Orion will live long into the next few decades - but after this transition, it will emerge as a tech company (which will also be synonymous with a regular company). This time, though - OG will be on a bit of a mission.

Volumetric Design, Agentic Systems, Distributed Trust Layers, Blockchain, Stablecoins and RWA’s. We think the time has finally come where we can lean into the future of real estate, and away from the past of Capital Markets and IRR-based investments.

This is about systems. This is about infrastructure.

Stable Living.

Whole Body Design™

TotalTenancy™

Digital Equity.

We can’t completely divulge (or better said, annunciate) how we’ll emerge. But we can say we’ve reconsidered our relationship with profit, we have a new appreciation for time, and we’re exploring with compasses, not following maps.

Our ‘growth mindset’ is emergence.

We can’t wait to see what happens.

#TinyGiants

Photo by Grigorii Sukhorukov on Unsplash

Less office. More orbit.™

This is our Copernican moment.

We have several complex projects in house right now. An OpCo/PropCo called ‘Deep Gap’ an AI bot called ‘BigLove’, and an urban planning / economic development project called ‘PathHub.’

Each of these projects takes on a traditional DevOps form. We’re always striving for collaboration, automation, and continuous improvement to deliver results faster and more reliably. We have a pretty good handle on the operational silos that cause logjams, and we’ve (for the most part) engineered these silos out of our process. At very least, we’re successfully shining a spotlight on the dark spots.

As a distributed team, we recognize the elemental design at play here:

1. Single Source of Truth Documentation.

2. Centralized Repository.

3. Centralized Comms Platform.

4. Sync and Async Work Styles.

5. Personal Operating Manuals.

Similar to the way Samin Nostrat brilliantly brought us his cookbook; *Salt, Fat, Acid, Heat: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking…..*these basic elements are the key ingredients to our recipe for success here at Orion Growth. These projects are waaay crazier and more ambitious than any we’ve ever worked on before. The incredible humans behind them are passionate, purpose-driven, problem solvers who think in circles, not lines. The goal isn’t the end. The goal is the circle. We will shatter performative metrics by embedding true accounting for things like impact, value, and benefit that haven’t been effectively measured (or valued) before. We’re rebalancing the balance sheet….

So where does AI come into this?

The fundamental structures of AI - neural nets, deep learning, ML, intelligent automation - all refer to tech that has emerged over the last 50 years or so. Just recently, we’ve seen an explosion in AI in terms of its generative form; chatbots, one-on-one conversations - LLM’s that produce pictures and video from human prompt.

Fascinating stuff.

As K Allado-McDowell points out in Designing Neural Media, AI isn’t always generative. Much of the AI that has emerged is perceptual. “Critical and ethical conversations in the last decade dwelt on the proper limits of facial recognition, how we might apply machine sensing of voiceprint, gait and sentiment without empowering totalitarian regimes, or on the nature of digital biometric doubles. The same technology that powered sensing systems developed into the generative AI that we know today.” Whether generative or perceptual, AI use neural nets - math - inspired by the biological structures found in our brains. The compute of neural nets was only limited by the compute of the machine - so for a long time, neural nets only lived in theory.

Not anymore.

Centralized Processors have given way to Graphical Processors. Computational throughput has gone exponential. 3D Vector Graphics are the norm. Rendering in engines like Unity and Unreal are commonplace for games, but companies like V-Ray, OctaneRender, and Arnold are increasingly being used in various industries like architecture, engineering, and construction to create realistic and high-quality visuals.

It’s all about high dimensionality.

The AI systems we’re building have to be able to express themselves. In math and neural nets, that means fidelity and dimensionality. If we want the outcome to be ‘lifelike’ it has to be multi-dimensional or it will feel ‘flat.’ In addition, it has to have spatial awareness and cognitive recognition. This ultimately leads to a sense of familiarity - a relationship with the project that can relate to that relationship. Benjamin Bratton refers to AI as “Matter, thinking about matter, making matter that thinks.” - I’ll wait while you read that again. It blew my mind too.

This is where it becomes relative.

As our friend Einstein wrote: E=mc2

We’re living in a 4-dimensional world, and our machines are finally allowing us to experience, and explore them. We’ve moved from Math to Physics - and we ended up in the Relativity Rabbit Hole: Time.

Now I’m not sure which is our most precious resource - our ideas or time, but as I approach 50, I’m starting to see the treadwear on my Nikes. Unraveling space wasn’t on my bucket list - so I’ll have to leave that for our nexTgen of future explorers. For now, we’re working on the things we can so our work has an impact in time and space right now. This is Long-Now thinking. It addresses the long, but it does it right now.

The Urgency for Urgency.

In a world captivated by immediacy, we often mistake movement for progress. Right now, there are many examples of the race to the bottom. Urgency isn’t about frenetic reaction, it’s about conscious, decisive action - rooted in a profound respect for what’s ahead. Working ‘long-now’ is the antitode to short-termism. It means making decisions today that honor the generations who will inherit the results tomorrow. It’s about Re: everything - ReDesign, ReStructure, ReFinance, ReTeach, ReLearn, ReBuild - not just through market cycles (in which I have been through 5 once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis’s) but through paradigm shifts. Sounds like it would make a great book, (hint, hint).

True urgency isn’t about doing more, faster. It’s about doing the right things now - intentionally, courageously - so that the future isn’t a casualty of our present convenience. We have to act urgently because the future is already here. The work of resilience can’t wait.

The AI Officer’s Spyglass isn’t just a metaphor, it’s a tool for a mission. It’s the lens we hold steady while we’re exploring what’s essential. It’s the deliberate act of looking out, seeing deeper, and setting course through the uncharted waters of time and technology. It sharpens our view while extended, yet it fits in our pocket for convenience and security.

Explorers use compasses, not maps. I’m also packing a spyglass.

(This was originally posted in Substack)

https://substack.com/@chrismoeller

Unrest. Volatility. Risk.

As humans - particularly humans of privilege - we naturally avoid risk to achieve stability. The peaks and valleys of volatility are shaved off in an effort to find peace and balance. If we have entropy, we seek order. In Systems Theory or Philosophy of Science, that shift to order is called Syntropy.

My curiosity and understanding of these concepts stems from my research in global economics, technology, and money. I had to start wide and move towards some form of order and organization. For me, it started by brushing up on anthropology, physics, and computer science. History, kinetics, and tech. I was in search of how we got here, our relationship with energy, and the tools that enabled it. Emergence didn’t happen overnight, but it’s currently accelerating with velocity.

Want to see a glaring example of the entropy of privilege? Look no further than modern workplace dynamics among knowledge workers. The American executive with a massive salary talks about thought leadership and workplace strategy. No global experience. Massive financial cushion. Zero understanding of computer science, global economics, or emerging technology. This person is influencing decisions about the validity of returning to a centralized office in hopes of restoring middle management practices in the name of collaboration. Going backward to a construct or ideal that somehow together, and between the hours of precisely 9a-5p between Monday and Friday we do our best work, together. This stems from an ancient employment agreement with a job description that hasn’t been revisited since receiving tenure.

Despite the irony, every two weeks at precisely the same time, a draft of US dollars is automatically deposited into a checking account. Sure, there are a few periodic reviews of this person’s performance, but for the most part, this person is conducting the reviews not receiving them. This is called a salary and the learning part of their career was over years ago.

This is current state. This is not future state.

The construct of the American dream is radically changing. Value is being placed on agency and autonomy. Constraints are giving way to flexibility. We’re no longer willing to miss the baseball game or the dance recital, and we will make massive concessions to ensure we are there. Value and benefit are no longer solely measured in dollars and cents.

We need teachers. We need nurses. We need artists. We need first responders. We need community.

Homeownership? Not on a $60k salary for a $450k house at 5% interest. Car ownership? Not at $35K, 7% interest, and the highest insurance rates in history. Stock market? Hard pass on gambling with the money that’s so difficult to come by. Oh, and tack on the student loans and constant reminders of ballooning healthcare costs.

Even if we have the money invested, it has to work at 7% ARR to break even. The S&P averages 9.95% if you can stomach the risk of moving markets. “Get in now while the timing is right” or “Don’t get caught sleeping during a sell-off”. The reality is that the investment vehicles we have to choose from are all subject to the decisions of the market movers. It’s also no secret the stability of the investments of the 1% depends on the participation from the future generations.

We’ve borrowed the future from the future generations.

Home Ownership

If you follow me on Linkedin, you know I’m focused on building resilient communities. Here is some reasoning behind why I think the appropriate vehicle for a stable middle class is through Pathways communities:

The total cost of owning a home has skyrocketed.

Price:

The inflation-adjusted cost of a home in America increased from $459,810 in 2019 to $570,511 in 2022. +24% since 2019.

Expenses:

Homeowners spend an average of $17,958/yr on non-mortgage expenses such as utilities, maintenance, taxes, and insurance. +26% since 2020. This does not include HOA fees which have also skyrocketed due to rising labor and maintenance costs, capital improvement funds, common area utilities and regulatory changes, and local ordinances.

Price and expense are low-hanging fruit in the current value proposition discussion of homeownership. A wider awareness of currency debasement and total cost of ownership is necessary to get a more accurate picture of these forces. Currency and capital are not the same thing.

Example:

Let’s say I made two parallel investments in 2000. I bought a home for $100,000 and I bought $100,000 of gold bars. Both are hard assets, with differing degrees of utility and value.

In 2020, I decide to sell both.

My $100,000 home is now worth $250,000 - a 150% increase. My TCO is approximately $50,000 (over 20 years) leaving me with a $100,000 net gain not accounting for brokerage fees. There is additional value and benefit in the fact that it afforded me and my family a place to live and afforded us a sense of community.

My $100,000 in gold is now worth $609,900 minus $20,000 in storage fees which nets me $586,900 over the same period.

Now let’s get crazy.

In 2019, I’m introduced to Bitcoin. My gains from gold and housing were lucrative so I decide to invest some of that in something speculative. I don’t know much about stocks but I know it’s difficult to time the market conditions. Bitcoin was introduced to me as a long-term store of value so my strategy is to buy and hold it. I buy 3 BTC at $7,000 and put them on a cold storage wallet.

Today, that $21,000 investment in BTC is worth about $270,000 or +1185%. We didn’t talk about tax obligation on the exit of gold/home investments but even if I pay 20% capital gains ($49,800) on my BTC, I would still net $200K.

This is the tip of the iceberg. It’s also where all the questions, biases, and misinformation start coming in. I’m not an economist. This isn’t financial advice. I am an entrepreneur whose job is to seek and recognize opportunity and I have as many questions as you.

Here’s what I know.

With opportunity comes risk. With opportunity comes volatility. With opportunity comes entropy. Winners and losers. Right and wrong.

This is the future.

I have nothing but respect for the Oracle of Omaha. There is roadmap after roadmap and textbook after textbook out there TELLING you how to invest. There are CPA’s and CFP’s who have built their hard-earned reputation on fundamental truths behind money management. Everyone has something to offer in terms of what worked for them. Listen to them but DYOR. Explorers use compasses, not maps.

Here’s what else I know.

The BTC ETF was approved one year ago. (January 10, 2024) BlackRock Inc’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) smashed every industry record. In 11 months, it grew to more than $50B in assets. “Simply put, no ETF has ever had a better debut.”

Bitcoin's market cap grew to just under $2T.

1.3% of the world’s population owns Bitcoin.

The United States is currently in custody of 213,297 BTC valued at $20B.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis R-Wyo promoted her legislation to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

At least 13 US states are crafting legislation for Bitcoin reserves, signaling its rising importance in public finance.

And most importantly - the true utility and functionality of Ordinal inscription is yet to be realized. The Script is currently prioritized for security and stability but complex smart contract functionality is not readily available.

So what?!

Well, for one, the future doesn’t look much like the past. It’s important to understand the basics of economics so we can explore new possibilities. When the USA ended the gold standard and took us off Bretton Woods, our monetary system changed forever. When we introduce massive amounts of currency back into our economy to counteract recessionary forces, there are consequences. When we borrow money today, and issue promissory notes for tomorrow, those promissory notes require repayment or (at very least) future participants to trade debt to keep things afloat. Some go so far as calling fiat currency Ponzi. No matter what you believe or what you come to conclude, the US Dollar is still the strongest currency on the planet. Influences like BRICS and ‘dedollarization’ signal the global intent to trade more national currencies. Competition to build alternative financial infrastructure is very, very real.

Final thought for all of my Commercial Real Estate readers….

Trepp reported that CMBS delinquency rates surged in December - Office hit an all-time high (11% up 63bps) and Retail saw the largest respective rate increase. Capital markets are on fire. Ask a bond trader.

Meanwhile, the industry talk is full of speculative talk about the impact office workers have on delis, dry cleaners, and parking decks.

The beat goes on - the question is how long.

I’m Chris Moeller and I help build #resilientcommunities. Ask me how.

Song pairing:

https://open.spotify.com/track/60glT2wsoSHV3B8yCRSB8v?si=d54b30f61014483f

See also - Anthony Pompliano, Jack Mallers, Michael Saylor, Jordi Visser, Tim Bilyeu

Photo by Drew Beamer on Unsplash

I attended a workshop last week in Western North Carolina, an area that somehow escaped the wrath of Hurricane Helene. City leaders were coming together to discuss the storm and their respective responses. This was the 7th storm-effected county I had visited since the rains started, but it wasn’t the first time I had heard that particular conversation. They were taking inventory. They were processing the gravity of the event. They were mourning the loss and thanking the Heavens for being spared.

Awareness to assemble is vital to creating and maintaining a resilient community.

I want to share my current inventory with you.

We are never too old to learn. Lessons aren’t saved for the classroom. We have to understand our weakness to maintain our strength.

We are never too old to learn.

I use the analogy of the ‘Sage on the Stage’ a lot these days. I think it comes from the countless conferences I’ve attended over the last 5 years that have left me underwhelmed. I’m generalizing, but the keynotes have felt canned. Maybe I need to find better conferences, but let’s be honest, the conference industry is equal parts programming and profit. Depending on the industry, the programming can be stale…yet the show must go on. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in on AI - I just don’t need to hear another white dude in a hoodie telling me all the ways I’m not effectively using the tool.

My point? I’m trading in conferences for seminars and substituting keynotes for workshops. It doesn’t feel like we need inspiration right now. We need education. We need awareness. We need to expand our minds and hearts in new directions. Resilient communities are inclusive communities. We need diversity of thought and a willingness to explore. Burn the playbook. Throw out the map. We need to roll up our sleeves and get our hands in the dirt. We need more “Guides on the Side.”

I can’t move past education until I ramble a little bit about curriculum.

As a GenXer, I am all too familiar with computer-aided everything. Design, Drafting, Gaming, Math, Communication, Music, Art, Research. I remember the analog world and it was slower and harder. Mail. News. Mixtapes (okay that part was actually epic) Mimeographs. Textbooks. Clapping Erasers. Microfiche. Information wasn’t a click away - it was locked inside a catalog of 22 books called an encyclopedia. Access and awareness has changed. As a connected world, the information is at our fingertips and our education system needs a CTRL>ALT>DELETE. Purpose, meaning, and curiosity need to prevail over command and control, memorization, and indexing. That doesn’t mean we can’t incorporate a traditional approach, in fact, it means we can incorporate values, ethics, and understanding because we have more time. Lean in. Don’t be scared. Guide.

Lessons Aren’t Saved for the Classroom

When I reflect on my ‘school years’ not a single memory exists from my traditional classes. I remember my paint smock. I remember the smell of clay. I remember watching the Space Shuttle Challenger explode. I remember distance learning with a classroom in North Carolina (I grew up in Connecticut). I remember Nature’s Classroom in 7th grade - vividly. I remember hosting an exchange student from Southport England. I remember being an exchange student in Southport England. I remember the grit that boarding school taught me. I remember being scared when I chose to go away to college 800 miles from home.

The events of Hurricane Helene have reminded me that ‘They is us.’ We are the community. We are the ones who respond. We bring all of our knowledge, resources, and experiences to the table. The uniqueness in each of us is how we solve complex problems. We are an army of #tinygiants, each armed with a pedigree of human experience and individual knowledge. A world of specialization creates a world of dependency. Recognizing dependencies makes us more resilient.

The way the communities of Western North Carolina are coming back together is nothing short of amazing. Resiliency is front of mind. Necessity is the mother of invention. The soil has been disturbed. The seeds have been sowed. In natural cycles, we bear witness to birth, growth, death, and decay. From the decay comes birth and that’s exactly what’s happening in our mountain communities. Emergence. That’s what happens.

Weakness into Strength

Blisters. Callouses. Aches and pains. I will never forget my second day of my first construction job. I could barely get out of bed. I had spent the previous day pulling out an old vapor barrier in a crawlspace. I was working by myself that day. In, out, up, down, pull, push, fold, cut, crawl, climb. Aside from cutting out after #helene, that was the single most physical day of work I can remember. I swear the universe has a way of reminding us that our weaknesses can turn into strengths…but not without pain, healing, and reflection.

Many factors contribute to creating resiliency. Hardiness, emotional connection, coping, regulation, awareness, science, self-confidence, diversity of thought, and curiosity are a few that come to mind. The best open-innovation workshops I have conducted have had the greatest divergence of thought in the room. Free-flowing, unrestricted, creative thought happens most in our neurodivergent population. My research into (and experience with neurodiversity) has exposed me to the virtue of superpowers. What used to get us ‘the corner’ in the classroom of the 80s now gets us to a deeper conversation if properly moderated and facilitated.

In regenerative systems, we focus on returning strength and resilience to the host. A resilient host will resist externalities and thwart infection. At the farm, the host is the soil. There is no more important ‘system’ to the seed than the soil microbiome. It determines the yield count and nutritional quality. The magic happens where you can’t see it. Weak soil (impregnated with chemical fertilizers) may boost yield but at the expense of nutritional quality. Turning weakness into strength within natural systems causes a little pain. That pain reminds us of our ability to grow stronger. If you feel pain, you’re alive - and you’re growing.

So we’re never too old to learn, the lessons of life don’t necessarily happen in a classroom, and we have the ability to turn our weaknesses into strengths. To me, the hardest part of building resilient systems is reintroducing the human back into the loop. We are so engaged with artificial and linear systems that snapping out tends to be our biggest obstacle. Getting outside and experiencing the wonders of the world helps ground me in awareness. I love the ocean because of its constant reminder of endless energy. I love the mountains because the vastness of the view makes me feel small. I love the rain because it washes away the dust and debris. I love the sun because of the way it feels on my skin. Pair a walk in the woods with a fire and some music and you’ll find me in my best place.

That’s where you’ll find me doing my best work. 🌳🔥🌄

Learn more about my work here.

Song Pairing:

https://open.spotify.com/track/1ID7FIrnDFtAoRebVRBhlO?si=8d5495388fef452c

Photo by Albert Canite on Unsplash

We are inside of 2 weeks since Hurricane Helene. Having seen that storm firsthand - and participating in recovery - I bore witness to multiple systems failures that contributed to the scale of the devastation. This storm proved my theory that power and data systems are as critical as roads and bridges. Infrastructure is being redefined and we need to recognize dependencies and build in resilience.

Design MUST include performance. Without performance requirements, we can’t measure how something does when it matters the most. Sustainable design needs to incorporate full life-cycle science into the essence of the project. We can’t continue to use traditional project management methods and select ‘green’ products that help us achieve certification. The design process is the most critical path to building performance standards and we need to get better at it.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said FEMA didn’t have enough money in the Disaster Relief Fund. There are currently hundreds of employees deployed in North Carolina (along with 1000’s of Federal workers) and they’re struggling with a shortage of employees to respond to Florida. Catastrophic climate events are happening at an increasing rate and with increasing severity, and the disaster recovery agency wasn’t designed for the reality of climate change.

Rate and type of change

In 2023, we had 28 major weather and climate disasters in the US causing $92.9B in damage. In the 1980’s there were fewer than 8 per year. (source) The amount of money in the Disaster Relief Fund, coupled with insurance policy exclusions and the TYPE of damage equates to a system failure. $20B doesn’t go very far when it has to support aging roads and bridges, complex power and data grids, rising sea levels, compounding water vapor, trade labor shortage, supply chain interruption, and rising construction costs. Remember, we’re battling drought, wildfires, floods, and storms.

Hurricanes are more intense. Wildfires burn longer and hotter. Extreme heat waves last longer. Drought conditions persist. Global warming is correlated to precipitation intensity and totals. Sea level rise contributes to floods. Winter storms hit harder.

Numbers aren’t numbers

Beyond the measure of direct damage are numbers that can be described as fuzzy at best. The reason behind that is still unclear to me - but the method by which we deploy financial resources is clear: frequently and recklessly. We will never know the real numbers because we aren’t capturing the real spending. No politics, facts.

The $20B that is ‘budgeted’ in the Disaster Relief Fund is seed money. The ‘real’ money is spent after the damage is already done. Studies suggest that every dollar that is spent to make a community more resilient - better construction and infrastructure, better land use and zoning, better planning, and other investments - can save the community $13 in return when a disaster hits. There is evidence of this - but it’s hard to find and you have to squint to find towns and municipalities who have fully embraced it.

FEMA has a BRIC program that focuses on risk mitigation. This is a proactive program that puts avoidance at the front of the intended result. Things like managing fuel, securing drinking water, improving evacuation routes, improving flood plains, requiring building science metrics, dependency awareness programs, and improving utility distribution systems all help to mitigate risk.

A little closer to home for me is a program called Appalachian Regional Initiative for Stronger Economies ARC Arise. My research and desire to create a resilient fund of patient capital that focuses on investments in attainable-sustainable and progressive workforce housing has led me to their work. My focus is currently in Southwestern Virginia, Northeastern Tennessee, and Northwestern North Carolina - an area that was impacted heavily by #Helene. Supply chain infrastructure such as rail and interstate, coupled with reasonable land cost and a deeply depressed labor market has contributed to my decision to focus on this section of Appalachia. It is ripe for responsible transition investments. Here are some additional groups and resources that I hope to become more familiar with: Central Appalachian Network, Opportunity Appalachia, West Virgina Development Office, and Rural Development Innovation Group.

The resources are there

At the Federal level, we see programs like the Community Reinvestment Act, BankOn, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund, and Executive Orders of the President of the United States like Justice 40. At the core of these programs is education, access, and awareness. They aim to tackle WICKED problems like Climate Change, Clean Energy, Energy Efficiency, Clean Transit, Affordable and Sustainable Housing, Training and Workforce Development, Rediation and Reduction of Legacy Pollution, and Development of Critical Clean Water and Wastewater Infrastructure. This line of thinking requires proper literacy and a common language.

❌ We can’t keep rebuilding the same buildings in the same places.

❌ We can’t keep supporting legacy systems that take more resources than they give.

❌ We can’t keep accepting catastrophic events as unique or novel.

❌ We can’t keep accepting exclusions in policies.

❌ We can’t keep educating in silos around specialties.

✔ We can create a common literacy around responsible design and construction.

✔ We can create a better curriculum that promotes and informs resilient practice.

✔ We can create accountability in zoning and planning.

✔ We can change the ROI models of transition investments to include patient capital.

✔ We can promote and practice being pro-business and pro-planet simultaneously.

So now what

To make all this work, it’s going to take three things:

Synergy

Energy

Accountability

We have to pull government, higher ed, private development, NGO’s, communities, entrepreneurs, and corporations together.

The roads will be cleared. The power will be restored. The debris piles will be removed….and the people of these communities will be left with the clean-up and the bills. As I wrote in a recent post, “They is us.” We are the first and last responders and perhaps we should consider a new approach that includes concepts like avoidance, resilience, and awareness. There is no waiting. The programs that support these efforts are in place. Just as open industry was left to create research and development opportunities in post-war times…..free market economics allow us to make transition investments in open innovation and resilient design now. We can demystify and deflate politically charged words and simply do the right thing. Nothing is stopping us except us.

If the journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step, let’s go shoe shopping. I’m gonna buy work boots.

#tinygiants is a group being formed on LinkedIn. The premise of the group is pretty simple: Positive Actions + Consistency + Time = Compounding Results. I am recruiting an army of #tinygiants.

This entry’s song pair is Shine

https://open.spotify.com/track/2mHenqaNpcU7q3JP4V4Oee?si=ec72e475a9ce4dde

Photo by Isaac Quesada on Unsplash

Have we thought about the hay that washed away or will be lost to rot? The moisture levels lead to bacteria, mold, and fungus - all producing mycotoxins that are harmful to livestock. That hay can’t be consumed. How does one account for all the energy it took to get those hayfields to produce? Do the farmers get reimbursed for those inputs or just the cost per bail? Do they get reimbursed for the silage they’ll need to provide to overwinter? What impact will that have on our beef industry?

What about the lost revenues? Agritourism will be non-existant this year. As I watched Wilson Creek crest and spill over, I saw thousands upon thousands of pumpkins floating downstream. The U-pick business generally accounts for the lion's share of the revenue. It’s an experience and a product so it allows these farmers a means to better balance sheets. The Ashe County Corn Maze and Pumpkin Festival brought in thousands of visitors. The maze was totaled.

We see floating cars. We see damaged buildings. It’s not hard to quantify the loss of personal property in terms of asset value - but what about the real cost? What about the stress this puts on families and communities who were already on the edge? How do we measure beyond the insurance policy?

I certainly don’t have the answers, but I do know this:

We can’t continue to expect different results if we continue normalizing reactive systems. Some preventative maintenance is required. These are not ‘normal’ storms but the intensity and frequency are increasingly normal. Policies need to be updated. Resiliency needs to be cooked back into the recipe and systems need to change.

While we’re talking about it…

Climate change is showing. Increased surface temperatures (warming) is producing more water vapor (greenhouse gas) which is making fatter clouds. Increased humidity impacts upper atmospheric wind currents which become less effective at moving dense clouds - resulting in slower storms and higher precipitation totals. Our impervious surfaces continue to diminish (for a host of reasons including hydrophobic soil structure and human development). Human behavior (in part) plays an important role in the hydrologic cycle - one of the many natural systems that is misbehaving. Maybe she’s reacting? Maybe she’s pissed? Maybe we should ask ourselves what we can do.

We can’t stop #Milton. We’re not even close to being done cleaning up after #Helene. Prevention has to come in a different form. Building science, coupled with better planning and zoning and new accountability partnerships has to be formed. We have to build resilience into the systems that inform extreme drought, freeze, winter storms, wildfires, floods, tropical cyclones, and severe storms.

✔ Better data leads to better planning.

✔ Better planning leads to better building.

✔ Better building leads to improved resilience.

✔ We need to start considering systems over symptoms.

📏You can’t manage what you can’t measure 📏

Godspeed Florida. We see you. 🌎

Here are some resources if you’re interested: c2es resources.org USGS-STN NGWMN National Centers for Environmental Information

To memorialize some of the small towns I’ve been trying to spread awareness for: Lansing, NC Damascus, VA Creeper Trail Wilson Creek Drone

No song pairing today.

Since last Wednesday, I’ve been graced with so many new connections and opportunities. My data collection at The Retreat at Firefly Farm, coupled with some front-line reporting on Linkedin has led to the most amazing benefit of all, human connection. I learned about S2S technology and the amazing work of Matt Stein at Salient Predictions. I was introduced to Lisa Whited….author, speaker, and academic, and Bob Keefe, Executive Director of E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs). Each is related but not connected. That’s the power of social networking and mission-driven work.

As I type, Hurricane Milton is named and gaining strength in the Gulf. We are still inside 10 days after Helene wreaked havoc on the Southeastern US and we’re already seeing another Gulf-source storm. It doesn’t take a scientist to see what’s different from this one (and similar to its predecessor). At the leading edge of this storm is another storm. Presoak.

On my journey of understanding regenerative systems and systems technology, I’ve encountered a few common threads. Linear systems and legacy methods continue to dominate most of the analytics, inferences, and predictive models. Graphical processing hasn’t given way to Neural Processing and Chemistry hasn’t given way to Physics, yet. My 12,000 data points a month are showing me things I never could have seen before. They helped me know what to expect in Grayson County VA days ahead of the meteorologist’s forecast…and much, much more locally. Microclimate data is different than weather and S2S using oceanic conditions and matching them with atmospheric predictions with physics-informed neural nets (PINNs) is a total game changer.

By the way - I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT.

Awareness vs understanding vs mastery - three different phases. I’m hyper-aware and I’m drinking from a firehose, but I’ve got a pretty firm grasp on it now. A deep understanding of forecasting has a massive impact on the global supply chain, well-being, disaster avoidance, and food supply. Where weather tells you you should bring an umbrella, microclimate data tells you you should bring foul weather gear and chainsaw. It also tells you why the event is happening.

Look, a lot has been thrown at me these last couple of weeks. I went from clearing roads and participating in search/rescue to the unintended emotional side of crash and guilt. This storm is a WICKED problem, best described by the complexity of layers. Engineering failure, design failure, systems failure, shock, emotional trauma. Every system that supports communities was at some point broken, including human spirit.

While my efforts of human & emotional support will continue well into the future with #tinygiants on LinkedIn (always recruiting), I have a new-found purpose to dispel the myths that ‘sustainability’ is too hard to achieve. I plan to deconstruct that term with the hopes of building back better. I hope to help illustrate patterns of consumption and bring awareness to dMRV models that support EOV. It’s time to move past the linear systems of the Industrial Revolution and into the modern version of Ecological Economics. Transition investments and new units of measure that consider value and benefit in the P&L.

It’s time to rebalance the balance sheet. It’s time to achieve a better environmental literacy. It’s time to start understanding circular systems and their regenerative benefit. It’s time to get to work.

Song Pairing: Men At Work - Who Can It Be Now?

https://open.spotify.com/track/5rfJ2Bq2PEL8yBjZLzouEu?si=cb9dca7a8e514017

Be patient. Listen to her words. 144 hours prior, their life was ‘normal’. She does an amazing job processing out loud. What got me really thinking is when she said, “When there’s a hurricane, it happens- then you go clean it up, and that’s it,” and then she says this: “This is just different. It’s so layered with struggles. The no water, the no resources, the no access, the no roads that exist, the no bridges that exist anymore…” She finishes that thought by saying, “We just don’t have a place in our brains to explain what’s happening.” Woah.

I heard broken networks.

I heard vulnerable dependencies.

I heard human suffering.

If that isn’t the definition of catastrophic, I’m not sure what is.

She mentioned all the “layers.” All of their networks are temporarily disconnected. Their human network, their engineered network, and their neural network are all off, simultaneously. No water, no power, no gas, no internet, no TV, no cell service, no roads, no bridges, no friends, no family…. For a moment in time, they were completely and totally cut off from the outside in every conceivable way.

Alone. And for some, in Hell.

Water caused this. 2 parts hydrogen and 1 part oxygen. The very chemical compound we depend on for life caused so much destruction.

The irony.

40 trillion gallons of rainfall in Helene. 60 million Olympic-sized swimming pools. 619 days of constant water flow over the Niagra Falls. I’m going deeper.

40 trillion gallons - spread 20’ deep would cover an area of 9,616 square miles. That is roughly the size of Vermont. It’s also 1/3 the amount of water in Lake Erie.

So Climate Change?

Because the Earth’s temperature is increasing, the amount of water vapor is increasing. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas (along with aerosols) in the troposphere. (first 12km of the atmosphere). Increased water vapor plus increased UV intensity gives us more moisture and humidity. Our clouds get fat and slow, and storms become longer and more intense. The science is out there - and it has been for decades. I wrote about earlier this week here.

Our natural networks and our engineered networks are related.

Rebecca Costa wrote about this in The Watchman’s Rattle. Our systems are evolving at a rate that is faster than our ability to think…all of our systems. Technology, social networks, infrastructure, economics.

Unfortunately, this is the beginning, not the end.

We have to rethink our systems. We have to rethink our infrastructure. We can no longer afford to go about our daily lives without awareness and consciousness.

The cost of supporting legacy systems is coming at the expense of innovation.

If we isolate the signals and listen through the noise - it’s omnipresent. The discussion about education, centralized banking, capital markets, return to office, inclusion, the environment, global unrest….more more more.

Nothing in nature grows in perpetuity except cancer.

Yet we push our engineered systems way beyond their capacities. It’s more for the sake of more without consideration of better.

We need to do better, not more.

I’m recruiting an army of #tinygiants over on LinkedIn. #tinygiants are making tiny decisions, consistently and over time, to get a compounding (and hopefully beneficial) result.

This is how that looks:

Song pairing - Billy Joel We Didn’t Start the Fire - 1989 (yep, it’s been 35 years)

Photo by Jilbert Ebrahimi on Unsplash

That’s what is so peculiar about post-traumatic stress, once you’ve experienced it you have a heightened awareness and enhanced recognition for it. In my particular case, the symptom isn’t sadness or worry - it’s purpose. It’s more anxious than it is fear. It sort of feels like a dream where you're running away but can’t run fast enough….or you’re trying to convey a really important message - like a life-threatening situation - but the words won’t form from your tongue. It’s steeped in frustration.

When I allow myself to get deep enough in that space, the word frustration festers. I get frustrated that other people don’t see the flaws in the system. I get frustrated that the task-heavy cadence overburdens our ability to see better ways. I get frustrated that people aren’t patient enough to HEAR and comprehend the words. So in my dream example - it’s less about my ABILITY to annunciate the words and more about their lack of interest and inability to hear them.

It’s not the encoding or the message - or the channel, but rather the decoding and the receiver.

I suppose it could come down to noise. If we substitute ‘busyness’ or over-burdened with tasks for noise, it would look something like this:

But I’m not entirely convinced the noise impacts the sender or the message as much as it impacts the receiver. Maybe that’s a place to unpack some of this frustration. Perhaps the sender, encoding, and message are adequate but somewhere on the decoding side, the noise effects the receiver’s ability. I don’t have an image that illustrates that…but it’s interesting to contemplate.

The communication model gets far more complex when we start adding feedback loops and introducing the quality of the messaging and the efficiency of the channel.

Another factor I haven’t seen introduced is bias. I believe that bias can be a version of noise that impairs our ability to receive certain messages. I know I have inherent biases that trigger visceral responses as soon as I hear them. Queue the eye-rolls and pull down the curtain. Who wants to hear that?

So back to how I feel today.

It’s my first day back to work after bearing witness to Hurricane Helene. What started out as a pretty simple weekend in the woods went south fast. The rain kept falling, and the creeks kept rising. Warnings gave way to evacuations and the winds came in. Trees fell, power went out, and we all became disconnected. Some could even say they were trapped.

I had the good fortune of being at our farm. I had all the tools and I felt obligated to help the community.

Out with the chainsaw I went. Cutting limbs, regaining access, and putting the network back together. 36 hours later, I stopped. I was out of gas - literally and figuratively. I couldn’t lift my arms above my head.

My exhaustion gave way to evaluation. Evaluation gave way to reflection. And now reflection is giving way to emotion. It’s not sadness, although my compassion for people during this trying time is front and center. I watched houses float down rivers. Cars, trailers, lawnmowers, grills - you name it and I saw it floating by. No, I wasn’t sad.

I was angry.

….and I still am.

I’m angry because I feel like I’m not being heard. It’s like running without friction or screaming without volume.

To me these system failures are evident. Our leadership is busy being preoccupied by things that USED to matter rather than focusing on what we can do right now that will start to influence the future.

For anyone with kids - I’m preaching to the choir.

For anyone with adult kids - I’m falling on deaf ears.

For anyone who might want kids - I’m spitting fire.

For the kids - We hear you and we’ve got you.

This is a system failure, not a symptom in need of treatment. There are no bandaids left in the box. This is an inflection point, for me. One that I will reflect on and be able to say with absolute certainty changed my path and set me on course correction.

I’m mad.

I’m mad at everyone who chooses to ignore the science and data.

I’m mad at everyone who is in a position of leadership that can’t hold an intelligent conversation about climate, environment, and social impact. I’m even more mad that these ‘leaders’ have access to resources and they’re burning them on ephemeral shit like management training and driving shareholder value.

I’m mad that the earth is on fire and everybody is too distracted to recognize it.

We have to put in the work. We have to make a common language. We have to give each other the grace to learn from one another and the space to do it at our own pace. We have to be humble and self-aware because the only real way out of this is the same way we got in, behavior. We have to be intentional, persistent, and patient.

    **…little decisions made consistently over time give us compounding ideas…**

Where I rode out the storm in Grayson County Virginia, we saw 11.5” of rainfall in just under 24 hours. This is according to the closest USGS data collection station in Volney, VA, about 10 miles away. 10 miles isn’t close enough to give me accurate microclimate data, but it’s all I have right now. I will know more once the power is restored and I can access the data from our actual property.

We need to talk.

Let’s connect some dots, specifically scientific dots.

1. The Earth is round - if you don’t believe it, stop reading now.

2. The Earth is warming - if you don’t believe it, stop reading now.

3. Climate change and weather are not the same thing.

4. Weather and microclimate data are not the same thing.

I would start with the first point, but no….just no. So let’s start with warming patterns and why that’s important.

Warming Trends

If we go back 50 years - a period that feels modern enough where we weren’t licking our fingers to figure out wind speed and direction - we can see a trend. Through the 1970’s there was a period of modest warming of about +.1C° to +.2C°. It continued to tick up through the 1980’s to +.3C° to +.4C°. This continued pretty exponentially to now - where those numbers are +1.2°C to +1.3C° (so far in the 2020’s). Don’t believe it or skeptical? The four sources I considered credible were NASA’s Goddard Institute, NOAA, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Berkeley Earth. This is what that looks like over the last 5 decades:

1970s: +0.1°C to +0.2°C above pre-industrial levels.

1980s: +0.3°C to +0.4°C.

1990s: +0.5°C to +0.6°C.

2000s: +0.6°C to +0.8°C.

2010s: +1.0°C to +1.2°C.

2020s (so far): +1.2°C to +1.3°C.

So why is that so important? Our atmosphere is made up of 5 layers. From the outside in, it’s the Exosphere, Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Stratosphere, and Troposphere. For purposes of this entry, we’ll stay inside the Stratosphere even though the remaining three play significant roles.

The ‘world’ we live in is the first 12km which is the Troposphere. It’s the lowest part of the atmosphere where weather lives. About 75% of this layer is water vapor and aerosols. This is where our weather patterns are formed. Water vapor plays a significant role in the Hydrologic Cycle, serving as a key component that directly influences weather patterns including rainfall and wind.

My focus and research on circular/regenerative systems had me queued in on water years ago. I might argue it’s the most important of Earth’s systems to humans.

The quick and gritty of the water cycle is evaporation, condensation, precipitation, and infiltration or runoff. Current warming trends have increased evaporation which has increased atmospheric moisture. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, so more water vapor amplifies warming. It’s a persistent feedback loop. When we have more evaporation, we have higher humidity. Warmer air holds more moisture. Dense clouds are harder to move. Heavy rains with slow movement cause accumulation. Soil structures impact runoff and down the creeks and rivers, we go.

I started taking gage and discharge readings of the New River on Thursday the 26th. This was roughly 12 hours before Helene made landfall in Florida 700 miles away.

The top line is the discharge of the river (in cubic feet per second). The bottom line is the gage or the ‘height’ of the river (in feet). The shaded yellow is moderate, the red is severe, and the purple is catastrophic. At its height, the New River in Galax was 21.19ft above stage and discharging nearly 108,000 ft3/s which converts to 807,896 gallons per second. In recorded history, the river has never seen these levels. This was the result of unprecedented rainfall totals in unprecedented intervals.

A shitload of rain. A short time.

There are more nuances and contributing factors like hydrophobic soil, population density, and zoning. Monoculture cropping with empty, chemically fertilized fields leads to higher runoff, etc - etc….but nuances lead to politics and politics lead to beliefs and beliefs lead to understanding. I already wrote a piece about awareness vs consciousness.

https://mirror.xyz/oriongrowth.eth/Zyxvs0uYuU1CVJSs6Nwy8VlczMo-Ew-oV1L7rQ4WxeI

This is about connecting the dots between what we experience (weather) and why it feels like it’s so damn extreme.

Weather patterns are symptoms of climate change. The atmosphere is responsible. The atmosphere is warming, causing more water vapor, which causes more humidity, which causes fat clouds, which slows upper atmosphere winds, which allows precipitation to fall for longer periods. It’s a cycle. It’s a circle. It’s a regenerative system. Composability, persistence, and interoperability. It’s a loop, and it’s not a healthy one.

A cold day in February or a record snowfall event doesn’t mean warming is not happening. It’s the same phenomenon when the earth tilts and seasons change. The troposphere is part of the global atmosphere and our local weather is a function of our microclimate data.

We can’t improve what we do not measure.

I’m two weeks away from having a complete year of microclimate data from The Retreat at Firefly Farm. I started with 8 sensors and expanded to 12. I adjusted some of the period readings from daily to hourly and others to every 30 minutes. I began to ‘see’ in terms of the 4 basic buckets - Sun, Soil, Air, and Water. UV intensity, Precipitation Rates, Soil Temperatures, and Moisture levels became of particular interest. When I got to the farm last week and looked at the data, I could see it all unfold in front of me. The data allowed me to make inferences, which allowed me to cross-reference sources (National Weather Service Radar and USGS Water Dashboard) and even make some predictions. This is what it looked like:

There isn’t time for any more denial. We have to leave those who aren’t ready behind. That’s what happens in moments of crisis. Some people don’t perceive the threat and get caught up in it.

This isn’t our Grand Daddy’s Farmer’s Almanac or the neighbor’s hip tightening up forecasting rain. Cows don’t lie down before a storm and chemical fertilizers are not inert. A little spray here and a little spray there has an impact. Forever chemicals are forever.

It reminds me of my favorite slide from my Open Innovation workshop: tiny giants.

Little decisions, made consistently, over time have compounding results - either positive or negative.

We have to ask ourselves if we’re behaving 1% better every day or if we’re behaving 1% worse every day.

We can’t improve what we do not measure.

We are measuring, but we’re not improving.

Helene wasn’t freak. It wasn’t ‘unfortunate.’ It wasn’t beyond our control. It was predictable. Microclimate data is available. Global warming is happening. Tragedy will continue. Our response to these tragedies, however, may not.

Once the remaining 600 people have been accounted for and the search and rescue moves into recovery - we will rebuild. The question remains, will we rebuild our beliefs along the way? Will we rethink our systems and our behaviors? Will we become tiny giants for the benefit of our future generations or will we continue down the path of decline?

I know my choice.

PS - I’m in search of a new job. After what I witnessed this week, I can’t think about spending one second of energy convincing anyone of anything. It’s time to build. If you know of a purpose-driven business based on transition investments, ecological economics, edtech, or climate-tech - please reach out. I’m open to a fractional position if it will help make an impact. CV upon request.

Song pairing:

https://open.spotify.com/track/3K7J5Zc64k9FzKAgaSWmu5?si=f72c2758f1794b8b

lyrics:

https://www.google.com/search?q=the+samples+when+it%27s+raiing+lyrics&sca_esv=b0746d9f5af44b5f&sca_upv=1&sxsrf=ADLYWIKouwmWmODej4wVHAF9CLpC5h1nGg%3A1727790932162&ei=VP_7ZtTMCa7nwN4PvcqmgQc&ved=0ahUKEwjUxofmqu2IAxWuM9AFHT2lKXAQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=the+samples+when+it%27s+raiing+lyrics&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiI3RoZSBzYW1wbGVzIHdoZW4gaXQncyByYWlpbmcgbHlyaWNzMgcQABiABBgNMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCBAAGIAEGKIEMggQABiABBiiBDIIEAAYogQYiQVI1CZQoglY-yRwAXgAkAEAmAGBAaABhBSqAQQ0LjE5uAEDyAEA-AEBmAIYoAKpFcICChAAGIAEGLADGArCAgcQABiwAxgewgIOEAAYgAQYsAMYhgMYigXCAgsQABiABBiwAxiiBMICBBAjGCfCAgoQIxiABBgnGIoFwgILEC4YgAQYkQIYigXCAgoQABiABBgUGIcCwgIFEAAYgATCAgUQLhiABMICCBAAGBYYHhgPwgIGEAAYFhgewgIHECMYsAIYJ8ICBxAuGIAEGA2YAwCIBgGQBgWSBwQxLjIzoAer_AE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Texts I’ve received while writing this:

“Thank you for all you do to connect and support those in your sphere.”

“The biggest challenge is getting the road to hold that weight - and more rain is set to come in on Friday.”

“When you approach the bridges to remove the debris - make sure you walk around and listen before you fire up your chainsaw. The people we’re finding are stuck under the bridges.”

“Access by vehicle to Church Ridge is impassable by mudslide. Max’s buddies did all they could the other day (working their asses off) and cleared a small walking path so they can get out by foot.”

“We just need something that can push + a large chainsaw. There weren’t any cars or people in the houses. Also - the house has collapsed in one area - heavy equipment will struggle to get up there. They need to take extreme caution.”

“We are good! Cut our way out and got down to Greenville. Met my partner at the Greenville airport and got a hot shower - the only thing I really missed! We have supplies and we’re headed back up. Grateful (again) for our Outward Bound experiences and how to thrive in chaos. We will rebuild!”

The worst messages are the ones that haven’t been answered. The silence is gut-wrenching.

Appalachian State University Disaster Recovery Page American Red Cross Samaritans Purse GoFundMe

Reach out to me directly - I will be making several trips up the mountain.

Probably best to start with how similar they are….

Both words refer to aspects of our human ability to perceive and respond to the environment, which makes them related to cognition.

con·scious·ness /ˈkänSHəsnəs/

the state of being awake and aware of one's surroundings. "she failed to regain consciousness and died two days later"

or this one:

the awareness or perception of something by a person. "her acute consciousness of Mike's presence"

Both of these definitions are very human-centric and related to presence.

a·ware·ness /əˈwernəs/

knowledge or perception of a situation or fact. "we need to raise public awareness of the issue"

or this one:

concern about and well-informed interest in a particular situation or development. "a growing environmental awareness"

Both of these definitions are social-centric and related to science.

This starts to point me in the right direction. Consciousness is a human-centered and cognitive approach to the definition while awareness is a more social and science-based approach. I even see the word ‘fact’ in one of those definitions which surprises me.

Both words are subjective experiences - how an individual experiences the world from their perspective. They imply a level of thought but don’t necessarily define the quality or quantity of that thought. They also both include perception which relies on our ability to recognize and recall information, whether internal thoughts and emotions or external sights and sounds.

“Perception is reality.” - Lee Atwater

What I’ve gathered from this is that consciousness is more internal, active, or even persistent thought whereby awareness allows for a level of reflection and processed cognition based on our experiences, beliefs, and understanding of our total environment. It feels like we can’t turn off consciousness, but we can control the volume. Conversely, we can allow ourselves a break from awareness or even offer acceptance when there is a lack of awareness due to the varied nature of social experience or understanding.

Let’s explore the differences.

Consciousness: This is a broader term that encompasses the totality of experiences = thoughts, feelings, memories, perceptions, and a sense of self. It’s the state of being awake and having a sense of existence. It involves a deeper level of cognition, including self-awareness and the ability to reflect on one’s own mental state. It begs the question of how different our abilities to do this are from individual to individual.

Awareness: More specific, it refers to the recognition or realization of a particular piece of information or sensation at a given moment. One can be aware of something like a sound or mention without being fully conscious of the broader implications or context of that awareness.

So to me, it feels like the word that helps us understand or differentiate between the two definitions is depth.

Consciousness involves higher-order thinking and self-reflection. Awareness feels more momentary and immediate.

We can’t really delineate the two without considering the state of mind. I know I’m less aware when I’m tired….or more spatially aware when I’m in a crowded city. I’m more present in my thoughts here, in the woods, than I am when I’m at my house in the city. My consciousness and awareness fluctuate in situ.

Consciousness can be present in different states - wakefulness, dreaming, or especially prevalent in altered states. It’s all-encompassing in terms of mental activity, including deep philosophical thought or even unconscious processes that still influence perception. The research on altered-state consciousness is vast and fascinating.

Awareness is part of consciousness but it can also occur in limited forms - as evidenced by animals and machines that lack human consciousness. All the talk of AI reaching cognition and its behavior being indiscernible from a human (see Turing Test) is evidence of awareness in machines. If a tree falls in a cow pasture, the cows become fully aware and run away to avoid the danger. Fight or flight is omnipresent in natural systems. As AI progresses, and we learn more about animal behavior, it’s possible these examples of awareness could progress into consciousness, but that’s WAAAY above my understanding.

As an empath, I find the most interesting aspect of these two words rests in self-reference. Consciousness implies that a person is conscious of themselves as experiencing a certain state, which includes awareness but goes on beyond it. My experience tells me that not every human who is aware is also conscious - or at very least - we have differing levels of ‘ability.’ Awareness doesn’t necessarily require self-reference. I can be aware of a sound or an object without reflecting on my role in awareness of that sound or object.

Woah, that got deep.

So I guess my conclusion is that consciousness is a broader, more encompassing state that includes awareness but also involves self-reflection, memory, and thought. Awareness is more specific and refers to the perception of immediate elements in one’s environment.

“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of (men) and things cannot be acquired by vegetating one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.” Mark Twain

Bless His Heart - he just hasn’t been around very much and he can’t seem to get out of his own way. - Literally, heard at any cookout in the South…but only if you’re aware :)

So many song pairings for this one. GenX has been noodling on this a bit…like forever.

Grunge - Alice in Chains Rotten Apple.

Hippie - Grateful Dead - Ripple

Indie - Edie Brickell & New Bohemians - What I Am

Hip Hop - Geto Boys - Mind Playing Tricks On ME {EXPLICIT}

80s - Billy Joel - We Didn’t Start The Fire

2017 - Katy Perry - Chained To The Rhythm

Photo by Mario Dobelmann on Unsplash

Nirvana come as you are

The days are growing shorter at Firefly Farm. The stem-flowers aren’t quite as strong as they were. The hayfields have been cut and rolled - ready to feed the area livestock during the harsher days ahead. The cherry tomatoes burst in abundance, casting their seed for the circular season. Assuring us they’ll return, with little human influence.

Sunrise feels gentler. The once powerful presence of energy that burst into abundance is somehow cooler. The color softer. The sounds muted. The summer volume has decreased, intentionally, to allow us the opportunity to hear the tone and pitch that fell on our encumbered Summer ears. We hear Her again.

The grass is soft, and still. The soil is cold, damp, and forgiving. The moisture of growth has returned underfoot. Deep within the soil, electrical conductivity is slowing allowing the leaf litter to percolate its depths. Fall signals death and decay. A beautiful and essential period before rebirth and growth.

Fall senses burst on the scene.

Smell, sound, sight, taste, and touch all feel somehow connected, if only ephemeral, for one glorious period of the year. Hoodies. Cider. Football. Leaves.

This is a period of deep reflection for me.

Some can’t live without the ocean.

Some can’t live without the vastness of the great plains.

Some need a long-range view to maintain perspective.

Not me. I need the Fall. It fuels my soul.

I’ve written about a lot of different subjects in this newsletter. Organizational Ecology, Future of Work, Dependencies, Return to Office, Technology, Open Innovation, Sustainability, Urban Planning, and more.

Are these disparate systems? Are they related?

I see the connections, and I can’t ignore them. Our human-designed systems are all interlinked. Because of our brains, we create complex (and sometimes unnecessary) dependencies in these systems. Nothing grows forever in nature. Growth and evolution are not the same thing. Relationship to outcomes change over time. What was once necessary gives way to new purpose and meaning.

Resources are redefined. “Because we always have'“ doesn’t necessarily mean “so we always should.”

Here are my themes to reflect on during this season of change:

Leadership qualities.

Legacy systems.

Relationships.

Dependencies.

Ecology.

Patient Capital.

Resources.

Circularity.

Upward Mobility.

Attainable / Sustainable Housing.

It’s often been said that we cannot improve upon something that is not being measured. I believe we have entered into a new era of measurement. Measuring facts. Measuring impact. Measuring value. Measuring benefit. It’s far more complicated than measuring success, and it has nothing to do with money - although almost all human-created systems eventually lead us there.

If there are no units of measurement, we will create them.

If there are no words for these themes, we will assign them.

If there are no curricula for study, we will introduce them.

As the last solar term in autumn, Frost Descent is considered a transition into winter. From then on, the frost will creep across the land, and the dew will turn to ice, shielding the tender grass below our feet. The frozen period stands still and quiet.

Wool socks, fireplaces, soup, and the silence of snowfall.

Decay is where the real work happens, for the burst of rebirth is right around the corner and the composibility and persistence behind the reason for the season never ends.

Song Pairing: September Grass James Taylor. I invite you to come lie down in the September grass.

Photo by Erik Witsoe on Unsplash

That's up 45% according to the news.

700,000 complaints were taken by the FBI - proving it's an "attractive vehicle for criminals while creating challenges to recover stolen funds."

At the risk of sounding, erm, practical - let's look at a couple of other places people 'may' have lost some money along the way last year.

CMBS - another $1.2T of CMBS loans will be due by EOY'25. The key word: another. This marks the 5th year of defaulting on non-recourse debt. It's not illegal - heck it doesn't even affect your credit score.....and in most cases, lenders are just extending terms with the hopes some poor tenant sucker will come along and sign a lease.

Morningstar, Fitch, Trepp - all try to report these numbers, but they're inconsistent. You can't Google how many people have lost everything and how many lives have been impacted by these massive market shifts. Layoffs - shuttering businesses, yet no FBI reports. Very few (if any) criminal charges.

The TRILLIONS of dollars pails in comparison to some crypto thief rugging you for $1500 with a shitcoin you were dumb enough to buy because some bro told you it was a good investment. Forex, Gold Securities, heck the general debasing of the USD has far wider implications than $5.6B worth of crypto scams. Wells Fargo paid nearly that much in fines - imagine what they got away with?

I'm not here to defend the criminal activity of crypto. I am here to call out the narrative of what's determined criminal and what's not. Shareholders of TGIFridays lost 91% of their stock value yesterday because of a decision by Citibank to terminate a management agreement.

My mind went straight to short selling and buying puts. MORE stock averaged $17GBX this year. It fell to $10GBX which was the signal. 5 days later it's $.070. No criminal investigation. No FBI. No charges. Someone's Mum in Sussex lost a lot of money - but that won't make the headlines either.

Crypto isn't the problem - it's a symptom. We love our money. We lust for our success.

The irony will be evident when people pour into the technology because of things like Zero-Knowledge Proofs, Trustless Security, Stable Store of Value, and Immutable Records. These are the solutions.

The real problem? We don’t care enough to demand change.

Until then, we'll continue to see these headlines.

Be smart out there.

Song pairing - IMY2 Cover of Wicked Game

Thanks:

Photo by Thong Vo on Unsplash

Let me let you in on a little secret: There are no new ideas.

“Wait - don’t you run an Open Innovation workshop based on new ideas?”

Sure do - but it’s not the ideas themselves that change the world. It’s the ability to index, recall, and apply said ideas when there’s product-market fit. This is more about organization and timing than it is ideation….but more on that later.

What is Open Innovation?

Open Innovation is a broad term used in the Information Age (now) to promote a mindset that runs counter to the secrecy and silo mentality of traditional research labs. The term was originally referred to as “a paradigm that assumes that firms can and should use external ideas as well as internal ideas, and internal and external paths to market, as the firms look to advance.” Until recently, this discussion was only happening in tech advancement.

See Henry Chesbrough and Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley.

Being that I love when new words are formed to make different impressions, I personally prefer this updated version, “A distributed innovation process based on purposively managed knowledge flows across organizational boundaries, using pecuniary and non-pecuniary mechanisms in line with the organization’s business model.” It’s not firm-centric, rather it also includes creative consumers and communities of user innovators.

What stands out about this updated version is by allowing open innovation to explore internal and external sources, it allows analysis at the inter-org, intra-org, extra-org, and at industrial, regional, and societal levels. The tool we’ve been working on starts to explore Open Innovation at the individual level (decision-makers, managers, and entrepreneurs on the human side and how decision-makers frame the choices at implementation.) After all, it still takes a human decision to make an idea work.

Companies such as Lego, GE, Phillips, Samsung, NASA, Apple, Google - all claim to use OI. They usually do it for a relatively short period as a ‘Program” associated with a project or team. If you have any examples of companies or organizations that built their structure around OI, please let us know.

Benefits of OI

• Improved Performance - Project Delivery

• Speed and Accuracy - Market Research

• Reduced Cost - R&D

• Customer Inclusion

• Digital Transformation

• Discovery of Emerging Models

• Internal / External Systems Synergy

• Interoperability / Composability / Persistence

Risks

• Leaks

• Loss of Competitive Advantage

• Increased Complexity

• Exposing Employee Acumen - Dunning-Kruger

• Patent/Trademark Exposure

While these risks are inherent, the proper system architecture can prevent some of the security issues. We hosted an OI workshop where none of the attendees knew the problem they were trying to solve…and never did. That’s part of the beauty of the diversity of minds that OI requires. Inclusion is a must. In traditional R&D, everything is shrouded in secrecy and reserved for the SME’s. I’m not making light of the risks at all - I’m simply stating that with the proper forethought and systems architecture, the security concerns can be addressed and engineered into the system(s).

Personally, I love the notion of Innovation Networks.

Ideas are social, by nature. They don’t consider human conditions like gender, race, preference, culture, politics, or autocracy. Ideas just are.

When put them in a network - they really come to life. We can assign provenance, discuss them, track their growth, incent, reward, and eventually develop. Because of the human interaction, they become exposed and ultimately investible.

Urgency

We can’t talk about innovation in any form without discussing control. The whole paradigm of closed innovation holds that successful innovation requires control. This concept stems from the early twentieth century when academic and government institutions were not involved in the commercial application of science. As a result, it was left up to corporations to take product development into their own hands. There wasn’t time to wait. This led to some massive breakthroughs, namely venture capital and a new category of mobile/skilled workers. It created a new market of knowledge.

This market of knowledge has been growing immensely.

Chris Dixon from a16z refers to this period as the read/write period of the internet. The research became available to read, and applications that allowed us to comment and frame thoughts on that research emerged. Our globally collective voice could now be heard. If secrets live in darkness, this was a massive flashlight.

We’re now moving into a new era. Some call it the Information Age or MisInformation Age. Whatever collective words we choose to describe it, there seems to be consensus around two pillars - regenerative (circular) processes and decentralized, open-source systems architecture. The underlying technology is now available in a way that wasn’t before. Through protocols and governance, we can assign provenance, provide recognition and incentives along the way, and put the proper consensus in place to do the ‘right’ thing. We can establish benefit and value beyond profit and return some of the high-value inputs back into the system. All of this, while creating, maintaining, and indexing the vital information required to continuously improve the idea.

Sounds too good to be true, right? Or maybe this very concept ☝🏼 came from a series of Open Innovation workshops across a diverse population over a longer period of time.

I wish I thought of that.

Parting Thought

AI will accelerate everything. That means it’s being measured as +Additive or xMultiplicative. Ideas are the seeds of innovation and I’m afraid we’re not being creative enough. The essence of our human design is our cognition. Self-awareness, spiritual curiosity, and philosophical musings among many other traits. We are ultra-social cooperators. Perhaps it’s time to put down some of the inherited industrialized tools and explore our next.

Let’s hear from Michael Tomasello in the Department of Psychology and Neuroscience at Duke University. The Inspiration Journey

Special thanks to:

Photo by Milada Vigerova on Unsplash

Here we go.

No, it’s not.

Listen, we’ve really only been abusing the planet for the last 150 years. I’m talking about punishing abuse…..changing earth science kind of stuff.

PFAS, Neonincontinoides, Monoculture, Mass Extraction.

These human practices and robotic processes are advancing beyond the pace of human thought.

Read Watchman’s Rattle

Wonder why you can’t ever get caught up? Wonder why you feel like everything is happening so fast? Feel like you are the center of your universe and the dependencies are dripping off you?

They are.

We’re disoriented and we can’t keep up with our thoughts.

I wrote about it here and here and also about Post Traumatic Growth and why here. If you’re a long-time reader, this isn’t new thought.

But we’re not improving. We’re not slowing down.

We live within the environment. We live within the climate. We live within our community.

We are part of the whole - not the whole itself.

So slowing is only the beginning.

After we slow, we have to stop.

Then we have to reverse.

We’re adding the equivalent of the built environment of Manhattan (in sqft) to the planet every MONTH. No greenwashing - no carbon conclusion - no discussion on green building.

Think about that. Manhattan monthly. Designed, delivered, and installed the way we’ve always done it to local code standards.

The scale of 8 billion people is hard to comprehend.

How about food production?

8 billion mouths.

1% of the population works in the food production industry.

.03% of the food production industry fully utilizes regenerative processes.

So only 24,000 people (who could almost fit inside Madison Square Garden) are direct practitioners of a circular food system? Source: D. Firth Griffith

Look - this isn’t about doom - this is about hope.

The planet has been here for 4.5B years Our industrialized practices have only been here for 150. I’m not suggesting we can (or should) slow human progress….I’m saying we should build the human in the loop where they provide the most THOUGHT value.

We need to engineer natural systems thinking into the margin. We need to be able to step back and think.

Slowing isn’t good enough. We need to slow, stop, and reverse.

Hope you get outside today. 🌳

Today’s song pairing is Nature by The Samples. Getting in touch with my 90’s self.

https://open.spotify.com/track/6OYjtwbTU2MkwERyOxsjGQ?si=0868aeb3ec614af6

A shout-out to Jen Theodore on Unsplash for the photo.

Here’s mine:

The foundation for sustainable living, where diverse perspectives converge to ensure a balanced, curious, thriving world.

The birth of words slowly continues.

I hosted an Environmental Literacy workshop last week with about 30 attendees. To get everyone thinking along the same lines, I broke down the words:

Environmental means relating to the natural world and the impact of human activity on its condition. Very relatable.

Literacy is the ability to read and write.

So environmental literacy is one’s ability to read and write about the natural world and the impact of human activity on its condition. It’s about so much more than trees and plastics.

To me, the environment is where we are at that moment in place, at that particular moment in time. It’s about social structure, community, experience, and the resources around us. It’s about living the life we have been given in a whole and complete way.

It’s about our awareness of what’s around us and how we embrace and treat others.

Professionally, I’ve always been intrigued with ESG models. I have worked on countless projects in the built environment that have achieved some form of LEED certification as defined by the US Green Building Council including BD+C (Building Design and Construction) ID+C (Interior Design and Construction) and to a lesser degree, O+M (Building Operations and Maintenance). It feels like a good start, but these are goals and certifications rather than objectives and performance. It’s hard to protect and enhance biodiversity and ecosystems and reduce our contribution to global climate change when you build a massive building. Especially when purchasing credits is an option to offset shortcomings.

Those are the words we know and use in ‘sustainable construction’.

So much is happening around us we simply don’t recognize. And those words fall woefully short. My discussion with Darren Murph this week suggests those words are in the ‘margin.’

There is an entire world of invisible energy exchange that we depend on for life: The carbon system, the hydrologic system, and photosynthesis. NASA breaks essential life support into 9 systems “Air Supply, Communication, Electricity, Food, Recreation, Temperature Control, Transportation, Waste Management, and Water Supply.”

Here are some novel, innovative words to consider:

Rewilding, Permaculture, Adaptive Reuse, Place Type, Attainable Sustainable, Indigenous Wisdom, Dynamic Agroforestry, Patient Capital, Renewable, Ecological Economics, Transition Investing, Phase Change.

These words are both compelling and extremely hopeful. That’s one of the many virtues of literacy - newfound meaning and a more profound understanding.

These systems are working with us. They are natural, persistent, and interoperable. They’re ubiquitous and omnipresent. They’re also fragile, finite, and sensitive for the human species.

We can find common ground.

Common ground on ESG models that allow the space for these discussions to happen from the S rather than the E or the G.

Common ground that we can be both pro-business and pro-planet at the same time.

Common ground that recognizes before we can sustain, we must understand how we consume.

Common ground that certifying performance trumps purchasing offsets.

Common ground in literacy…and acceptance of and support for curiosity.

If we choose the right words and use them at the right time to mean the right thing, we might just find ourselves in agreement.

I hope you get outside today. 🥾🌳

Today’s song pairing is Feel Us Shaking by The Samples.

https://open.spotify.com/track/4RGFQsCn8GVeV4eoslLRwI?si=c1c0a5de3fc44f74

Thank you Fuu J on Unsplash for the open-source image.

ReWork

As distributed work continues to take hold, our economy becomes increasingly exposed to globalism. The required connections are different. Chairs and desks have transitioned to screens and cameras. File cabinets are now file-sharing applications. Phones are video cameras. This system of hardware and software, all working together for a common goal - the workflow - is the backbone of Computer Science. A real, bonified science. Something we need to be teaching more - but that’s not what this piece is about.

The best systems feel good. This is also called human-centered design, the front end. Conversely, the ease of access to files, data, connection, and information is the datasphere. This is the back end. The seamless integration of the front end with the back end is like conducting a symphony. There’s art in rhythm. Rhythm is flow in the digital world. When you get there, you know it. That’s UX. It’s similar to a well-struck golf ball or a perfect tennis serve. You barely feel it because the mechanics and physics were all perfect.

The workplace symphony requires a highly persistent and interoperable platform. The interoperability and functionality of these productivity tools are essential. To make things more complicated, these systems are highly dependent on infrastructure. Look no further than the CrowdStrike outage this week that rendered millions of machines useless. It’s no surprise the very application designed to protect us infected us - at the kernel level. Viruses are viruses both IRL and digital.

Often it’s that which we can’t see that carries the highest dependency. You can’t see your connection to the internet. You can’t see your connection to electricity. Outside of the signal strength icon, we don’t monitor or record the quality of this connection. Yet when we’re disconnected, we’re immediately aware and the struggle becomes real.

ReTool

Taking care of our analog tools is easier than our digital ones. We are good at cleaning and organizing what we can see. Out with the clutter in our file cabinet and in with the new pens in the junk drawer. It’s not that simple on our VM’s.

Here’s an example. How many tabs do you have open right now? I’m writing, so my connection to the internet is off and I have one tab open. In this case, it’s a single browser tab with the Mirror dashboard. If researching or posting something on LinkedIn - a more general workflow - I would likely have two or three productivity tools open - like OneNote, Teams, Outlook, and probably 5 or 6 active page tabs in Edge. Since I have all the frequently visited sites in my collection tab, I can match what’s open with my ability to interact with it. I stay productive by assigning these tools to my real estate. In this case, it’s two 27” monitors. I split my right screen for comms - 50/50 between Teams and Outlook. My Teams status is currently set to ‘Busy’ so my coworkers know I’m head down. That screen also has my vidcam in case I get a video call. My left screen is dedicated to apps and the Edge browser. That’s a bit more of a fluid screen. I will shift back and forth and open and close tabs on the left screen more than my fixed communication screen. The left monitor is more fluid than the right. I’m considering adding a third screen to help with the amount of editing I’m doing these days. My ability to keep this straight is a learned behavior. I attribute it all to neuroplasticity - and nothing about was easy.

I compute from a Surface Pro. It’s connected to these screens with a Surface Dock. This also allows me to handwrite on the tablet should I choose to take notes during a call. As I continue to incorporate AI more and more into my workflow, I will need to consider investing in a new machine with a Neural Processor. I can see the benefits of NPU’s because they closely match human executive function - and I’m all about offloading my ‘tasks’ to the bots.

So what?

It’s about dependency. Building resilience into a complex system requires a deep understanding of infrastructure. From an organizational perspective, Orion Growth uses the 9 Pillars of Resilience by Dr. Stephen Sideroff. We also incorporate - 5 9’s, meaning we monitor our uptime and strive to have the same resilience measures of critical infrastructure like 911 centers. In any given year, our downtime goal is less than 5 minutes and 15 seconds. This uptime equates to 99.999% of the year. Since we can’t control our ISP connections, we have NAS drives that read/write simultaneously with our inbound/outbound to Azure. If there were a power event that renders one of our teammates offline, their work is still fully accessible. Text and cellular become the backup communication protocols. If the event that caused the disconnection is any more severe than that, work isn’t the problem. The event is.

There is no way this would be possible without Fiber to the Premises - FTTP. In rural locations, like The Retreat at Firefly Farm, where we rely on Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) service interruptions are far more frequent due to weather. While it’s far improved from the high satellite solutions of the early 2000’s, LEO still has frequent interruptions, generally amounting to more of a nuisance than a full-blown outage.

ReCalculate

There’s a huge difference between 99.999% and 96.5% - over 12 DAYS. Here’s the math behind it - thanks to GPT-4o:

365 days/year×24 hours/day×60 minutes/hour×60 seconds/minute=31,536,000 seconds/year

96.5% uptime means 3.5% downtime.

To find the downtime in seconds, we calculate 3.5% of the total number of seconds in a year:

31, 536, 000  seconds/year × 0.035

1,103,760 seconds/year 31,536,000 seconds/year×0.035=1,103,760 seconds/year

So, with 96.5% uptime, the downtime in a year would be 1,103,760 seconds.

To convert this into more understandable units:

Minutes: 1, 103,760  seconds ÷ 60

18,396 minutes 1,103,760 seconds÷60=18,396 minutes

18,396  minutes ÷ 60 = 306.6 hours

306.6  hours ÷ 24 = 12.775 days

So, 96.5% uptime in a year corresponds to approximately 1,103,760 seconds, which is about 18,396 minutes, 306.6 hours, or 12.775 days of downtime and that’s too much.

ReThink

As remote work normalizes, critical infrastructure will change from cars, roads, and bridges to computers, applications, and connectivity. Network nodes will require redundancy and dependencies and resilience will come into view. Some might argue it’s an issue of national security.

We will start to maintain what we can see.

Budgets will be increased as awareness increases. We’ll use CapEx for systems infrastructure and OpEx for maintaining these systems. We will teach each other new concepts like assigning screen space and using the most productive tools. New workflows will be suggested by AI. Some of the monotonous tasks will be relegated to our bots - freeing us for more time for creative thinking. I can imagine a time when I get paid to daydream. In fact, I’m building a business on it.

Critical infrastructure has had its awakening… it’s up to us to apply it to modern work. Nature might be our best guide.

Today’s music pairing - Under the Bridge, Red Hot Chili Peppers

https://open.spotify.com/track/3d9DChrdc6BOeFsbrZ3Is0?si=6e6259dd074943d9

Bullshit is a very technical term for an inaccurate prompt response. LLM’s are notorious bullshitters.

They use neural nets and training as their underlying mechanisms. Just like humans, they only know what they know. The problem arises when they don’t know, yet they have been built to possess the confidence of a trained ninja. They SOUND and LOOK like they know very well, but they’re a wolf in sheep’s clothing. That’s the precise moment they go from very smart to complete bullshit artists.

It’s also EXACTLY why they’re not ready to be products.

LLM’s are a tool that does an amazing job with languages. Masters of Verse. Wizards of Words. Kings of Koine. Connoisseurs of Code. They are programmed to think and learn. The problem remains - they simply haven’t learned enough, yet.

It’s okay when tools fail internally. That’s what we tinkerers are trying to do. We’re trying to apply the tools to our work that help us make it easier or more effective. LLM’s are prototype tools that are not ready for consumers. Yet profiteers will profit and products will launch….because of money.

Scammer, Shyster, Quack, Swindler, Hustler, Charlatan, Snake Oil Salesman.

They’re simply not ready for market - so don’t rush to buy the solution.

If you need more evidence - look at the Perplexity bullshit here. The Claude 3.5 Sonnet update was released this week and it appears to have promise. It’s simply too early to tell. Tools, not products.

Moving on

Have you made the distinction between Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Augmentation (IA)?

Artificial Intelligence: Refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think and learn. These machines can perform tasks that typically require human intelligence such as problem-solving, learning, understanding natural language, recognizing patterns, and making decisions.

Intelligence Augmentation: Focuses on enhancing human intelligence with the help of technology. It’s about creating systems that work alongside humans to improve their abilities and decision-making processes. IA aims to assist and augment human capabilities rather than replace them. It emphasizes collaboration between humans and machines, where technology supports human expertise and judgment.

We’re intentionally putting the open-innovation workshop at the center of the technology. Polaris, a tool from our partners over at Volum8, allows us to capture, organize, and rate your ideas. This is the essence of human-centric design and it at the core of what we’re doing at the cre8lab. The tech is not accessible until the workshop. We believe this is currently the best way forward.

There are a ton of cool examples of IA’s - Decision support systems, virtual assistants, data visualization tools, and collab software that helps professionals generate authentic, validated data so they can analyze it and put it to use more effectively.

A couple more thoughts

IA can be considered a subset of AI in some respects. It leverages AI technology to enhance humans. The primary distinction lies in the objective and the application.

AI focuses on creating autonomous systems that replicate human intelligence, while IA emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between mankind and machines. Right now, we are using the AI tools that help the IA tools become products that help us.

We could all use a little help.

For all those ‘start-ups’ and SME’s spouting about AI and making money and promises on the technology. Be careful.

The song pairing for this entry is brought to us from the year 2000 by They Might Be Giants:

https://open.spotify.com/track/5eLPCp9FLP4NGdu9pnTB4E?si=be4faa0823df4f7e

This has been an extraordinary week in technology.

It started off with Microsoft’s freshest launch of Places followed by their announcement of Copilot+PC. But it didn’t stop there. Yesterday, in conjunction with Khan Academy, they launched Khanmigo - a full-service tool focused on students and teachers. Oh, and it’s completely free for teachers in public schools in the US.

More evidence of human-centered design and workplace experience.

People

By putting technology at the center of the work, and making accessibility the number one priority, we change the paradigm of ‘tech’ as we know it. Until now, technology was perceived as something we bought to solve a particular problem. ‘There’s an app for that’ was the common response. This leads to overconsumption and ultimately, the collapse of structured data.

Platform

Tech stacks become top-heavy. Interoperability and persistence are compromised by stitching together API’s. The user experience becomes more and more complicated because we have to navigate pages and apps, sign in to multiple accounts, and manage settings throughout the ecosystem.

Some organizations will keep doing this. This is perilous, yet commonplace, but it’s current-state.

Causation

IT’s complicated as I wrote back in March. Seems the problem is rooted in IT - but it’s not their fault. IT’s historical charge was break/fix. They had layers of help depending on the severity or complexity of the issue. This leads to specialization, which if you read my work regularly, should be left to insects. By nature, these departments became solely focused on fixing the problem, closing out the ticket, and getting it done. So much so that automated help desks began tracking and scoring efficiency. Performance reviews were based on how many problems were solved without consideration of how many new problems were created. KPI’s weren’t calibrated to OKR’s.

As if this isn’t challenging enough, new technology solutions became a procurement function. This complicated simple transactions that were seemingly beneficial to efficiency and problem solving. “It doesn’t work with our system” and “we can’t let that behind our firewall” were short-form answers for far more complicated reasons. That complication has grown and the language barrier has become more and more obtuse. At this point, we’re just saying no, because I said so.

It’s time to say yes, and..

The best minds of tech are polymaths because they have the deepest breadth of complex systems thinking. The new team profile looks very different from the ‘old’ team profile and hiring practices haven’t caught up. It’s like having a starting 5 without a center - and the coach is being told by ownership it’ll be next year before they can address it. That team won’t compete well.

They may function. They may perform. But they won’t win.

Human-centered design and workplace experience start with each of us. We all have productivity tools we need to use. We all ingest information and respire data. That data trail is where the value is for the enterprise and we’re currently allowing third-parties to collect and distribute it. The way we work needs to be employee-centric. The productivity tools we give our employees need to be centralized tools that collect, index, and catalog the datastream. This is basic architecture and it’s essential to the future of work.

The closer user data can be in relation to each other, the better. Proximity counts. Vector relationships mean the difference between millions, maybe even tens of millions of dollars. Running queries and inferences will be like using electricity. The revenue model is based on utility and metering. Disorganized, disparate tech stacks will cost millions more to run - and even more to secure.

Eventually, executive leadership will want to use AI to solve problems - those problems live in the data we expel. That data needs to be stored in the most accessible, most autonomous, most organized database - a centralized system of record. This is the brain as it relates to the external environment through the central nervous system. These systems are akin to living, breathing systems - complete with executive functioning and maybe, reasoning. (we aren’t there yet) Here’s a good review of the basic function of the central nervous system and the brain.

Garbage in, garbage out

This is where we make the parallel between data and food. Not all data is created equal and not all food is healthy. Simple solutions like nutrition labels have helped us understand the benefits of viscous fiber and the warnings of complex carbohydrates and unhealthy sugars. Ingestion is a choice - digestion is a system function. If future leadership requires AI systems to ‘help’ they must be the expert nutritionists, the coaches in the game. They have to lead by example through knowledge and motivate through encouragement -- no Monday morning quarterbacks or armchair experts. Modern leadership is about creating a series of accountability partnerships and working together towards a common goal. It’s about creating team awareness for complex systems and placing the well-equipped and fully aware individual in the best position to succeed.

You can’t buy a win.

…but you can build a team that wins.

This is about building - so let’s stop buying.

Music pairing this week is Larry Groce - Junk Food Junkie 1979.

https://open.spotify.com/track/7FKjZakxaOMPLORVkfrAx7?si=7d27ae66e7fb42ad