The applesi Pad’s share of deliveries declined by 20 per cent to 12.7 million and the market share was 38 per cent. In addition, there was a decline of 19 per cent to 1.6.7 million in the bidding volume of well-concentrated computers, close to the market average.

Three constellations declined by 15 per cent to 7 million, with market shares of 21 per cent, exceeding global market averages. Amazon performance is close to market averages, with exports falling by 21 per cent to 2.9 million and market shares falling to 9 per cent. The share of the market was reduced by 37 per cent to 1.9 million. In the fifth largest part of the country’s supply of 1.2 million flatter, the market share declined by 14 per cent and the market share by 4 per cent.

To reasonably grasp the downward trend of the savings rate and effectively adjust the debt business strategy is an important topic for commercial banks to deal with the slowdown of deposit growth in the future.

Since the reform and opening up, with the annual growth of China’s economy and gross national income, the total savings and the savings of the government, enterprises and residents have continued to grow. After 2010, due to the gradual weakening of the pulling effect of investment on economic growth, the national savings rate decreased slowly. With the aging population, the transformation of economic growth momentum from investment to consumption, the slowdown of economic growth and the transformation of economic structure, China’s total savings rate may continue to decline in the future. Although the change of bank deposit growth rate has its own characteristics in each period, and the correlation between deposit and total savings rate is not very close in the short cycle, there is a clear correlation between the trend changes of the two in the long cycle. Therefore, to reasonably grasp the downward trend of the savings rate and effectively adjust the debt business strategy is an important topic for commercial banks to deal with the slowdown of deposit growth in the future.

1、 Analysis and Prospect of the change characteristics of China’s savings rate

National savings is the remaining part of national disposable income after deducting final consumption and investment expenditure. National savings = resident savings + enterprise savings + government savings. The national savings rate is the national savings divided by the net domestic product NDP (NDP = GDP capital depreciation, approximate but not equal to GDP) or gross national income GNI. There are essential differences between national savings and resident savings. Resident savings and resident savings deposits are also two different concepts. In order to make a better distinction, residents’ savings deposits / residents’ disposable income should be referred to as residents’ savings deposit trend, that is, the proportion willing to use disposable income for savings deposits.

1. Changes in the global savings rate

2. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, from 1980 to 1999, the global total savings rate was basically stable, maintained at 21% - 24%. After 2000, the global total savings rate increased, gradually reaching above 25%. After the fluctuations of the financial crisis in 2008, the growth of the global total savings rate slowed down and remained at 25% - 27%. Among them, the savings rate of developed countries is basically stable, and almost all remain slightly higher than 20% except for the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. The savings rate of developing countries has increased rapidly since 2000, from slightly higher than 20% to more than 30%, and remained slightly higher than 30% after the crisis.

3. The increase in savings rates in developing countries is mainly due to economic growth and rising income levels. Especially after China’s entry into WTO, the global industrial value chain has gradually formed, which has improved the efficiency of global resource allocation, played a huge leading role and promoted the growth of savings. According to the prediction of IMF, the process of economic structure transformation experienced by some middle and high-income developing countries in the future will reduce their national savings rate; However, with the industrialization of remanufacturing and the increase of investment, developed countries will become the main driving force for the slow rise of global savings rate.

4. China’s gross national savings rate

5. With the sustained and rapid economic growth, China’s gross national income and gross national savings have shown rapid growth. By 2015, the total national disposable income was 68.2 trillion yuan and the total national savings was 33.4 trillion yuan. From 1999 to 2008, China’s national savings rate gradually increased from 36.5% to 51.8%. In 2008, after the 4 trillion investment stimulus ebbed, the national savings rate also showed a gradual downward trend due to the gradual weakening of the pulling effect of investment on economic growth. With the aging population and the transformation of economic growth momentum from investment to consumption, China’s total savings rate may continue to decline in the future.

6. Savings rate of sub sectors in China

7. The situation of residents, enterprises and government departments in gross national savings and gross national disposable income is different. Since there is no consumption problem in the enterprise sector, the disposable income of the enterprise sector is its savings; For the government and residents, the final deduction is in the disposable income sector.

8. According to relevant data, the savings of the three sectors showed a gradual growth trend from 1992 to 2016. Among them, except for the slight slowdown in the growth of savings in the resident sector in recent years, the change trend of savings in the enterprise sector and the resident sector is relatively close. Although the total savings of government departments are less than that of enterprises and individuals, the growth trend is more obvious after 2000.

9. At the end of 2016, the savings of enterprise sector and resident sector accounted for 43.6% and 45.1% respectively. As the proportion of savings in the resident sector has decreased slightly in recent years, the share of enterprise sector and government sector has increased. In particular, the proportion of savings in the government sector has gradually increased to more than 10% since the beginning of negative savings in 2000. The increase in the proportion of savings in the enterprise sector is mainly due to the improvement in the operating efficiency of enterprises in recent years. The proportion of government savings has increased. On the one hand, the rise in land prices has led to the transfer of savings from some resident departments in the form of land transfer fees. On the other hand, it is due to the deposit accumulation caused by the increase of Financial deposits and the reduction of three public funds. On the whole, the proportion of savings deposits in China’s enterprise sector and resident sector is large, which is in line with the universal international law.

10. The propensity of household sector savings decreased

11. From the perspective of residents’ total savings tendency, the peak was 39% in 2010, and then gradually decreased to about 34.2% in 2016. From the perspective of the trend of residents’ savings deposits, that is, residents’ savings deposits / residents’ disposable income, the decline rate is faster. After reaching the peak of 31.1% in 2008, there was a trend, which has decreased to 12.7% in 2017. This means that the proportion of residents’ income used for savings deposits is becoming smaller and smaller. This also led to a sharp decline in the growth rate of household savings from 16% in 2010 to 7.7% in 2017. At the same time, the decline of savings rate is also accompanied by the rapid increase of household leverage. Between 2013 and 2017, the share of household debt in GDP increased from 33% to 49%.

12. There are many reasons for the decline of the total savings tendency and savings deposit tendency of residents. First, the innovative development of the financial market and the expansion of investment channels have accelerated the diversification of residents’ wealth. Second, Internet financial management is booming under the background of financial technology

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