Why do individuals make excessive positive judgements about their own capabilities? Scholars have proposed two interpretations: the first is based on motivational bias, self-confidence and psychological benefits for themselves, such as excessive self-confidence that enhances people’s self-esteem; and the second emphasizes that the cognitive process may sometimes result in direct bias.

Excessive self-confidence is one of the most solid individual biases.

If one say that he knows the correct answer to a question, what is the answer he provides is wrong? Studies have shown that people are often overstated with real knowledge of things. When people say it is correct in 70 per cent, it is probably only 60 per cent; when people say it is 90 per cent, it is probably only 70 per cent. This overestimation of the accuracy of the judgement of the event is referred to as excessive self-confidence (Over confidence). In the process of equity investment, the more profitable the investor would like to continue to sell. Surprisingly, the more they are, they remain willing to operate repeatedly. Why? Because of their general feeling that “I am at a higher level than others, especially at a higher level than our peers”.

The concept of excessive self-confidence stems from psychological research in the 1960s. Since the 1970s, excessive self-confidence has become a subject of widespread concern in the field of psychology. These studies are now widely used in financial, investment and management.

The clinical psychologist, Oskamp Oskamp, gave a statement in 1965 in his clinical judgement analysis of psychology on “excessive self-confidence”: excessive self-confidence beyond precision. He believed that self-confidence was accompanied by an increase in the valuation of his mandate. Since then, scholars have defined excessive self-confidence as the belief that their knowledge is more accurate than in fact, that the powers given to their own information are more de facto. Thus, in the psychology study, excessive self-confidence is generally considered to be a calibration error and a typical cognitive bias.

The increase in the availability of information would strengthen over-self-confidence and, with the increase in the volume of information, the level of self-confidence for the accuracy of their own judgements had increased rapidly, but the actual level of judgement accuracy of those individuals had not increased accordingly. American scholars have done a study in which eight occupational horse decisions were selected as being tried, each with a wide range of 100 pieces of information on its own, allowing the eight occupational horse decisions to select a few pieces of information at random, with corresponding selection of 5, 10, 20 and 40 articles, and then to predict which would win. Finally, with the increase in the number of selected information on the Same, the level of self-confidence has increased accordingly, and the final results of the Semama show that the accuracy of the judgement on the success of the successful conclusion has not increased as the number of information increases.

The difficulty of making decisions would also enhance overconfidence. The experiment found that the more difficult the people felt self-confidence, but rather less self-confidence on more simple issues. For example, the experiment requires participants to extract red balls from one tank. The difficulty of the problem is divided into three levels: 50 per cent of the probability of red ball in pumps in the “vulnerable” level; 45 per cent of the probability of red balls in the “hard” hierarchy; and 40 per cent of the probability of a pumping of red balls in the “unusable” hierarchy. As a result, the average accuracy rate of the pilot participants was 85 per cent in the “comprehensible” hierarchy and was not self-confidence tested in most of the confidence districts; in the “difficult” level, the average accuracy rate of the pilot participants was 61 per cent and excessive self-confidence was shown in all confidence-building zones; and in the “is unlikely” hierarchy, they displayed extreme overconfidence among all believers. Scholars have analysed that the causes of this phenomenon are related to the effects of stereotyping. When the problem is simpler, people tend to be self-confidence, and as the complexity of the problem increases, people gradually adjust their level of self-confidence, but the extent of the adjustment is smaller than the difficulty of the problem, thus creating a tendency for overconfidence.

Excessive self-confidence exists widely in work and life. Practitioners in such industries as psychologists, doctors, nurses, investment bankers, engineers, entrepreneurs, lawyers, negotiators, managers, etc. all have a tendency to be overly self-confided. When events are less detectable, experts are often more vulnerable to overconfidence than the general population. Overly optimistic about future performance of companies, thus underestimating risks, is a widespread behavioural tendency among corporate management. Scholar studies have shown that managers, as a special group, are more likely to be optimistic than ordinary people, and that the more senior managers of positions, the greater the tendency to overconfidence is evident. A survey of some United States entrepreneurs found that entrepreneurs generally overestimated the likelihood of successful start-ups of their own businesses and underestimated the potential for failure of their own businesses, while firmly convinced that their level of entrepreneurship is far higher than that of their competitors. Assuming that one manager has two secretaries, the quality of me is particularly good, particularly in the light of what is happening very well and what has never been felt as wrong. The quality of B is generally not known, but it is often counterproductive. What are the preferences of managers? Option A, the possibility of giving rise to the problem is greater than that of “no one’s own asymmetries”, and in fact no one can guarantee that it will be correct at all times and that there will often be very big differences if managers are particularly convinced of this conviction.

Why do individuals make excessive positive judgements about their own capabilities? Scholars have proposed two interpretations: the first is based on motivational bias, self-confidence and psychological benefits for themselves, such as excessive self-confidence that enhances people’s self-esteem; and the second emphasizes that the cognitive process may sometimes result in direct bias. Generally speaking, people do not accurately assess their own capacity or lack the capacity to understand their own incompetence, and success stories, compared to failures, are more likely to give rise to self-confidence, such as excessive self-confidence, which in turn reinforces the desire for success. By expecting their own behaviour to succeed, people attribute success to their own capacity and blame the failure for bad gas. This is also why people can draw attention to over-evaluating when making decisions.

The development scale of the three major operators in Zhejiang is not small, especially Zhejiang Mobile. In recent years, the performance development of Zhejiang Unicom has made great progress, and the development pressure of Zhejiang Telecom is not small. This time, the operator caijing.com tried to introduce the background of the general managers of the local branches of operators in many second tier cities in the province, including Xu Guorong, general manager of Jiaxing Unicom, song Bo, general manager of Taizhou Telecom, and Wu Wentao, general manager of Jinhua Unicom, who have strong ability and great potential.

Xu Guorong, general manager of Jiaxing Unicom, has been in office for more than six years. He was general manager of Jinhua Unicom nine years ago

In recent years, the development of Zhejiang Unicom has shown a state of rapid development, while the local Jiaxing City has also developed rapidly in Zhejiang Province due to its economic growth and economic aggregate. Coupled with its high popularity, the development of Jiaxing Unicom is naturally deeply valued. The operation of shancaijing.com tries to sort out the development status of Jiaxing Unicom in Zhejiang Unicom and reveal the working background of Xu Guorong, general manager of the company.

The strength of Zhejiang Unicom is obvious to all, which is naturally inseparable from the performance contribution of many local and municipal branches. Jiaxing has been the latecomer in recent years. In 2019, it began to surpass Taizhou and is closer and closer to Shaoxing, becoming the fourth largest economy in Zhejiang Province.

With such a large economic volume, the development of Jiaxing Unicom will not be bad. When it comes to Jiaxing Unicom, it is natural to mention Xu Guorong, the general manager of the company. He has been deeply rooted in the local area for many years, witnessing and participating in the rise and development of the company.

According to the data, Xu Guorong served as the assistant general manager of Jiaxing Unicom as early as 2007, and then served as the deputy general manager of Jiaxing Unicom. During 2012, he was officially promoted to the head of local branches and general manager of Jinhua Unicom. During his tenure, he played a positive leadership role in Jinhua’s local 4G network construction.

Since then, after 2015, Xu Guorong has been transferred back to Jiaxing Unicom for six years.

During this period, he led Jiaxing Unicom to make outstanding achievements in digital reform, accelerated the application of 5g technology in industrial Internet, smart Park, smart fire protection and smart medical treatment, and actively promoted the integration of 5g into thousands of industries, which has become a model of digital reform in Jiaxing.

The general manager of Taizhou Telecom just adjusted this year, and song Bo, the former general manager of Zhejiang telecom marketing department, took over

In recent years, Zhejiang Telecom is constantly seeking a breakthrough, and its local branches are naturally constantly adjusting. According to the industrial and commercial registration information displayed by the enterprise investigation, the person in charge of Taizhou Telecom, a city with the highest economic development, was also replaced at the beginning of this year, and song Bo, the former general manager of Zhejiang telecom marketing department, was appointed. The operator caijing.com tried to sort out his working background.

According to the data, song Bo was the deputy general manager of the government enterprise customer department of Sichuan Telecom in his early years. Since then, he has been transferred to the general manager of Hangzhou telecom channel department at least in 2015. A few years later, he was promoted to the general manager of Zhejiang Telecom Marketing Department.

In the early stage of 5g development, as the general manager of the company’s marketing department, he attended the launching ceremony of 5g friendly customer experience activity held in Hangzhou and delivered a speech, introducing various applications of 5g in the industry and people’s life.

From his early work experience, it can be seen that he should be particularly good at the field of marketing. From government and enterprises to channels and then to the market, all provide strong support for his future management.

No wonder he was able to fully lead the company’s development after taking office as the general manager of Taizhou Telecom. He also said that Taizhou Telecom has always focused on industrial digitization and digital industrialization, enabled industrial transformation and upgrading, and made every effort to help Taizhou become a “wind vane” for the development of private economy in Zhejiang and even the whole country.

Taizhou is an important city with great development potential in Zhejiang Province. In the first half of this year, its total economic output was 272.3 billion yuan, continuing to maintain the sixth position in the province; In terms of population size, its permanent resident population is more than 6.6 million, ranking fourth in Zhejiang, second only to Hangzhou, Wenzhou and Ningbo, which also means that song Bo has a lot of development space in the future.

Wu Wentao, general manager of Jinhua Unicom, has been in office for two years. Previously, he served as general manager of the Sales Department of the provincial company

Jinhua is located in the middle of Zhejiang Province. It is an important transportation hub in the south of the Yangtze River. It is known as the heart of Zhejiang. The county-level city below Jinhua is famous for its small commodities in Yiwu, the ham in Dongyang and Hengdian film and television city. It is known as the capital of small commodities, the capital of ham and the capital of film and television. This time, the operator caijing.com tried to sort out the development status of Jinhua Unicom and introduce the background of current general manager Wu Wentao.

It is understood that Wu Wentao graduated from the computer major of Hangzhou University of Electronic Science and technology. In his early years, he should have been growing up in Zhejiang Unicom. He was transferred to the general manager of Jinhua Unicom in 2019. Before that, he was actually the general manager of the Sales Department of Zhejiang Unicom and began to serve as it in 2016 at least. It can be seen that he has rich market experience.

In recent years, the performance of Zhejiang Unicom has developed rapidly, among which the market business is one of the main sources of performance growth, among which Wu Wentao has also contributed a lot. It can be seen that the general manager of Jinhua Branch of China Unicom in Zhejiang attaches great importance to the development of China Unicom.

The economic development of Jinhua has ranked among the top seven in Zhejiang Province in recent years, with a total population of about 5.56 million. Now Jinhua and Yiwu form the Jinyi metropolitan area. In the future, it will strengthen economic ties with Quzhou, Lishui and other places, and will also radiate and drive the development of Jiangxi and other central regions. Therefore, Jinhua Unicom has great development potential in the future.

After taking office, Wu Wentao combined with the company’s network and technical advantages and signed strategic cooperation agreements with many local school enterprises, government and enterprise customers, which also further promoted the development of the company’s performance.

The three major U.S. telecom operators have spent more than $100 billion on 5g spectrum and network upgrading, but they have little revenue or major new businesses to show. In addition, the arrival of this technology has not attracted the attention of consumers to a large extent, and the future wealth expected by the telecommunications industry is far from certain. “There is no immediate return,” said Tammy Parker, an analyst at GlobalData

From the beginning, this technology faced challenges. For example, at & T once confused 4G with “5g e”. Conspiracy theorists label 5g as a source of harmful radiation and a transmitter of coronavirus. Recently, American Airlines complained that some 5g spectrum may interfere with radar and endanger aviation safety. So far, the biggest blow to 5g is that it has always been an ordinary event. Moreover, when 5g comes into full play, large technology companies, including Amazon, Microsoft and Google, may have defeated wireless service operators in the kind of applications that require a lot of data expected to emerge from ultra-high-speed 5g networks.

The higher speed and larger capacity of 5g can be used to meet the growing demand for services such as HD video streaming. However, the key improvement of 5g is the network response time, that is, low latency. This is almost invisible to consumers, except in the use case of highly competitive video game competition.

Due to the lack of convincing reasons to convince customers to upgrade, telecom operators have been providing $1000 5g mobile phones for free to help start the conversion process. According to a survey by Roger Entner of Recon analytics, such activities are necessary because 5g is not even among the four reasons why people change telecom operators. These reasons usually include service price and overall network reliability.

“My friend asked me, ‘why should I buy a 5g mobile phone’?” Said Chris sambar, executive vice president of technology operations at & T. “In order to avoid argument, I don’t object, but if you look back, 4G is the same. It’s only a few years later that the use cases begin to be implemented.”

One area where 5g has achieved initial success is the provision of wireless home broadband services. With the accelerated construction of 5g medium band network, customers are looking for wireless alternatives to fixed network providers. But this threat to cable companies is likely to trigger a price war, as cable operators will respond by offering their own cheaper mobile phone services.

Things shouldn’t be like this. Operators launch 5g to bring (let people send out) “wow” experience to users, and users are willing to pay extra for this experience. On the contrary, this technology has become a standard feature in areas where mobile operators and cable operators are competing through similar packages. As this reality began to emerge, operators pointed out greater and more direct opportunities, such as selling 5g to large companies and governments. “Not long ago, we found that it was clear that the most compelling use cases of 5g would be around enterprises rather than consumers,” said Tammy Parker, an analyst at GlobalData

In order to achieve this goal, major telecom operators have established partnerships with the so-called webscaler. These large cloud service providers include Amazon AWS, Microsoft azure, Google and meta platforms that handle data storage, online ordering and video streaming for large companies. Each cloud giant sees 5g as a valuable entry into new categories of services, such as secure private networks that replace WiFi, factory automation and edge computing, so as to bring network hardware closer to end users to improve speed.

Wireless operators are betting their future on these workplaces. However, since no 5g super connected and cloud driven business system has been established before, technology giants and telecom companies are working together to meet this challenge.

Although new partnerships are still being announced and large 5g projects are entering the planning stage, executives of these wireless companies say they are confident of playing a role in the future information technology infrastructure. Tami Erwin, director of business services for Verizon communications, said: “I am proud to be the only operator in the world that has cooperation agreements with the three major webscalers. We are creating a platform for the real acceleration of the implementation of metauniverse.”

As 4G shows, operators can create a more powerful network, but other companies such as Uber, Netflix and Facebook make a lot of money through these network connections. 5g will expand its share of the cake again, but the share that operators can share is uncertain - which is bad news because they spent $118.4 billion on 5g wireless spectrum auction, almost twice the $61.8 billion they paid for 4G spectrum.

Neville ray, President of T-Mobile US technology, said that while the technology giants are sorting out, T-Mobile plans to focus on its core network strength. “Facebook, apple, Microsoft, Google - all these big companies are investing heavily in this area, and their demand for mobile networks is unprecedented.” He said. “They will need network capabilities, and they have no intention to build them at all.”

This has led a group of potential competitors to work together to build a collective business model. “We have a good relationship with Microsoft.” Chris Samb, executive vice president of technology operations at & T

Ms. Chen lives in Wenjin garden of Zhongda in the west of the city. She belongs to the school district room. Next door is Xuejun primary school. There are many students in the community.

At about 11 a.m., the reporter came to Wenjin garden of CUHK. From qiuzhinong into the community, there are 14 buildings and 10 buildings on both sides of the entrance and exit. The two buildings are about 20 meters apart. The owner with “bullet holes” on the window glass lives on the second floor of 10 buildings.

Female business owners found bullet holes in their study

When I went up, the first time I knocked on the door, there was no one at home. I walked around the community. When I knocked again, the door opened. The female owner said that she had just returned.

The female owner said that the window hit by the “bullet hole” was to the north, in his son’s study. Inside the window was the child’s desk.

In other words, if the child was sitting in front of the desk, facing the window, and the bullet hole broke through the glass, the child was likely to be injured.

Fortunately, their family doesn’t live here often.

“We seldom live here. We just came here on the evening of February 24. On the morning of February 25, when I cleaned my son’s room, I found ‘bullet holes’ on the window glass. The last time we came back was before and after the Lantern Festival.”

“My son was a freshman in senior high school. Every time he came back to his home here, he would read in front of his desk. He wasn’t there on the day of the incident.” According to Ms. Sai’s description, the glass hit by the “bullet” had cracks around it, the diameter of the bullet hole was about 2 cm, and the thickness of the glass was 6 mm, so the strength should be not small. No one knows when the glass was hit.

The north direction of building 10, wenjinyuan, CUHK, is the entrance and exit of the community. The flow of people is relatively dense. After the reporter counted, there are at least 10 surrounding monitors.

In the morning, I heard from the security guard of the community that this area is the place with the most monitoring layout in the community, but I still didn’t seem to find who hit the “bullet hole”.

The security guard said that on the day the bullet hole was found, the female owner’s sister called the police.

At noon, the reporter verified to the police that there was indeed this police situation, which is still under investigation.

Owners in the same community encountered similar situations last month

According to the property of wenjinyuan of CUHK, this is not the first time that a similar situation has occurred in their community.

Last month, on the 10th floor of 13 buildings, there were “bullet holes” on the glass of the owner’s home, which were similar in shape and size to those on the window of the female owner’s home this time.

So, who did it? Community owners are also discussing.

He took photos of “bullet holes” on the glass of two families, 10 and 13, and carefully compared them downstairs.

“The size is the same, but the trajectory of the ‘trajectory’ is different, and the stress surfaces of the two ‘bullet holes’ on the glass are also different. The 10 buildings seem to be hit at the same level, and the 13 buildings seem to be hit from below.”

The owner said that from the stress surface of the “bullet hole”, this seems to be the case, but it is not clear whether it is a “bullet hole”.

“It may also be a toy gun such as a water bullet gun played by children, or a slingshot. It’s hard to judge what to use. Since the police are involved, they should find out.”

Manager Chen of the community property also said that there are many children in their community. Indeed, many children play with water bullets and guns.

“We’ve seen this kind of water bullet gun, but the ‘bullet’ inside is very soft, it’s unlikely to have such a big impact, and it’s not realistic to shoot to the 10th floor.”

After the incident, the community, property and industry committee where the community is located posted a safety reminder in the corridor elevator, saying that the “bullet hole” on the glass may be artificially broken, which is very harmful, and the police are already under investigation.

“We hope the owners can check themselves and remind their children not to play with imitation guns.” Manager Chen said.

Community staff also said that in addition to posting safety reminders in the corridors, the community has also arranged personnel to strengthen patrols.

Before the marble shot through the glass, it often happened in Hangzhou

In 2017, 14 pieces of glass of 13 owners were broken down in Xianlin Feicuicheng community. The investigation found that it may also be caused by steel ball slingshot.

In 2018, the Express reported that in Xiaoshan Linpu Xiangge Mingyuan community, the windows or home windows of more than 20 owners were attacked and broken, leaving suspected “bullet hole” marks on the glass, and the vehicles were damaged at night. After six days of squatting all night, the police found Peng and Yan, the property in front of the community. Originally, the other party set up a property company and wanted to settle in the community, but failed to win the bid. Peng, together with Yan, chose a hidden corner to destroy by virtue of his familiarity with the community. They were finally criminally detained.

In July 2019, a round hole was punched through the double glass of a family on the 6th floor of a community in Caihe. After investigation, the police found the 47 year old man Xie Moumou. Xie likes to play slingshot. On a whim, he fired several shots at the window of the next community. Finally, he was administratively detained for five days for making trouble, and the slingshot and steel balls were confiscated.

In January 2021, there was a small round hole in the double-layer tempered glass in the owner’s bathroom in Jiangyue community, West Lake District. According to the preliminary judgment of the police from the glass fragmentation, it should be caused by the shooting of steel ball bullets.

Orange persimmon interaction · City Express reporter Dong Lvping