Relevant units:

In accordance with the Notification of the Launch of the China Science and Technology Journal in the Year 2023 and the Notification of the Eighth China Co-operative Programme for the Selection of Excellence in Science and Technology, a total of 22 selected units for each project were produced through public filing, qualification review, expert evaluation, etc. (see annex for details).

The results of the evaluation are now oriented towards social publicity, from 6 May to 9 May. If there is any objection, please provide a written feedback to the Science and Technology Journal of the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology Innovation (tel. 010-68571884, Associate: Wang autumn).

matter

In April, PPI was 8% year-on-year, with the previous value of 8.3%; PPI was 0.6% month on month, and the previous value was 1.1%. CPI was 2.1% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.5%; CPI was 0.4% month on month, and the previous value was 0%.

Main points

Three revelations from the slowdown of PPI year-on-year decline

Since this year, the year-on-year decline of PPI has been slower than the market expectation. This situation has also existed in the past period when PPI remained high year-on-year. In the upward period, the market tends to underestimate the upward slope of PPI year-on-year, and in the downward period, it tends to overestimate its downward speed. From the situation since this year, the reason for this phenomenon may be that the high-frequency price of domestic priced goods is not comprehensive, and it is difficult to match the price of the corresponding PPI industry, which makes the market underestimate the support of domestic price rise factors for PPI.

Since the beginning of this year, PPI has increased month on month and slowed down year-on-year. There are two reasons at home and abroad. At the level of input factors, the geopolitical conflict promoted the rise of crude oil and nonferrous metals prices, which led to the rise of domestic related industries. From February to April, PPI rose by 0.5%, 1.1% and 0.6% month on month respectively. The pull of crude oil and nonferrous metals related industries totaled about 0.4%, 0.75 and 0.3 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 81%, 68% and 51%. At the level of domestic factors, the rise in the prices of coal, iron ore and steel also led to the rise in the prices of relevant industries. From February to April, coal and black related industries pulled PPI by about 0.06, 0.29 and 0.26 percentage points month on month, with contribution rates of 12%, 26% and 44%. Compared with March, the chain pull of coal and black related industries on PPI did not weaken significantly in April.

At present, the market pays more attention to the input factors, and because the high frequency of oil price can roughly correspond to the price trend of PPI crude oil related industries, the market’s evaluation of the impact of foreign input factors on PPI is relatively sufficient. However, in terms of domestic factors, because the high-frequency prices of domestic priced commodities are not comprehensive (especially coal prices), it is difficult to match the price trend of the corresponding PPI industry, or the market underestimates the support of domestic factors for PPI trend.

Three revelations from the recent PPI trend are: first, foreign imported inflation factors are increasing the pressure on China to stabilize prices. Second, it is expected that the will to stabilize domestic prices will rise in the future. Because domestic policies and measures cannot regulate the price of foreign priced goods, under the pressure of steady growth and stable prices this year, subsequent policies may strengthen the price regulation of domestic priced upstream goods to hedge the pressure of foreign imported price increases. Since this year, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments have continuously regulated coal (determining the medium and long-term trading and spot price range, qualitatively and quantitatively determining the bid up price behavior, etc.) and black series prices (strengthening iron ore price supervision, continuing to reduce crude steel output and reduce iron ore demand, etc.), and it is expected that the policy intensity will be maintained in the future or still. Third, at present, the announcement of high-frequency prices of important domestic commodities such as coal and black series (especially coal) is not comprehensive, and there are phenomena such as stopping and changing when prices rise sharply, which objectively increases the difficulty for the market to track domestic price rise factors.

PPI: price rise factors at home and abroad jointly promote prices

From the perspective of upstream and downstream of manufacturing industry: the price of upstream industry was 1.2% month on month, with the previous value of 2.3%; The price of midstream industry is 0% month on month, and the former value is 0%; The price of downstream industries was 0.4% month on month, compared with the previous value of 0.4%. The upstream, middle and downstream of manufacturing, mining and other industries pulled PPI by 0.4, 0, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points respectively.

Perspective of industry segmentation: 1) the prices of international crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities fluctuated at a high level, and the price increase of domestic related industries narrowed, but still maintained an upward trend. 2) In terms of domestic factors, affected by the price rise of raw materials such as iron ore, coal and coke, the price rise of relevant industries is relatively high.

CPI: Rose seasonally on a month on month basis, breaking 2% year on year for the first time

In April, CPI rose significantly year-on-year. First, the contribution of tail warping factor. The tail warping factor of CPI rebounded to about 0.7% from 0.4% last month, contributing an additional increment of 0.3 percentage points. Second, affected by the epidemic, poor logistics and rising demand for goods, the prices of fresh fruits, eggs and other food rose against the season. Food prices dragged down CPI by about 0.28 percentage points year-on-year in March, and positively pulled 0.35 percentage points in April, contributing an additional increment of 0.63 percentage points. The year-on-year pull of energy prices on CPI was not higher than that in April.

Risk tip: the upstream commodity price, pork price and core CPI trend exceeded expectations.

Report contents

Report body

1、 Three revelations from the slowdown of PPI year-on-year decline

Since this year, the year-on-year decline rate of PPI has been relatively slow, which is slower than the market expectation, and the actual value is close to the upper edge of the market forecast. This situation has also existed in the past period when PPI remained high year-on-year. In the upward period, the market tends to underestimate the upward slope of PPI year-on-year, and in the downward period, it tends to overestimate its downward speed.

From the situation since this year, the reason for this phenomenon may be that the high-frequency price announcement of domestic priced goods is not comprehensive, and it is difficult to match the price of the corresponding PPI industry, which makes the market underestimate the support of domestic price rise factors for PPI.

Since the beginning of this year, PPI has been rising month on month and slowing down year-on-year. There are two reasons at home and abroad. At the level of foreign import factors, the geopolitical conflict promoted the rise of crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices, which led to the rise of prices in relevant domestic industries. From February to April, PPI rose by 0.5%, 1.1% and 0.6% month on month, respectively