Product Features

• ERC-20 Markets: Bet in any ERC-20 currency!

• English Premier League Quizzes: Falsenine will be hosting a season long series of quizzes for the Premier League. 5 questions weekly with the chance to win a 25M $falsenine bonus for 5/5.

• Market Admin Page: For admins to resolve and manage markets

Highlights

• Fans of the Onit agent

  

  Jesse Walden

  @jessewldn

  

  This is awesome!

  2

  2:32 • 19 Aug 2025

• Falsenine EPL Quiz launch

  ash on Farcaster

  ⚽ $FALSENINE MATCHDAY rolls on with a full slate of European football today. We’re teaming up with @onit to launch EPL Prediction Markets 🔮 5 markets. 15M $FALSENINE bonus up for grabs if you call them all correctly 🏆 Think you know ball? Predict and win! https://www.onit.fun/epl/gw-2 https://www.onit.fun/epl/gw-2 https://farcaster.xyz/~/c/base:0x1ae1695c977ee7d2991c5cb9c4d87eedb0e9f0b1

  Farcaster

  

Traction

• Onit App Users: 2764 -> 4304

• Total Bets: 965 -> 1219

• Protocol Apps: Onboarding a new protocol app with $14M total volume who will be using Onit markets.

Next Steps

• Build out the betting experience for the EPL season.

• Onboard more projects with tokens who want to deploy custom markets.

Ask

• We are looking to close our pre-seed round ASAP and would appreciate any intros to funds actively investing, with an interest in prediction markets.

Contact

Telegram: james_onit

Follow Us: Farcaster | Twitter

Onit was featured in the live demo, and we're excited to say we've been included as one of the first agents in the app!

Just 4 weeks ago we placed 3rd in the Base Batches Messaging Hackathon for building a simple bot with some commands to list and clone prediction markets on Onit. Since then we built out a more complete XMTP agent capable of not just listing and copying markets, but even creating personal markets to bet against the friends in your group chat.

The agent is a step towards making prediction markets accessible to anyone, and we'll be working on making the UX as smooth as possible over the coming weeks. Give it a try and let us know what you think so far!

[add onit.base.eth to your chat to access the agent, you can also add jamco.eth if you want to test or give feedback!]

Product Features

• Onit Agent: An XMTP agent (currently in Beta) that helps with creating and managing markets.

• Score Markets: Create markets for exact scores in sports matches.

• Range Markets: As well as normal distributions, you can now choose an upper and lower limit for bets. This simplified input is well suited to markets like 'Where will Goldy finish on the Farcaster Rewards leaderboard'

Highlights

• We won! First place in DappCon VC day for pitching Onit !

  

• Onit Agent in XMTP. Won 3rd place at Base Buildathon!

  

Traction

• Onit Frame Users: 2002 -> 2764

• Total Bets: 713 -> 965

Next Steps

• Improve agent and let XMTP group members create markets between themselves

• Onboard more protocol apps

Ask

• Share on Farcaster or Twitter: Sharing one of these casts or tweets would be a huge help for us - even better if you go bet on a market you like and share your bet!

Contact:

Telegram: james_onit

Follow us: Farcaster | Twitter

Check our markets: https://onit.fun

Product Features

• Top Predictors on Resolved Markets: Our market cards now show who won the most, so you can share for bragging rights (gg Patrick)

• Create Market Button: Users can make a cast and tag Onit to deploy their market.

• Related Markets: See similar markets to the one your on.

Highlights

• Users deploying markets based on recent news

Traction

• Onit Frame Users: 1330 -> 2002

• Total Bets: 484 -> 713

• Volume: $1073 -> $1951

Next Steps

• Launch token markets

• Onboard more protocol apps

Ask

• Berlin Blockchain Week: We will be at BBW, and are pitching at VC day of DappCon. If you are around Berlin, or know any investors who might like to meet please give them my telegram @james_onit

• Share on Farcaster or Twitter: Sharing one of these casts or tweets would be a huge help for us - even better if you go bet on a market you like and share your bet!

Contact:

Telegram: james_onit

Follow us: Farcaster | Twitter

Check our markets: https://onit.fun

Product Features

• Combo Markets: A set of related markets with a bonus for getting 5/5 correct.

• User Suggested Options: Our Pope market was the first to use our dynamic options. Users could suggest options to be added to the market, and they get a bonus if they suggest the correct outcome.

Highlights

• Onboard Betttr: We've onboarded Betttr, a top 20 miniapp on Farcaster who will be launching sports markets on Onit.

• Onit markets being used as a source of data in articles about football

Traction

• Onit Frame Users: 977 -> 1330

• Total Bets: 122 -> 484

• Volume: $1073

Next Steps

• User Deployed Markets: Let users create markets from the frame, where the market creator gets a cut of the market pot.

• Token Bets: Enable USDC and any ERC20 token bets on markets.

Ask

• We are interested in talking to angels with an interest in protocol design or prediction markets. If you know anyone who might like to talk, please share our details.

Contact:

Telegram: james_onit

Follow Us: Farcaster | Twitter

• API and SDK: We launched our API and SDK, and onboarded our first protocol partners.

• Discrete Markets: We now offer markets for questions like 'Who will win the UEFA Champions League?'. This opens up betting on competitions, or other social markets where your audience are the options.

• Avatars on Chart: We've added Farcaster pfps to the charts so you can see where your friends bet.

• Percentage Markets: Like 'What percentage of the US strategic crypto reserve will be Bitcoin?'

• Tags: Better filtering and discoverability of markets in the Onit frame, and a way for other apps to only show relevant markets to their users.

• Onit markets live in other apps with 50+ bets so far

  

• Happy protocol apps integrating Onit

  

• Onit Frame Users: 583 -> 1002

• Total Bets: 39 -> 122

• Volume: $244 -> $402

• Protocol Apps: 50+ bets came from other applications

• Onboard next batch of protocol users

• Launch a series of themed markets

• Pick up fundraising conversations with investors

• Intro to apps: We're onboarding more apps who would benefit from embedding highly customisable prediction markets, if you know any please put us in touch.

• Intro to investors: We are raising a $3M pre-seed round. If you know any investors interested in protocols, or prediction markets, we'd love to be put in touch (if that sounds like you, drop me a message below and I can send our memo!)

Telegram: james_onit

Follow us: Farcaster | Twitter

Check our markets: https://onit.fun

• Creator Address and Creator Commission: These allow the market creator to set a percentage of the market pot to keep as a commission. Can be configured from 0 -> 4%

• Seed Funds: The market creator can seed the market with a balance to increase the pot.

• Multiple Resolvers: We now store this as an array so you can set a number of addresses who are permitted to resolve the market.

• Configurable Withdrawal Delay Period: After the market is resolved there can be a delay until winnings can be claimed. This acts as time to settle disputes and update the resolved value if needed.

• Market Constant Calculations On Initialisation: Doing this in the initialiser is better as we have all the parameters needed to setup the infinite outcome mechanism there, it also reduces failed deploys due to rounding errors between typescript and solidity.

• Flexible Betting Cutoff: For markets where there will be a set time when the resolution criteria will be known, but it is not known yet.

• Separating Functions: We have broken the market contract into separate Market, Mechanism, and Resolver contracts. This helps us more towards a more configurable protocol.

Most prediction markets today operate by reducing questions into yes/no tokens and using a function to determine the price of each based on their relative demand. This is great for things with binary outcomes, but is insufficient for other questions with multiple choices, and even worse for events with continuous outcomes.

In the AI market below, betting on xAI winning implies that the other options will lose, yet you do not have access to any of the liquidity from the people betting on OpenAI. For the Bitcoin market, you are again constrained to pre-defined options rather than naturally answering the question with your own range.

A recent paper from Paradigm explored the idea of 'continuous outcome' prediction markets where traders can bet on exact values, and set a (normal) distribution to express their confidence around that number. We explored this idea and eventually built the first example of an 'infinite outcome' prediction market. This new market mechanism overcomes many of the limitations of existing prediction markets, and even unlocks entirely new styles of market.

Onit's infinite outcome prediction market unlocks:

• Adaptive markets: If a new AI player emerges you can dynamically add options to the market, without the need to create a new liquidity pool. This also enables more personalised markets for things like 'Who will get the most reactions on Farcaster this month?' where the network can surface suggestions for others to bet on.

• More expressive markets: Instead of betting on pre-defined options like B: <$95k you can now bet $90k +/-$6k.

• Flexible topics: These infinite outcomes can be used to encode other information, enabling date ranges, exact football scores etc.

This increased flexibility enables more targeted markets which can more optimally elicit different types of information from different types of audience. Want to uncover who is most up to date with social trends? Let anyone propose options and see who added the outcome with the highest demand. Want to get an estimate of how many products you will sell this year? Run a continuous market and only allow people with an onchain transaction tied to you platform to bet.

The Onit protocol consists of 4 parts:

• Smart Contracts: A set of immutable smart contracts that deploy our infinite outcome markets

• API: To create markets or bets, and get data related to any market

• SDK: For building prediction market components and accessing typed API data

• Onit App: The consumer entrypoint for the protocol is the currently launched as a Farcaster Frame where users can access a range of markets and discover where their friends stand on certain topics.

The full protocol can be used by any dapp, company, or individual to deploy markets to elicit information relevant to them. Building onchain uniquely enables the protocol to analyse bettors onchain transaction history and surface markets that are most relevant to them.

Over the coming weeks we will be rolling out our API to more teams, so if you are building an app that could benefit from decentralised prediction markets for sport, politics, crypto, or beyond, drop us a message.

• A prediction market protocol that lets users or companies create customisable prediction markets - think Uniswap for prediction markets

• Unlike existing prediction markets, Onit allows bettors to choose exact outcomes, or create a new outcome if it doesn’t exist yet.

  • Instead of ‘Will more than 100k people attend the event?’ you can bet ‘120k people +/- 10k will attend’

  • For markets like ‘Which product will sell most in 2025?’ users are incentivised to be the first one to add the correct answer as they get a bonus.

• A composable protocol for anyone to use. We are building the market smart contracts which enable these unique market types and an SDK that lets other projects embed them in any dapp.

• Continuous Outcomes: Choose any value and set a confidence range. Win if the resolved value lies anywhere in your range.

• Date Markets: Select a range of dates and win a share of the pot if the true outcome falls on any of your days.

• Leaderboards: See where you stand against other Farcaster users

  

• Researched and built the first continuous outcome prediction market onchain.

• Received great user reactions across Farcaster and Twitter:

  horsefacts 🚂 on Warpcast

  this is cool https://warpcast.com/peterferguson.eth/0x4792a3ef

  Farcaster

  

  Dave White on Warpcast

  🤯 https://warpcast.com/peterferguson.eth/0x4792a3ef

  Farcaster

  
  

  Rainbow

  @rainbowdotme

  

  Fortune tellers and forecastooors will love this
  
  New Prediction Markets protocol! With @onit_fun you aren't constrained by market makers or pre determined options. Make any market you want, have more fun
  
  Date range markets just released, we love what you're building…

  

  17

  23:30 • 28 Feb 2025

• Onit Frame Users: 0 → 583

• Total Bets: 0 → 39

• Week 1 Volume: $244

• 3 projects requesting Onit markets in their apps, these will be the first to get access to the Onit API.

• Rollout API to initial protocol users.

• Develop UI for new market types (percentage markets, improvements to date markets)

• Product feedback. Try out the frame and let us know what you think!

• Intros to investors. If you know any investors interested in protocols, or prediction markets, we'd love to be put in touch (if that sounds like you, drop me a message below and I can send our memo!)

Contact:

Telegram: james_onit

Follow Us: Farcaster | Twitter