Despite the advances in attribution science, some experts argue that climate scientists still underestimate the impact of their conclusions - an important factor in enabling attribution science to move out of academic circles and into public processes such as court trials. A related problem is that the evidence cited in court often lags behind the latest scientific advances. In a 2021 study in Nature Climate Change, Autor and her collaborators examined 73 climate lawsuits from around the world and found that the climate evidence cited in the cases was 10 years out of date. "I know it takes some time for new scientific advances to filter through to the courtroom," Otto added, "but it should be faster."

The WWA's work has influenced at least one court decision. The team's study of Australia's 2019-2020 wildfires suggests that climate change has increased the overall risk of seasonal fires by eight times. In 2021, when an Australian court found that the NSW Environmental Protection Department had failed to effectively protect the environment, they cited this finding and ordered the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Extreme weather is becoming more frequent, but keeping up with and adapting to this change is not easy. This past winter, a series of powerful atmospheric river storms brought heavy rain and snow to the U.S. state of California, killing more than 20 people. However, the WWA decided not to study these events, in part because the demand for attribution research far exceeded their current capacity. "It's a small organization with limited financial support," said Michael Weiner, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in the United States.

Like WWA, Weiner and collaborator Kevin Reed of Stony Brook University in the United States tried to give attribution analysis in almost real time. They analyzed Hurricane Ian in September 2022, when it was still raging in Florida. They completed their analysis quickly, in part because they had just published a paper on the 2020 hurricane season, which found that climate change caused the season to be 5 percent wetter than usual. All they had to do was put the data about "Ian" into the previous numerical model. In the end, the team decided to skip the lengthy peer review process and publish the report in the first place, which claimed that climate change may have increased Ian's rainfall by 10 percent.

Weiner often had to turn down requests, which led him to publish a paper in the journal plos Climate in 2022 arguing that many attribution studies could now be considered routine and should bravely move out of academia. Attribution science is mature, and "it should be businesslike like weather forecasting," Weiner said. Otto also welcomes the change. "I would really like this project to be taken over by NOAA," she said, "or by the European Union's Earth observation program, the Copernicus program." Not only will this allow the scientific community to do more, but it will also influence national decisions more directly."

In the United States, NOAA recently launched a pilot project, led by David Easterlin, to develop the application potential of attribution science. NOAA's advantages are clear: it has access to real-time data from weather stations across the country and can use climate models from Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Because of NOAA's good reputation, Easterlin wants "NOAA to announce to the public: 'Climate change made this event 15 percent worse.'" This will likely change the minds of many climate change skeptics."

Susan Moser, a social scientist and consultant who focuses on climate adaptation, said that as attribution science continues to evolve, it has an important role to play in helping society deal with a variety of increasing risks, from informing building codes to warning about carbon reductions. Professional engineering societies have moved in the direction of climate-resilient design, such as building wider seawalls to accommodate rising sea levels. She noted that states like California are looking at how to incorporate climate information into their infrastructure planning, a reform that will play an important role in the state's rebuilding efforts after recent floods.

For some countries, it will be easier than others to mobilize funds to fight climate change. To this end, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) established a "loss and damage" fund in 2022, hoping to help low-income countries with relatively small greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible. However, a clear definition of "climate-induced damage" is still lacking.

If the science of attribution had been developed decades ago, when the problem of climate change was just becoming known to the general public, using attribution science to explain today's extreme weather events might not have been as daunting as it is now, Otto said. Today, her work has become like a race against time, after all, "people are suffering and there is nothing they can do about the consequences."

(Translation: Du Yixin, an engineer at the Shaanxi Institute of Meteorological Science, mainly engaged in atmospheric environment research and meteorological science popularization)

Guangming Daily (Page 14, August 17, 2023)

When WWA first started, it could only analyze a few incidents per year. Now, they discuss disaster events in online meetings almost every week. With limited resources, they must prioritize which incidents are most worthy of investigation. Many of the scientists in the group are volunteers who take the initiative to find time to participate in WWA activities outside of their regular jobs such as teaching and research.

To determine which disaster events are worth investing in, WWA has developed evaluation criteria for different types of extreme weather events to assess the possible humanitarian consequences of each event. For heat waves, for example, it takes into account deaths associated with them, whether the affected area is densely populated, and whether the area is too vulnerable. WWA tends to study events that cause harm to more people, but is also trying to cover more diverse areas. "We don't want to study what's happening just because we happen to work in the global North." Sara Tring-Qiu, a climatologist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Otto agrees that pushing the boundaries of science is also an important factor in WWA's calculations. In fact, the WWA decided not to study the extreme Arctic cold snap that affected millions of people in the United States during the Christmas and New Year holidays in 2022 precisely because they had previously studied similar North American cold snaps and did not believe the event would yield new findings.

The South American heat wave caught the team's attention because it met several of the WWA's criteria for heat waves worthy of concern: record-breaking temperatures at the start of the summer and the vulnerability of the affected areas. At the end of November 2022, scientists held their first video conference to discuss these heat waves.

"The Argentine heat wave is rapidly expanding northward." Says Maza Falberg of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center. "Is this related to La Nina?" Otto asked. La Nina refers to an abnormal air and sea circulation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can increase the probability of heat waves in the Argentine region. After a fast-paced conversation, the team decided to contact scientists in South America for further information and quickly scheduled another meeting for early December. Twelve minutes later, the call ended, and everyone quickly logged off.

Where possible, the WWA works with local experts, expecting them to tell us which datasets will give the most comprehensive picture of the region, or how best to gather meteorological information about the region. At the meeting in early December, Juan Antonio Rivera, a climatologist at Argentina's Institute of Snow, Glacier and Environmental Sciences, joined the online session from his office in Mendoza. Recent droughts have affected northern Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, but most of these regions lack dense networks of meteorological observations, he said. One of the first tasks, therefore, is to see what data are available to analyze changes in drought conditions over time. He can help WWA teams tap into information that is difficult for European scholars to find, or not available due to language barriers.

In this video conference, you can see a Dutch scientist in a sweater and a Chilean scientist sweating on a hot day debating how to quantify the impact of a heat wave on a drought. "Every time you have a heat wave, the drought gets worse." "Said Ana Selensohn, a researcher at the French-Argentine Institute for Climate and Impacts Research in Buenos Aires. She said rivers were too low, disrupting vital agricultural export routes and making it difficult for hydropower stations to generate electricity. She was even contacted by a transport organisation asking how to design a boat for a low-water river.

The WWA team must efficiently assess every extreme weather event. Otto later told me that for every attribution study, they needed to find ways to quantify it. For heat waves, the team often defined them by temperature records that exceeded a certain threshold over a period of time. Drought is more complex because it can be defined in many ways, such as a lack of rainfall, reduced soil moisture, or a drop in surface water levels. And each definition may correspond to multiple variables. "If the temperature is very high, evaporation is rapid, and that can lead to lower river flows, which can have a huge impact on the economy - you can't capture those effects just by looking at rainfall," Otto said.

Otto asked if the team could quickly make a reasonable analysis based on temperature and precipitation alone. The panellists discussed various options: Studying heat waves is relatively simple, because so many studies have linked heat waves to climate change. But some WWA members have advocated for a broader, but slower, analysis of the drought. Finally, one member asked, "Is there an option to do both?"

Rivera impressed the panelists by detailing how his home country was experiencing staggering heat. "This November was the hottest on record in Argentina," he said. The team members were so enthusiastic that they decided to finish the heat wave study as quickly as possible and allow enough time to move forward with the more complex drought study. "This is something we've never done before - one study, but published in two parts." "Otto said. They also assigned specific tasks, after which everyone quickly ended the online video conference and returned to their real lives.

Over the next few weeks, the scientists used five different numerical models to compare climate conditions today with those before the Industrial Revolution. They focused on the hottest week in early December and found that climate change increased the probability of this heat wave by 60 times. Temperatures in Argentina have risen by about 1.4 ° C. It has been shown that this change may increase the risk of heat-related death by 5.7%. The WWA published these results in late December 2022, shortly before another heat wave swept through Argentina. "Remarkably, these record high temperature events occurred even before the official start of the Southern Hemisphere summer." This is not normal." "The group said.

When the team turned to drought, there was a massive power outage in Buenos Aires. Forest fires are also burning in northern Argentina and neighboring areas of Chile. "The reason any weather event becomes a disaster is nothing more than the vulnerability and exposure of society itself." "Otto said. Heat records alone don't tell the full story of how people are affected, and "you can't understand what climate change really means" if you don't put science and disaster response together. In Latin America, for example, there are high levels of social inequality in many regions that can make marginalized communities more vulnerable to extreme weather. It reminded Rivera of a time when desperate farmers knelt in the parched fields to pray for rain.

While Argentina's climate woes hardly capture the attention of countries north of the equator, the impact is felt globally. Argentina is a major wheat exporter, and a trade group estimates that half of its crop will fail in 2023 due to drought, at a cost of $10 billion. Analysts have warned that crop failures in the country will further push up global food prices.

WWA stands out in the world of climate research primarily for its willingness to confront the wide range of societal issues raised by extreme weather events. Otto points to a 2022 WWA study in sub-Saharan Africa that wasn't even largely weather-related. The region's economy depends on rain-fed crops and livestock. However, due to the delay of the 2021 rainy season, the local food security has been a series of problems. "Even small changes in rainfall," the WWA argues, "can affect already stretched food supplies." Due to large uncertainties in the data itself, the team is not yet able to determine whether changes in rainfall have been affected by climate change, but the WWA warns that the region is "highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on global food security."

A 2004 paper published in Nature was one of the first widely cited studies in the field of climate attribution. The paper was published a year and a half after Europe suffered its hottest summer in centuries, when crops failed, glaciers in the Alps shrank by 10 per cent and more than 30,000 people died. The study's lead author, Peter A. Stott, A climatologist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, concluded that the impact of human activity had at least doubled the probability of record-breaking heat waves. Stephanie Herring, a climate scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), says that the problem was "very difficult" at the time and was only of interest to researchers who truly loved statistical probability, atmospheric physics and aerodynamics. Since 2012, when Herring began publishing annual reports on extreme weather events for the American Meteorological Society, "none of us could have predicted that this area of research would end up getting so much public attention."

In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit New York City and New Jersey, bringing public attention to the storm. People are wondering how this storm could have done so much damage so far north. (Hurricanes usually make landfall and cause damage along the mid-to-low latitudes, rarely moving north to the mid-to-high latitudes.) Analysis published a few months later suggested that the melting of large amounts of Arctic sea ice earlier that year, which created large areas of open water that absorbed more solar radiation, may have exacerbated Sandy's intensity - though the link was described only as "a plausible possible mechanism". Kevin Trenberth, a prominent scholar at the Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States, has said that scientists are often too conservative and often underestimate the impact of climate change. Most researchers also remain reluctant to discuss the specific effects of climate change on a single storm.

Advances in analytical methods have made it easier for scientists to isolate the effects of climate change. In the first years of the 21st century, few institutions had high-performance computer systems that could run climate models containing large amounts of data. Today, researchers can do this from a laptop at home via cloud services, and can even combine multiple patterns to run them multiple times, increasing the reliability of the results. The accuracy of the climate models themselves has also generally improved, such as higher resolution, which allows them to provide more precise information about specific locations.

With the development of the attribution field, two research methods have emerged. One of these, called probabilistic event attribution, is used to estimate the extent to which human activity increases the probability of a certain extreme weather event, such as a heat wave. Scientists use numerical models to simulate extreme weather events, give them a scenario in which climate change does not occur, and then compare the results under the climate change scenario to determine whether factors such as increased emissions increase the probability of a particular extreme event. The WWA's first study, for example, compared temperatures in five French cities during the 2015 heat wave with summer temperatures in the first half of the 20th century, proving that climate change did indeed increase the probability of heat waves by four times.

As a contrast, another approach focuses on causation or "story lines." This approach asks questions about specific disasters, such as whether climate change has increased the amount of precipitation in a particular storm. The answer lies in thermodynamic changes, such as warmer air holding more water vapor, which leads to increased precipitation.

Trenberth was one of the early proponents of the "story line" approach. At first, he notes, the scientific debate between the two approaches was intense. In 2014, after a major flood in Boulder, Colorado, NOAA's Martin Herring published a study showing that climate change had not increased the probability of heavy rainfall in the region. Trenberth and his colleagues dispute the results. Trenberth argues that the study did not take into account Mexico's warm sea surface temperatures, where large amounts of water would evaporate into the atmosphere, increasing total precipitation. Herring responded that Trenberth's explanation seemed clear but oversimplified the issue. A news report in the journal Nature details the debate.

Over time, people on both sides have come to realize that the two approaches actually complement each other. "Ideally, you should do both," Mr. Otto said. "They're looking at things from different angles." Elizabeth Lloyd, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, also said that both methods can provide important information about climate risk. Combining these two approaches can tell policymakers whether roads and Bridges need to cope with more intense precipitation, and emergency managers how often they will need to restrict access to those roads and Bridges in the future because of storms.

In 2017, when Hurricane Harvey stayed in the Houston area for several days, the attribution field took another step forward. At that time, the hurricane brought up to 150 centimeters of rain to the region, far exceeding previous records. Trenberth found that the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico at the time produced more evaporation than normal, which directly led to excessive precipitation. On the other hand, Otto and his colleagues have also conducted an independent analysis showing that climate change has increased precipitation by 15 percent. Trenberth said governments in hurricane-prone areas need to develop contingency plans for larger floods, including upgrading evacuation routes, adjusting building codes and revamping power grids.

It's a depressing fact that our bodies can't regenerate damaged tooth enamel, but scientists at the University of Washington (UW) have now grown miniature teeth in the lab that secrete enamel producing proteins. This could be the first step towards "living fillings" to repair cavities, or even lab-grown replacement teeth.

Enamel is the hardest tissue in the human body, it surrounds our teeth and helps them withstand the stress of chewing. But over time, teeth can still develop cracks and cavities, and unfortunately, this material does not heal naturally, so it usually requires a filling or complete removal.

In the new study, the University of Washington team first looked at how enamel is naturally created, and thus how it can be repaired. The key lies in cells called ameloblasts, which make enamel during tooth development but die after the job is done.

First, the team used a technique called single-cell combinatorial indexed RNA sequencing (sci-RNA-seq), which highlights gene activation during cell development. By running the technique during the development of human tooth cells and using specialized algorithms, the researchers were able to build a blueprint of how stem cells form myeloblasts.

It's a depressing fact that our bodies can't regenerate damaged tooth enamel, but

scientists at the University of Washington (UW) have now grown miniature teeth in the lab that secrete enamel producing proteins. This could be the first step towards "living fillings" to repair cavities, or even lab-grown replacement teeth.

Enamel is the hardest tissue in the human body, it surrounds our teeth and helps them withstand the stress of chewing. But over time, teeth can still develop cracks and cavities, and unfortunately, this material does not heal naturally, so it usually requires a filling or complete removal.

In the new study, the University of Washington team first looked at how enamel is naturally created, and thus how it can be repaired. The key lies in cells called ameloblasts, which make enamel during tooth development but die after the job is done.

First, the team used a technique called single-cell combinatorial indexed RNA sequencing (sci-RNA-seq), which highlights gene activation during cell development. By running the technique during the development of human tooth cells and using specialized algorithms, the researchers were able to build a blueprint of how stem cells form myeloblasts.

"It's a must-see movie for men." That's what everyone says. But simply dividing it by gender would narrow the film. The Shawshank Redemption breaks the limits of a man's movie, has an almost unbelievably warm tone throughout, and the greatest theme in the film is "hope." When we encounter the kind of prison that imprisons the freedom of mind like Shawshank, are we helpless old Brooke, frustrated Red, or wise Andy? Use wisdom, trust in hope, and stand up to fear to defeat it? Classic movies are classic because they all do the same thing - make you appreciate the beauty of hope from a different perspective.

Everything is life, not the slightest bit, okay?

Based on Kay Bird and Martin J. Sherwin's biography of Robert Oppenheimer, American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of Robert Oppenheimer, which won the 2005 Pulitzer Prize for Biography.

Oppenheimer is undoubtedly a masterpiece.

Even from the perspective of director Christopher Nolan's personal work pedigree, it has surpassed the depth and breadth of previous masterpieces, showing a more skilled technique and a more calm and cold style.

The grand historical themes and the subtle and profound performance of the lead actor Killian Murphy together recreate the epic moments. It was a moment that changed the life of a genius scientist and the shape of the world - a moment that shows how the battle of human nature, the game between science and politics, still profoundly affects our time today and serves as a grim prophecy for future tragedies.

A silly and lovely cat which wears a silly mask on his head.

-- Blockchain technology helps realize shared finance

Before blockchain technology, we didn't really know how the Internet would change the future. After the emergence of blockchain technology, we can say that the Internet will profoundly change the present, and then affect the future, and push human society forward to a more fair, equal and universal era. Among them, of course, is the future of finance. In 2014, there were only three companies in the world engaged in blockchain-related business. In just one year, those financial giants who had previously dismissed it changed their minds. Dozens of international giants have laid out blockchain technology and released internal reports on digital currency, which is the best proof.

When troubles come and my heart burdened be

Then I am still and wait here in the silence

Until you come and sit a while with me

You raise me up so I can stand on mountains

You raise me up to walk on stormy seas

I am strong when I am on your shoulders

You raise me up to more than I can be

You raise me up so I can stand on mountains

You raise me up to walk on stormy seas

I am strong when I am on your shoulders

You raise me up to more than I can be

There is no life no life without its hunger

Each restless heart beats so imperfectly

But when you come and I am filled with wonder

Sometimes I think I glimpse eternity

You raise me up so I can stand on mountains

You raise me up to walk on stormy seas

And I am strong when I am on your shoulders

You raise me up to more than I can be

You raise me up to more than I can be