Limitless https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange The social predictions protocol. Have skin in your beliefs. Thu, 23 Jul 2026 16:34:11 GMT https://validator.w3.org/feed/docs/rss2.html https://github.com/jpmonette/feed en Limitless https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/f949c5297de4543b5733febdcac4503d.jpg https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange All rights reserved <![CDATA[Introducing Prediction Market Summer 🌞]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/prediction-market-summer t11nF1eW2FOIvVaJ55rN Thu, 25 Jul 2024 13:11:01 GMT

In summer 2020, the world changed forever.

Uniswap had given birth to a new era of grassroots, community first token communities & applications. One simple algorithm had finally been implemented in a neat enough interface & achieved distribution, enabling an instant trading venue for any asset. The shackles of launchpads & centralized exchanges were burst, and open source, information age finance began to proliferate at revolutionary magnitude.

There was no going back…

To date, Uniswap has supported hundreds of thousands of pools and trillions of dollars in volume.

The financial nihilist in you may attribute this to the exponential risk appetite of the terminally online or the greed we know to be generally found among our species. But are you sure that alone could ever be responsible for sparking that lightning in a bottle that exploded & rocked the financial world?

Crypto had been around forever, or so it seemed, but there were still very few things you could actually do with it. By summer 2020, people could finally do things onchain. Elementary & seemingly retarded things, sure. But expression, ownership and the moral right to say fuck you to everything and all things is the fabric that holds this generation together much tighter than religion or politics as we know it.

Why? Because everything & all things failed us. The incumbent system wasn’t designed & nor did it account for the countless people that would come next.

This is a new system, and the financialization of free & open software atop of an unstoppable global machine stewarded by the people is freedom & opportunity immortalized.

Now, back to doing things onchain, we started by democratizing the role of the market maker to make way for new assets that funded new applications & rewarded the users of them. Then, we onboarded millions of artists around the world & stuffed our profits into their pockets to further accelerate this new culture.

Many other use cases later, and today, in 2024, we’ve taken an age old idea to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd & make astute predictions to prepare for & de-risk the world from seismic events.

Prediction markets are extraordinary pieces of market infrastructure that:

  • Are able to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd to make forecasts more accurately than “experts” about elections, economic policy, companies, stocks, apps, crypto, tech, inflation, sports & more!

  • Provide an incredibly flexible way to hedge against bad things happening or what any of the above & more things mean for you or a particular organization.

  • Create utility for community tokens & give people fun things to do onchain.

  • Protect truth in today’s climate of informational uncertainty.

  • & much, much more!

This summer onchain has clearly been all about prediction markets as they continue to make waves on the global stage. But prediction markets still have a long way to go…

Today, they experience the same shackles that tokens faced before summer 2020. Polymarket & other platforms are effectively centralized exchanges, constrained by the will of market makers & internal top down market creation.

Limitless & its creators believe they can spark prediction markets’ “Uniswap moment” - driving towards millions of user generated markets & trillions of dollars in volume.

“Prediction Market Summer” will celebrate all great that is happening in the land of prediction markets, Limitless, onchain, on Base, and especially that which is fueled by the contributions of our awesome creators 🫶.

We also have more exciting new features, updates & opportunities coming your way every single week!

Creator Of The Week

With that, we’re proud to announce our new “Creator of the week” series, which aims to spotlight Limitless creators who are driving forwards the ecosystem.

The first Limitless #COTW is @juliezhanggg - an awesome Zuzalan who enabled Limitless traders on Base to gain exposure to the price movements of memecoins on Solana without bridging or buying any tokens directly!

Julie also earned some nice rewards. It ain’t much but it’s honest work… Congrats Julie, you rock!

If you'd like to learn more about becoming a creator, you can visit our Creators 101 page and/or reach out to CJ directly.

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ ) <![CDATA[SBF out of jail & Limitless v2 Launch at EthCC Brussels ]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/sbf-out-of-jail-and-limitless-v2-launch-at-ethcc-brussels UICgjETWj2V8RC0kD4tl Mon, 15 Jul 2024 17:58:42 GMT EthCC was a culture & tech festival of insane magnitude & depth. Perhaps the most diverse participation I have ever witnessed at such a gathering as a longstanding member of the Ethereum community- the meeting erupted into physically sprawling breakout rooms around Brussels in a way reminiscent of the darkest yet most online hours of the pandemic.

Many called for less “fragmentation” of the community by hosting less side events. But personally, I don’t believe that more events with more variety is a net negative in the same way you could argue that bridging UX or centralized sequencing sucks because of X or Y. This is the infinite garden after all, and it wouldn’t be so if there wasn’t almost something for everyone, or at least the freedom to create whatever the hell you want (whether that’s an app, or an IRL experience).

The question on my mind was chiefly;

“Is this the beginning of something truly huge & world beating?… Or the frothy point of a local maxima?”

I still don’t believe I found the answer. Of course, the optimist in me wants to recognize a supercycle, but I’m also beaten up by the previous times such a mindset cost me everything & sent me to zero.

It’s hard to imagine that free drinks at large venues with popular DJs in the capital of the EU is sustainable, but I’m hopeful that the influx of newcomers to the space will help us to continue growing the pie in a non-extractive way.

The announcement of the next EthCC taking place in Cannes was truly a surprise to me. We should be focused on giving new entrants fun & meaningful things to do onchain that can positively impact the way we interact with the internet and what that means for the trajectory of our species, not circle jerking at expensive parties & celebrating exit liquidity.

Study infinite games, and long live freedom dammit!

Fresh off the hot changelog

Despite attending more than 25 events in 4 days - our team managed to deliver v2 of our product during the event & we created fun markets about EthCC. Particularly things like “Will there be an orgy?” or “Will David & Cami’s wedding be legitimate?” went down really well.

We also had some live football betting during the Euro 2024 semi finals, as Ethereans flocked into nearby bars to spectate the action, which was extraordinary fun!

For the first time since we went live, odds on Limitless achieving $10M volume in the first year starting spiking. This is a very interesting market created by one of our community members on Warpcast!

It was also interesting to see the Degen community responding in real time to teasers & hints about the economics of Season 6, which went live last week. This helped us to build an accurate picture of what was coming next as a community, producing valuable insights & showing the power of prediction markets.

Having boots on the ground & talking to users was refreshing. Most seemed to know what prediction markets are, and some showed eagerness to participate. We talked at length about their pain points, gathered feedback on the current state of the product, and aggressively validated / invalidated some of the assumptions we had in the pipeline.

We decided that whilst conferences can be useful, we should make a small number of concentrated bets each year & prepare extremely well for those. So you most likely won’t find us on the road again until Devcon, where we plan to run some intriguing experiments!

The user response so far to EthCC & the v2 launch has been promising. We have seen:

  • +110% in weekly active users (396 vs 189)

  • +100% in amount of trades (42 vs 21)

  • +40% in traders in July compared to June (24 vs 17)

  • +25% to average session length (4min vs 3min)

v2 itself is a culmination of features we have been delivering recently. Multi-token support was introduced to the platform, every market link renders as a trade frame on Warpcast, & we completed a full redesign of the entire platform to give you a bolder, more unique experience that blends brutal old web with modern finance & web3. Catch up with the full changelog here & stay tuned for what is coming next.

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ ) <![CDATA[Stack $HIGHER by betting on Higher Athletics ]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/limitless-higher-athletics bPp9ZFBwjDNSzc2KDzEo Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:51:38 GMT Higher Athletics has been making waves on Farcaster by supporting athletes with event sign-up fees / donations, branded Higher gear and community run group challenges & individual efforts to go Higher, whether that's running, cycling, or more!

It's rare to see such a terminally online space venturing out into the world and touching grass whilst completing grueling athletic challenges to boost health & wellbeing!

We decided that it's a good opportunity to enable the $HIGHER community to support & speculate on these activities using prediction markets on limitless.exchange, bringing onchain and real world fun closer together.

As we speak, @cooperray & @poliberber.eth are cycling in an ultra endurance race as Higher athletes in the Peruvian mountains. But the word on the street is that @poliberber.eth is coming down with the flu...

The question is, will they both complete the race, despite such adversity?

The Higher cycling challenge #1 is also ongoing, until July 7th, with participants expected to complete 100km of cycling per week.

How many will be brave enough to attempt it?

Recently, the Higher Running Challenge #1 was completed by 49 participants, who each set out to run a total of 60km over 3 weeks, using Receipts & Strava to upload their proofs.

Running Challenge #2 is coming soon, but who will be brave enough to give it a try? Will we go Higher?

If you're part of the $HIGHER community and would like to suggest or create your own markets to earn rewards if they become popular, DM CJ to get started!

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ ) <![CDATA[Limitless adds support for $VITA token, launches DeSci markets ]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/vita-desci-prediction-markets 3HETr2KUC2N5XHVRFLPx Tue, 18 Jun 2024 18:44:00 GMT In the 80s and 90s, researchers began proposing modern prediction markets for the sake of political & economic forecasting. The University of Iowa even launched a prediction market in 1988 for academic purposes.

In the early 2000s, the idea of using prediction markets to forecast scientific outcomes began to gain traction. Researchers proposed that these markets could aggregate expert opinions and data to predict the results of scientific experiments and discoveries, particularly in terms of things like reproducibility. It’s well known today that science suffers a huge reproducibility problem, and prediction markets have long been proposed as a potential solution to that problem.

Prediction markets serve as a global schelling point where the wisdom of the crowd is aggregated to generate truth.

Still, prediction markets have never really been widely adopted in science. Professor Robin Hanson argues that academia always cared more about prestige than procedural optimization, which is why grants were adopted instead of retroactive prize based funding- to give the funders more prestige by way of association with particular researchers.

Then, came DeSci

It’s no secret that funding mechanisms and IP governance in science and academia are unfortunately fundamentally broken.

Organizations like VitaDAO, Molecule, Bio.xyz, ResearchHub & many others stand to change this by building those mechanisms & structures onchain to accelerate exponential breakthroughs in the age of information.

In order to fund innovative research, BioDAOs like VitaDAO pool capital and then allocate it according to a community voting process. This means that cutting edge science gets the monetary boost it needs to be kickstarted, but that’s not all. The IP produced by that research is actually tokenized, and then governed by its community of token holders (aka research funders) who steward it down an optimal path to real impact.

We’ve added the VitaDAO $VITA token to limitless.exchange to reignite a new era of prediction markets in science.

"Using BioDAO tokens in onchain prediction markets means that new mediums of financial & social gravity can be used to forecast scientific outcomes by extracting sentiment from leading minds in the industry."

How to get involved

You can visit limitless.exchange today and start trading in markets such as;

“Will VitaDAO fund $2m of science in 2024?”

“Will aggregate DeSci market cap achieve $1b in 2024?”

“Will Artan Bio VitaRNA commence clinical trials of their engineered suppressor system to counter aging mutations on human subjects in 2025?”

Beyond that, you can become a creator by proposing your own science related prediction markets to gain insights & generate extra revenue, or if you’re a BioDAO representative- reach out to CJ directly to get your token added to the platform!

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ ) <![CDATA[A weekend in Berkeley with prediction market enthusiasts]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/manifest-2024 pa7zVLU0ruBOeGajid1c Wed, 12 Jun 2024 18:24:00 GMT Manifest was a spectacular gathering that featured no less than pantomime, live betting on wrestling between attendees, orgy markets and deep insights into the future of prediction markets, geopolitics, AI and human fertility.

Some of the group were spending an extended period of time at the "Lighthaven Campus" in Berkeley, CA as part of a "Summer Camp" program.

If not working in AI safety or at Jane St, the participants were professional or casual prediction market traders, or academics curious about the forecasting space. Some of the participants had even advised 10 Downing Street during the Cummings era and moved on to creating strategic option memos for world leaders. Others had first proposed research on prediction markets 35 years ago, or fought for years with the CFTC to keep their business alive. A lot of the community were part of the play money trading games on Manifold, with opportunities to meet MANA whales.

Even still, the majority of the crowd was certainly united around the idea of betting on elections. In fact, it's been a hot topic in the United States for many decades. People simply want to bet on election results. Some people even want to approach election markets with the professional rigor high frequency traders approach the traditional financial markets... I met one such trader who makes enough money trading on election night alone to sustain themselves for the following 4-5 year election cycle.

Kalshi continues to barter with the CFTC day by day to guarantee such regulated products exist in the US market. Every single market proposed must be individually considered & approved by the CFTC in order for trading to commence. Election markets are still considered illegal.

Polymarket has amassed an enormous share of US election betting volume. It's a US VC funded legal arbitrage, and despite Polymarket being fined already, I'm interested to see how this one plays out. I believe it's no coincidence that they start to create & promote more markets around other industries.

Professor Robin Hanson proposed LMSR in 2002

We had the enormous pleasure of meeting Professor Robin Hanson, who was indeed a special guest & an absolute legend of the space. We discussed at the depth different market mechanisms, touched on the "free-rider problem" faced by unsubsidized public markets and explored the potential to quantify academics impact on society in simulated PvP Elo ranking games. He went on to deliver an insightful talk about fertility risks humanity is facing.

I proposed a similar idea to the Elo rating of academics in the context of social media engagement metrics a few months ago in an internal memo, intending to shift collateral around a system based on the scoring mechanism to impact the floor price of personas.

Overall, Manifest was an incredibly insightful & productive weekend. Usually, when I ask people in the "real world" if they like prediction markets, they look at me blankly and ask for an explanation. At Manifest, 100% of people I asked that question answered yes.

We collectively remembered events that happened along the way; PredictIt's long standing battle with the CFTC, FTX's leveraged Japanese olympics market that resulted in heavy manipulation & user refunds, how social media activity / engagement related markets led to Andrew Yang's team receiving death threats in the past.

We look forward to the future of prediction markets and how they continue to be built out and achieve adoption.

Here's to futarchy!

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ ) <![CDATA[Here’s how you can earn /onchain on Limitless, the social predictions protocol ]]> https://paragraph.com/@limitlessexchange/limitless-onchain-community 2X1lnf0qtlSLoxp2MpF7 Fri, 17 May 2024 18:18:02 GMT This time, instead of markets about the future of /onchain with Wrapped ETH as a collateral token, we’re going deeper with @raz to give each of you the opportunity to earn /onchain by making smart, well informed predictions about the future of the onchain economy & events in the real world.

The fabled /onchain is a culture coin that brings the spirit & energy of your favorite MMORPGs directly to your crypto wallet & Farcaster experience.

So, how does it work?

Limitless is a platform that enables you to buy YES or NO shares on the outcome of particular events. You can make smart & well informed predictions, and build positions in what you believe will happen.

These markets aggregate diverse opinions and information from participants, creating a collective forecast about the likelihood of various events by default. The price of YES or NO shares in each outcome reflects the market’s consensus probability of that outcome occurring.

At the specified deadline, an oracle reports the true outcome, and these YES / NO shares function like binary options contracts. Either, the collateral will be flushed from your position, marking it down to zero OR if you backed the right side of the market: each of your shares can be redeemed for 1 collateral token.

At Limitless, we call these shares “contracts”, and since we plan to support many more collateral tokens on the platform it’s important to remember that not all contracts are created equal. Let’s explore an example…

Imagine a market that uses USDC as a collateral token:

  • Each YES or NO contract is priced in cents & this reflects trader’s aggregate beliefs about the probability of the event (ie a $0.6 YES contract reflects a 60% probability of an event taking place)

  • Each winning contract will expire at $1, that means you can earn an extra $0.4 when the market gets resolved for each contract that you bought

But, when we use collateral tokens like /onchain or Wrapped Ether, the experience is a little different in that each contract is denominated by 1 /onchain or 1 WETH.

These markets can be used for a wide variety of topics, including events that may happen onchain (like the FDV of a particular token), online (like no of followers a Farcaster channel or Twitter account may reach) or in the real world (like which team wins the Champions League football this year).

How can you get involved?

We just added /onchain as a collateral token on limitless.exchange

That means you can visit the platform, participate in /onchain markets and grow your bags by making smart & well informed predictions.

Limitless is a creator led platform, @raz and /onchain are some of our first creators, but you can create your own markets as well. Visit our Creators 101 to learn more about extra opportunities to earn whilst extracting rich insights from particular communities.

]]> limitlessexchange@newsletter.paragraph.com (CJ )