpbmFuY2UiXV19&amp;panel=node&amp;selectedNode=019f3c96-78b9-7000-a424-dd54c09a48e3">The key "bad debt" token underlying vgUSDC</a></figcaption></figure><p>Naturally, vgUSDC holders are gonna wanna exit ASAP, and are forced to sell on a DEX instead. This creates a very imbalanced pool that then warps the exchange rate such that buying vgUSDC is very cheap compared to its actual net asset value of <code>totalAssets()/totalSupply()</code>. Five wallets swapped USDT for xUSD ($14.5k spent) and then swapped through the imbalance balancer pool for vgUSD valued at $7m (but again, totally illiquid). This was done between March 29, 2026 and April 9, 2026. </p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/346bcc4d37d6de979ce1adc3aba7274a1b0f7f432edc60e36e750cbe5de696b0.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACAAAAALCAIAAACRcxhWAAAACXBIWXMAAAsTAAALEwEAmpwYAAADW0lEQVR4nH2TTWwbRRzFxySNnTS21zvr/fTuetdrr73bjT/WG9tre+PYcR3jCgRSSNqECBBROXBqSpOAROHSCpUPqXDpnQNqD0VCQkhAkhKp4oAEjQRCIpQUkLgjkJCKNGjWLWo5IP30Dv+R5s17MwOsUtWu1ouO69Sa5WpD0kxBySbUnKBiTfiaMoqCoiu6lcoVSUaOUkKMFglaJOIiycpEXBwP0ZNhlmTlGC0RcTFGY6JUgpUyoNs/ubn53pn1t7a23l0/+/by6itPndpYWt5cWtlaXN5YXN5YWtlcfe784qlzay9cXDi5DkAIjEaPTMZHJqixCA3AxOgElGsOaxoAjAWC5Ki/NHqUAkGSZGXw6vlrd/9E3+6j7/bRj9+jX39Chwfo8Af0823MnQM8uXOAfrmN7v6BvvkKgZFwNJ6gOIXilUiEy7bbF//efxPduowO1rbfh6wMGRlyScglSUaiExp4/vQbN/fQtau/ffTh79ufohvbaPdzzI6vu/f55OO/vthBV658DUbCEUqAbDJGixSvnj3cn3v95bEjcSioL966Mbj8TjBAQF7x6xKxgVVyG63jXnveKrmKXlCzxf+QzOR1y+n0TjRne67XfWQchiFP8erRcZh7bOXJDz4DIJS1bJYWuXxj4foe5BSSkUj/BNggl69O1zvt7mDKbih6UTPKD5LGatuVmdbcoNV51Gv3hwaQVyMRSvIWqhd2wuGwlDZphhHsuekLu5CVfYN/E9ROeIPVVqdfm+lbtpcruHhf00mbWDWjnJ2qDB5fzDte3vEas/1AiIxAHrJJkpEhI9Knd4K9SwSrEZIzuXYz1t2KEiTkFDg0EDQwPXh6/pkzFXfWKntmsZ7L13yD+wnMcipnT9fn8uWmVWq4M71AiMQJWBmXEOdJqQh610F3D/S/BJXXYhRH4gTyvQRCCrSfPffES5fcertY7RwrNTTDfqgis6xmSzVvvlRpTdnNavN4IAQjEF+yvwv2YHhZ0GqCWmBYblgOfkv+n8AJUnpBNx2z1LRszyi4fjkPkTmGixr2phllECQnCDbGSMPfRNASJaQZIUknVIpXCX/oI0UpASfQTMco1I2COyxHTk8lM/n/gRZSjJjmZJ2T7sFKGVbMYJUyePLAEifp/wDm0PhesLK5YwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" nextheight="896" nextwidth="2600" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://balancer.fi/pools/ethereum/pool/0xae255db04ba78519f33871c557d8fd6bafdb83bd">The main balancer pool vgUSDC was acquired through</a></figcaption></figure><p>All this sleuthing work required knowing how to navigate a balance graph of vault dependencies, and finding a way to acquire an illiquid asset cheaply. The Block Analitica curator had added about 1-2 arks a month to the vaults over the last year, and never removed any arks. So even after the Stream Finance crash last year, they didn't realize that this exposure remained in an ark. The people at Block Analitica are very smart and have a long history in DeFi, so again this looks easy to spot now but only when its in a graph like this. If you are clicking through Etherscan/Debank or trying to write SQL queries you will very simply miss these dependencies.</p><p>And remember, only the lower vault had exposure to vgUSDC. The higher vault is not allocated to that ark. With this context, we're ready to go through the actual exploit.</p><h1 id="h-part-2-attacking-the-fleet" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Part 2: Attacking the Fleet</h1><p>First, a conceptual lesson for how the hack works. <strong>I want to first emphasize that there was not a single bug in the Summer Finance code.</strong> This was a donation hack - a method we've seen before <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://mudit.blog/cream-hack-analysis/">(1)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://www.zellic.io/blog/euler-finance-exploit-analysis/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">(2)</a>, where some asset price is inflated by transferring tokens directly into a protocol instead of a normal deposit/mint. If pool A has 50 USDC and has 50 shares, then each share is worth $1. If I then transfer 50 USDC directly into the pool, the contract <code>totalAssets()</code> function will take balanceOf(USDC) and get 100 USDC and value each share at $2. </p><p>A vault holds many different tokens, so if you knew one of them was about to worthless you could:</p><ol><li><p>deposit to get shares at the current price</p></li><li><p>transfer your worthless token to the vault to increase the price</p></li><li><p>redeem your shares at the inflated price</p></li></ol><p>And that's exactly what the vgUSDC is for. The execution of steps is:</p><ol><li><p>Obtain majority ownership of the vault shares</p></li><li><p>Transfer vgUSDC to the silo vault ark directly, inflating the totalAssets by $7m</p></li><li><p>Redeem your full ownership of the shares. Because you were a majority owner, you gain proportionally the most from the totalAssets inflation.</p></li></ol><p>Now, here comes the second problem for the attacker. The lower vault had only $1.6m of withdrawable liquidity. So even with the $7m of profit, you'd only make it out with that $1.6m - this isn't ideal.</p><p>To get our answers, we have to look through <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/ethereum/tx/0x0db528c44f23fc7fa4544684a2fab81096450a14aae8bc89f42cd0592d43da12?isSimulated=false&amp;history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1sidCIsImV0aGVyZXVtIiwiMHgwZGI1MjhjNDRmMjNmYzdmYTQ1NDQ2ODRhMmZhYjgxMDk2NDUwYTE0YWFlOGJjODlmNDJjZDA1OTJkNDNkYTEyIl1dfQ">all the traces of the hack transaction</a> (everything below was done in one atomic tx).</p><p><strong>Why the flashloan of $65m?</strong></p><p>The lower vault had $9.6m in TVL. The $65m flashloan (one block loan) represents 86.4% of total shares when deposited, and if you then take the vgUSDC donation of $7.12m * 86.4% you get $6.15m.</p><p>This tells us exactly how much liquidity they thought they could get out.</p><p><strong>How was the available liquidity increased?</strong></p><p>Again, curators (Block Analitica in this case) are usually in full control of the available liquidity in their vaults. They will plan to have some percentage of the vault that is liquid so that depositors should have no trouble getting out.</p><p>However, Morpho V2 Vaults added a special new function to give users more control over liquidity. This is the <code>forceDeallocate</code> function. This allows ANYONE to pay a fee in shares of the vault (set by the curators of that vault) to force liquidity from an adapter/market into idle liquidity.</p><p>In the hack tx, we see the attacker depositing a minimal amount into the Morpho vaults that the lower vault arks are allocated to, and then calling <code>forceDeallocate</code> to move hundreds of thousands of dollars (sometimes millions) into idle liquidity as USDC. Some vaults don't have any fee set (like KPK prime) so they didn't even need to deposit to get shares.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/94980481d50f502c9c095b18b74dd0ba76263cb72f24d426c1832f351464b7a9.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1794" nextwidth="3456" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/ethereum/tx/0x0db528c44f23fc7fa4544684a2fab81096450a14aae8bc89f42cd0592d43da12?isSimulated=false&amp;history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1sidCIsImV0aGVyZXVtIiwiMHgwZGI1MjhjNDRmMjNmYzdmYTQ1NDQ2ODRhMmZhYjgxMDk2NDUwYTE0YWFlOGJjODlmNDJjZDA1OTJkNDNkYTEyIl1dfQ">See the "all transfer" button on the tx page</a></figcaption></figure><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/864562f92348181b2b384f8953ba2fc3a824457c6c64f25b170b08e7872977b4.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="496" nextwidth="1448" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">This is not transferred to the attacker or the lower/higher vaults yet, but made available for immediate redemption in the Morpho vault itself, to be pulled through ark contracts when redeem is called.</figcaption></figure><p>These are the four Morpho vaults deallocated from by the attacker, and their set penalties. These vaults did NOT face any bad debt or exploit, they just lost some liquidity. The penalties are a small cost to pay to then be able to withdraw this liquidity later. With that, the total withdrawable liquidity on the lower vault is ~$5.64m. The traces tell us they made $6.1m from the lower vault, so we're still short about $500k. Where did that last bit come from?</p><p>There was one other ark token spotted in the traces. This was a tokenized strategy vault (tsvSummerfiUSDC), deposited into before the lower vault deposit. This strategy deposits into LVUSDC itself, so the $490k deposited here goes right back into the attackers pocket in the withdrawal, leaving only 21k shares of the lower vault in the attackers wallet.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/8c478cf6a007eb31824936acdaa5b472b44e836c4d20b6ac8012e7139af3cf89.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="520" nextwidth="3456" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>This $490k nets out so their actual profit from the lower vault is <strong>$5.64m</strong>.</p><p><strong>What about the higher vault, how was it exploited?</strong></p><p>Well who holds the tsvSummerFiUSDC token? Its allocated to by an ERC4626ark held by the higher vault. So the higher vault actually IS allocated to the lower vault.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/bd242be65cbfeeae4a04736a7cd62ecf9860115b7218c0aa53261c5355fe8752.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACAAAAAKCAIAAABaL8vzAAAACXBIWXMAAAsTAAALEwEAmpwYAAABDUlEQVR4nLWRwWrDMAyG/QQ5qs5BjcGVYxzclSXFpPQgRh+hC/SJws7dMW/RvVruIxEbhR4Ga/udDNavX/ql8Mmo5bKIMZrCxBh96XOd398UABDRWjsZICIR7dodEWVZ1u7bUAUics750ouAiGKM8hYZzSwWGhHTjNSs1y8ppb7vmVkp5ZxTdrViZtH40ltr2317PQ7NyhijNOW/CFUQPwAgItVst+fz5/H4frl8DcOQUupOXXfqDm8HZpbprvV0g2SS61xrLeEAgCw3RcTMff8xjmNKSSm1ed0QUd3UdVP70sMPeuYfF1IAIAmoGUQMVZA/UxiZ6B6mjrKU2Pwe0BRGcsSHGNwiNk80eBTf9MqIFikae+AAAAAASUVORK5CYII=" nextheight="906" nextwidth="2936" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">The recursive holding of the lower vault by the higher vault through the term ark</figcaption></figure><p>If you've been following closely then you already know what's coming:</p><ol><li><p>They deposited into the higher vault with some of the lower vault redeemed funds (much less since the TVL was already much smaller only $482k)</p></li><li><p>They transferred the tsvSummerfiUSDC into the higher vault, inflating the value through that ark (the ERC4626ark)</p></li><li><p>The fourth Morpho vault they deallocated from earlier provides the extra $283k of liquidity on top of the $116k of available liquidity</p></li><li><p>Redeem out for $399k profit</p></li></ol><p>That token's value also would have been inflated by the gain in lower vault's total assets, since the deposit came before the vgUSDC transfer to the ark. However this token contract's totalAssets must be manually updated by a keeper through a <code>report()</code> function, so it wasn't manipulated in this pass.</p><p>With both these redemptions they can now repay the flashloans and the attack is over. <strong>$6.1m in profit made (on $14.5k in xUSD costs).</strong></p><h1 id="h-part-3-rafting-back-to-shore" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Part 3: Rafting Back to Shore</h1><p>After the hack, the team paused all contracts and also <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/ethereum/tx/0x7bead580b8d610e56949fb4162384e6e31dec24ad3b4668d8f4bddc345f14fd4?isSimulated=false&amp;history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1sidCIsImV0aGVyZXVtIiwiMHg3YmVhZDU4MGI4ZDYxMGU1Njk0OWZiNDE2MjM4NGU2ZTMxZGVjMjRhZDNiNDY2OGQ4ZjRiZGRjMzQ1ZjE0ZmQ0Il1dfQ">performed a sweep transaction</a> to move all of the vgUSDC out of the ark - effectively crystalizing losses for depositors as bad debt. In this case, the majority of the exploit value hit only one large depositor who got into the vault with an initial deposit of $7.8m that is now worth $3.13m. The rest of the impact is partially taken by the higher vault and a couple hundred other very small depositors. Luckily, there were no other vaults wrapping these two.</p><blockquote><p>Summer Finance has released their own postmortem with a higher level explanation of everything here <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://x.com/summerfinance_/status/2074522409869115468">on their Twitter account</a>.</p></blockquote><p>Interestingly, in the sweep transaction this 3/5 safe was able to grant all the permissions necessary to arbitrary move funds all in one go, no timelock or anything:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/625b1faed63b01c48f1054081df8f8ebfda31fe5e71043784ea5c35ec49bd073.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1756" nextwidth="3314" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/ethereum/tx/0x7bead580b8d610e56949fb4162384e6e31dec24ad3b4668d8f4bddc345f14fd4?isSimulated=false&amp;history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1sidCIsImV0aGVyZXVtIiwiMHg3YmVhZDU4MGI4ZDYxMGU1Njk0OWZiNDE2MjM4NGU2ZTMxZGVjMjRhZDNiNDY2OGQ4ZjRiZGRjMzQ1ZjE0ZmQ0Il1dfQ">Transaction Link</a></figcaption></figure><p>This kind of permissioning ends up raising even more eyebrows, since most of the exploits we've seen this year have been due to hacked keys/safes. So, it's always important to understand the roles and permissions across contracts too. Here's part of the dependencies graph for the lower vault:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/c6a98ae60f5d4d70148b0b9b693356cd045a70c419d4aac2879ec874e28594f5.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1980" nextwidth="3324" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/tokens/dependency/ethereum/0x98c49e13bf99d7cad8069faa2a370933ec9ecf17?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGlnIiwic3VtbWVyLWZpbmFuY2UiXV19&amp;panel=node&amp;selectedNode=019f3b22-509a-7000-b7a1-35081e4e3e18">Dependencies Graph</a></figcaption></figure><p>And this is just on the lower vault token contract itself. Think about all the child arks and those 500+ positions again - can you imagine then researching and monitoring all the deps on top of those, which can constantly change? Welcome to the new DeFi that we've created.</p><h1 id="h-the-biggest-risks-for-the-next-trillion-dollars-of-vaults" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The Biggest Risks for the Next Trillion Dollars of Vaults</h1><p>It's unfortunate to see great protocols/teams suffer losses, and it hits doubly hard when they already <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://blog.summer.fi/arbitrum-usdc-vault-post-mortem-what-happened-and-what-comes-next/">faced bad debt on another vault </a>due to Stream finance falling over last year. There are always multiple waves to exposure, the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/the-strc-depeg-the-price-is-already-here-its-just-not-evenly-distributed">pricing and delays/operations of markets during stress</a> as well as follow on exposures which can take weeks to months to fully materialize (as we see here today).</p><p>Our team has spent the last year analyzing the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/measuring-defi-contagion-through-token-wrappers-and-protocols">full graph structures</a> of hundreds of different tokens and vaults, and there are four obvious patterns gaining traction that increase the risk of this happening again:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Every token is now a vault: </strong>We're seeing more and more "vault" wrapping "vault" like structures. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/the-strc-depeg-the-price-is-already-here-its-just-not-evenly-distributed">Looking at apxUSD</a> is a good example of how many levels of wrappers you can end up with that all have different behaviors. There's always more yield to be had, with RWAs, risk tranches, interest rate mechanisms, etc. I just call these all "tokens" now because every token is just a vault. USDS is a vault. USDe is a vault. This sixty-seven ark type of structure is becoming more common.</p></li><li><p><strong>Pricing is not just a single oracle problem: </strong>Vault accounting will continue to get more complex given layered wrappers. A lot of teams are still spending their times on oracles, but in most real depegs the oracles will go stale and are mismanaged. And then its up to the downstream accounting to see what fallbacks and other pricing options have been implemented where to keep the protocol/vault alive.</p></li><li><p><strong>More counterparties and timings are involved in todays tokens: </strong>A lot of tokens now have async redemptions and queues, so accounting matters even during the time between requesting and claiming a redemption. Even more new attack vectors will come from this.</p></li><li><p><strong>Everyone wants instant liquidity facilities: </strong>There are tons of teams working on liquidity facilities for different types of assets, providing backstops to markets/vaults. As we've seen with flashloans and now force deallocations - all instant liquidity is a potential exit vector for attackers.</p></li></ul><p>These risk patterns are only going to get worse over time as more assets and money come onchain. I would argue that these risks are no longer the "security" risks we've traditionally thought of but now proper financial and economic risks. The same that any large bank or fund would have to responsibly manage. I believe this is the next wave of risk management we are about to face as an industry - and it isn't just a code problem.</p><p>But we are hiding all the complexity in the shadows, behind that cute one click button/number input that says "7% yields here!" Then pointing at curators when things go wrong. Vaults are gaining more and more mainstream distribution now with stablecoins and fintech deals, on protocols and platforms that do not want to take on the burden of assessing any of that risk.</p><p>At a time when everyone is leaning into the chaos of complexity to chase more TVL, I believe all players need to recognize our responsibility to depositors and the industry at large. </p><p><strong>I don't care if you are issuer, curator, allocator, protocol, or an app/aggregator - transparency is everyone's responsibility. Let's do better. </strong>We should set the right reporting standards ourselves, before the SEC or anyone else does it for us. Especially if the risks are hard to continuously find even for the top curators in the space.</p><blockquote><p><em>Again, all analysis is performed using our </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" class="dont-break-out graf markup--anchor markup--anchor-readOnly" href="https://herd.eco/"><em>DoubleClick and MCP/CLI products</em></a><em>. </em></p><p><em>I'm around if you want to chat, you can reach out on </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://x.com/andrewhong5297"><em>twitter</em></a><em>, </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://t.me/andrewhong5297"><em>telegram</em></a><em>, or at </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="mailto:andrew@herd.eco"><em>andrew@herd.eco</em></a><em>.</em></p></blockquote><br>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>herd-labs@newsletter.paragraph.com (Andrew Hong)</author>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The STRC Depeg: The price is already here – it's just not evenly distributed]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/the-strc-depeg-the-price-is-already-here-its-just-not-evenly-distributed</link>
            <guid>vHrsKD32fyfcEsc7TjVD</guid>
            <pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2026 17:03:39 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Microstrategy's $STRC is a $30bn market cap stock that dipped 20% in the last month, as the company sold Bitcoin for the first time in history at the end of May. This has affected tokenized versions of the stock, such as STRCx, sUSDat, and apxUSD. Let's go through how a stock like this truly gets leveraged onchain, and the counterparty/pricing exposures involved.]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Microstrategy's $STRC is a $30bn market cap stock that dipped 20% in the last month, as the company sold Bitcoin for the first time in history at the end of May. This was always marketed as a safe money market fund of sorts, with a variable 11.5% annual yield paid through dividends.</p><p>Well, this time it was the price that was variable (as bitcoin today crossed below $60k):</p><figure float="none" width="561px" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/cc26519eb4ee2a40a8143f2df9a83333fac37e320e37a066c722226cddf6a24d.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="666" nextwidth="1136" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">June 25, 2026</figcaption></figure><p>However, what piqued my curiosity is the effects on all the tokenized versions of it. When price is crafted in smart contract code and not just a simple order book, you will observe all kinds of drifting behaviors.</p><p>There are three main tokens that are backed by STRC:</p><ul><li><p><strong>STRCx ($200m FDV):</strong> Strategy PP Variable xStock is a tokenized security that provides on-chain economic exposure to Strategy Inc.’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock. The asset is backed 1-to-1 by the underlying preferred stock, which is held in traditional custody by a regulated issuer.</p></li><li><p><strong>apxUSD ($300m FDV): </strong>Synthetic dollar backed by a basket of preferred shares<strong>, </strong>which is 80% STRC and 20% cash "equivalents". Yield is passed through to apyUSD in a vault that wraps apxUSD.</p></li><li><p><strong>sUSDat ($80m FDV): </strong>Yield-bearing vault token built on the ERC-4626 standard. It represents a user's share of a managed pool of digital credit exposure, where yield is generated from Saturn's STRC holdings and passed through to stakers automatically. It's 90% backed by STRC and 10% by USDai which is backed by M0 stablecoins.</p></li></ul><p><strong>We will be breaking down how each token builds yield and leverage through different wrappers/protocols, and then the exposure and pricing chains derived from that graph.  ApxUSD is the most complex/highest value graph so we will focus there.</strong></p><blockquote><p><em>All of the following analysis is performed with Herd, using our </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/"><em>DoubleClick and MCP/CLI products</em></a><em>. Please get in touch with the team for access and/or a demo.</em></p><p><em>None of this is financial advice.</em></p></blockquote><h1 id="h-how-the-apxusd-graph-is-structured" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">How the apxUSD graph is structured</h1><p>The word "graph" here refers to our "Balance Sheet Graph" product, which you can <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/measuring-defi-contagion-through-token-wrappers-and-protocols">read more about in this article</a>. In short, it shows recursively what all the assets backing a token are as well as where it is being used/wrapped after issuance (liabilities). For apxUSD, that graph looks like this:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3a2bac8f60cb607df88646034df5b005e3e75a5b058f144c1095f604eaef23cf.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1988" nextwidth="2072" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/tokens/graph/ethereum/0x98a878b1cd98131b271883b390f68d2c90674665?panel=balance-sheet">Link to apxUSD graph</a> (view here is truncated)</figcaption></figure><p>On the left hand side we can see their reported reserves (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://accountable.apyx.fi/">source</a>). There are levels to transparency, and we have no way of really knowing where they are holding these funds or all their team wallets unfortunately. The DoubleClick agent has done some sleuthing  to find the STRCx reserve which accounts for roughly 1/3 of their reported STRC position, in an <code>0x37b0779a66edc491df83e59a56d485835323a555</code> safe. This safe will come into play later in this article.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/b6b028f1a9eb462296b0ff4d6000d1c8720a2c70d9360be2ef0b1fa3446a0ac4.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACAAAAAHCAIAAADmsdgtAAAACXBIWXMAABYlAAAWJQFJUiTwAAABvElEQVR4nGPgYGeXFBax0DfIzEjNSE1UkJdRBgN1dTUJCQkGGGBjY4Mz4GxMWWQF3NzcIL6kqJi7skZHRumr3/9PX3saEBobGxuTlZmRl5cXGxtraGjg7OTk5uZqY2Nj52Dn4GBvZmZqZmZmY2Pj6OhoY2Pj4+NjY2NjZmYGYUDYZmZmbm5u8vLyIAsYWZglJcS76luLq5vyy2r6J07qam+vqmuurKxub2tr7+rp6p/a3NLW3d1dXlTc0d7d3T+ppqqqvr4+Ly+vvr5++vTp9WDQCgOVlZUQWagFbGxsIiIiVbU1jQ0gRavnT7908lRF2+zc3IKpkyet236krmdhTX1TXVN9f2XN7P5Fkxau7e3pqq+vT0pKqqys7O7uhlhQX19fUlLS2toKYcfGxqqrq0MtEBAQKMjLaWwAqSgpKeub0FdXXdHa2to/YYK1tZWpsZGzk5OZmZm5lYWevq6FuZmjo6OZGZSEA0dHR0NDQwjD0dFRWlqam5sbFBkQHwREF9i4Bvn6eLu5uYmIiEiAgYiICDcG4OTi4ubmgmjGlIUDAQEBERERaLwzMjIJi8sIiUgIgAFa8iAPwI0AAEq+nW21MkbyAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC" nextheight="364" nextwidth="1760" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/forum/019f01b1-dd0c-7000-8484-13f39990d881?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGZwIiwiMDE5ZjAxYjEtZGQwYy03MDAwLTg0ODQtMTNmMzk5OTBkODgxIl1dfQ">Forum Post</a></figcaption></figure><p>The rest of the cash/POL/inventory holdings can be partially tracked onchain on the liabilities side actually, as we will find many Apyx team wallets/safes holding positions throughout other protocols where the token is used. If you're unfamiliar with "wrapper" tokens and defi protocols, <strong>I highly recommend reading </strong><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://read.cryptodatabytes.com/p/unwrapping-defi-the-evolution-of"><strong>this overview of how and why tokens are wrapped</strong></a><strong> first</strong>. When I say a token is "utilized" I mean it is being deposited into one protocol (smart contracts) and then a new position "wrapper" is issued/tracked on top that can be utilized again.</p><h3 id="h-the-yield-wrapper-apxusd-and-apyusd" class="text-2xl font-header !mt-6 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The Yield Wrapper: apxUSD and apyUSD</h3><p>The most basic wrapper in our graph is depositing apxUSD into a vault that gives you apyUSD in return. If you look at the right side of the balance sheet graphic above, you'll see that about 45% of apxUSD supply is in this vault. This is because you want one stablecoin token that maintains a $1 peg, and the another token that can accrue rewards as yield. Yield accrues through three steps, detailed below:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/79121643d13bcfefcb48a80aa3bd3faa437a43a616c7c5626e19cc99d4d90dd9.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1148" nextwidth="1760" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/forum/019f050c-11c4-7000-b7c5-800bbe7a1439?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGZwIiwiMDE5ZjA1MGMtMTFjNC03MDAwLWI3YzUtODAwYmJlN2ExNDM5Il1dfQ"><strong>Forum Post</strong></a></figcaption></figure><p>This stable and staked/yield token combo is very common practice in crypto, see USDS/sUSDS, BOLD/sBOLD, cUSD/stcUSD, etc.</p><p>In this case, both apxUSD/apyUSD are utilized in a lot of the same protocols, with the primary difference in secondary market (DEX) liquidity. There is a single DEX pool for apyUSD that is in Curve pool as an apxUSD/apyUSD pair (~$3m of liquidity), while apxUSD has  Curve, Uniswap, and Pancake pools (~$11m of liquidity). The depth of liquidity is actually half that value since half the pool is in apxUSD or apyUSD, so as you can see there isn't actually that much liquidity to sell in these pools.</p><p>The main exit mechanism from apyUSD to apxUSD is through the UnlockReceipt contract which is seen carrying $40m of tokens waiting to get out. It has a fee paid for exiting early (3.4% fee if after 3 days, decays to 0 in 20 days). Then you still have to sell it on a DEX to get USDC back - but there are also a few cases of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/forum/019ed7d5-d21f-7165-8228-e36f6e4a9bb2?history=eyJpdGVtcyI6W1siZGZwIiwiMDE5ZWQ3ZDUtZDIxZi03MTY1LTgyMjgtZTM2ZjZlNGE5YmIyIl1dfQ">large holders doing OTC swaps</a> with the Apyx team directly for STRCx.</p><h2 id="h-tranches-and-zero-coupon-bonds" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Tranches and Zero-coupon Bonds</h2><p>Now that we have a yield source, people will want as much of that yield as possible as safely as possible. This happens primarily in two steps:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Risk Tranches:</strong> To protect investors in the case of a downside in STRC price, apyUSD is deposited into protocols like Royco to create a junior and senior tranche. In the event of a price drop, the junior tranche eats losses first (all the way to 0) before senior tranche does. This is still a fairly new mechanic so not may tokens have picked it up yet. Only $5m of the $125m of apyUSD is allocated through tranches.</p></li><li><p><strong>Zero-coupon Bonds: </strong>This is the most popular tokenization strategy in crypto now, which is placing a yield bearing token into Pendle<strong> </strong>to get a principal and yield token (PT/YT). the PT starts off with a discounted future value built into it, and YT starts at 0. These have set maturities, so at the time of maturity one PT = one underlying token and the YT = the yield realized during the duration. Most of apxUSD/apyUSD directly goes into Pendle.</p></li></ul><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fc9b35ac7a0b29b7ea037733d777193b7d6c8a1ba724f9f1b9bc7508ce98ed8c.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1672" nextwidth="2592" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">Zoom in on the portion from apyUSD and SY-apxUSD of the graph, yellow nodes are the Royco tranches</figcaption></figure><p>To learn how to read this graph, consider each dark gray node a "manager" which could be a protocol or just a wallet. Each light gray node is a "position" issued/backed by the manager. So the further right we go, the more nested the positions are. But they can still be unwrapped all the way to get back (left) to apxUSD.</p><p>These all obviously offer varying yields with different risk profiles based on time and liquidity. Now the missing piece of the puzzle is leverage.</p><h2 id="h-lending-markets-and-vaults" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Lending Markets and Vaults</h2><p>If you believe that apxUSD is stable and apyUSD is monotonically increasing with dividends, then you would consider it safe to borrow USDC against it to then utilize somewhere else. This is made possible through Morpho markets, which define individual pairs of collateral and borrow tokens like a USDC/apyUSD market (deposit apyUSD as collateral to borrow USDC). Interesting enough, there are plenty of apxUSD/apyUSD* variant markets too. </p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/261e2c894de176702a68da45482831939d747471b62a5d905923fd7179dc9562.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1798" nextwidth="2104" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">Zoom in of the Morpho Markets and Vaults, with the combos of USDC/PT-*, apxUSD/apyUSD, apxUSD/PT-*</figcaption></figure><p>That first yellow node is the Morpho Blue singleton, and then each position coming off of it is a different market pair. To the right of that are the managers supplying/borrowing from those markets, with the ones that are multiple hops being Morpho vaults belonging to different curators.</p><p>Vaults allow users to deposit USDC that they then lend out to different market pairs or hold PT exposure directly. This takes us to the end of the graph (of course you could then keep iterating to see who the largest suppliers of those vaults are and what else they supply to, but we won't do that here).</p><p><em>Fun fact, one Safe accidentally supplied to a Morpho market buts </em><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/ethereum/tx/0x0059fc47ba71f427fb91927183647e89d702acfb9ded42661bc44611463643e6"><em>with the behalfOf set to the Morpho Blue contract itself</em></a><em> so those funds are lost forever (or until liquidation). It borrowed  most of it back out for now.</em></p><h1 id="h-understanding-exposure-and-pricing" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Understanding Exposure and Pricing</h1><p>Most holders and suppliers have gotten out over the last few weeks, but some of the primary ones were vaults like Lulo, Termmax, Beefy, Hyperithm, and Apyx team vault. A majority chunk of lending supply and DEX liquidity actually comes from Apyx team safes - remember the inventory/POL liquidity on the assets side from the start of the article? Well, here is where it shows up.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/192e70f178ab683e5848673e05cc3ae06615352405c2acce6a3f043ba8eef589.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1610" nextwidth="2210" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">That safe in the right is holding ALL of the other positions <span data-name="eyes" class="emoji" data-type="emoji">👀</span> and that's just one of the team addresses</figcaption></figure><p>When the depeg first occurred the first week of June, the team had to move fast to try and maintain the peg during user outrage. Diversity of liquidity providers matters a lot when you have a token/graph this complex, since your exits could be locked out very quickly!</p><p>Here's a timeline of the Apyx team activity from known team wallets:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/b4ff84263862ad814fc350d269e01ceb16f422ecaf114cf259d5577cd14d6ba3.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1158" nextwidth="1602" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class=""><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/forum/019f09e3-2ec8-7000-949e-09122010bd2d">All team addresses and deeper activity breakdowns in forum post</a></figcaption></figure><p>On top of counterparty exposures, you also have pricing difference across ALL of these positions. Here is part of a table detailing some of the main feeds, the current price, formula, and who/how it can be changed. </p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/abe967b33ec1f26635e98472ccf618ff578427c3e32d757ad93878f977c973ea.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1676" nextwidth="2100" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">there are like 15 more feeds i've cut off here already</figcaption></figure><h1 id="h-what-happens-next" class="text-4xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">What Happens Next?</h1><p>Once you've gone deep on the graph above and the counterparty/price exposures that play a part in scenario modeling, you can make some informed decisions. It's worth taking a look at <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://herd.eco/doubleclick/tokens/graph/ethereum/0xd166337499e176bbc38a1fbd113ab144e5bd2df7">saturn's sUSDat graph</a> too, which has similar structures all around just less POL and instead actual stablecoin backing with M0. and then they use Strata for tranching instead of Royco, but similar risk profiles.</p><p> If you believe that STRC is going to recover, how you choose to arbitrage or go long depends on your expected recovery period. <strong>Here's some agent analysis on opportunities, again this is not financial advice:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Best convex trade: <code>PT-ROY-JT-apyUSD 5NOV2026</code> or spot <code>ROY-JT</code></p><ul><li><p><code>ROY-JT</code> is around <strong>$0.705</strong>, so par recovery is ~<strong>+42%</strong>.</p></li><li><p><code>PT-ROY-JT</code> spot is shown around <strong>$0.5503</strong>, so if the underlying junior recovers enough before/through maturity, the upside is much larger, ~<strong>+82% to $1</strong> before fees/slippage.</p></li><li><p><strong>The catch</strong>: this is path-dependent. Royco’s 30-day window is not price smoothing; it is a recoverable-loss window. If losses crystallize before recovery, then any gains after that go through the normal utilization yield split between junior and senior.. There are 11.5 days left (as of June 27th).</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Looks good but is NOT the same: <code>jrUSDat</code></p><ul><li><p>It is the clearest “STRC recovery levered tranche” in the set. <code>jrUSDat</code> is around <strong>$0.3464</strong>, structurally ~<strong>6x</strong> exposed because it is the first-loss piece under <code>srUSDat</code>. However Strata does not have Royco’s 30-day recoverable-loss window. So if STRC/sUSDat NAV later recovers, that recovery is treated as new tranche economics flowing through the waterfall, not a rewind of the old loss. Senior gets priority/protected yield first; junior only gets the residual upside after senior claims, fees, and coverage mechanics.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Cleanest direct thesis: <code>STRCx</code> </p><ul><li><p>STRCx has <code>underlyingPerShare = 1.05182045</code>, so STRC at $100 implies about <strong>$105.18/STRCx share-value unit</strong>. Against the graph market slot of <strong>$77.04</strong>, that is roughly <strong>+36.5%</strong></p></li></ul></li></ul><p>Thanks for reading, and stay safe out there :)</p><br><br>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>herd-labs@newsletter.paragraph.com (Andrew Hong)</author>
            <enclosure url="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d5f273c4bdb38e015881fd7bcf24696d7661e8b261ea321a414041235d24c8fa.jpg" length="0" type="image/jpg"/>
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            <title><![CDATA[Mapping Contagion and Counterparties in the Sea of Tokens and Protocols]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@herd-labs/measuring-defi-contagion-through-token-wrappers-and-protocols</link>
            <guid>SYNzJQZNSjVz40LYgwOC</guid>
            <pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 16:26:54 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Herd enables continuous due diligence of tokens by modeling vaults like Steakhouse on Morpho and RWAs in Centrifuge and Midas as live balance sheet graphs revealing hidden contagion and operation risks.]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>The Herd team will be in New York during ETHConf June 8-14, we'll be co-hosting an event at Chelsea Piers on the 9th. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://luma.com/courtside-at-chelsea-">RSVP here</a>!</p></blockquote><h2 id="h-the-death-of-one-time-token-due-diligence" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">The Death of One-time Token Due Diligence</h2><p>Tokens are increasingly becoming the centerpoint of complexity instead of protocols, which have become more modular and configurable. The surface area of a given vault can easily balloon to 300+ contracts with constantly changing operations across underlying tokens (rotating EOAs, upgraded contracts, new bridges, etc).</p><p>In the first five months of 2026, we've seen the consequences of this bloated operational complexity with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://defillama.com/hacks">almost a billion dollars worth of hacks</a>. Notable hacks include Resolv in early March (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://gist.github.com/andrewhong5297/cace9842972a09c9ea7371da6a3486ab">USR mint hack</a>), then Drift (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://x.com/andrewhong5297/status/2039619891662029007">multisig hacked</a>) and KelpDAO (<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://gist.github.com/andrewhong5297/db8dc1b1b45a55a598a9581749b4f1ce">rsETH bridge hack</a>) in April. Hackers would then route the hacked tokens through other protocols to gain exit liquidity, creating contagion affecting billions of dollars of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://x.com/MonetSupply/status/2045689534877213083">other tokens in places like Aave.</a></p><p><strong>Throughout this difficult period, two questions have been asked by everyone:</strong></p><ul><li><p>How can I continuously due diligence these tokens, instead of one time reviews?</p></li><li><p>What is the contagion to my portfolio from a market shock/hack on another token?</p></li></ul><p>This can be measured with the right risk models, which are typically required and regulated in traditional finance for examinations and reporting. However, we don't have any standards or legal frameworks for this in defi yet. Most the tooling we have has traditionally been security focused, with transaction/address screening products. Some expert teams have worked with protocols like Aave on one-time research and analysis of tokens, but this is no longer enough.</p><p>You can think of modeling risk like navigating a map, where factors like construction, weather, and traffic conditions all affect your decision making. You could go off of just what you see and feel on the road, but your visibility into the pathways will be poor. We decided to start out by building out the token map. But every token is structured completely differently - there is no "ERC20" for all the composable dependencies of a token. So, we leveraged our own MCP/CLI and built a research harness around it that can map out and maintain an "asset liability graph" for any token.</p><h2 id="h-herds-token-balance-sheet-graph" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Herd's Token Balance Sheet Graph</h2><p>Every balance sheet has two sides, <strong>assets</strong> and <strong>liabilities.</strong> We define assets as all the positions backing a given token. Liabilities are the issued token itself, and what protocols it's being used in and re-wrapped.</p><p>This approach isn't inherently novel, and a version for MakerDAO/DAI (now Sky and USDS) <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.13399v1">has been written about before</a>. Having a balance sheet modeled out is required to then model common metrics such as a Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Capital at Risk Ratio (CARR). The Federal Reserve then comes in to test bank models with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), setting different stress assumptions each year.</p><p>Our key difference in approach is that we recursively breakdown every position (line item) to get its underlying positions and who manages them to create a balance sheet graph. Now, let's look at an example graph we built with our agent.</p><p>iUSD is a yield-bearing stablecoin issued by <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://stats.infinifi.xyz/">InfiniFi</a>. Here's a portion of their token graph:</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/31954a484dc71713528cb9623d62e61fcd5db9097ded585a29abd19ca3afbc72.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1628" nextwidth="2880" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">Reach out for beta access, or <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://docsend.com/view/s/833t4yhxejkesvwj">access the preview pdf</a></figcaption></figure><p>Each graph also comes with an aggregated balance sheet view that can be exported as a json/csv/pdf. All data can be queried live, and the agent has many monitors set for continuously researching changes in underlying positions/managers.</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6479fc19daa79bd81f84d60e795359e83b9c8b835e72bec126ec6e1392936ae8.png" blurdataurl="data:image/png;base64,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" nextheight="1628" nextwidth="1436" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="">Reach out for beta access, or <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://docsend.com/view/s/833t4yhxejkesvwj">access the preview pdf</a></figcaption></figure><p>Both sides of the balance sheet are sources of contagion risk. On the asset side, ~43% of iUSD's reserves are off-chain Fasanara Capital positions. If there's a credit event, those can't be liquidated onchain. On the liability side, ~52% of the supply is re-deployed as siUSD into Morpho, Pendle, Silo, and Euler, with another ~33% locked in weekly tranches (liUSD-1w through 13w). A freeze on the assets doesn't stay contained, it creates redemption pressure that cascades through every protocol holding siUSD downstream. Our graph shows you exactly where the shock enters and how it travels.</p><h2 id="h-building-transparent-risk-models-for-every-token" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Building Transparent Risk Models For Every Token</h2><p>To create risk models, you need to simulate onchain functionalities across contracts with different actors. The balance graph gives us the starting "map" to explore, but it doesn't capture all possible paths and counterparties involved. Our agent can double click into each node and edge in the balance sheet graph and further research sets of functions for managing everything from deposits, redemptions, and configurations.</p><p>Here's a function graph that shows who can call the mint function on USDC on ethereum (a few EOAs and then a few Circle bridge contracts):</p><figure float="none" data-type="figure" class="img-center"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d8100e3a6218b70856901a97b006ace5dd5a4f05d22a04e80b812a2ba31e953d.png" alt="" class="image-node embed"><figcaption htmlattributes="[object Object]" class="hide-figcaption"></figcaption></figure><p>Together, the balance sheet and function graphs give you everything needed for an accurate exposure risk model. Both need to stay live as positions get rebalanced, contracts are upgraded, new managers are added. The agent monitors and maintains every layer continuously, flagging changes and tweaking model assumptions as they happen.</p><p>Our product directly answers both earlier questions. For continuous due diligence, the graph is maintained automatically by agents with human review - no more one-time reviews that are stale the next week. For contagion, when KelpDAO's rsETH bridge was hacked in April, any token with rsETH in its balance sheet graph had a traceable exposure. With the graph you see immediately whether that shows up as a liquidity crunch during a run, bad debt for which depositors, or cascading liquidations as sell pressure pushes correlated collateral below LLTV.</p><h2 id="h-work-with-herd" class="text-3xl font-header !mt-8 !mb-4 first:!mt-0 first:!mb-0">Work with Herd</h2><p>At Herd, we've worked closely with vault curators like Steakhouse and Chaos Labs using our <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="https://docs.herd.eco/herd-mcp/introduction">Explorer and MCP/CLI</a>. This new product is the next evolution of leveraging AI to manage the complexity of crypto at scale while remaining accurate.</p><p>We're currently working with a few design partners on custom risk models for their tokens and portfolios. We'll have more to reveal soon and are giving out beta invites to anyone actively issuing or managed tokenized assets. Subscribe to this newsletter to get our updates, I'll be posting research into interesting tokens each week as well.</p><blockquote><p>If you want to model token/portfolio risks or have ideas for working together, please reach out to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow ugc" class="dont-break-out" href="mailto:andrew@herd.eco">andrew@herd.eco</a> (andrewhong5297 on twitter/tg) for a product demo.</p></blockquote><br>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>herd-labs@newsletter.paragraph.com (Andrew Hong)</author>
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