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The numbers tell the story: A 37% gain over 23 weeks is an extraordinary move for such a broad, diversified index. By historical standards, we seem to be approaching a weekly peak that should mark the beginning of a natural declining phase.

Yet here's the paradox that has confounded many analysts (me included) over the past six weeks: predicting exact timing in this market has proven nearly impossible. The trend remains far too powerful to warrant serious concern about a modest 5-10% correction when it arrives.

What to Expect Next

Rather than attempting to time short trades or close long positions, the best approach is respecting this bull market's continued strength. When the inevitable pullback materializes, it will likely unfold rapidly over three to four weeks and conclude before most investors fully grasp what happened.

This correction should be viewed as opportunity, not threat. The logical sequence points toward a brief 3-4 week decline followed by another surge higher into Q4 and year-end. Despite near-term volatility, 2025 should finish on a strong note.

Gold's Bull Market: Still in Its Infancy

Shifting focus to precious metals reveals an equally compelling narrative. Gold continues its impressive run with substantial room for growth ahead. While certainly overbought on daily charts, this condition appears contained and manageable within the broader bullish context.

Here's a contrarian indicator worth noting: when market participants begin calling for tops, it typically signals more upside momentum ahead.

The monthly perspective is revealing. What seems to be parabolic move is actually relatively contained despite overbought readings. This represents a powerful bull market that has moved well beyond the confirmation phase.. yet we remain in the early innings of this bull market.

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Learning from History

Veterans of the last major precious metals bull market in the 2000s understand a critical lesson: avoid getting clever with these positions. The best strategy is to hold, because miners and silver can climb far longer than most experts suggest

Once you sell due to overbought fears, re-entering becomes psychologically and practically challenging. The current metals environment mirrors that earlier period, where the bull market had substantially more room to run. While pullbacks will occur, historical patterns show these dips were buying opportunities rather than exit signals.

Silver Breaks Free: The $50 Target

Silver appears to have entered a "runaway phase"—a technical term describing markets that experience violent pullbacks but maintain their overall upward trajectory.

Looking at silver's previous bull run from $4 to over $50 provides valuable context. That journey included massive pullbacks as normal market behavior.

If the current bull market began around $20, we've already reached the double point. I’m guessing the first major pullback will only happen near the $50 resistance level.

Taking some profit might make you look like a genius in the short term, but maintaining the majority position remains the wise approach for long-term gains.

Bitcoin: Patience Required

Bitcoin shows more uncertainty regarding whether a new weekly phase has started.

We may still witness a decline lasting several weeks before the next upward leg begins.

Key technical level: The 10-week moving average provides clearer insight into current positioning. While Bitcoin has breached this average, it hasn't had a decisive close above it. Bitcoin currently trades around $116,000 compared to the average at $115,143.

Timing Considerations

If the S&P 500 begins its expected decline, Bitcoin might initially follow suit. This timing means the first week of an S&P 500 correction could drive Bitcoin to a final weekly low before it begins outpacing traditional markets again.

Thanks for reading!

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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Skip the work - Copy my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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S&P 500: The Train Keeps Rolling

The S&P 500 just hit another all time high, matching the strength we saw back in March 2024. For the past few weeks, I kept thinking we were due for a pullback. But every time I expected a reversal, the trend just kept pushing higher. Fortunately, I stuck with my positions and didn't try to time the market. In bull markets, patience pays better than prediction.

We've got a Fed meeting coming up, and the market's basically betting on a quarter-point cut. Here's what I think: the market wants to hear that the Fed is considering two or three cuts this year. Anything less aggressive could trigger that pullback we've been waiting for.

Don't get me wrong - pullbacks happen even when they seem impossible. We're long overdue for one. But this is still a bull market, and I see no reason to change that view.

I believe the Fed will stay accommodating, and the current administration seems focused on supporting higher market prices.

I'm looking for a typical pullback that resets sentiment and clears the way for the next leg up. These resets are necessary to keep the trend sustainable.

The FOMC meeting often coincides with important turning points, so there's a chance the market doesn't interpret the next meeting as bullishly as needed. That could be the excuse for some selling and the mini-reset I've been expecting.

My strategy remains unchanged: stay fully allocated to equities. If we get a good pullback over three to four weeks, I'd actually consider buying more stocks on that decline. Otherwise, don't fight the bull market - hold strong and let the trend do the work.

Gold: The Bull Market That Keeps Giving

Now let's talk about gold, because this has been absolutely stellar.

I'm comfortable with my position, and this bull market just keeps delivering. Sure, it's overbought short-term, but it just broke out after months of consolidation.

That's exactly the kind of setup you want to see in bull markets. This is a major bull market that will see pullbacks but continues climbing month after month.

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I like to use the 2000-2011 bull market as a reference point. That ran for over a decade with only one major interruption during the financial crisis. Bull markets can go on for a very long time, and I don't think we're looking for a major top in precious metals until the end of this decade.

Silver and the Broader Metals Complex

Silver is making new highs and showing great strength. I think it's headed for $50 - possibly even this year in this current move. That's about a 20% gain, which silver can certainly handle.

We're at that point in the bull market where gold has confirmed its major uptrend, and now participants want additional exposure. They're buying silver, platinum, and palladium.

Speaking of which, both platinum and palladium are setting up nicely. Palladium especially looks ready to explode higher. These are worth having small positions in.

Bitcoin: Preparing for Launch

Bitcoin's four-year pattern shows we're about 34 months in, which is typically the range for major highs. But here's what's interesting - we haven't seen that classic bull market surge that usually precedes the peak. Previous runs always had that big final push to astronomical levels before topping out.

Since we haven't seen that explosive move yet, I think Bitcoin is preparing for one of those signature runs that crypto is famous for. The setup looks increasingly compelling.

Looking at the weekly chart, Bitcoin might see one quick pullback. The price action is right below the 10 week moving average - if it gets rejected here, we could see some weakness coinciding with a broader market pullback.

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What's particularly notable is how Bitcoin has been consolidating rather than crashing. In previous declines, we've seen much more dramatic volatility. The relative calm suggests institutional adoption and maturation of the market, which could actually support a more sustained move when it comes.

From a positioning standpoint, I'm maintaining full allocation here. The risk-reward setup looks compelling, especially if we're really building toward one of those classic crypto surges. The key is patience - these moves can take time to develop, but when they come, they tend to be substantial.

And when Bitcoin decides to make its move, it usually doesn't give much warning.

Yes, we'll see pullbacks and corrections along the way. But the bigger picture remains intact, and that's what matters most.

Thanks for reading

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PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?

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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Skip the work - Copy my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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The initial surge came on Friday's dismal jobs report, which showed the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August versus expectations of 75,000, while unemployment rose to 4.3% – the highest level since 2021. The report also revealed that June employment was revised to show a net loss for the first time since 2020, signaling the labor market has almost entirely ground to a standstill. This weak data suggests the Fed will need to respond aggressively and start cutting rates.

Monthly Structure and Long-Term View

Overall, the S&P500 looks to be in a strong bull market. I do have some concerns though when you examine the monthly view more closely.

It's been quite a while now since there was a multi-month bear market. The tariff-induced correction was a bit of an anomaly, and I don't think that's enough to call a major reset. It certainly helped drive this market higher, as you can see from these last five consecutive green candles.

The last real major decline was into the August-September 2022 lows, marking the last macro low for the S&P 500. This current bull phase is now getting pretty stretched from a multi-year perspective.

Looking Ahead to 2026

So in the back of my mind, even though we're in a massive secular bull market, I've started to feel a little concern about 2026. There's a lot of disruption in general from this administration. Not a critique on policy necessarily, but just change. Markets don't like a lot of change.

The AI impact, both good and bad, rates, inflation, weakening job data, and lack of new immigration from a supply perspective create many different factors. This market is very much overvalued overall.

Looking into 2026, I'm thinking this could be a shaky, rough year with a multi-month decline. There's a possibility of that, and we'll have to approach it when the time comes.

Strong Earnings Drive Continued Growth

Despite these worries, equity markets keep pushing higher, and earnings have actually been pretty strong. A couple of factors are at play here.

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First, productivity gains from AI mean companies don't need to hire as much anymore. While some companies like Salesforce are making significant cuts with their CEO recently confirming 4,000 job reductions due to AI efficiency, many others are simply not hiring to replace departing workers. This combination of targeted layoffs and natural workforce reduction is helping earnings and margins.

Second, we still have a decent inflation rate from a nominal perspective, which is boosting earnings on that front too.

Near-Term Market Expectations

I think in September, we're going to see that weekly decline, But a selloff can come quickly and sharply, then continue along its way.

This will be driven by a Fed that's probably going to shift substantially on policy. The initial enthusiasm from that will drive the market higher.

Often the Fed is behind the curve, and I think we'll maybe see some weakness and a reduction in growth forecasts that will impact the market because they're trading on such high multiples.

Gold as a Warning Signal

I also don't like the fact that gold seems to be a canary in the coal mine here. It's really strong and just broke out, but it's not a risk on move either. It feels more like a flight to safety, a hedge play overall.

The GLD ETFs and US based ETFs are not stacking gold bullion. This is being bought by the BRIC nations, billionaires, and central banks. So it's really a flight to safety overall, and that concerns me for the macro and economy.

This is a powerful move, almost a vertical move. I think you'll see pullbacks and sharp pullbacks at times, but the long term move is off to the races now.

Silver is also at new highs, a 12 or 13 year high. This is going to continue as we're seeing the gold silver ratio still come down, so silver's performing well alongside gold's strength.

Bitcoin: Leading the Correction

Bitcoin is actually telling a different story than equities right now, and it's worth paying attention to. While equity markets just made new all time highs, Bitcoin made its high back in mid August, almost four weeks ago now.

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So Bitcoin is already a couple of weeks ahead of the equity market top. I think it has more room to drop as it gets closer to its weekly decline low (yellow box).

But here's the interesting part: I think overall, once this current phase on the weekly timeframe ends toward the end of this month, Bitcoin is going to position itself for a big move. Probably a substantial move in its four year pattern.

My base view is that we could see a classic Bitcoin move in Q4 of this year. The foundation is being set now with this correction, and once it completes, I expect Bitcoin to potentially outperform most other assets in the final quarter.

This makes sense when you consider that Bitcoin often leads both on the way down and on the way up. Right now, it's showing us what's coming for the broader markets, but it should also lead the next major upward phase.

Portfolio Strategy

My portfolio remains fully allocated with core equity positions as the foundation. I recently trimmed some Ethereum to add to my gold and silver positions, while keeping some cash on the sidelines specifically for crypto opportunities. If we get that September dip I'm expecting, I'll be ready to deploy that cash into the crypto space.

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There's no reason to be concerned about an upcoming equity market decline. A 5%, 7%, or even 10% decline is going to be normal and not something you should react to from a positioning standpoint. Instead, I also consider loading up during the next weekly correction.

Thanks for reading.

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PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?

Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.

Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Skip the work - Copy my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

Book Portfolio Strategy Call

Connect with me on:

🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi

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The September Myth vs. Reality

Let's start with some hard facts. Bitcoin has seen five green Septembers out of 15 total – that's about a 33% success rate. Not great, sure. But here's what's wild: August is actually similar with also five wins out of 16 attempts now. Yet nobody talks about "Augtember" being terrible.

When September does go red, the average loss sits around 13% with a median of about 8%. On the flip side, winning Septembers average around 7% gains with a 5% median. These numbers give us some clear reference points for what might happen.

The Secret Behind September's Pattern

Here's where it gets really interesting – and why most people miss the real story. September has something special that only happens four times per year: quad witching.

Quad witching is when four major contract types expire simultaneously – options, futures, index options, and index futures. This creates massive liquidity and forces big institutional players to make portfolio adjustments. The key date? The third Friday of September, right around the middle of the month.

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The Mid-Month Magic

After studying the data carefully, something remarkable emerges. Bitcoin's September lows consistently happen around the middle of the month – whether it ends up being a positive or negative month overall. This is different from most other months where lows typically come early (bullish months) or late (bearish months).

But here's the kicker: measuring from September 15th to month-end, Bitcoin closes positively 80% of the time. That's 12 out of 15 historical Septembers showing gains in the back half.

The first half tells a different story – only 43% of those periods close green, heavily weighted toward negative performance.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

The average negative return for the first half of September is around 10-12% – pretty brutal. That would put Bitcoin in the low $100,000 range from current levels. But remember, even in positive-closing Septembers, we typically see about 5% downside from open to low.

For the back half rally periods, the average gain is about 4%. That might not sound like much, but at these price levels, we're talking about thousands of dollars in movement.

The Smart Play

Based on the historical patterns, the first half of September is about survival. If you're going to see weakness, it typically happens in the first two weeks. The real opportunity comes around mid-month if Bitcoin follows its historical pattern of bottoming then rallying into month-end.

This isn't about certainty – markets don't work that way. But the probabilities strongly favor weakness early and strength late. Understanding this pattern gives you an edge that most traders miss because they're too busy repeating surface-level talking points about "Septembear."

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The Bigger Picture Warning

The monthly chart is showing a bearish trade set-up. Bitcoin pushed above the May swing high but closed back below it with a bearish candle. This failed breakout suggests the market rejected those higher levels.

We could be looking at a multi-month corrective period with sideways and downward movement. Not a massive bear market, but potentially several months of choppy action that retests the 50 weekly moving average like we saw back in April.

What makes this more concerning is that it's happening during Bitcoin's natural declining phase, which could still run another few weeks. When technical breakdown combines with seasonal weakness, the moves tend to be more severe and longer-lasting.

Portfolio Adjustments

Given these dynamics, here's what changed in my portfolio over recent weeks:

My Smart Exit Decoder has been flashing oversold readings for Ethereum for several weeks now, so I've been gradually selling positions during that period. We managed to catch the move near the bottom, but the price chart looks due for a bigger pullback. I'm also expecting a rise in Bitcoin dominance, with money flowing out of ETH and back into BTC.

• This brought my cash position to around 10% for opportunities in both stocks and crypto

• Added precious metals as a hedge because gold's chart is screaming higher

• Planning to accumulate more Bitcoin around $100,000 and lower because I believe there's more room left in this cycle. We haven't seen real euphoria measured on-chain yet

• That's why I'm also ready to buy altcoins during major liquidation events, anticipating such euphoria phases that typically happen near cycle peaks

The key is staying flexible while respecting what the data actually shows. September isn't just "bad for Bitcoin" – it's a month with a very specific pattern that creates opportunities for those who understand it.

Thanks for reading

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PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?

Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.

Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Check out my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

Book Portfolio Strategy Call

Connect with me on:

🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi

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But here's what keeps me from turning bearish on the bigger picture: Bitcoin's position in the four-year cycle tells a completely different story.

The Current Decline Is Right on Schedule

Bitcoin hit a peak 3 weeks ago, and now it's tracking lower toward what should be the next higher low. It’s impossible to predict how low the price will go this time. In really bullish environments, the market has actually seen minimal declines where Bitcoin just moves sideways instead of dropping sharply. All the sellers who want out at these levels get absorbed, creating this equilibrium where price just chops around before the next move begins.

That's exactly why trying to time a sale here to buy back cheaper in mid-September is so risky. You could easily get left behind if Bitcoin decides to just grind sideways into September and then take off.

My approach is actually the opposite I'm looking to add to my Bitcoin position if it reaches the levels I'm watching. I've already added at $116k and $110k, and I'll be looking to add more at $106k and $100k if the market gives me those opportunities.

The Four-Year View Changes Everything

What keeps me patient through this weakness is simple: I don't see the signs of a major top that would mark the end of Bitcoin's four-year run. Not on the longer-term charts, definitely not on the monthly timeframes.

Sure, Bitcoin could have already peaked. No two cycles are ever identical. But this price action doesn't have that blow-off top feel that typically marks major highs. To me, that suggests the real speculative phase of this move still lies ahead.

If that's true, the explosive move comes after this current decline wraps up. Once Bitcoin puts in a solid bottom and confirms a new uptrend has started, I'm looking for a major move that could easily double from wherever it bottoms out.

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What the Numbers Could Look Like

Let me throw some potential targets at you. Say Bitcoin bottoms around $105k in September. A doubling from there puts it at $210k. That's not a prediction, but it's what the historical rhythm suggests when you combine cycle timing with a proper speculative blow-off.

Looking at monthly charts, a push to $200k would create that classic parabolic look Bitcoin has shown at previous major tops. Picture those big green monthly bars in November or December that just scream "this is the peak."

The Make-or-Break Level

Once Bitcoin forms that September low and confirms the new weekly uptrend, that bottom becomes the critical support. This deep into a four-year run, you shouldn't see price break back below a confirmed major low. These moves should build comfortably above previous bottoms.

If Bitcoin does break back below say, in late October or November that would signal major trouble. The market would be 35 months into the four-year pattern, which is typically peak timing, yet it would be breaking key support. That scenario would probably mean Bitcoin already saw its high.

Only Two Paths Forward

I think Bitcoin is at a point where only two scenarios really make sense. Either it's already in some kind of distribution pattern and has peaked, or it's about to start the explosive final phase of this four-year move.

There's not much middle ground here given the cycle timing. Traders are either getting defensive on whatever comes next, or they're preparing for a major blow-off into the November-December window.

Why August and September Always Feel Rough

Here's some context that supports what the market is showing: August is always the slowest month for risk assets. Everyone's on vacation, volume dries up, and volatility gets crushed. It creates pretty terrible conditions across the board.

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September is when the big players come back to their desks, and they usually start by cleaning house. They dump underperformers, rebalance for tax reasons, and prepare for year-end moves. This creates choppy, bearish conditions almost every single year.

This seasonal backdrop fits perfectly with the declining phase I'm tracking in Bitcoin and crypto overall.

Current Positioning Makes Sense

Given all this, I'm keeping allocations fairly balanced across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with smaller positions in XRP and TRON. The focus is on the assets showing the strongest technical patterns rather than spreading too thin.

If there are any coins I'd like to add more of, it's LINK and SOL. Both are showing strength against Bitcoin and might become outperformers during the next run.

The Bottom Line: Stay Patient

Bitcoin is in what should be the speculative heart of the four-year pattern, even though it sure doesn't feel like it right now. This declining phase is completely normal after an 18-week run from around $74k.
That's a solid 60%+ gain that needs to be digested.

Once this decline completes and Bitcoin confirms the next uptrend is starting, that's when things could get really interesting. The setup for a doubling move into year-end is definitely there, but it all comes down to how this pullback plays out and where Bitcoin puts in that crucial bottom.

The key is not getting shaken out during what's likely just a normal, healthy pullback in a much larger bullish story.

Thanks for reading!

PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?

Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.

Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Check out my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

Book Portfolio Strategy Call

Connect with me on:

🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi

🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop

⬛ X: @timoassi

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Here's what matters: We're nearing the end of the 4-year cycle that has historically ended with a parabolic phase. Treasury companies are aggressively buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. Regulatory clarity is improving. The infrastructure is maturing. Short-term noise can't change these fundamental shifts.

Bitcoin's Technical Reality Check

Bitcoin's 30-weekly cycle shows a clear declining pattern after hitting a definitive peak around week 18. We're now in week 20, hitting new lows below July's breakout level, which validates that we're in a correction phase.

But here's the key: This is normal, healthy action within a larger bullish structure.

Since there is still a lot time left in the current 30-week cycle, my target sits around 100,000, only 10% below current levels.

We've already seen a -12% in 12 days. Markets can move fast in both directions. The question isn't if we'll see volatility, but whether you'll be positioned when it reverses.

The Altcoin Resilience Test is Just Beginning

Something remarkable happened recently. Bitcoin dropped 11-12% over two weeks, yet Bitcoin dominance also fell initially. However, we're now at a critical inflection point where dominance could bounce, especially if Bitcoin continues its weakness.

We've been positioned in Ethereum since spotting the reversal on the ETH/BTC chart, but expect some profit-taking rotation back into Bitcoin as traders seek relative value. This short-term dynamic is exactly why we've been slowly adding more Bitcoin on these dips.

The Real Test Lies Ahead

Here's what really matters: How will altcoins respond when Bitcoin drops further? The recent period showed initial strength, but the true test of altcoin resilience is still coming.

Check the charts of top-tier altcoins like Solana, XRP, LINK... So far, they haven't broken down against Bitcoin and are building bases with relative strength. But if they can maintain or even improve these levels during deeper Bitcoin weakness, that's the signal institutional rotation is real. Altcoins that hold their ground during Bitcoin's next leg down will be the ones ready to lead the following phase.

This isn't about catching every altcoin that pumps. It's about identifying which proven performers with institutional backing and strong technical setups can weather Bitcoin storms and emerge stronger.

The real opportunity reveals itself when we see which assets pass this resilience test.

Every week, I cut through the noise with my Top Altcoin Playbook, built on one non-negotiable rule: only assets in clear uptrends make the list.

The system is ruthless in its simplicity. Altcoins that maintain momentum earn their spot. Those showing weakness get cut. No hesitation, no emotional attachment, no second chances.

In volatile markets, discipline beats hope every time.

The Bigger Picture Stays Bullish

Despite short-term choppiness, the macro outlook couldn't be stronger. This market phase has delivered unprecedented institutional adoption and regulatory progress. The setup demands a major upside explosion.

The monthly chart reveals we haven't reached the typical price extension that marks major tops. Previous peaks showed clear parabolic rises at each macro high. We're nowhere near that level, seeing only a typical stairstep pattern that keeps the price rise sustainable without the blow-off top.

The fuel for a massive parabolic move higher is still building, waiting for the right catalyst to ignite the final phase.

Don't Let Perfect Be the Enemy of Profitable

Trying to sidestep every 10% correction is a losing strategy. Bull markets punish over-trading and reward patience. Expected drops often don't materialize, and prices gap higher without offering re-entry opportunities.

We've seen this pattern repeatedly in recent months. Anticipated weakness either fails to develop or proves much smaller than feared. Getting caught under-allocated when momentum returns costs more than riding through temporary volatility.

That's why I scale into positions at different price levels. I've already bought Bitcoin at 110K and plan to add more at 100K or even lower if we get there.

The goal isn't timing every fluctuation but being ready for the next major expansion.

In bull markets, the biggest risk isn't losing money on temporary weakness. It's missing the move that defines the entire phase by being under-positioned when momentum returns.

Thanks for reading.

PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?

Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.

Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Check out my portfolio

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Book Portfolio Strategy Call

Connect with me on:

🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi

🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop

⬛ X: @timoassi

📧 timothy@panicdrop.com

🟩 Panic Drop Podcast : on your favorite streaming app

www.panicdrop.com

Instead, we got something completely different.

The Surprise That Changed Everything

Powell didn't just soften his stance on inflation. He practically swept that 2% target under the rug. This isn't subtle Fed-speak anymore. This is a fundamental change in how they're approaching monetary policy.

Here's why this matters: Jackson Hole speeches don't just move markets for a few days. They set the tone for months ahead. And what we heard today was the most crypto-friendly Fed rhetoric we've seen in years.

Where We Stand in the Cycle

Looking at the current market structure, we're still in what appears to be a declining phase of the 30-week cycle pattern. We saw natural pullback after recent gains, which is completely normal. Bitcoin dropped about 10% from recent highs, putting us in typical shakeout territory.

But here's what's interesting: even as Bitcoin pulled back, dominance actually dropped further. This tells us altcoins are holding their ground remarkably well. When the leading crypto falls 10% and altcoins don't collapse alongside it, that's a strong signal we're in a mature phase of the bull market.

Ethereum's Standout Performance

Ethereum has been the clear winner recently. While Bitcoin struggled, ETH has already recovered its losses and continues making new highs against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC chart is painting a picture of sustained outperformance that we haven't seen since the last major run.

This isn't just technical momentum. Major treasury companies are actively moving into Ethereum, providing real fundamental support behind the price action. When you see this kind of institutional adoption combined with strong technical patterns, it creates a powerful combination.

The Final Phase Setup

We're at month 33 of what has been a very consistent four-year pattern for Bitcoin. The only element missing from this cycle compared to previous ones is the final acceleration phase that typically characterizes the end of these longer-term patterns.

Looking at historical precedent, whether it was the 2013-2014 cycle or the 2020-2021 run, they all featured significant final moves higher before completion. The current setup suggests we're approaching that phase now.

Risk Management in Late Cycle Markets

Yes, we could see further downside. Previous drops have shown 20% declines are possible even in strong bull markets. But the key is not losing your position over short-term volatility when the bigger picture remains so constructive.

We haven't seen a major green monthly candle since November or December of last year. That kind of consolidation, followed by institutional rhetoric shifts like we heard from Jackson Hole, often precedes the final acceleration phase.

The biggest risk at this stage isn't missing a 10-15% decline. It's losing your position and then being afraid to re-enter as prices move higher. Late in these cycles, pullbacks often don't provide the extended buying opportunities that earlier phases offered.

This doesn't mean ignoring risk management, but rather understanding that the risk/reward calculation changes as cycles mature. The potential for significant upside moves often outweighs the probability of extended downside.

Remember that the most significant moves in these cycles often come when sentiment feels most uncertain. That uncertainty creates the fuel for the final acceleration phase that has characterized every previous four-year pattern.

Thanks for reading.

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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

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Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

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