2024年6月，中国两个最发达文明的地区之一——长三角地区，江苏苏州发生日本母子等人遭袭击案，中国女性胡友平挡刀而不幸去世；同年9月，中国另一个最发达文明的地区之一——珠三角地区，深圳市发生了一起日本人学校男童（当时10岁）被刺身亡的事件。

据多家媒体报道，2025年1月23日、24日，两地中院连续宣判，两案罪犯均以故意杀人罪被判处死刑。其中，深圳案判死刑立即执行。

据媒体报道，苏州市中级人民法院（地方法院）1月23日对因故意杀人罪被起诉的无业男子周家胜（音译 / 52岁）作出死刑判决，符合检方的求刑。

中国实行两审终审制，上述为一审宣判。日本官员称，尚未收到被告提出上诉的消息。

消息提及法院认为，“本案是因债务压力而对生活绝望，被告袭击了包括儿童在内的3人，行为极其恶劣。”法院指出，“此案的社会影响极其严重，判处极刑符合要求。”

据报道，法院星期四约上午10时开庭，约10分钟后结束。日本驻上海总领事等获准旁听宣判。

报道引述日本官员称，一对日本母子案发时在车站等候日本人学校的校车，结果被无业的周家胜持刀袭击受伤。在周加胜行凶的过程中，54岁的女校车引导员胡友平试图阻止被告行凶，但被凶手刺伤后经抢救无效死亡。

胡友平的见义勇为的行为被传开来，随后她阳光，积极面对生活的一面也被媒体广泛报道，引发网民扼腕叹息。

2024年7月，胡友平被授予“苏州市见义勇为模范”称号。

该案经曝光后立即引发巨大社会反响，全社会都谴责凶手对无辜人员行凶的暴行。而胡友平的英勇事迹被媒体曝光后，更是引发了无论来自日本还是中国以及全世界大量网友的悼念。

今天，来自日本驻北京大使馆的消息：深圳市中级人民法院在本月24日，以故意杀人罪，判处40多岁的一中国男性被告死刑。今天是此案件的首次公审，即被判处即日执行死刑。

此案件即指去年9月在中国广东省深圳市发生的日本男童（当时10岁）遇袭身亡案，庭审未对媒体公开，但日本驻广州总领事馆的总领事贵岛善子到场旁听。

案件发生在去年9月18日。

庭审从24日上午开始，经过休庭后下午继续开庭，不久后闭庭。

男子刀刺上学途中的男童，男童翌日死亡。相关部门表示该案属“偶发个案”，没有公布动机等详情。

但这次被查，有汪老师说有关，我觉得可能也不一定，因为前西藏自治区党委书记吴英杰被查根本没完，很可能因为这个被牵扯，其时任西藏自治区政府主席脱不了干系，而且上次去的时候，王岐山被责令继续查，所以最后还没抓完。

知情人：齐扎拉还是很实干的，当年在迪庆是州长，州委书记一人当，“香格里拉”这个名字是在他手上和四川竞争到的。省里提拔的时候，他觉得云南当时省里很黑，就去了西藏，刚去拉萨第一个事就是弄了文成公主的实景演出。

徐元峰《我的藏族兄弟们》有：说到迪庆康巴人，绕不开齐扎拉。他现任迪庆州委书记，是一个地道的康巴汉子。之所以绕不开，也是不愿绕：在许多人眼里，齐书记没有逼人的官气，倒有些学者的质朴。当然，他对这片土地的虔诚与深情，不仅停留在智识上，也渗进血液里。看到有些藏民不种青稞搞起了塑料大棚，他深深地忧虑：生产方式连着传统文化，没了青稞架，高原草甸就丢了魂。他说，你看那土掌房，白墙蓝顶在高天流云之下，星罗棋布的匍匐着，多么谦卑！而在澜沧江干热河谷地带，他不遗余力推广种葡萄，把生态建设产业化。

本文原文于北京时间2024年11月18日上午在真实影像公众号首发。2024年11月19日就发生了常德学校无差别撞人事件。2024年11月20日早就被系统下架删除了。

论文作者：马子琪、赵云亭 | 华东理工大学 Authors of the paper: Ma Ziqi, Zhao Yunting | East China University of Science and Technology

Editor's Note: Why have the heinous incidents of "retaliating against society" occurred frequently in recent years? How should we view and prevent such incidents?

This paper focuses on studying 20 cases of retaliating against society, analyzing the retaliatory psychology of those who retaliate against society, and distinguishing four types of sources such as market exclusion, participation exclusion, public service exclusion, and social relationship exclusion.

When the excluded individuals encounter social setbacks and lack sufficient social and psychological resources to relieve their negative emotions, they are likely to develop a retaliatory psychology, and then resort to extreme emotions and retaliatory actions.

The author points out that it is worth noting that some criminal acts of retaliating against society belong to a kind of **performative violence, where the perpetrators intend to attract public attention and social recognition through extreme behaviors**.

He believes that to eliminate the structural risks that may lead to the frequent occurrence of retaliating against society behaviors, a social safety valve system should be established, a social buffer mechanism for marginalized groups should be set up, and a balance should be sought between maintaining the stability of the rigid social structure and stretching the elastic social mentality, so as to prevent and resolve the criminal acts of retaliating against society.

If we cannot find the systematic causes and solutions from the 20 incidents of retaliating against society and make a turn, the 21st incident will inevitably occur.

This article is selected from the 6th issue of Journal of Jiangsu Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition) in 2019. The original title is **"Social Exclusion and Behavioral Polarization: The Generation Mechanism and Prevention and Control of Individual Retaliating Against Society Incidents"**, and it only represents the views of the authors, for your consideration.

编者按：

为何这些年“报复社会”的恶性事件频发？

本文集中研究20起报复社会案例，分析报复社会者的报复心理，区分了市场排斥、参与排斥、公共服务排斥、社会关系排斥等四类来源。

当被排斥者遭遇社会挫折而缺乏足够的社会资源和心理资源疏解负面情绪时，很可能形成报复心理，进而诉诸极端情绪与报复行动。

作者指出，值得注意的是，有些报复社会的犯罪行为属于一种**表演式暴力，施暴者欲以极端行为博得舆论关注和社会承认。**他认为，要消除可能导致报复社会行为频发的结构性风险，应建立社会安全阀体系，建立边缘群体的社会缓冲机制，在维持刚性社会结构稳定与弹性社会心态舒展中寻求平衡之道，进而预防和化解报复社会的犯罪行为。

如不能从二十起报复社会的事件找到系统性原因和解决方案，并掉头，必然还会出现第二十一起。

本文选自《江苏师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第6期，原题为**“社会排斥与行为极化：个体报复社会事件的生成机理及防控”**，仅代表作者观点，供诸君思考。

Social Exclusion and Behavioral Polarization: The Generation Mechanism and Prevention and Control of Individual Retaliating Against Society Incidents

社会排斥与行为极化：个体报复社会事件的生成机理及防控

With the advent of the risk society, the development of social forces has also entered a stage of high individualization, independence, and decentralization. The power of individuals has been continuously expanding, and the most obvious manifestation is the growth of individual extreme violent behaviors. Conducting an online search with the keyword "retaliating against society incidents", incidents such as injuring people by driving vehicles, slashing people with knives, and setting fire on buses... Similar tragedies keep happening, and each occurrence of such a tragedy jolts the nerves of the public. Individual retaliating against society incidents refer to sudden extreme incidents in which marginalized individuals who are excluded by society develop a resentful mentality due to repeated emotional and interest damages, and indiscriminately carry out violent acts of aggression against the general public in the pursuit of emotional and factual justice, thus seriously threatening social stability and safety. In terms of nature, individual retaliating against society behaviors are the extreme manifestation forms of emotional deviant behaviors.

Such incidents generally have the following characteristics:

1. The actor of the behavior is a single individual, mostly from marginalized groups excluded by society.

2. The purpose of the behavior is irrational, and the long-accumulated resentful emotions and sense of injustice are the main psychological inducements.

3. The targets of aggression are generalized, usually targeting uncertain social groups, such as the passenger groups in bus arson incidents, or unspecified individuals within a specific group, such as acts of aggression specifically targeting children and students.

4. The means are to expand the lethality, often choosing weapons that can cause widespread threats in a short period of time, such as explosives, arson, and knives.

5. Suddenness and terrifying consequences, with no obvious signs before the incident occurs, a very short duration, being difficult to predict and prevent, and easily causing multiple casualties, with extremely bad social impacts. This paper selects 20 typical cases from 2015 to 2019, carefully combs through the occurrence process of each case as well as the psychological and behavioral change process of the actors, and thereby gains insights into the general characteristics and generation laws of individual retaliating against society behaviors.

随着风险社会的来临，社会力量的发展也进入了高度个体化、独立化、分散化的阶段，个体的力量不断膨胀，表现最为明显的即个体极端暴力行为的增长。以“报复社会事件”为关键词进行网络检索，驾车伤人、持刀砍人、公交车纵火……相似的悲剧总在不停上演，每一次惨剧的发生都刺激着公众的神经。

个体报复社会事件是指被社会排斥的边缘主体因多次情感与利益受损产生怨恨心理，为寻求情感与事实正义而对社会公众无差别地实施暴力侵害行为，从而严重威胁社会稳定与安全的突发性极端事件。

从性质上看，个体报复社会行为是情感性越轨行为的极端表现形式。此类事件一般具有以下特征：1．行为主体是单一的个体，大多是被社会排斥的边缘群体。2．行为目的非理性，长期积累的怨恨情绪与不公感是主要心理诱因。3．侵害对象泛化，一般针对的是不确定的社会群体，如公交车纵火中的乘客群体，或是特定群体中的不特定个体，如专门针对儿童学生的侵害行为。4．手段扩大杀伤，往往选择能在短时间内造成广泛威胁的武器，如爆炸物、纵火、刀械等。5．突发性与恐怖后果，事件发生前没有明显的征兆，持续时间很短，难以预料和防范，并且容易引起多人死伤，社会影响极其恶劣。

本文选取了2015-2019年间的20起典型案例，详细梳理每件案例的事发经过及行为人的心理与行为变化历程，从中透视个体报复社会行为的一般特质与生成规律。

▍Exclusion and Deprivation: The Social Logic of Individual Retaliation 排斥与剥夺：个体报复的社会逻辑

(I) Social Exclusion - The Intrinsic Connection with Individual Retaliation "When some individuals and groups do not have access to resources, opportunities, endowments, and power, and these states are considered normal, customary, or expected in the society they live in, it can be said that they have suffered social exclusion." Social exclusion means that the state of the individual's total or partial lack of resources, opportunities, endowments, and power is fixed, and the relationship between the individual or group and society is severed, which will inevitably lead to the deprivation of the abilities of some individuals or groups and limit the individual's life opportunities. Facing the survival difficulties caused by social exclusion, individuals will react differently, such as compliance, innovation, formalism, retreatism, or resistance. The behavior of individuals retaliating against society can be regarded as an extreme manifestation of retreatism - the actor refuses to accept the existing social culture and goals while resisting social reality by non-institutionalized means. In addition, the probability of deviance is positively correlated with the degree of social exclusion suffered by individuals. Generally speaking, the higher the degree of an individual being excluded, the more difficult it is for them to integrate into society, and the more likely it is to trigger deviant behaviors. Especially when an individual cannot maintain the satisfaction of their ideal life through legal means, deviance may be more favored. Through the above analysis, we can draw a conclusion: the deprivation of abilities and the severance of social relations are the two basic incentives for individuals to commit deviant behaviors due to social exclusion.

By thoroughly analyzing the life trajectories of individuals who retaliate against society before the incidents, it is found that the vast majority of the subjects have a common behavioral characteristic before taking extreme actions, that is, they spontaneously and actively alienate themselves from the social relationship network, and their social interactions are in a closed or semi-closed state. They are reluctant to communicate with others and do not participate in any social activities.

For example, in the case of Zhu某某 who injured people with weapons in Beijing Xidan Joy City, before the incident, he was addicted to online games, changed jobs frequently, seldom communicated with others, and even cut off contact with his family. Another example is the case of hacking students in Haikou. According to the reflection of his relatives, the actor Li Sijun behaved abnormally during his return to his hometown before the incident. He did not communicate with others and did not participate in family activities.

According to Giddens' view, social exclusion can be divided into two types: the passive exclusion of the lower social strata and the active exclusion of the upper social strata. The general sense of social exclusion we are talking about refers to passive exclusion, that is, the groups at the bottom of society are forced to be excluded from the mainstream society. However, it has been proved that the phenomenon of active exclusion also occurs among the bottom of society. The living conditions of the retaliators often go through a process from passive exclusion to active exclusion.

First, due to the tension of the external social structure or their own congenital defects, they are excluded to the edge of the social structure, forming "factual exclusion". When their personal desires are not satisfied, they voluntarily and actively detach themselves from the mainstream society, even completely isolate themselves, and even form an anti-social cultural characteristic. This is a more terrifying "psychological exclusion". When the psychological isolation reaches a certain degree or lasts long enough, it will be manifested through individual behaviors in an extremely intense form.

（一）社会排斥—个体报复的内在关联

“当一些个体和群体没有获得资源、机会和禀赋、权力的渠道，而这些状态在他们生活的社会中被认为是正常的、习俗性的或者预期之内时，就可以说他们就遭到了社会排斥。”社会排斥意味着个体的资源、机会、禀赋、权力全部或部分缺失的状态被固定化，个体或群体与社会的关系断裂，这就必然会导致部分个体或群体能力的剥夺，限制个体的生活机会。

面对社会排斥导致的生存困境，个体会作出不同的反应，如遵从、创新、形式主义、隐退主义或是反抗，个体报复社会行为可以看作是隐退主义的极端表现形式———行为人拒绝接受现有的社会文化和目标，同时以非制度化的手段反抗社会现实。

此外，越轨概率的高低与个体遭受社会排斥的程度呈正相关，一般来说个体被排斥的程度越高，越难以融入社会，就越容易引发越轨行为。特别是当个体不能通过合法手段来维持其理想生活的满意度时，越轨可能更受偏爱。

通过上文的分析我们可以得出一个结论：能力剥夺与社会关系断裂是社会排斥导致个体做出越轨行为的两个基本诱因。

通过深入剖析报复社会个体事发前的生活轨迹，发现绝大多数的主体在做出极端行为之前都有一个共同的行为特征，即自发主动地疏离社会关系网络，社会交往都处于封闭或半封闭状态，不愿与人交流，不参加任何社会活动。

例如，北京西单大悦城持械伤人事件中的朱某某，在案发之前因沉迷于网络游戏，频繁更换工作，很少与他人交流，甚至与家人也断绝了联系；再比如海口砍杀学生案，据其亲属反映，行为人李四君在事发前返乡期间，举止异常，不与他人交流，不参加家庭活动。

根据吉登斯的观点，社会排斥可以分为两种类型：社会下层的被动排斥和社会上层的主动排斥，我们所说的一般意义上的社会排斥均指被动排斥，即处于社会底层的群体被迫排斥于主流社会之外，然而事实证明在社会底层中同样会出现主动排斥的现象。报复者的生存样态往往经历了一个由被动排斥到主动排斥的过程。先是由于外部的社会结构张力或自身先天性缺陷被排斥于社会结构的边缘，形成“事实上的排斥”，在个人欲求得不到满足的情况下，自愿主动地脱离主流社会，甚至完全隔离，乃至形成一种反社会的文化特征，这是一种更为可怕的“心理上的排斥”。当心理隔离达到一定程度或持续足够长的时间就会以极端剧烈的形式通过个体行为展现出来。

（二）社会排斥—个体报复的制度过程 Social Exclusion - The Institutional Process of Individual Retaliation

What social exclusion emphasizes is "who" (the promoters and agents) excludes others from certain social fields through what kind of institutional process, with the focus on revealing the internal mechanisms and processes. Therefore, it is necessary to explain under the influence of which mechanisms the subjects who retaliate against society are gradually excluded to the edge of society, thus increasing the possibility of deviance. Eliot Curry found in his latest research that crime is the social consequence of the unrestrained release of market forces. Exclusion mechanisms such as changes in the labor market, the weakening of social network support, the reduction of basic public services, the amplification of Darwinism and the culture of resource competition will promote crime to varying degrees. Judging from the living difficulties of the subjects who retaliate against society, they have mostly experienced the following four types of exclusion.

1. Market Exclusion

Market exclusion includes exclusion from the labor market and the consumer market. Labor market exclusion means that members of a certain group are excluded from the mainstream labor market, facing the risks of regular unemployment or unstable employment, and can only engage in heavy physical labor or service jobs in career choices. The exclusion of the consumer market is manifested as being unable to afford or being restricted in the ability to use goods and services, and it is difficult to integrate into the mainstream lifestyle of consumption. They cannot enjoy the same welfare benefits and preferential policies as urban residents, and the material needs of their living consumption are also difficult to be satisfied, being seriously isolated from other classes in terms of economic status.

For example, in the case of injuring students in Shanghai, Huang Yichuan had long been unsuccessful in finding jobs in many places. After coming to Shanghai in June 2018, it was even more difficult for him to find a suitable job. He had been unemployed all the time, with no means of livelihood, and developed a world-weary sentiment, thus giving birth to the idea of retaliating against society. In the case of Jia 某某 in Beijing Xicheng District Xuanshi No. 1 Affiliated Primary School, he was dissatisfied because he was not assigned to a suitable position after the expiration of his labor dispatch contract.

The market economy is essentially an exclusionary mechanism of survival of the fittest. Under the condition that both resource allocation and labor selection are determined by the market, it will inevitably limit the market access opportunities of some vulnerable groups with weak capabilities. In addition, "market failure" and the imperfect development of the market economic system will also cause inequality in the enjoyment of resources and welfare, further intensifying the intensity of exclusion of vulnerable groups.

1. Participation Exclusion

Participation exclusion means that the subject is excluded from the decision-making process, lacking the right to speak, having a low level of participation in public affairs, and having no right and opportunity to obtain political resources fairly, enjoy political rights and fulfill political obligations. For vulnerable groups, it is manifested as the vulnerability of their legitimate rights and interests, the blockage of the channels for expressing their interests, and the ineffectiveness of the institutionalized ways of safeguarding their rights after their interests are damaged.

For example, in the 2016 Yinchuan bus arson case, the suspect Ma Yongping was owed more than 200,000 yuan in wages by subcontractors for three years. He had to use private lending to pay off his debts. During the process of demanding wages, he was even beaten by the civil engineering boss and his thugs. When he applied to the relevant departments of the local county and town governments for safeguarding his rights, he was repeatedly shirked. Under the hopeless situation of demanding wages and safeguarding his rights, he fell into extreme dissatisfaction and hatred.

Paying wages on time is the legitimate right of citizens protected by the system. However, at the actual implementation level, not all individuals' legitimate interests can be protected. Especially for marginal groups with obviously weak social status and resource possession, they are themselves political marginal people who rarely or never participate in political activities. Their ability to safeguard their own rights and interests through legal channels is even more limited. Due to the institutional environment and social structural defects, vulnerable groups are more likely to encounter the risk of rights damage than other classes.

1. Public Service Exclusion

Public service exclusion means that "individuals or groups cannot enjoy social rights because they do not have citizenship, or even if they have citizenship, they are excluded from certain national welfare systems". This is particularly serious among the floating population in China, especially the rural floating population. The regional barriers based on the household registration system divide urban and rural residents into two different social identities. Due to the lack of formal resident identities, foreign populations are excluded from the urban public service system in the fields of education, medical care, social security, and housing.

With unstable incomes and a lack of necessary guarantees, the gap between the rich and the poor between migrant workers and urban residents is becoming more and more obvious. The imbalance and inequality in the distribution of welfare resources have intensified the survival risks of marginal groups. The risks of unemployment, occupational diseases, economic losses, etc. are magnified geometrically on vulnerable groups. Public service exclusion further weakens the ability of marginal groups to resist risks, and various risks in life may cause individuals to fall into a quagmire of survival.

For example, in the Xuzhou kindergarten explosion case, Xu 某某 lost his education opportunities due to his physiological diseases, dropped out of school early to work. Due to the lack of professional skills and poor physical health, it was also difficult for him to find a better position. The pressure of life gradually unbalanced his psychology, and then he chose to end his life by retaliating against society.

1. Social Relationship Exclusion

For example, Jiang 某春 in the Changshu arson case was introverted and taciturn since childhood. He was not valued in the family. After growing up, he seldom contacted his family when working outside. His marriage life was not satisfactory either. He was addicted to gambling all day long and gave up on himself. Seeing that his cousin Jiang Dashan, who came out to work with him, was living a better and better life, comparing with his own gloomy life, it aroused his inner jealousy. Jiang's father thought that his nephew Jiang Dashan did not help his son Jiang 某春 enough, which further deepened Jiang 某春's resentment. For him, what was sad was not only life but also the emotional estrangement.

With the disintegration of traditional family structures and communities, the influence of social individualization and social mobility has made the traditional kinship relationships mainly based on blood and geographical relationships extremely fragile. Especially for the floating population, they have detached from the original social relationship network and cannot immediately integrate into the new environment. The relationship bonds are in a broken state. When facing the risk of infringement, the strange city does not provide them with a buffer harbor. The family and relative relationship network of "living in a different place" is powerless to provide help. Social relationship exclusion has cut off the last line of defense for marginal groups to defend against and resist the risks of life.

In the Nanchang Honggutan case, Wan 某弟 lost hope in life because he could not marry a wife and even wanted to kill a beautiful girl to be his "wife in the underworld". Hou 某锋 in Fuzhou was resentful because his ex-wife found a new boyfriend. After stabbing her boyfriend to death, he vented his anger on passers-by. The emptiness of emotions has broken the last line of defense of the bottom survivors. The indifference of life has prompted them to embark on the path of crime.

In addition, the multidimensionality and cumulativeness of social exclusion make it possible for groups or individuals to experience multiple exclusions simultaneously. The exclusion suffered in one area will lead to exclusions on other levels, and these exclusions will interact with each other, resulting in multiple exclusions and vulnerabilities, comprehensively creating the living difficulties of vulnerable groups. For example, the lack of employment or access to public service for a person will lead to his economic poverty, and economic poverty in turn will lead to other forms of deprivation (such as damage to rights or the breakage of social relationship support). Therefore, social exclusion itself is not only a part of the deprivation of capabilities but also one of the reasons for the insufficient ability to resist risks.

社会排斥强调的是“谁”（推动者和施动者）通过怎样的制度过程将他人排斥出一定的社会领域，重点在于揭示内在的机制和过程。因此需要说明报复社会的主体是在哪些机制的作用下一步一步被排斥于社会边缘，从而提高了越轨的可能性。艾略特·库里在最新的研究中发现，犯罪是大肆释放市场力量的社会后果，劳动力市场变化、社会网络支持弱化、基本公共服务的减少、达尔文主义以及资源竞争文化的放大等排斥机制都会在不同程度上促进犯罪。从报复社会主体的生活困境来看，他们大都经历了以下四种类型的排斥。

1.市场排斥

市场排斥包括来自劳动力市场和消费市场的排斥。劳动力市场排斥是指某一类群体的成员被排斥于主流劳动力市场之外，存在经常性失业或就业不稳定风险，在职业选择上只能从事重体力劳动或服务业等工作。消费市场的排斥则表现为买不起或被限制了使用商品和服务的能力，难以融入主流的生活消费方式。他们无法与城镇居民享受同等的福利待遇、优惠政策，生活消费的物质需求也难以得到满足，在经济地位上与其他阶层严重隔离。

例如, 上海伤害学生案中的黄一川，在多地长期就业不顺，2018年6月来沪后更加难以找到合适的工作，一直处于失业状态，生活没有着落，产生厌世情绪，由此萌生了报复社会的想法。北京西城区宣师一附小学案中的贾某某则是因为其劳务派遣合同到期后，没有被安排到合适岗位而心生不满。

市场经济本质上是一种优胜劣汰的排斥性机制，在资源配置和劳动力选择都由市场来决定的条件下，必然会限制一部分能力弱势群体的市场准入机会。此外，市场“失灵”与市场经济体制发展不健全也会造成资源和福利享有的不平等，进一步加剧了对弱势群体的排斥烈度。

2.参与排斥

参与排斥指主体被排斥出决策过程，缺少话语权，公共事务参与程度低、没有公平获取政治资源、享受政治权利和履行政治义务的权利和机会。对于弱势群体来说表现为合法权益的易损性，利益诉求途径受阻以及利益受损后制度化维权方式的失效。

例如, 在2016年银川公交车纵火案中，嫌疑人马永平三年被分包商拖欠20多万元工资，不得已采用民间借贷的方式还债，讨薪期间甚至还遭遇土建老板及其打手殴打，向当地县、镇两级政府相关部门申请维权却遭反复推脱，讨薪维权无望之下陷入了极度不满与愤恨之中。

按时支付工资本是受制度保障公民的合法权益，而在实际执行层面，并非所有个体的合法利益都能得到保障，特别是对于社会地位及资源占有数量明显处于弱势的边缘群体来说，他们本身就是极少或是从不参与政治活动的政治边缘人，通过合法渠道维护自身权益的能力更为有限。由于制度环境和社会结构性缺陷，弱势群体比之其他阶层更容易遭遇权利受损风险。

3.公共服务排斥

公共服务排斥指“个人或群体因不具有公民资格而无法享有社会权利，或即便具有公民资格也被排斥出某些国家福利制度”，这在我国流动人口尤其是农村流动人口当中表现尤为严重。以户籍制度为基础的区域壁垒将城乡居民划分成了两种不同社会身份，外来人口由于不具备正式的居民身份，在教育、医疗、社会保障、住房等公共服务领域方面都被排斥在城市公共服务体系之外。

收入不稳定加之缺乏必要保障，外来的农民工与城市居民相比贫富差距愈加明显，福利资源分配不平衡与不平等加剧了边缘群体的生存风险，失业、职业病、经济损失等风险损害在弱势群体身上呈几何倍的放大。公共服务排斥进一步弱化了边缘群体抵御风险能力，而生活中的各类风险都有可能导致个体陷入生存泥淖。

例如, 徐州幼儿园爆炸案中的许某某，因自身的生理性疾病失去了教育机会，早早辍学打工，由于没有一技之长以及身体健康状况较差也很难找到较好的岗位，生活的压力促使他的心理逐渐失衡，进而选择通过报复社会的方式来结束自己的生命。

4.社会关系排斥

例如，常熟纵火案中的姜某春自小性格内向、沉默寡言，在家庭中得不到重视，成年后在外打工极少与家人联系，婚姻生活也并不如意，整日沉迷于赌博，自暴自弃。看到跟随自己出来打拼的表弟姜大山日子越过越红火，对比自己灰暗的生活激发了他内心的嫉妒，姜父认为侄子姜大山给予儿子姜某春帮助不够，又进一步加深了姜某春的怨恨，对于他来说难过的不仅是生活还有来自情感上的疏离。

随着传统家庭结构与社区的解体，社会个体化以及社会流动的影响使得传统的以血缘、地缘为主体的亲缘关系变得极为脆弱，特别是对于流动人口来说，他们脱离了原来的社会关系网络又无法立即融入全新的环境，关系纽带处于断裂状态，当面临风险侵害时，陌生城市并没有为他们提供可以缓冲的港湾，“异地生存”的家庭与亲属关系网络又无力提供帮助，社会关系排斥切断了边缘群体防御抗争生活风险的最后防线。

南昌红谷滩一案中的万某弟因为娶不上妻子对生活失去希望，竟想要杀一个漂亮姑娘作“阴间夫妻”；福州的侯某锋则是因为前妻找到新的男友而心生怨恨，捅死其男友后又将愤怒发泄于路人。情感上的空虚打破了底层生存者的最后防线，生活的冷漠促使他们走上犯罪的道路。

此外，社会排斥的多向度性和累积性使得群体或个体有可能同时经历多重排斥，在某一领域遭受的排斥会引致其他层面的排斥，这些排斥又会互相施以反作用，导致多重排斥与弱势，综合造就了弱势群体的生活困境。例如一个人在就业或获取公共服务上的缺失会导致他面临经济上的穷困，而经济上的穷困反过来又会导致其他形式的剥夺（如权利受损或社会关系支持断裂）。因此，社会排斥本身不但是能力剥夺的一部分，而且也是造成抵御风险能力不足的原因之一。

▍行为极化：个体报复社会的情感逻辑 Behavioral Polarization: The Emotional Logic of Individual Retaliation Against Society

(I) The Emotional Attributes of Individual Retaliation Against Society Behaviors On the surface, the experience of social exclusion prompts individuals to develop the motivation to retaliate against society, thus leading to the occurrence of deviant behaviors. However, there is no inevitable connection between the stimulus of the survival difficulties under the exclusion state and the occurrence of deviant behaviors. Not all individuals who are socially excluded will turn to crime. Almost without exception, news reports about individuals retaliating against society will point out in the reasons for the crimes that the perpetrators have retaliatory psychology and world-weary emotions. Therefore, retaliatory psychology is the decisive factor that directly leads to the indiscriminate venting of anger by individuals. Retaliatory psychology is a self-defense and protection mechanism to cope with and resist external unfavorable factors. It is a compensatory reaction spontaneously carried out by individuals to maintain inner balance. Retaliatory psychology goes hand in hand with the negative emotional pressure of individuals, such as negative emotions like pain, inferiority, humiliation, and anger. From the perspective of value intensity and duration, the formation of retaliatory motivation is the result of the emotional polarization of individuals, evolving from negative emotions such as pain, anger, and humiliation with higher intensity but shorter duration into extreme value judgments and psychological identifications such as social insecurity, hatred, political apathy, and pessimistic world-weary with lower intensity but longer duration. For example, in the Yulin Mizhi case, Zhao Zewi was always bullied by his classmates when he was studying in Mizhi No. 3 Middle School in his youth. The long-standing resentment caused defects in his character and formed serious psychological trauma. His work and life had been unsmooth after he grew up.

Emotion is the regulator of human behavior, guiding people's decisions both consciously and unconsciously. Emotional defects will lead to defective social behaviors. Elster pointed out: "If the possession of a certain emotion is harmful in itself, then acting according to this emotion is equally harmful." Generally speaking, people with higher social and economic status have more social and psychological resources to prevent the emergence of extreme emotions. The lower the individual's social status is, the more likely they are to be exposed to negative life events and problems that cause pressure. When an individual is always in a negative state in the "market position", that is, in a state of being deprived and discriminated against for a long time, those low emotions will be stored up and continue as "traumas". And angry individuals or groups do not have complete control over their behaviors. Driven by emotional forces, the behaviors of individuals or groups may deviate from the originally envisioned rational track and undergo mutations, ultimately leading to the occurrence of indiscriminate and irrational aggressive behaviors.

(II) The Behavioral Polarization Process of Individual Retaliation Against Society The motivation of excluded individuals to retaliate against society is formed under the impetus of emotions. By sorting out the psychological process of individuals who retaliate against society, it is found that the formation of extreme behaviors generally goes through four stages: perception of stimuli from the real environment and harm caused by exclusion, processing of harm experiences and arousal of negative emotions, formation of retaliatory psychology and estimation of implementation effects, and externalization of extreme emotions and implementation of retaliatory actions.

1. Perception of Stimuli from the Real Environment and Harm Caused by Exclusion Individuals' encounter with social exclusion and the formation of initial emotional experiences is the first stage of both retaliatory psychology and the behavioral polarization process. In this stage, individuals directly or indirectly come into contact with damages such as resource deprivation, power restriction, opportunity loss, and relationship rupture from the social environment or other strata, and initially form negative emotional experiences such as inferiority, pain, and anger. In this process, individuals' perception of harm is a crucial factor affecting what kind of reaction they will make. Different people will have different psychological reactions to the same situational stimuli. In many cases, what seems not to be a significant stimulus to ordinary people may be a devastating psychological blow to marginal groups. For example, in the "9·30" explosion incident in Liucheng County, Guangxi, Wei Yinyong had disputes with villagers many times due to hidden dangers of quarry disasters and rent issues. He developed strong dissatisfaction during this process and even threatened to blow up the villagers' houses. After the quarry was shut down, the relationship with the villagers became even more tense.

2. Processing of Harm Experiences and Arousal of Negative Emotions The processing of harm from the environment by excluded individuals and the generation of strong negative emotions is the second stage of the behavior. In this stage, individuals combine the perceived environmental stimuli with the existing knowledge and experience in their minds, make judgments on the information and draw basic conclusions. Due to the long-term effect of the exclusion environment, the level of knowledge and experience of individuals in this stage is inherently defective and insufficient, which may cause their processing of information and experience to be one-sided or extreme, deliberately exaggerating the consequences of environmental damage and further intensifying the existing negative emotional experiences, such as transitioning from primary tension, anger, sadness, jealousy, and loneliness to deeply self-poisoning negative emotions such as resentment, hatred, and a sense of incompetence. At this time, the individual's psychology is in a serious imbalance state. For example, in the case of Wei Yinyong, in his view, the quarry was shut down because the villagers were jealous of his making money and deliberately made trouble. The handling of the relevant units was also unfair. It was shut down before the expiration of the business license, which he thought was an infringement of his legitimate rights by the government, while ignoring the hidden dangers of the quarry and the adverse effects on the surrounding environment.

3. Formation of Retaliatory Psychology and Estimation of Implementation Effects The formation of retaliatory psychology and motivation is the key link and core stage of behavioral polarization. Based on the first two stages, individuals have identified the damages caused by environmental stimuli. Out of the need to safeguard their own interests, sense of security, and dignity, they have developed the idea of hurting others to maintain self-esteem and restore a balanced state of mind, and decided to take retaliatory means to fight back. At the same time, they have also analyzed the objects of retaliation and the feasibility of implementation. For individuals who retaliate against society, they have suffered multiple harms from society. Some harms are not caused by specific individuals, such as poverty, unemployment, and diseases. It is difficult to find a specific object of hatred. Some are because the opponents are too powerful. Simply retaliating against one or two people is difficult to satisfy their psychological needs. Therefore, they expand their hatred and retaliate against countless unprepared strangers to produce an effect that can match their angry emotions. At this time, the individual's negative emotional energy reaches its extreme value. Any environmental stimulus or emotional fluctuation may trigger the individual's retaliatory behavior. Before the incident, Wei Yinyong once wrote on Weibo: "When I go crazy one day, please remember that I was played like a fool when I was innocent." "I must move forward because there is no retreat. I will fight desperately to get unexpected results." "It's time for me to kill people."

4. Externalization of Extreme Emotions and Implementation of Retaliatory Actions The implementation of retaliatory actions against society is the externalization stage of retaliatory psychology and extreme emotions. Individuals carry out violent acts against unspecified crowds by means of extreme violence such as arson, explosion, and assault with weapons to vent extreme emotions. The long-accumulated negative emotional energy of individuals is awakened and activated, and they begin to consciously conceive retaliatory plans and put them into practice. For example, on the day of the incident, Yang Zanyun first sent his girlfriend home and then returned to the county town alone to wait for an opportunity to carry out retaliatory actions. He first drove his car to the vicinity of the entrance of the Hengdong County Court to wait, intending to ram into the court staff. After failing to find an opportunity, he drove into the Mijiang Square in the county town and rammed into the people who were relaxing and entertaining in the square all the way. After the vehicle hit an obstacle and the airbag opened, he got out of the car and swung a folding shovel and a dagger at the on-site crowd, causing heavy casualties among innocent people.

(III) The Incubation Field of "Traumatic" Emotions From the previous analysis, we know that when an individual is always in a state of being deprived and discriminated against in the "market position", those negative emotional experiences will be stored up and continue as "traumas". Then in which situations are these "traumatic" emotional experiences incubated? According to Collins' explanation, the close connection between individuals and social situations is achieved through emotional energy, which is an emotional resource for individuals to carry out social interactions. When a situation can meet most of an individual's needs, it will maintain a high level of emotional energy; otherwise, it will be at a low level. The acquisition of individual emotional energy in society is achieved in the following types of social fields, including families, schools, communities, work units, social groups or social organizations. According to the differences in places, interaction objects, and interaction frequencies, the social situations of individuals who retaliate against society can be divided into three types: familiar situations, social situations, and work situations. Familiar situations refer to daily interactions with acquaintances without specific goals and with the closest relationships, which are also the main sources of emotional energy, such as interactions in families, with other relatives or neighbors.

The traumatic experiences from familiar situations are mainly manifested as the interruption of intimate relationships such as divorce and broken love. Social situations are for the purpose of interaction itself to obtain a sense of pleasure, with the functions of communication, understanding, and information exchange, such as rural-related groups and community activities. The traumatic experiences are manifested as contempt and isolation from rural groups and class discrimination related to residential segregation. In work situations, both sides have specific goals and clear division of labor, with behavioral restrictions and less emotional communication, such as interactions in work units, schools, and transactions. The traumatic experiences are manifested as failure of self-actualization caused by unemployment, dropping out of school, etc. and peer exclusion. For example, in the Yulin Mizhi case, the perpetrator mainly experienced traumatic experiences in school life and society. In the Huludao vehicle ramming case, it was the spread and manifestation of family contradictions. Both experienced low levels of emotional energy. The "traumatic" experiences of excluded individuals do not occur singly. They may simultaneously or alternately encounter emotional harm or relationship rupture in different situations. In the 2016 Jiangxi Fengxin vehicle ramming case, a friend of the suspect Hu Jiabing recalled his life experience, saying: "Seven or eight years ago, his wife divorced him. His son got into a fight and was jailed in 2014. Originally, he (Hu Jiabing) drove one car himself and hired a driver to drive another. After getting out of prison, he had nothing. He relied on driving for others and earned seven or eight thousand yuan a month... He took the money and went to Beijing to appeal... He didn't do drugs. His phone was very old and couldn't even get on the net. He just loved gambling."

The barrier of social exclusion prevents individuals from obtaining sufficient emotional returns from daily life situations, and they are in a long-term state of low emotional energy. Setbacks such as dropping out of school, unemployment, and divorce are all situational events that reduce individual emotional energy.

（一）个体报复社会行为的情感属性

从表面上看，社会排斥体验促使个体产生报复社会的动机，从而导致越轨行为的发生，但是，排斥状态下的生存困境刺激与越轨行为的发生之间不具备必然联系，并非所有被社会排斥的个体都会走上犯罪的道路。有关个体报复社会的新闻报道几乎无一例外地都会在作案原因中点明作案者存在报复心理与厌世情绪，因此报复心理才是直接导向个体无差别泄愤行为的决定因素。

**报复心理是一种应对、反抗外部不利因素的自我防御保护机制，是个体为了保持内心平衡而自发进行的补偿反应。**报复心理与个体的负性情感压力是相伴而生的，如痛苦、自卑、羞辱、愤怒等负面情绪，从价值强度与持续时间的角度来看，报复动机的形成是个体情感极化的结果，从强度较高但持续时间较短的痛苦、愤怒与羞辱等负性情绪演化为强度较低但持续时间较长的社会不安全感、仇恨情绪、政治冷漠、悲观厌世等极端的价值判断与心理认同。

例如，在榆林米脂一案中，赵泽伟少年时在米脂三中上学时总是受同学欺负，积怨已久，造成了其性格上的残缺，形成了严重的心理创伤，成年后工作生活一直不顺。

情感是人类行为的调节器，在有意识和无意识间指导着人们的决策，情感上的缺陷会导致有缺陷的社会行为。埃尔斯特指出：“如果某种情感的拥有本身就有害的话，那么，按照这种情感行事同样是有害的。”一般来说，社会经济地位较高的人拥有更多的社会资源和心理资源来预防极端情绪的产生。个体的社会地位越低，就越容易接触到造成压力的负性生活事件和问题，当个体在“市场位置”中总是处于消极状态时，即长期处于被剥夺与被歧视状态，那些低沉的情绪体验就会储存起来，并且作为“创伤”而延续。而负气的个体或群体对其行为并不完全具有掌控力，在情绪力量的推动下，个体或群体的行为可能偏离预先设想的理性轨道而产生突变, 最终导致无差别非理性攻击行为的发生。

（二）个体报复社会的行为极化过程

被排斥个体报复社会动机是在情感的推力下形成的，通过梳理报复社会个体的心理历程发现，极端行为的形成大致经历了现实环境刺激与排斥伤害感知、伤害体验加工与负性情绪唤醒、报复心理形成与实施效果估量、极端情绪外化与报复行动施行四个阶段。

1.现实环境刺激与排斥伤害感知

个体遭遇社会排斥并形成初步的情感体验是报复心理也是行为极化过程的第一阶段。在这一阶段，个体直接或间接地接触到来自社会环境或其他阶层的资源剥夺、权力限制、机会缺失及关系破裂等损害，并初步形成了自卑、痛苦、愤怒等消极的情感体验。在这一过程中个体对伤害的感知是影响他们做出何种反应的关键性因素，不同的人对同样的情境刺激会产生不同的心理反应，在许多情况下，一般人看来不是重大的刺激，而在边缘群体那里有可能是毁灭性的心理打击。

例如，广西柳城县“9·30”爆炸事件中，韦银勇因采石场灾害隐患与租金问题多次与村民发生纠纷，他在这一过程中产生了强烈的不满情绪，甚至还威胁要炸掉村民的房子，采石场被关停后与村民的关系愈发紧张。

2.伤害体验加工与负性情绪唤醒

被排斥的个体对来自环境的伤害进行加工，并产生强烈的负性情绪是行为的第二阶段。在这一阶段，个体将感知到的环境刺激与头脑中已有的知识经验相结合，对信息作出判断从而得出基本结论。**由于排斥环境的长期作用，这一阶段的个体知识经验水平本身就存在缺陷与不足，有可能使得他们对信息经验的加工存在片面性或是极端化，刻意夸大环境损害造成的后果，进一步激化已有的负性情绪体验，**如从初级的紧张、愤怒、悲伤、嫉妒、孤独过渡到怨恨、仇视、无能感等深度自我毒害的负性情绪，此时个体的心理处于严重失衡的状态。

例如，韦银勇一案中，在他看来，采石场被关停是由于村民嫉妒自己挣钱才故意闹事，相关单位的处理也有失公正，在经营许可证有效期之前被迫关停，是政府侵害了自己的合法权益，而忽略了采石场的安全隐患以及对周遭环境造成的不良影响。

3.报复心理形成与实施效果估量

报复心理与动机的形成是行为极化的关键环节与核心阶段，个体在前两个阶段的基础上明确了环境刺激造成的损害，出于维护自我利益、安全感和尊严的需要，产生了伤害他人以维护自尊、恢复平衡心态的念头，决定采取报复手段进行还击，同时也对报复的对象与实施的可行性进行了分析。

对于报复社会的个体来说，他们遭受的是来自社会多重的伤害，有些伤害并非由具体个人造成，比如贫困、失业、疾病等等，难以找到一个明确的仇恨对象；有些则是因为对手太强大，**单纯报复一二个人难以满足他们的心理需要，因而将仇恨扩大化，报复毫无防备且数量众多的陌生人才能产生足以匹配他们愤怒情绪的效果。此时个体的负性情感能量达到极值，任何一点环境刺激或情绪波动都有可能激发个体的报复行为。**韦银勇案发前曾在微博中写道：“等到那一天我变得疯狂，请记得我单纯时曾被你们当傻子一样耍。”“必须往前走，因为没有退路，我会拼命换来意想不到的后果。”“我杀人的时间到了”等语。

4.极端情绪外化与报复行动施行

报复社会行为付诸实施是报复心理与极端情绪的外化阶段，个体通过纵火、爆炸、持械伤人等极端暴力手段对不特定群众实施暴力行为以发泄极端情绪。个体积蓄已久的负性情感能量被唤醒激活，开始有意识地设想报复计划并付诸实践。

例如, 阳赞云在案发当日，他先将女友送回家，然后独自返回县城，伺机实施报复行为。他先把车开到衡东县法院门口附近守候，意图冲撞法院工作人员。未觅得机会后，又驾车冲入位于县城的洣江广场，一路猛烈撞击正在广场休闲娱乐的人群。车辆撞到障碍物致使安全气囊打开后，他又下车持折叠铲、匕首挥砍现场群众，造成无辜群众重大伤亡。

（三）“创伤”情感的孵化场域

通过前文的分析我们知道，当个体在“市场位置”中总是处于被剥夺与被歧视状态时，那些消极的情绪体验就会储存起来，并且作为“创伤”而延续。那么这些“创伤”式的情感体验是在哪些情境中被孕育的呢？根据柯林斯的解释，个体与社会情境的紧密联系是通过情感能量来实现的，它是个体进行社会互动的一种情感资源，当情境能够满足个体大多数的需求时就会保持在较高的情感能量水平，反之则会处于较低的情感能量水平。

社会中个体情感能量的获得是在以下几类社会场域中实现的，包括家庭、学校、社区、工作单位、社会团体或社会组织等。**按照场所、交往对象与交往频度的不同，可将报复社会个体的社会情境划分为熟悉情境、社交情境、工作情境三种类型。**熟悉情境指与熟人之间的日常交往，没有特定目标，关系最为亲密，也是情感能量的主要来源，如家庭中的互动、与其他亲人或是邻居之间的交往。来自熟悉情境的创伤体验主要表现为离婚、失恋等亲密关系的中断；社交情境则是为了互动而互动，目的是获得愉悦感，作用在于沟通了解和交换信息，如乡缘群体、社区活动等。其创伤体验表现为来自乡群的蔑视与孤立、与居住隔离相关联的阶层歧视；而在工作情境中，双方有特定的目标以及明确分工，存在行为限制，感情交流较少，如工作单位、学校、交易中的交往行为。其创伤体验表现为由失业、辍学等引起的自我实现失败与同辈排斥等。例如榆林米脂一案中，作案者主要是在学校生活和社会中遭遇了创伤体验；葫芦岛驾车撞人案中，则是家庭矛盾的扩散与显现，两者都遭遇了低度的情感能量体验。

被排斥个体的“创伤”体验并非是单一进行的，他们可能同时或交替遭遇不同情境下的情感伤害或关系断裂。

2016年江西奉新撞人案中，犯罪嫌疑人胡家兵的一位朋友回忆其生活经历，称“七八年前老婆和他离婚了，儿子2014年打架入狱了，原来他（胡家兵）自己开一台车，请司机开一台，出狱以后一无所有，靠帮人开车，一个月赚七八千块……拿了钱就去北京申诉……他不吸毒，手机很旧，连网都没法上，就爱赌博”。

▍表演式暴力：个体寻求承认的垂死挣扎 Performative Violence: The Dying Struggle of Individuals Seeking Recognition

Since ancient times, the principle of "revenge has its target and debt has its debtor" has been followed in the traditional Chinese concept of revenge. However, the aggressive acts of these individuals are no longer directed at specific targets in the traditional sense but at the whole society. The purpose of the acts is not to address existing infringements of interests either. This distinguishes the generalized violent actions of individuals from criminal acts in the general sense. It neither conforms to the causal law of crime nor is it due to mental inducements. The purpose of the actors seems to be more inclined to create a sensational effect and send a signal of "pay attention to me" to the whole society. For them, violent acts are more of a purpose than a means. According to Liu Bochao, "retaliating against society" is the process by which individuals seek recognition and attention from others through such extremely harmful and seriously unethical behaviors. Then why do the actors seek recognition from society and why do they resort to performative violence to vent and seek recognition? The research on the social recognition relationship model by Honneth provides the answers.

(I) "Struggle for Recognition" "One must live, but one must be (or become) a human being." Due to the existence of self-awareness, human beings themselves have the need to express themselves and be evaluated by others to confirm the entity and dignity of their own existence. Therefore, people need recognition and need to achieve an appropriate understanding of themselves through the recognition of others to promote the realization of independent and autonomous individuals. In Honneth's research, recognition involves not only the emotional experience of the internal self-awareness of human subjects but also the mutual care that must exist between individuals and society. Individuals gain the confidence to interact with others without obstacles in their interaction with society. Equality is the core content of recognition. Everyone must be protected by legal relations and also bear certain moral obligations. And these moral obligations can precisely shape individuals' behaviors, regulate and adjust people's lives, making people responsible for their own behaviors. Recognition is the basic condition for individuals to survive in modern society and is the expectation of a better life for individuals. Individuals expect society to recognize their current abilities and achievements and take them as the driving force for progress. However, injustice is ubiquitous. Injustice originates from the infringement of the hidden rules of mutual recognition by society, that is, society refuses to recognize or wrongly recognizes the subjectivity of individuals. Some individuals can use the resources they possess to make up for the harm caused by society. For groups excluded from the edge of society, they precisely lack the ability to make up for such harm, and the result is inevitably a continuous experience of contempt. Honneth believes that contempt is the moral motivation for social resistance. In order to express publicly and demand compensation, individuals have to use material, symbolic, or negative violence to struggle with society, that is, "struggle for recognition".

In the farewell letter handwritten by Ma Yongping before the incident, he wrote: "After three years of various efforts to demand wages, I failed. I can't express my despair and anger in words... No one doesn't cherish their own life, and I won't hurt anyone who deceives me. But when my life was... trampled on by the boss with no conscience and was worse than a dog, I could only get back my hard-earned money by embracing death." Therefore, we can understand the retaliatory psychology of individuals as the manifestation of resistance against the experience of contempt. In Honneth's words, it is "recognition justice". Social injustice or social exclusion infringes on the entity and dignity of individuals and violates the "justice" held by individuals. When there is no way to seek help, they turn to deviant behaviors that violate legal or procedural justice. Therefore, in their eyes, retaliating against society is a tragic way to obtain recognition justice.

(II) Performative Violence: Violence as a Means Those who retaliate against society often use extreme means such as slashing, arson, detonating explosives, and ramming people with vehicles to commit violence against others in public places. For them, violence is more of a means to vent emotions and obtain recognition rather than an end. The more easily deprived individuals are, the more inclined they are to resort to obvious or high-profile actions. This gives retaliating against society a performative tinge. The behavior of individuals retaliating against society is the violent performance implemented by individuals to obtain social recognition. Unlike the concealment of ordinary individual crimes, creating a sensational effect is one of the purposes of individuals retaliating against society. They pursue the maximization of social impact or social harm, not expecting to seek specific benefits from this process. To ensure the sensational effect of the behavior, they generally choose vulnerable groups that draw social attention, such as children and students; they use large-scale lethal means, such as chemicals and explosives; and they choose densely populated public places such as public transportation, commercial places, and residential areas as the implementation sites. This is because, on the one hand, there are enough targets for aggression, which is convenient for implementation; on the other hand, there are a large number of spectators, which can meet the needs of the actors to create excitement and attract attention. For example, in the 2009 Wangfujing ramming case, Ai Xuqiang chose Wangfujing as the crime scene. In his view, "Wangfujing is the most prosperous center in China and a place where the rich gather." In the 2010 Zheng Minsheng case, it was also a cross-class retaliation. He chose a key primary school located in the city center where most of the students came from wealthy families to launch an attack. After being subdued, he was still shouting crazily: "They won't let me live, I won't let them live." "The more I kill, the more I earn." In addition, it should be noted that the news media's reports on the behavior of individuals retaliating against society often attract widespread social attention, which incidentally produces the negative effect of spreading violence. Because this will make those who have had similar experiences of being excluded realize that certain violent behaviors can emphasize or highlight their dissatisfaction and trigger the focus of public opinion. Then they may imitate the violent performance. Therefore, the news media has invisibly expanded violent behaviors in this process. For example, in just two months from March to May 2010, six consecutive malicious attacks on the safety of teachers and students on campus occurred across the country. Although the identities of the criminals and the results they caused were different, the methods, processes, and targets of the crimes were highly similar. We have to suspect that the detailed and vivid descriptions of such events by the news media inspired some people with retaliatory psychology to imitate the crimes. Therefore, the harmfulness of retaliating against society events lies not only in the immediate threat they pose to society but also in the demonstration effect they cause.

自古以来中国人传统观念中的报复遵循的是“冤有头债有主”原理，而这些个体的侵害行为指向已经不是传统意义上的具体对象而是整个社会，行为目的也并非针对既存的利益侵害，这就使得个体泛化的暴力行动与一般意义上的犯罪行为区别开来。**既不符合犯罪的因果定律，又并非精神诱因，行为人的目的似乎更倾向于制造轰动效应，向全社会发出“关注我”的信号，暴力行为对于他们来说更多的是作为目的而非手段。**在刘伯超看来，“报复社会”就是个体通过这种危害性极大、严重违反伦理道德的行为方式寻求他人承认与关注的过程。那么行为人为何要向社会寻求承认，又为何诉诸表演式暴力发泄寻求承认？霍耐特关于社会承认关系模式的研究为此提供了答案。

（一）“为承认而斗争”

“人必须活着，但必须是（或成为）人”。人类由于自我意识的存在，本身就有表达自我与被他人评价的需要，用以证实自我存在的实体和尊严，因此人需要承认，需要在他者的承认中达到对自身恰当的理解，以促使独立自主个人的实现。

在霍耐特的研究中，承认不仅涉及人类主体内在自我意识的情感体验，也涉及个体与社会之间所必须具备的相互关爱，个体在与社会互动中获得可以无障碍地与他人交往的自信。平等是承认的核心内容，每个人都须得到法律关系的保护，同时也负担一定的道德义务，而这种道德义务恰恰能够塑造个人的行为、规范和调节人们的生活，使得人们对自己的行为负责。

承认是个体在现代社会中生存的基础性条件，是个体对美好生活的期待。个体期待社会能够承认他们当下的能力及成就，并将其作为前进动力，然而不公正是普遍存在的，不公正根源于社会对隐藏的相互承认规则的侵犯，也就是社会拒绝承认或是错误承认个体的主体性。部分个体能够运用自身占有的资源去弥补社会造成的伤害，对于被排斥于社会边缘的群体来说，他们恰恰缺失这种弥补损害的能力，其结果必然是持续的蔑视体验。霍耐特认为，蔑视是社会反抗的道德动机，为了表达公开和要求补偿，个体不得不运用物质的、象征的或是消极的暴力与社会展开斗争，即“为承认而斗争”。

马永平在案发前手书的绝笔信中写道：“三年来经过各种努力讨薪失败了，我无法用言语来表达绝望和愤怒……没有人不珍惜自己的生活，我也不会去伤害欺骗我的任何人。但当我的生命被……良心泯灭的老板践踏得不如一条狗时，我只能以拥抱死亡的方式要回我的血汗钱。”

因而我们可以把个体的报复心理理解为反抗蔑视体验的表现，用霍耐特的话来说即“承认正义”。社会不公正或者说社会排斥侵犯了个体的实体与尊严，侵犯了个体所秉持的“正义”，在求助无门的情况下转而诉诸违反法理正义或程序正义的越轨行为，因此在他们看来报复社会即是一种获取承认正义的悲情方式。

（二）表演式暴力：作为手段的暴力

报复社会者常采取砍杀、纵火、引爆炸药、驾车撞人等极端方式在公共场所对他人施暴。暴力对于他们来说更多的是发泄情绪、获得承认的手段而非目的。

越是容易被剥夺的个体，越倾向诉求于显而易见或高调的行动，这就使得报复社会渲染上了一层表演色彩，个体报复社会的行为即个体为了获取社会承认而实施的暴力表演。

不同于普通个体犯罪的隐匿性，**制造轰动效应是个体报复社会的目的之一，他们追求的是社会影响或社会危害的最大化，并非期望从这一过程中谋取特定利益。**为了保障行为的轰动效果，他们一般会选择社会关注的弱小群体，例如儿童、学生；借助大规模的杀伤性手段，如化学物品、爆炸物品；实施地点选择在人员密集的公共场所，如公共交通、商业场所、居民住宅区等等，这样做一是因为有足够的侵害目标，便于实施；二是有大量观众，能够满足行为者制造刺激、引起关注的需要。

例如，2009年王府井撞人案中艾绪强选择王府井作为作案地点，在他看来“王府井是中国最繁华的中心，是富人聚集的地方”；2010年郑民生一案同样是跨阶层的报复，选择了地处市中心、学生大都家境殷实的重点小学进行攻击，被制服后还在疯狂大叫：“他们不让我活，我也不让他们活”“多杀一个赚一个”。

另外，**还需要指出的是，新闻媒体对个体报复社会行为的报道，往往会引起社会的广泛关注，这就附带着产生了传播暴力的负面效应。**因为这会让那些具有类似被排斥经历的人意识到, 某些暴力行为可以强调或突出他们的不满，引发舆论的聚焦，于是他们就有可能有样学样地进行暴力表演。所以，新闻媒体在这个过程中隐形地扩大了暴力行为。

例如，2010年3月到5月短短两个月的时间里，全国范围内连续发生了六起恶意侵害校园师生安全的事件，虽然犯罪者的身份及造成的结果各不相同，但犯罪的方式、过程、侵害对象都具有高度的相似性，我们不得不怀疑新闻媒体对此类事件详细逼真的描述使得部分怀有报复心理的人受到启发进而模仿犯罪。因此，报复社会事件的危害性不仅仅在于事件对社会产生的现时性威胁，还在于其引起的示范效应。

▍结语 Conclusion

If inequality and violence hidden in daily life pervade society, over time, the naturalization of violence will occur, which is caused by the fixation of the abnormal structure. As Collins put it, "There are no violent individuals, only violent situations." The emotions and behaviors of individuals are shaped by social situations. Even those who seem extremely violent are only violent in specific times and spaces. That is to say, although background conditions such as social structure, social transformation, social tension, and individual characteristics can explain the fundamental motives of human social behaviors, they are far from explaining the core motives of sudden violent situations. The extreme violent situations of individuals are shaped by tense and angry emotions, and the essence of retaliating against society is the product of the emotional field.

如果社会中充满了隐匿于日常生活中的不平等与暴力，久而久之就会形成暴力的自然化，这是由于畸形结构的固定化导致的。正如柯林斯的观点，“没有暴力的个体，只有暴力的情景”，个体的情绪和行为是由社会情境塑造的，即使是那些看起来非常暴力的人群，也只是在特定的时空中才是暴力的。也就是说社会结构、社会转型、社会紧张、个体的特质等背景条件虽然可以解释人类社会行为根本性动机，但是距离解释突发暴力情境的核心动机还很远，个体极端的暴力情境是由紧张与愤怒的情绪塑造而成的，报复社会的本质是情绪场域的产物。

The occurrence of individual retaliating against society incidents is not accidental. From experiencing exclusion to causing emotional distortion, from the accumulation of resentment to the final retaliatory struggle, individuals go through a long process. Therefore, for the early warning and prevention and control of such incidents, the old notions of "sudden" and "accidental" must be discarded, and the concept of process control should be established:

个体报复社会事件的发生并非偶然，个体从遭遇排斥到引起情感畸变，怨气积蓄再到最终的报复抗争，经历了一个漫长的过程，因此对于此类事件的预警与防控必须摒弃“突发”“偶然”的陈旧观念，树立过程控制的理念:

First of all, structural risks that are likely to cause such incidents should be eliminated at the source. Promote social fairness and justice, further promote the construction of socialist democracy and the rule of law, and the construction of people's livelihood with employment, medical care, education, social security, etc. as the main contents, narrow the gap between different strata, and ensure that every social member can share the fruits of economic development.

首先，要从源头上消除容易引起此类事件的结构性风险。促进社会公平正义，深入推进社会主义民主法治建设和以就业、医疗、教育、社会保障等为主要内容的民生建设，缩小阶层差距，保障每一个社会成员都能共享经济发展的成果。

Secondly, establish a social safety valve system to mitigate the damage of risks. Improve the channels for expressing the interests and needs of vulnerable groups, and the state should respond in a timely manner according to their needs, which will help vulnerable groups get out of difficulties and relieve social tension.

其次，建立社会安全阀体系，减轻风险损害。完善弱势群体的利益与需求表达渠道，国家根据其需要适时作出回应，有助于帮助弱势群体脱离困境，缓解社会张力。

Finally, establish and improve the social catharsis and buffer mechanism for marginal groups, suppress and relieve hatred and angry emotions, focus on resolving the social dilemmas and individual anxieties brought about by modernity, enter the living world, emotional world, and mental world of marginalized people, and seek balance and harmony at the level of flexible governance while maintaining the stability of the rigid social structure and the stretching of the elastic social mentality.

最后，建立完善边缘群体的社会宣泄与缓冲机制，抑制、纾解仇恨心理与愤怒情绪，着力化解现代性带来的社会困局与个体焦虑，走进边缘人群的生活世界、情感世界与心态世界，在维持刚性社会结构的稳定与弹性社会心态的舒展中，寻求柔性治理层面上的平衡与和谐。

I remember when Bo Xilai was still a minister, I received a handwritten congratulatory letter from them, so I kept it. This is a blog (Lat.blogbus.com), wrote at that time, which is still quite interesting now. Character of the Minister of the PRC "I can't see through this politics, but I heard that handwriting can tell a person's character. I didn't expect that everyone in the world can see this.

In English, character has two interpretations: personality and handwriting. The politics couldn't be seen through, but its character testify to its own character."

记得他（中文发表时候隐藏了薄熙来）还是部长的时候，接到他们发来的亲笔签名贺信，于是我便把他给留下来了，这是当时写的一篇博客大巴的博客大海报(Lat.blogbus.com)的文章,现在看来也挺有趣的 ”共和国部长的character“ 这政治我是看不透了。不过听说字可以相人，没想到这点世界上的人都看出来了。

在英文中，Character有两个解释：人品和字　The politics couldn't been seen through,　but its character testify to its own character.”

You can easily notice that the promotional slogans of various cities in China are like playing a big permutation and combination. Everyone likes "reform and innovation, openness and harmony" very much because "innovation" is of great importance. It's okay as long as there is a slight difference.

However, there is a particular region that is being a bit unruly – with its slogan of "mountains upon mountains, waters upon waters, and deep affection and strong loyalty".

你可以很容易的发现，中国各个城市的宣传口号就是在玩一个大的排列组合，大家都很喜欢“改革创新、开放和谐”，因为“创新”很重要的，一定要稍有区别还行。

偏偏有个地区又滋毛——重山重水，重情重义

Why is everything so different? If you don't like to follow the rules, we can't really welcome you. Chinese people only like "innovation" and not "personality"

Then come the public criticism, cleverly use the cute news to poke the interests of a large part of the masses. If you don't feel guilty, you may not think of drowning with spit. China's fourth magic weapon is always considered the first.

Why put him in Chongqing? It seems that he has the temperament of the National Army who grew up here.

哪儿哪儿都这么不一样？不喜欢按规则来，我们是不能够真心欢迎的。中国人只喜欢“创新”不喜欢“个性”

然后再来个千夫所指，巧妙地用可爱的新闻刺中很大部分群众的兴趣点。不心虚也不一定不会想到用唾沫淹死，中国的第四大法宝，始终认为是第一大。

为什么把人放到重庆，好像他倒是很有这里生长过的国军气质。

Since childhood, I have remembered this conversation on the battlefield （Films produced by the Communist Party of China）that showed various qualities such as the narrow-mindedness of the Kuomintang troops. At that time, they were in a state of rout. A wounded soldier grabbed the leg of another fleeing soldier and pleaded, "For the sake of the Party and the country, give me a hand, brother!" But with a flick of the wrist, the grabbed soldier walked away without looking back. Originally, it was meant to illustrate that faith is the most reliable thing and that human feelings can be so indifferent. However, since ancient times, the Chinese people have always emphasized the two words "loyalty" and "righteousness". At the critical moment of life and death, between comrades and brothers, I still prefer the latter.

从小便记得这句表现国军的狭隘等种种品质的在战场上的对话（中国内地电影），当时正在溃退，一名受伤士兵抓住另外一个逃跑士兵的腿“看在党国的份上，拉兄弟一把吧！”结果一个甩手，被抓的士兵扬长而去。本是为了说明信仰才是最可靠的，人情淡薄便淡薄了。可中国自古讲究情义二字，生死关头同志和兄弟，我还是更喜欢后者。

Yesterday, it was still the people of this city who gathered a hundred thousand people in recent days.

However, regarding this city slogan that ultimately didn't get selected but actually received the most votes in people's hearts -

"Stacked mountains and waters, profound feelings and strong loyalty." (Here, "Stacked mountains and waters" is used to translate "重山重水" in a way that tries to convey the sense of multiple layers or abundance of mountains and waters, and "profound feelings and strong loyalty" is used to translate "重情重义" to show the depth of emotions and the strength of loyalty.)

How should we look at it?

昨天，还是这个城市（重庆）的人民这几天聚集了十万人。

可是对着这最终没有入选的，其实得票最多的，心中便就是这么认为的城市口号——

重山重水，重情重义

来说？

（Bo Xilai is a Chinese former politician who was convicted on bribery and embezzlement charges.）

The original text was released with attention to the latitude of 29°56′N on April 12th, 2011. 原文发布时间并关注纬度于 29°56′N Apr 12th 2011

编者按：本文始发于2021年8月15日塔利班占领喀布尔之际，后因不明原因被多次删除。现于Mirror留存。作者真实影像邱嘉秋。

1975年，刚攻入金边的“红色高棉”，跟几天前占领喀布尔的塔利班，都选择了的“白旗”来标志胜利...

In 1975, the "Khmer Rouge", which had just captured Phnom Penh, just like the Taliban who had occupied Kabul a few days ago, both chose the "white flag" to mark their victory...

与现实相比，1984年上映的电影《杀戮之地 The Killing Fields》，其命名太过温和。

故事发生1972年美军在越南溃败而撤离柬埔寨之际，《纽约时报》记者辛尼（萨姆·沃特森 饰）留在当地继续采访。1975年，红色高棉占领金边。辛尼全身而退，他的助手和翻译柬埔寨人潘迪（吴汉润  饰，史上首位获得奥斯卡表演奖的华人 ）被迫留下接受劳动改造，这期间，潘迪目睹了红色高棉政权的残暴血腥。1978年，越共入侵柬埔寨，潘迪趁机逃亡到泰国边境，与辛尼重逢。

这部电影，源于真实。

Compared with reality, the title of the movie "The Killing Fields" released in 1984 is too mild.

The story takes place when the U.S. military was routed and withdrew from Cambodia in 1972. Sydney Hillel Schanberg, a reporter from The New York Times (played by Sam Waterston), stayed there to continue his interviews. In 1975, the Khmer Rouge occupied Phnom Penh. Sydney managed to get out safely, while his assistant and translator, Cambodian Dith Pran (played by Haing S. Ngor, the first Chinese to win an Oscar for acting in history), was forced to stay and undergo labor reform. During this period, Dith Pran witnessed the brutality and bloodshed of the Khmer Rouge regime. In 1978, the Viet Cong invaded Cambodia, and Dith Pran took the opportunity to flee to the Thai border and reunited with Sydney.

This movie is based on a true story.

真实世界中，辛尼·希勒尔·尚伯格（Sydney Hillel Schanberg）就是一位曾供职《纽约时报》的美国记者，以报道柬埔寨战争而闻名，曾获普利策奖和两次乔治·波尔克奖。

1980 年，他根据其亲身报道而出版的纪实文学著作《迪斯·普兰的死与生》讲述了他的同事迪斯·普兰（潘迪 Dith Pran）在红色高棉政权中为生存而进行的斗争。

In the real world, Sydney Hillel Schanberg was an American journalist who worked for The New York Times and was famous for reporting on the Cambodian War. He won the Pulitzer Prize and two George Polk Awards.

In 1980, he published a non-fiction literary work titled "The Death and Life of Dith Pran" based on his personal reports, which told the story of his colleague Dith Pran's struggle for survival in the Khmer Rouge regime.

演员布鲁斯·罗宾逊将其改编成一部300页的剧本，找到了1982年奥斯卡最佳影片《火战车》制片人大卫·普特南。这时，一个名不见经传的导演罗兰·约菲打动了制片人。罗兰·约菲告诉普特南，他不想只拍一部简单的战争片，而是通过战火与屠杀、恐怖与血腥讲述一个有希望的故事。如导演所言，电影最终大获成功，并拿下1985年度奥斯卡最佳影片的提名，以及最佳摄影、最佳剪辑、最佳男配角三项大奖。

Actor Bruce Robinson adapted it into a 300-page script and found David Puttnam, the producer of the 1982 Oscar-winning best picture "Chariots of Fire". At that time, an unknown director, Roland Joffé, impressed the producer. Roland Joffé told Puttnam that he didn't want to just make a simple war movie, but to tell a hopeful story through war, slaughter, horror, and bloodshed. As the director said, the movie was ultimately a great success, winning nominations for the 1985 Oscar for Best Picture, as well as three major awards for Best Cinematography, Best Editing, and Best Supporting Actor.

影片结尾所根据的，两人难民营相遇并谈起经历时，潘迪脱口而出：“杀戮之地 the killing fields ”，用以形容他在逃亡路上所见大屠杀抛尸之地，后来这个词成为电影的片名，然而，“杀戮之地“ 却无法代表全部的苦难。

At the end of the movie, when the two met in the refugee camp and talked about their experiences, Dith Pran blurted out: "the killing fields", to describe the places where he saw massacres and corpses being dumped on his way of escape. Later, this term became the title of the movie. However, "the killing fields" cannot represent all the sufferings.

红色高棉们的野望 The Wild Ambitions of the Khmer Rouge

红色高棉不过三年的血腥统治，留下了柬埔寨几代人的噩梦，更是人类文明史上最漆黑的污点之一。

上世纪六十年代末，美国扩大印度支那战争，轰炸柬埔寨，红色高棉（后柬埔寨共产党）率先举起反美大旗，在国内赢得了广泛支持。

进入七十年代，在中国领导人的促成下，西哈努克和“红色高棉”摒弃前嫌，携手抗美，结成抗美救国统一战线，推翻了美国政府所扶持的朗诺政权，赶跑了美国人，建立了“民主柬埔寨”。

The bloody rule of the Khmer Rouge, which lasted only three years, left a nightmare for several generations of Cambodians and is one of the darkest stains in the history of human civilization.

In the late 1960s, the United States expanded the Indochina War and bombed Cambodia. The Khmer Rouge (the later Communist Party of Cambodia) was the first to raise the anti-American flag and won widespread support in the country.

In the 1970s, with the facilitation of Chinese leaders, Norodom Sihanouk and the "Khmer Rouge" put aside their differences and joined hands to resist the United States, forming a united front against the United States and saving the nation, overthrowing the Lon Nol regime supported by the U.S. government, driving away the Americans, and establishing the "Democratic Kampuchea".

剧中，美军从柬埔寨仓皇撤退。现实中，辛尼在《纽约时报》写到，“很难想象随着美国人的离开，他们的生活会变得更好。”

金边迎来了李闯王，就在百姓以为战争结束，期待和平时，如辛尼等人保持了一定的警惕：

In the movie, the U.S. military retreated in a hurry from Cambodia. In reality, Sydney wrote in The New York Times, "It's hard to imagine that their lives would get better with the Americans leaving.

"Phnom Penh welcomed the "Li Zicheng" (a figure often used to refer to someone who seizes power suddenly and brings chaos). Just when the people thought the war was over and were looking forward to peace, people like Sydney remained somewhat vigilant:

果然，“和平”的假象只持续了极短的时间，崇尚极左的红色高棉领导人波尔布特违背了在毛主席面前许下的承诺，摒弃了同盟和联合执政，软禁了西哈努克，采取独裁统治，启动了自己想象中乌托邦式革命理想国的人间试验，希望一揽子解决所有问题，建立一个比苏联、中国和越南都更为纯粹的社会/共产主义社会，一个“没有富人和穷人，没有剥削阶级和被剥削阶级，全体人民幸福生活”的国度。

除了马上现形的苛政和AK47，动员、说服、教育、限制、利用、改造和赎买等具有“过渡时期”特征的政策在红色高棉和第一次统治阿富汗时期的塔利班身上都是几乎看不到的， 红色高棉认为“大跃进”的速度都不够快。

Sure enough, the illusion of "peace" lasted only a very short time. Pol Pot, the leader of the Khmer Rouge who advocated extreme leftism, broke the promise he made in front of Chairman Mao, abandoned the alliance and joint governance, placed Norodom Sihanouk under house arrest, adopted a dictatorial rule, and launched his own utopian revolutionary ideal country experiment in his imagination, hoping to solve all problems in one go and establish a society more pure than those of the Soviet Union, China, and Vietnam, a "country where there are no rich or poor people, no exploiting or exploited classes, and all the people live a happy life".

Except for the immediate appearance of harsh governance and AK47s, policies with "transitional period" characteristics such as mobilization, persuasion, education, restriction, utilization, transformation, and redemption were hardly seen in either the Khmer Rouge or the Taliban during their first rule in Afghanistan. The Khmer Rouge thought that the speed of the "Great Leap Forward" was not fast enough.

波尔布特强迫全国执行“城市大清空”和“平民下乡农耕”，试图建立一个自给自足的农业共产社会。他强制几乎全部城市居民迁至农村务农，废除货币，取消私有财产，禁止上学及参与宗教活动，甚至取消夫妻关系，强制拆散家庭。

在曾经佛教盛行的柬埔寨，通过一连串的强制劳动、内部清洗、集中营、劳改、政治迫害及大屠杀等恐怖统治，致使在1975年至1978年的3年8个月的时间里，造成柬埔寨约200万人死亡（至今未有公认的准确数字），此人数约等于当时全国人口的四分之一。彼时的柬埔寨，堪称现实的人间炼狱。

Pol Pot forced the whole country to carry out "urban evacuation" and "transfer of civilians to the countryside for farming", attempting to establish a self-sufficient agricultural communist society. He forced almost all urban residents to move to the countryside to engage in farming, abolished currency, cancelled private property, prohibited going to school and participating in religious activities, and even cancelled marital relations, forcibly breaking up families.

In Cambodia, where Buddhism once prevailed, through a series of terror reigns such as forced labor, internal purges, concentration camps, labor reform, political persecution, and massacres, during the three years and eight months from 1975 to 1978, about 2 million Cambodians died (there is still no generally recognized accurate figure to date), which was approximately a quarter of the national population at that time. Cambodia at that time was truly a living hell on earth.

1978年，红色高棉建立的民主柬埔寨政权被十万越南大军和自己倒戈的军队推翻。当时仍然承认红高棉政权为柬埔寨的合法政府的中国，与苏联展开对峙，在1979年2月对越南发动“对越反击战”，侧面延缓了红色高棉的消亡。邓小平也借机稳固了国内政治地位，裁军百万，全力推动改革开放。

In 1978, the "Democratic Kampuchea" regime established by the Khmer Rouge was overthrown by 100,000 Vietnamese troops and their own defecting troops. At that time, China, which still recognized the Khmer Rouge regime as the legitimate government of Cambodia, confronted the Soviet Union and launched a "Counter-attack against Vietnam" in February 1979, which indirectly delayed the demise of the Khmer Rouge. Deng Xiaoping also took the opportunity to stabilize his domestic political position, disarmed one million troops, and fully promoted reform and opening up.

有评论说，红色高棉的迅速崛起又马上衰败，是人类二十世纪全球极左运动的浓缩版和强化版，为后人剖析这场人类历史上波及面最广、参与人数最多的运动，提供了惨痛却有代表性的素材。

这些运动的共同特点，就是否认现实尘世生活的意义和目的，否认物质主义和享乐主义，代之以清教徒般的道德自律和近乎苛刻的简朴，并赋予精神世界以最高价值和地位。这些运动的发起者、号召者们，总是给人们描绘一幅十全十美的未来世界的理想画卷，并号召人们为了这个美好的未来世界奋斗终身，抛弃眼前的幸福和世俗的欢乐。

而达到这个理想世界的途径和手段，这些运动也有惊人的一致性，就是以阶级为线进行大规模社会重构。直到今天，这样的运动仍在伺机循环上演。

Some commentators say that the rapid rise and immediate decline of the Khmer Rouge is a condensed and intensified version of the extreme left-wing movements in the 20th century globally, providing painful yet representative materials for later generations to analyze this movement with the widest spread and the largest number of participants in human history.

The common characteristics of these movements are to deny the meaning and purpose of real earthly life, deny materialism and hedonism, replace them with Puritan-like moral self-discipline and almost harsh simplicity, and 赋予 the spiritual world the highest value and status. The initiators and mobilizers of these movements always depict a perfect future world ideal picture for people and call on people to strive for this beautiful future world for life, abandoning the immediate happiness and worldly joys.

And the ways and means to reach this ideal world also have astonishing consistency among these movements, that is, to carry out large-scale social reconstruction based on class. To this day, such movements are still waiting for opportunities to recur.

局外人的战争 The War of Outsiders

《杀戮之地》还是一部有明显他者视角来观察亚洲的西方影片，作为中国观众，我们更有复杂的民族记忆交织在其间，然而，一些抛却意识形态的人性闪光点，仍得以在漆黑的历史中保存。

要知道，作为影片的主角，包括在其改编源头的纪实文学《迪斯·普兰的死与生》书中，都不可避免地会被戏剧性美化或英雄化，但一些基本事实也是难以虚构的。例如，辛尼获得新闻奖的作品：

"The Killing Fields" is also a Western movie that observes Asia from an obvious other's perspective. As Chinese audiences, we have more complex national memories intertwined in it. However, some flashes of human nature that transcend ideology have still been preserved in the dark history.

It should be noted that as the protagonists of the movie, including in the non-fiction literary work "The Death and Life of Dith Pran" which is the source of its adaptation, they will inevitably be dramatized, beautified or heroized, but some basic facts are also hard to fabricate. For example, Sydney's award-winning journalistic works:

他们第一时间报道了美国对柬东部毁灭性的轰炸，作为真正的记者，没有先入为主的观点，是不为任何利益集团服务的，甚至也无关国籍。这位来自美国的记者，在影片开始的片段里，没有和大部分“主流”记者团）同流，而独立揭露了美军试图掩盖的误炸柬埔寨平民的行径，在过程中甚至还试图保护被作为替罪羊的两名“红色高棉”士兵。当然，在在大屠杀发生后，他们也一样会被指责。

They were the first to report the devastating bombing of eastern Cambodia by the United States. As true journalists, they had no preconceived views and did not serve any interest groups, not even related to nationality. This American journalist, in the opening segment of the movie, did not go along with the majority of the "mainstream" journalist group, but independently exposed the U.S. military's attempt to cover up the accidental bombing of Cambodian civilians, and even tried to protect two "Khmer Rouge" soldiers who were used as scapegoats during the process. Of course, they would also be accused after the massacres occurred.

辛尼没有在功成名就时，选择继续消费苦难。

乘船外逃那些难民会写吗？在得到否认后，辛尼说：“你是在寻找一种好卖的苦难么？尽可能自私地揣测，这或许也是一种妥当的策略，反正最好的故事他已经写完了。

或许不同，消费苦难的报道，在今天的新闻媒体间比比皆是；绝对不可否认，很多记者也是为了诸如难民的境况得到关注而获得帮助；而辛尼的看法，在今天看来该如何回应呢？

Sydney did not choose to continue to capitalize on the suffering after achieving fame and success.

Would the refugees who fled by boat write about it? After getting a negative answer, Sydney said: "Are you looking for a marketable kind of suffering? As selfishly speculated as possible, this might also be a proper strategy. Anyway, the best story he has already written."

Perhaps it's different. Reports that capitalize on suffering are everywhere in today's news media; it is absolutely undeniable that many journalists also do it so that the situation of refugees can get attention and help; but how should we respond to Sydney's view today?

而辛尼所依托的也不仅仅是作为一个个人或职业的理想。

And what Sydney relied on was not just the ideals of an individual or a profession.

在此前，政界人士、新闻界和学生对美军的入侵发起了大规模的抗议活动。1970年12月，针对国防拨款法案而提出的《库珀-丘奇修正案》（Cooper-Church Amendment）禁止在老挝或柬埔寨动用任何的美国地面部队，正是片中辛尼对美国军队高声质问的依据之一。

Previously, politicians, the press, and students launched large-scale protest activities against the U.S. military's invasion. In December 1970, the "Cooper-Church Amendment" proposed in response to the Defense Appropriation Bill prohibited the use of any U.S. ground troops in Laos or Cambodia, which was one of the bases for Sydney's loud questioning of the U.S. military in the movie.

假象源于假想 Illusions Stem from Assumptions

波尔布特们，始终自认为是纯粹的“理想主义者”，他们的使命无比光荣，为柬埔寨人民而着想，追求主义的信念是终极的依托。

要提到的是，包括《杀戮之地》这部电影，其改编来源的纪实文学、报道和故事中的真实人物，以及更多我们今天所了解到有关红色高棉大屠杀的信息主要是由西方媒体和学者的工作所提供，西方也还力主援建柬埔寨审红特别法庭（Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia，ECCC）被称为柬埔寨的“纽伦堡大审”，自2006年至 2021 年15年来已耗费3.3亿美元，红高棉政权“2号人物”谢农、红高棉外交部长英萨利及其妻英蒂丽（前社会福利部长），在审讯过程中相继病逝。

西方意识形态在整体事件定性过程中的位置公正性曾被一类声音质疑，例如美国在对柬埔寨进行轰炸的过程中造成的较大人员伤亡（有说法从数十万到百万不等）是否混淆于红色高棉大屠杀中。

Pol Pot and his ilk always considered themselves pure "idealists", believing that their mission was extremely glorious, that they were thinking for the Cambodian people, and that the pursuit of their ideology was their ultimate reliance.

It should be mentioned that including the movie "The Killing Fields", the real people in the non-fiction literary works, reports, and stories from which it was adapted, as well as more information we know today about the Khmer Rouge massacres, were mainly provided by the work of Western media and scholars. The West also advocated and assisted in the construction of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC), which is known as the "Nuremberg Trials" of Cambodia. From 2006 to 2021, 15 years have cost $330 million. Khieu Samphan, the "No. 2 figure" of the Khmer Rouge regime, Ieng Sary, the foreign minister of the Khmer Rouge, and his wife Ieng Thirith (former minister of social welfare), successively died of illness during the trial process.

The impartiality of the Western ideology in the process of defining the nature of the whole event has been questioned by some voices. For example, whether the relatively large number of casualties caused by the U.S. bombing of Cambodia (with estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to a million) was confused with the Khmer Rouge massacres.

即使如此，红色高棉的大屠杀仍然是基本事实，而其实对于波尔布特的共产理念，早期在西方也有不同声音：1976年，两名康奈尔大学教授撰写《柬埔寨——饥饿与革命》（Cambodia：Starvation andRevolution）一书中认为，媒体报道不全面，合作化、撤空城市和大规模集体劳动，是柬埔寨独特的解决粮食问题的办法。在大屠杀被披露后，麻省理工学院的乔姆斯基（Noam Chomsky）表示他怀疑其真实性，因为这些材料的提供者都是反红色高棉的难民。

Even so, the Khmer Rouge massacres are still a basic fact. And in fact, there were different voices in the West regarding Pol Pot's communist ideology in the early days: In 1976, two professors from Cornell University wrote in the book "Cambodia: Starvation and Revolution" that the media reports were not comprehensive and that cooperation, evacuation of cities, and large-scale collective labor were unique ways for Cambodia to solve the food problem. After the massacres were disclosed, Noam Chomsky from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology expressed his doubts about their authenticity because the providers of these materials were all anti-Khmer Rouge refugees.

在当今世界，每个国家和组织都在尽皆自我标榜正义的相互争斗中，我们到底可以相信谁？

不过，大体可以确定，我们应该不会再一次相信那些善于编造谎言，甚至连自己都能骗倒的“红色高棉们”。

In today's world, in the mutual struggles where every country and organization is self-proclaiming justice, whom can we really believe?

However, generally speaking, we should probably not believe those "Khmer Rouge" who are good at fabricating lies and can even deceive themselves again.

题外 Digression

饰演《纽约时报》记者辛尼的萨姆·沃特森 ( Sam Waterston )在多年之后，在美剧《新闻编辑室 Newsroom》中饰演了一位媒体总编，最后，在现实和新闻理想矛盾交织下，心脏并发猝死。

片中，Will说，他试图去和这个道德崩坏的世界交战，他就像是堂吉诃德，堂吉诃德最终从骑士梦中醒来，回到家乡，但是Charlie（萨姆·沃特森 饰）依然在坚持，只是他坚持不住了，他太累了。

Sam Waterston, who played Sydney Hillel Schanberg, a reporter from The New York Times, played a media editor-in-chief in the American TV drama "The Newsroom" many years later. Finally, under the intertwined contradictions between reality and journalistic ideals, he died suddenly of a heart attack.

In the drama, Will said that he tried to fight against this morally corrupt world. He was like Don Quixote. Don Quixote finally woke up from his knight's dream and returned home, but Charlie (played by Sam Waterston) was still holding on, only he couldn't hold on any longer. He was too tired.

**摘要: **随着人类社会现代化进程的不断推进，社会的复杂性也不断加深，复杂社会的特性包括社会高度分工、需求的多样性、信息的分散化，以及大城市经济和人口结构的复杂性等。在复杂社会的背景下，突发性公共危机给城市治理带来了新的不确定性和挑战。应对城市公共危机，需要坚持充分发挥市场与社会作用、强化法治引领、坚守人文和道德底线、回应多样化需求等基本原则，同时在应急保障体系建设、危机影响预判、外来人口友好等多方面探索新的治理举措。找到有效应对公共危机的方案，大城市将能在挫折中改善治理，并更好地引领国家的高质量发展。

**作者简介: **陆铭，上海交通大学中国发展研究院、中国城市治理研究院

本文作者：陆铭

在人类社会的现代化进程中，城市不断经历挫折，但也越挫越勇。当前，中国经济和社会发展的现代化水平不断提高，与此同时也迎来了复杂社会的时代。复杂社会建立在不同企业和人群高度分工的基础之上，需求的多样性和服务的个性化要求越来越高，社会运行的信息也日益复杂且分散化。尤其是在国际化大都市，经济和人口结构的复杂性更加非同寻常。在这种复杂社会背景下，一旦出现城市公共危机，就会给城市治理带来巨大挑战。自2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，如何改善城市治理及如何应对公共危机，成为在理论和实践层面都需要深入探讨的问题。因此，本文拟从复杂社会的特性入手，提出应对城市公共危机的若干原则，并在此基础上系统性地提出未来应对城市公共危机的若干举措。之后本文针对后疫情时期大城市发展的几点困惑进行梳理，从而在不确定性的环境之下，寻找确定性的城市发展逻辑。

复杂社会的危机及其特性

经济的现代化过程是人类社会从农业社会发展到工业社会再进一步进入到后工业化社会，社会的复杂度越来越高。在复杂社会，公共危机也表现出新的特性。

第一，复杂社会是建立在社会高度分工的基础之上的。不同的企业和不同的人群，通过高度深化的分工构成产业链上下游关系，或者产业间、企业间的投入产出关系。经济的现代化程度越高，不同企业和人群之间的分工合作关系越复杂，而且不同的城市也将形成复杂的城市网络，不同规模的城市会根据各自不同的条件，形成各具特色的产业。根据笔者对于城市车流大数据的研究发现，中国已经形成了城市群一体化发展的空间格局，中心城市辐射带动城市群内其他城市共同发展的格局已经非常清晰，而且中心城市的辐射力也随着到中心城市距离的增加而衰减。在这样的复杂社会里，由疫情等因素产生的公共危机，可能通过不同城市之间的经济联系而产生放大效应。尤其是当公共危机发生在中心城市的时候，中心城市的作用越强，公共危机波及其它城市的程度也越高。

第二，需求的多样性和服务的个性化。在后工业化时期，消费在经济增长中所占的比重越来越高。而且，随着消费的升级，工业品的需求日趋饱和，服务消费在消费中所占的比重持续提高。工业品的生产往往具有标准化的特点，而且工业品的生产和消费可以在时空上相互分离。与此相比，服务业的生产往往具有非标准化的特点，消费者对于服务的需求呈现出多样性和个性化的趋势，而且服务的生产和消费通常是在同一个时空之内面对面完成的。越是大城市，服务在经济发展中的占比越高，生产服务业为自身和其它城市的制造业赋能，消费服务业则更多地满足人民多样化个性化的需求。在疫情冲击之下，服务业受到的影响巨大，尤其是生活服务业高度依赖面对面的场景，受到的冲击尤其严重，既影响相关从业人员的就业和收入，又影响城市居民的生活质量。此外，疫情还使得城市居民被迫摆脱生活服务（如家政、餐饮），转向自我或家庭生产，进一步影响了城市居民的劳动生产率。

第三，经济高度现代化的一个重要表现是信息的分散化。信息复杂化是复杂社会的本质，而且复杂的信息高度分散在企业、个体和各类组织机构中。在常态情况下，市场经济就是一个精密构造、不断调整的处理信息机制。不仅如此，常态下的市场与政府共同协作，政府对于市场经济中出现的问题进行规制，并且往往采取自上而下的行政手段。市场经济的复杂化、个性化和地区之间的差异化，往往与自上而下容易一刀切的行政管理存在矛盾，而信息的分散化，则加剧了这种矛盾。疫情冲击之下，市场机制在不同程度停摆，常态下的市场—政府关系被打破，信息分散化对行政力量主导的危机治理模式构成了巨大挑战。

第四，国际化大都市经济、社会和人口的复杂性。社会高度分工、需求的多样性、信息的分散化这三方面复杂社会的特征在大城市表现得尤为突出，具体体现在国际化大都市的经济和人口复杂性方面。以上海为例，其经济中心功能在很大程度上体现为在长三角城市群、全国甚至世界范围内产业链中的核心地位。在社会方面，超大城市具有保障和生活服务两大功能。具体来说，上海承担着全市乃至全国的医疗及延伸出来的服务“生老病死”的功能。超大城市要运转，能源、水、交通等缺一不可。常态情况下，现代化的超大城市具有发达的市场，相关行业的商超、物流和人员能够保障物资和服务需求，同时基层社区服务对于保障城市运转也具有不可替代的支撑作用。但在疫情冲击下，市场机制和社会管理均受到巨大冲击，城市还需要在物资保障、紧急救助等方面应对大量突发需求。此外，经济和社会的复杂性也伴随着人口结构的复杂性。上海有 40% 的常住人口是非本地户籍人员，他们中的许多人流动性强、收入不高，这部分人员很多是受疫情冲击较大的服务行业工作人员。以笔者长期关心的家政服务行业为例，该行业从业人员的收入在3月时已经大幅度下降，4—5月封控期间收入基本归零。上海的老龄化程度非常严重，大量老年人口有照护、就医需求；上海还是一个外籍人口数量庞大的国际化大都市，其中不少是领馆工作人员或跨国企业的管理人员。

在复杂社会之下，城市面临着自公共危机带来的巨大不确定性，甚至陷入紧急状态。本文所指的紧急状态同时具有四个特征：第一，冲击是全域的，而非局部的；第二，冲击是有一定持续性的，而非短暂的，超过地震、台风、洪涝等自然灾害；第三，人流和物流基本停滞；第四，生产和生活的核心功能受到冲击。在现代人类社会，除了战争和社会骚乱之外，只有传染性极强的疫情同时符合上述特征。如果在此情况下，存在管理缺陷和次生灾害，则有可能使得紧急状态的负面影响成倍放大，最终酿成严重的城市公共危机，笔者将之总结为如下公式：

城市公共危机程度＝紧急状态（全域的＋持续的＋切断人流物流＋冲击核心功能）×（管理缺陷＋次生灾害）

为了应对复杂社会中的公共危机，需要考虑到复杂社会的特性，从而在不确定性中探求确定性。在具体讨论应对危机的方案之前，笔者尝试提出四个原则：

第一，在任何应对危机的方案中，都不能忽视市场与社会的作用。一旦离开市场和社会的作用，单独靠行政力量无法应对各种复杂的情况，甚至有可能产生意想不到的后果，引发次生灾害。第二，法治在应对危机中要起到引领作用。即便在常态情况下，复杂社会的各方利益协调都是一个巨大的工程，存在着各种各样的不确定性。在城市出现公共危机的时候，市场和社会相对退后，行政力量被前置，常态下的各种利益协调机制被改变。此时，社会公众将面临更大的不确定性，各类主体的行动协调需要建立新的信念，而这个信念只能来自于法治，因为法治是建立在最大多数人的最基本共识之上的。反之，如果离开法治，短期内应对危机的行动协调将变得更加困难，人们将失去行动的准则；而在长期内，则有可能会破坏社会公众对于法治的信心。第三，法律条文以及政策规定永远不可能穷尽所有的状况，而复杂社会尤其在紧急状态之下出现的很多状况，更是事先难以预期的。因此，在法治之外，人文与道德永远是另外一条重要的防线，可以为社会各类主体相互协调行动提供稳定预期，也可以在特定场景下使得各种复杂状况所产生的后果不至于击穿人文和道德的底线，产生无法被社会公众接受的后果。第四，复杂社会应对危机的方案也要有对多样性需求的回应。既然人口的多样性和需求的多样性是一个无法回避的现实状况，那么，应对危机的方案无论在事前、事中还是事后，都有必要回应多样化的需求；而在行政力量更加注重标准化应对方案的情况下，市场机制和社会组织可以发挥行政力量所不能替代的作用。

应对城市公共危机的举措

自2020年初以来，新冠肺炎疫情对我国多座城市形成了冲击，也暴露了城市在应对公共危机时存在的很多问题。笔者基于对复杂社会的特性的认识，尝试系统性地从九个方面提出在紧急状态下应对城市公共危机的举措。

（一）应急领导机制：统一指挥和协调

统筹协调的应急领导机制应包括：有相关专家参与的决策机制、分级的管控措施体系、法律咨询委员会。其中，建立紧急状态下城市管控措施的分级体系需通过地方人大立法，提前设置触发一定管控级别的科学标准。每个级别的应急机制如何定义、如何触发、包含哪些具体内容，均应在事前予以明确。

法律咨询委员会的作用是保证相关举措的出台严格置于法律框架之下，避免应急状态下的行政违法。如出现相关举措与既有法律法规之间存在矛盾和冲突，确有需要应获得全国人大常委会授权并由地方人大常委会出台相关法律规定。

在紧急状态下，应急领导机制应充分发挥统筹协调功能，尽可能避免以“战争动员”的形式在短时间内将公权力下放至基层，这容易导致基层组织各自为政、以邻为壑的局面，甚至可能降低城市应急的反应速度和有效性。城市要建立统一的应急管理体制，由市委、市政府主要领导统一部署，相关专家参与。要确保物资保供、物流畅通、场地征用、政策制定等方面做到统筹协调，避免政出多门和条块分割。基层、公安等部门的权限边界应在人大常委会授权的范围内有明确的边界，严格规范行政和执法流程。

（二）应急预案完善：兼顾一致和细致

在应急预案的制定过程中，考虑到全国层面的共性特征，可由中央政府提供应急预案的统一模板，但也需要给地方政府留有灵活的空间，以充分兼顾每个地方面临紧急状况的差异和地方各种条件的差异。

例如，上海作为一个人口众多的直辖市，常态情况下实施两级政府、三级管理、四级网格。其中，街镇一级政府在城市管理中发挥着巨大作用。在上海的应急方案中，应更好发挥街镇政府在上传下达以及对接居民需求、解决“急难愁盼”等方面的作用。上海在医务人员、技术人员、管理人员等方面的专业化、国际化程度非常高，可以为应急方案的制定提供有价值的意见。再如，在高度开放的上海，海陆空三个方向均有门户口岸。在应对重大传染性疫情时，针对不同的传染性疾病特征，应由医务工作者参与，制定科学方案，包括对不同口岸的防控程序和措施，以最低的代价达到最有效防止疫情输入和扩散的效果。

（三）应急保障队伍：加强稳定和专业

城市生活看似平淡无奇，实际即使在日常生活中，也存在着不同人的不同需求，危机之下，需求的多样性更是难以得到满足，为此需要一支能够深入社区的应急保障队伍。应急保障队伍的构成，既可以是现有的民兵和预备役人员，也可以包含一些社区、社会组织以及志愿者，还可与一些能够深入社区最后100米的生活服务类企业进行合作，特别是和家政服务和外卖快递企业合作，发挥其熟悉社区的优势。

要对应急保障队伍常态化地进行技术、管理、法律和人文培训。尤其要重视开展法律和人文关怀方面的培训，加强相关人员在紧急情况下应对特殊需求的能力，既能操作规范守法，又能灵活掌控政策。例如，在病毒消杀的工作中，要有科学的规范，尊重居民的意愿，消杀工作不应对动物造成不必要的伤害。应急保障队伍相关人员在常态时就应进行编队，在紧急状态需要时，可以马上响应并闭环管理，保障不同编队之间无接触，避免疫情传播。

（四）应急基层支撑：做到强大且细密

应建立起紧急状态下的急救求助体系，通过网络、电话等联系方式，以及深入到居委小区和楼栋的网格化回应体系，并由这些回应体系对接居民与医疗、丧葬等体系，避免居民一旦在家中发生紧急状态时，需自行联系而导致救助不及时。急救求助体系应包括对于老人、儿童、病人、残障人士的特殊照料机制，避免这些人群在隔离（或家庭成员被隔离）时缺乏照料。应允许家庭成员自愿选择是否与需要照料的特殊人士（如老人、儿童、病患、精神疾患等）一起隔离。急救求助体系也应包括对动物的救助，体现现代社会对于生命的平等对待。如果政府公共资源紧缺，应在常态情况下，鼓励宠物的主人形成社会自救互助体系，在紧急状态时发挥互助作用。例如，当宠物主人需要被隔离时，宠物可由自助网络的其他成员代为照看。

要在常态下对居民进行防灾教育、宣传和适度演练。在大中小学课程中，应有适当的教学内容。需要建立在紧急状态下的心理咨询和疏导队伍及热线电话，尤其是在高校内部，青年人情绪波动大、心理承受能力低，更应建立紧急状态下的心理咨询和疏导机制，大学班主任、辅导员平时应接受关于心理咨询和疏导的专业培训。应畅通社会监督和投诉机制，对紧急状态下的违法行为进行有效的反映和监督。当出现黑市、腐败、权力滥用、执法犯法等现象时，保障居民正当行使合法权利。由于个体能力弱小，在街镇、居村层面，应建立紧急状态下的法律援助机制，建立常设的公益性法律咨询服务机构。

（五）应急保供体系：市场与政府协同

即使城市出现紧急状态，市场体系仍应发挥重要保障供应的功能。日本在发生灾害时，利用罗森连锁便利店作为应急物资保供系统，这一经验可以借鉴。在商业非常发达的城市，有很多连锁商超和供应能力强大的物流企业，且网点在布局上接近居民区。可考虑在常态状况下建立保供企业名单并向社会公示，接受舆论监督，保供企业名单可根据情况动态更新。在发生紧急状态时，应启动保供企业在市内的供应网络，包括深入社区的最后100米功能。

在生活物资保供方面，政府应制定紧急状态下的保供物资清单。对于因公共安全原因被封闭隔离的人员，应制定标准化的物资保障清单，并按清单发送物资。人员不分身份（除特殊宗教信仰等少部分特殊人群外），做到基本一致，既便于管理，也有利于实现对全体市民的公平对待。

（六）应急战略储备：预备空间和物资

在平常状态下，需对一些较大的物理空间准备应对紧急状态的储备功能。例如，大型体育场馆、大型商场的地下车库、一些学校的内部公共空间、民政体系的救济中心、社区居民活动中心、邻里中心等，均应在常态之下划出一些区域（或全部），做好随时承接临时居住的准备，在紧急状态时容纳流浪人员或隔离人员。一些大型体育、会展设施，应在常态下就具备紧急转为特殊居住空间（如方舱医院或隔离点）的能力。此类场所也应建立名单，相关储备支出应纳入政府财政支出预算。

物资储备方面，应在常态情况下建立起医疗物资和食品物资（特别是易储存食品）的储备。同样道理，应与大型连锁商超企业合作，即使在常态之下，一些易储存的食品和药品也应按照一定比例加强储备。

（七）应急生产保障：确保畅通和协调

城市在常态化下应尽快制定面临紧急状态时的重点行业和企业白名单，以保证城市核心功能正常运转。具体应包括：第一，港口和物流行业；第二，在区域、全国和全球供应链上的关键企业，特别是一些规模比较大的企业；第三，城市公共部门，包括能源、自来水、公共交通、医疗等行业。对于这些行业，应制定在紧急状态之下员工编组、轮班和闭环管理的方案。

具体到上海，它的港口等核心功能在长三角经济一体化中起着龙头作用。反过来说，要让上海的核心功能发挥作用，也需要在紧急状态下借助长三角一体化的物流畅通来保障。因此，上海需要在中央的统筹下联合长三角其他省市共同制定保障供应链安全的应急方案。即使在出现疫情的状态之下，也应保障物流运输行业相关工作人员实现闭环管理。对各行各业进行分级管理，对应紧急情况的不同级别，按照行业和企业的重要性发放长三角互认的车辆和人员电子通行证。电子通行证的发放须公开透明，接受大众监督，并实施电子化管理和验证。

（八）危机影响预判：兼顾经济与社会

一方面，应由经济管理方面的专家团队科学估计紧急状态下的经济损失，而且应由若干团队并行估计，缩小偏误。疫情对于经济的影响，应从经济增长、失业、破产、金融、房地产、产业链等多个方面开展评估，早做预判以便及时采取措施应对，确保紧急状态缓解后及时复工复产。

另一方面，在社会层面，要针对具体人群评估次生灾害的影响。例如，对于独居老人要评估生活困难和超额病亡的可能性；要评估受冲击较为严重的行业、企业和个体，尤其是低收入群体受到的影响程度；对于数量庞大的青年人，特别是在校大学生，要预判其心理波动可能带来的影响；对于严重依赖社会服务业、缺乏独立生活能力的青年人，要提供易加工或即食食物；对流动人口要评估其是否生活困难及成为无家可归者的可能性；对于少数无法独立生活的人群，如失能老人、精神疾患等，要有人性化个性化的方案，保障其在紧急状态下能得到必要的照料，且优先级要置于一般防疫措施之上；对于外籍人士，要充分预判在中国体制和文化下采取的措施，是否能够被文化背景不同的外籍人士同等接受，以及由此可能产生的文化冲突。

（九）外来人口友好：强化开放和包容

数量庞大的外来人口是大城市经济社会发展必不可少的力量。要建立起应对紧急状态的机制和队伍，年轻的外来人口是一支不可忽视的力量，尤其是能够深入社区的生活服务业外来人口，更是可以加入到紧急状态下的应急队伍和物资保障体系之中。这就需要外来人口能够有相当程度的居住稳定性和对城市的融入度，从而能够接受专业培训，确保在城市出现紧急状态时深入社区，切实发挥作用。

因此，大城市应考虑结合紧急状态的应对机制，建设对外来人口友好的包容性城市。具体来说，要加快长期稳定就业、居住的外来劳动力的落户进程，降低外来劳动力落户门槛，如对于加入应急队伍的外来人口，可在积分落户中予以加分。特别是对长期稳定就业居住，但教育水平不高的劳动力，要为其创造定居城市、融入城市、共享发展成果的条件。要改善外来人口在公租房、廉租房和子女教育方面的待遇。尤其要在改善城市群租问题的同时，为外来劳动力提供符合规定的、在他们承受范围之内的替代性租房。

具体到上海这样高度开放的国际经济中心城市，其是中国在全球产业链中的重要节点，同时也承担着中国对外开放的外事功能。上海还代表中国进入世界银行对于营商环境的评估，近年来在依法行政等方面进行了积极努力。上海要建设社会主义现代化国际大都市，必须不能忘记上海有大量外籍人士。在紧急状态之下，也要充分考虑外籍人士的语言服务需求，充分尊重其文化、宗教差异，帮助外籍人士理解政策；要有适度差异化的举措，避免文化、商务甚至外交方面的冲突。

回应后疫情时期大城市发展的几个困惑

对于如何改进大城市治理，应对城市重大公共安全危机，本文首先从九个方面提出了建议。在后疫情时代，首先要做的是经济的复苏和信心的重建。但与此同时，也有一些观点提出了对于大城市发展的疑惑，比如将公共危机直接与大城市的人口规模或密度关联，再比如认为需要通过分散大城市的功能来化解危机。对此，笔者认为有必要把一些大城市发展的理论逻辑再进行辨析。限于篇幅，本文主要回答三个方面的问题。

问题之一：城市发展的逻辑会不会变化？

在一个国家的城市体系中，从大城市到中小城市再到小镇和农村，人口数量和密度依次递减，每一等级的城镇个数依次递增。而且在这个城市体系里，每一个城市的人口在整个国家的排序中通常是非常稳定的。之所以出现这样的现象，主要是因为城市体系和城市发展有三个重要的决定因素。第一是地理位置，比如是否沿海港口。第二是经济地理，在国际市场上，到沿海港口有多远，就决定了到国际市场的距离；而在国内，到人口众多的城市群和中心城市的距离，就决定了在国内市场上的运输成本。

第三个导致城市体系稳定的是城市发展的路径依赖性，需要单独说明。城市在历史上积累的物质资本、人力资本、基础设施等，会持续地对城市后续的发展产生影响，一些曾经是海港或者河港的大城市，到了今天，即便已经不再承担港口的功能，仍然是所在国家的城市体系中的中心城市。路径依赖性导致城市体系是非常稳定的，除非发生重大的技术变革和制度变迁。例如，人类的主流国际贸易方式从路上运输转为海洋贸易，使一些沿海大港口取代内陆城市成为世界经济的中心。再如，中国从计划经济和半封闭经济转向市场经济和开放经济，使得东南沿海的长江三角洲和珠江三角洲城市群迅速崛起。除此之外，世界上的大城市所经历过的各种冲击，包括传染病、污染事件、战争，都没有改变那些大城市在整个国家城市体系中的位置。举例来说，在第二次世界大战时期，日本的东京等城市经历了严重的战火摧残，人口急剧下降。但是在战争之后的十多年时间，日本城市人口的空间分布就又回到了二战前的状态。

问题之二：人口集聚带来的问题有多严重？

人口集聚源于经济发展的规模效应，它带来了劳动生产率的提高、活跃的创新，以及生活服务业的数量、质量和多样性。当然，人口集聚也一定会伴随各种各样的问题，否定这些问题，就不能解释为什么世界各地没有出现一个国家的人口只集中在一个城市的现象。同样道理，当学者在一个具体的研究里讨论人口集聚带来的好处，也可以有另外一个研究或者其他的研究来讨论人口集聚所带来的坏处。

这其中核心的问题在于，人口集聚所带来的问题有多严重，这可以从人口规模和人口密度两个方面来进行讨论。先说人口规模，笔者所在团队的研究数据表明，人口规模和污染拥堵之间的关系在数量上并不强。以交通为例，城市人口规模增长一倍，人均通勤时间仅增长2.3分钟。城市拥堵指数和人口规模之间的系数也很小，平均来看，在中国最大的城市和最小的城市之间的差别，其实只是1.7多和1.6的差别。在房价方面，全世界大城市房价普遍比中小城市更高，中国也是一样，但是中国一些大城市的房价往往与特定城市在供给侧的土地和供应是否跟上了人口增长有关。至于供给和需求是如何影响中国房价的，可以具体参考我们的数据分析。如果用一个简单的对比来说明问题的话，那么请看深圳和广州，这两个城市人口数量、人均GDP都很接近，但是深圳的土地和住房供应常年远低于广州，当前深圳的平均房价大约是广州的1.5倍。

再来看人口密度。在讨论问题的时候不区分人口规模和人口密度是错误的。实际上，讨论人口密度的影响必须是在人口规模已经给定的情况下去讨论，也就是说，在进行数据分析的时候，人口密度和人口规模要分别作为解释变量，在模型里加以控制。它的实际含义是，给定人口规模，人口密度高是城市形态较为紧凑的表现。人口密度的高低和城市的自然地理条件以及政府是否严格控制城市的建筑容积率有关。我们这里暂时不讨论人口密度的成因，仅从全世界范围的大城市的数据分析结果来看，给定城市的人口规模，高人口密度所带来的紧凑型发展是缓解城市拥堵的，尤其是在人口1000万以上的超大城市。这其中的道理也并不复杂，大城市的产业结构通常是以服务业为主，而服务业需要人和人之间见面交流。紧凑型城市的发展，在给定见面的频率时，是可以减少人们见面的距离和成本的。当然，高密度的居住会伴随着较小的居住面积，有可能影响舒适度。在大城市内部，是住在高人口密度的中心城区，但工作和服务消费的出行距离较短，还是住在低人口密度的郊区，但出行距离更长，居民会根据通勤的成本、房价和就业之间的关系来选择。

在特定情况下，比如发生传染病疫情时，对于人口密度的讨论，还要进一步区分城市的人口居住密度以及社交距离意义上的密度。在常态之下，这两者的密度是高度相关的，因此，高人口密度既传播知识和信息，也传播细菌和病毒。但是，当人们意识到疫情传播的风险时，就可以在疫情的管控中采取阻断人流、保持社交距离的做法。这时，整个城市的人口居住密度却并没有发生变化，而高人口密度仍然在感染者的检测、排查和收治以及人员封控时的物资供应保障等方面发挥积极的作用。同时，高人口密度的大城市也有很多工作可以通过居家办公完成，从而可以减少人员聚集。正是因为这样的一些原因，我们曾经用2020年疫情在武汉暴发后一段时间的数据做了中国城市的分析，我们发现，中国城市跟武汉之间的经济联系越强，的确越增加了一个城市的病毒感染率。但是在控制了这个有可能因为经济交往而导致城市间疫情扩散的因素之后，高人口密度的城市反而拥有更低的病毒感染率。在2022年，用奥密克戎株的超强传染性导致疫情扩散的地方，既有上海这样的超大城市，也有长春、吉林这样的大中城市，这使得人口规模、人口密度与病毒传播之间的机制变得极其复杂。在病毒超强的传染性下，即使人流被切断，高居住密度一方面虽不利于疫情防控，但另一方面，高居住密度也在提高核酸检验和物资保障的效率等方面有积极作用，这其中的复杂问题有待专门讨论。

问题之三：面对集聚带来的问题，我们选择解决问题还是解决集聚？

这里有必要区分是个体自主的选择，还是公共政策。在个体层面，不管是个人还是企业，如果认为在人口集聚的大城市生产生活成本太高，风险太大，因此而选择离开大城市，或者企业把自己的生产基地分布在多个地区、多个国家，以此来分散风险，这些决策是个体的自由。

接下来讨论公共政策。从人类城市发展的历史来看，不管是100多年前在伦敦暴发的宽街鼠疫传染，还是在20世纪东京、伦敦、洛杉矶发生过的严重的工业污染，再到本世纪初纽约出现的恐怖袭击，一些世界上顶级的城市，在经历过各种各样的冲击和磨难之后，环境和生活质量却不断改善，获得了更好的发展，大城市也逐渐成为连接周边中小城市一体化发展的都市圈。中国在近20年时间里，在大城市通过轨道交通网提高出行的便捷度，通过环境治理改善空气和水质量，再到本文针对后疫情时期城市治理提出的这些建议，我们选择的都是去解决问题。不管是历史还是当代，每一个解决问题的努力，带来的都是大城市更好的发展，引领着所在国家的现代化发展和国际化进程。

如果我们反其道而行之，选择“解决集聚”，那么我们有必要在逻辑上提出以下几点问题，供持有“解决集聚”观点的人们去思考和回答。第一，是不是对于那些权衡了利弊之后，仍然希望在大城市发展的个人和企业，仍然要去拒绝？在这些个体中，拒绝谁，怎么拒绝？第二，如果真的找到一个标准，能够决定留下谁和不留下谁，这样的政策代价是什么？且不说它直接导致的平等和公正的损失，那些原本愿意在大城市获得发展的人和企业，如果离开了，是不是收入和机会减少了？对于大城市自身来讲，是不是人力资源和经济社会发展的动力也削弱了？第三，一些控制城市规模的办法所导致的成本是不是也同样施加在了本地居民身上，比如，控制城市居住用地的政策，是不是反而会加剧房价的上涨？不按照城市常住人口规模来提供公共服务，是不是反而加剧了公共服务的短缺？对于一些常住人口的差别待遇是不是会加剧社会矛盾，最终谁能从社会矛盾所导致的后果中逃脱？

当前，中国正在加快建设全国统一大市场，促进各类要素合理流动和高效集聚。与其他世界各国或经济体相比，统一大市场和经济集聚，有利于中心城市发挥引领国家发展的作用，有利于发挥中国经济超大市场规模的优势。而人为地打破一体化的进程，以及分散中心城市的功能是与经济规律相悖的。当前，中国也正在建设以大城市为核心的都市圈，在都市圈范围内，人口集聚的趋势仍在继续。要知道，中国的城市不管是地级市还是直辖市，我们的统计口径是行政管辖单位的概念，跟国际上其他国家的城市概念完全不一样，我们的地级市和直辖市更加类似其他国家的都市圈概念，但是单独看上海，它的管辖面积和人口又小于东京都市圈。如果在跟东京都市圈大致相当的面积范围之内进行讨论，那么上海跟周边相邻的大约11000多平方公里范围内，人口是3100万，土地开发强度略高于29%，这两个数据都是低于面积达13000平方公里的东京都市圈的。

结语

从2020年的新冠肺炎疫情开始，国际上关于大城市如何发展的争论再起波澜。在国外，相关的争论很快就在学者的努力之下得到了平息；而在中国，这样的努力还远远不够。

随着中国现代化水平的提高，复杂社会已经来临。尤其在国际化大都市，经济和人口的复杂性，给城市治理带来了越来越多的挑战。当面临城市公共危机的不确定性时，需要我们理性地分析复杂社会的特性，在不确定性中探求确定性，为应对城市公共危机寻找合适的方案。尤其是对于刚刚经历过疫情冲击的城市来说，更需要痛定思痛，通过完善城市治理，让未来城市具有更强的抗风险和战危机能力。具体到上海而言，疫情的冲击给上海带来了很多困难，但上海作为国家级中心城市和长三角城市群龙头的使命并不会变。上海具有长江经济带和亚太城市带交点位置的“地利”，有整个国家推进更高水平改革开放的“天时”，因此，也必须要有不畏艰难险阻、勇于担当、团结向上的“人和”。长江黄河不会倒流，中国改革开放的步伐也不会停止。关于上海的未来，我们所做的每一点理论的探讨和实践的选择，都将通过上海在经济、金融、贸易、航运和科创五个中心的功能，对近到城市自身和长三角，远到整个国家甚至整个世界产生深远的影响。

“一切的现在都孕育着未来

未来的一切都生长于它的昨天

希望，而且为它斗争

请把这一切放在你的肩上。”

“祖国呀祖国！我的死是你害我的！

“你快富起来！强起来罢！

“你还有许多儿女在那里受苦呢！”

——郁达夫，《沉沦》。1921年

"Degradation" in Zurich

"Motherland! Motherland! It's you who have caused my death!

"Get rich quickly! Become strong!

"There are still many of your children suffering there!"

— Yu Dafu, "Degradation". 1921

熏风日夜的吹来，草色渐渐儿的绿起来。旅馆近傍麦田里的麦穗，也一寸一寸的长起来了。草木虫鱼都化育起来，他的从始祖传来的苦闷也一日一日的增长起来，他每天早晨，在被窝里犯的罪恶，也一次一次的加起来了。

——郁达夫，《沉沦》。1921年

The warm breeze blew day and night, and the grass gradually turned green. The wheat ears in the wheat fields near the hotel also grew inch by inch. All plants, trees, insects, and fish were thriving, while the anguish passed down from his ancestors grew day by day. The "sins" he committed in his bed every morning also added up one by one.

— Yu Dafu, "Degradation". 1921

郁达夫于 1921 年发表的小说集《沉沦》,包括了《沉》《南迁》《银灰色的死》三篇小说，均以自己日本留学期间的生活和心境为蓝本，刻画了一个留学日本的中国青年为主人公，患有严重的抑郁症，并遭到日本人的歧视和压迫，长期遭受精神苦闷和性爱苦闷。

男主人公软弱的灵魂被抑郁折磨，青春期的性苦闷又无法解脱。他性幻想着女性对他的挑逗，沉迷于手淫、偷看女性洗澡、窃听草丛中男女偷情……此后又自责、恐惧，他不甘沉沦，却又无力自拔，最后跳海自杀。

《沉沦》带有强烈的自叙传色彩，其中独特的心理描写和对传统道德的冲击，在当时引起了较大的社会反响，是其个人重要代表作之一。后来还被作为改编成过电视剧，却没有电影。最多有些影子在周润发出演的《郁达夫传奇》里能捕捉到（文末可以看正片）

The collection of short stories "Degradation" published by Yu Dafu in 1921 includes three short stories: "Sinking", "Moving South", and "The Silver-Gray Death". All of them were based on his life and state of mind during his study in Japan, depicting a young Chinese studying in Japan as the protagonist, who suffered from severe depression, was discriminated against and oppressed by the Japanese, and endured long-term mental anguish and sexual frustration.

The weak soul of the male protagonist was tortured by depression, and he could not free himself from the sexual frustration during adolescence. He had sexual fantasies about women's teasing, indulged in masturbation, peeked at women taking baths, and eavesdropped on lovers' trysts in the bushes... After that, he felt remorse and fear. He was unwilling to sink but was powerless to extricate himself. Finally, he committed suicide by jumping into the sea.

"Degradation" has a strong autobiographical flavor. Its unique psychological descriptions and impact on traditional morality caused a significant social reaction at that time and is one of Yu Dafu's important representative works. Later, it was even adapted into a TV drama, but not into a movie. At most, some traces could be captured in "The Legend of Yu Dafu" starring Chow Yun-fat (the full video can be watched at the end of the article).

“他本来是一个非常爱高尚爱洁净的人，然而一到了这邪念发生的时候，他的智力也无用了，他的良心也麻痹了，他从小服膺的‘身体发肤不敢毁伤’的圣训，也不能顾全了。

他犯了罪之后，每深自痛悔，切齿的说，下次总不再犯了，然而到了第二天的那个时候，种种幻想，又活泼泼的到他的眼前来。他平时所看见的‘伊扶’的遗类，都赤裸裸的来引诱他。中年以后的妇人的形体，在他的脑里，比处女更有挑发他情动的地方。他苦闷一场，恶斗一场，终究不得不做她们的俘虏。这样的一次成了两次，两次之后，就成了习惯了。

他犯罪之后，每到图书馆里去翻出医书来看，医书上都千篇一律的说，于身体最有害的就是这一种犯罪。从此之后，他的恐惧心也一天一天的增加起来了。有一天他不知道从什么地方得来的消息，好像是一本书上说，俄国近代文学的创设者果戈里（Gogol）也犯这一宗病，他到死竟没有改过来，他想到了郭歌里，心里就宽了一宽，因为这《死了的灵魂》的著者，也是同他一样的。然而这不过自家对自家的宽慰而已，他的胸里，总有一种非常的忧虑存在那里。”

——郁达夫，《沉沦》。1921年

"He was originally a person who loved nobility and cleanliness very much. However, once the evil thoughts arose, his intelligence became useless, his conscience was paralyzed, and he could no longer abide by the holy teaching of 'not daring to damage one's body, hair, and skin' that he had obeyed since childhood.

After committing the 'sin', he always deeply regretted it and said through gritted teeth that he would never do it again. However, when the time came the next day, all kinds of fantasies vividly reappeared before his eyes. The remnants of the 'yifu' he usually saw all came to tempt him naked. The figures of middle-aged women were more arousing to him in his mind than those of virgins. After a bout of anguish and a fierce struggle, he eventually had to become their captive. Once it became twice, and after twice, it became a habit.

After committing the 'sin', he always went to the library to look for medical books. The medical books all said uniformly that this kind of 'sin' was the most harmful to the body. From then on, his fear grew day by day. One day, he got some news from somewhere, as if it was said in a book that Nikolai Gogol, the founder of modern Russian literature, also suffered from this disease and never got over it until his death. When he thought of Gogol, he felt a little relieved because the author of "Dead Souls" was the same as him. However, it was just self-consolation. There was always a great worry in his chest."

— Yu Dafu, "Degradation". 1921

萧枫编著的《文学名著精华 中国卷》中这样评价，该小说虽有一定的反帝反封建意义，但充溢着抑郁颓丧气氛。描写大胆率真，心理刻画淋漓尽致，抒情色彩浓重；李玉青在《书卷多情似故人》写到，郁达夫通过大胆率直的描写，呼喊出了那一代知识分子所共有的内心需要。

吴泰昌著在《艺文轶话》中说，小说表现的知识青年苦于无出路的复杂精神状态是属于那个时代的，有相当的典型性，因而发表后引起了广大青年知识分子共鸣。卫道者视之，大为恼火，说它是不道德的小说，足以败坏世俗人心。两种对立的意见，有过激烈的交锋。

In "The Essence of Literary Masterpieces: Chinese Volume" compiled by Xiao Feng, it was evaluated that although the novel had certain anti-imperialist and anti-feudal meanings, it was full of depressive and dispirited atmospheres. The descriptions were bold and straightforward, the psychological portrayals were vivid, and the lyrical flavor was strong. Li Yuqing wrote in "Books Are as Sentimental as Old Friends" that through bold and straightforward descriptions, Yu Dafu cried out the inner needs shared by that generation of intellectuals.

Wu Taichang wrote in "Anecdotes of Arts and Literature" that the complex mental state of the educated youth shown in the novel, who were suffering from having no way out, was typical of that era. Therefore, it aroused the resonance of a large number of young intellectuals after its publication. The moral guardians were extremely angry when they saw it and said that it was an immoral novel that was enough to corrupt the secular people's hearts. There was a fierce confrontation between these two opposing opinions.

鲁迅则在1925年所著的《孤独者》里写过这样一个片段：只要和连殳一熟识，是很可以谈谈的。他议论非常多，而且往往颇奇警。使人不耐的倒是他的有些来客，大抵是读过**《沉沦》的罢，时常自命为**“不幸的青年”或是“零余者”****，螃蟹一般懒散而骄傲地堆在大椅子上，一面唉声叹气，一面皱着眉头吸烟。

In "The Lonely One" written by Lu Xun in 1925, there was such a passage:Once you got to know Lian Shu well, you could have a good talk with him. He had a lot of comments, and they were often quite striking. What was annoying was some of his visitors. Most of them had probably read "Degradation" and often called themselves "unlucky youths" or "superfluous ones", lying lazily and proudly on the big chairs like crabs, sighing while frowning and smoking.

在瑞士苏黎世的一名23岁的中国留学生，Yuhao Fan，其他学生形容他平时安静、内向。他经常呆在他的一室公寓里。

2024年10月1日12点，Yuhao Fan在图文社交平台Instagram 上发布了一条帖子。祝贺国庆节同时，并发布了一封情书，信的开头充满了性暗示，表达了对一名曾经的团支书同学，充满性渴望和性侮辱的复杂情感，幻想与她的亲密关系，并回忆了一起在图书馆的浪漫情景，最后把爱情和个人化爱国情绪连通，表达了热烈的祝愿。

Yuhao Fan, a 23-year-old Chinese student studying in Zurich, Switzerland. Other students described him as usually quiet and introverted. He often stayed in his one-bedroom apartment.

At 12:00 on October 1, 2024, Yuhao Fan posted a message on the photo-sharing social platform Instagram. While congratulating on the National Day, he also posted a love letter. The beginning of the letter was full of sexual innuendos, expressing complex emotions of sexual desire and sexual insult towards a former classmate who was the secretary of the Youth League branch, fantasizing about an intimate relationship with her, and recalling the romantic scenes in the library together. Finally, he connected love with personal patriotic feelings and expressed his fervent wishes.

他的发文配有的进行曲，以及阅兵式和挥舞旗帜的孩子们的图片。

仅几分钟后，这名男子来到瑞士苏黎世Oerlikon的一家幼儿园，开突然用刀袭击了多名儿里。，二名孩子袭击中受伤，其中一名儿童因重伤被紧急送往医院，另外两名儿童伤势较为中等。幸运的是，三名儿童目前均已脱离生命危险。

His post was accompanied by a march, as well as pictures of a military parade and children waving flags.

Just a few minutes later, this man came to a kindergarten in Oerlikon, Zurich, Switzerland, and suddenly attacked several children with a knife. Two children were injured in the attack, one of them was rushed to the hospital due to severe injuries, and the other two children had relatively moderate injuries. Fortunately, all three children have now been out of danger.

据苏黎世州司法和内政部总检察官办公室声明，涉案男子是23岁的中国留学生，从2023年夏天起在瑞士留学。他在没有反抗的情况下被捕，并被苏黎世警方带往警局审讯。作案男子对犯罪行为供认不讳，目前已依严重暴力罪被移交苏黎世州第一检察院。

According to the statement of the Office of the Attorney General of the Department of Justice and Home Affairs of the Canton of Zurich, the man involved in the case is a 23-year-old Chinese student who has been studying in Switzerland since the summer of 2023. He was arrested without resistance and was taken by the Zurich police to the police station for interrogation. The perpetrator confessed to the criminal act and has been transferred to the First Prosecutor's Office of the Canton of Zurich on charges of aggravated violence.

据了解，Yuhao Fan自2023年夏天以来一直在苏黎世大学学习计算机科学，之前他在中国的一所大学获得了学士学位。瑞士的高级检察官办公室在10月2日的声明中证实了他的身份，并指出他是为了学习而来到瑞士的，

在社交媒体他其他的信中，有一封未经证实的截图（Ins的主页很奇怪，不知为何在风景外，只留下这一个截图），体现了其赤裸裸的性探试。

在流传的信中Yuhao Fan提到：“我觉得我们关系很紧密，所以我以你的男友身份写下这封信，他还贬低这名团支书，称她长相普通，并暗示她可能因为金钱而与他人交往，用“也就3000元一晚”这样的表达，似乎是来掩盖被拒绝的自卑与羞愧。

It is known that Yuhao Fan has been studying computer science at the University of Zurich since the summer of 2023. He obtained a bachelor's degree from a university in China before. The Office of the Senior Prosecutor of Switzerland confirmed his identity in a statement on October 2 and pointed out that he came to Switzerland for study.

In other letters on social media, there is an unconfirmed screenshot (the Instagram homepage is strange. For some reason, only this screenshot is left outside the scenery). It shows his blatant sexual exploration.

In the circulated letter, Yuhao Fan mentioned: "I think we have a close relationship, so I write this letter as your boyfriend." He also belittled this classmate who was the secretary of the Youth League branch, saying that she was ordinary-looking and implying that she might associate with others because of money, using the expression "only 3000 yuan per night", as if to cover up his inferiority and shame of being rejected.

有国际媒体这样总结，并传达给了世界一个刻板印象：近期中国国内外频发持刀袭击事件，基本为20至40岁的中国男性，通常患有心理疾病，有袭击孩子的可能性。

很遗憾，事实如此。

Some international media summed it up like this and conveyed a stereotype to the world: Recently, there have been frequent knife attacks by Chinese people both at home and abroad. The attackers are basically Chinese men aged 20 to 40, usually suffering from mental illnesses and having the possibility of attacking children.

It's a pity that this is the case.

郁达夫在作于1927年的一篇自叙文章里，他将大量阅读外国小说的留日经历称为**“在高等学校的神经病时代”**

In an autobiographical article written by Yu Dafu in 1927, he called his experience of reading a large number of foreign novels during his study in Japan "the era of neurosis in higher schools".

我去查资料很巧看到一套《中国现当代文学》的考题，里面通过一段节选，然后提到几个问题，我觉得有意思，节选引用一下——

一个问题是，“他"的性苦闷在当时具有怎样的时代意义？

①《沉论》也诉说着现代人的苦闷，即性的要求和灵与肉的冲突。

②这种灵与肉的冲突不是一般的本能欲望与理性之间的搏斗，而是作为一种现代人的正当爱欲与传统道德礼教压抑下的人性所产生的抗争。

③这个青年所发出的苦闷呼呼声和赤裸裸的爱情告白，本身就是对旧道德礼教的宣战，以至于在当时引起了道德，与否的争论。

I happened to come across a set of exam questions on "Modern and Contemporary Chinese Literature" when I was looking up materials. There was an excerpt followed by several questions, which I thought were interesting. Here is the excerpt and the questions:

One question is: What was the era significance of "his" sexual frustration at that time?

① "Degradation" also tells about the frustration of modern people, that is, the conflict between sexual desires and the clash between the soul and the body.

② This clash between the soul and the body is not a simple battle between instinctive desires and reason, but a struggle between the legitimate love and desire of modern people and human nature suppressed by traditional moral and ethical teachings.

③ The cries of frustration and the blatant love confessions of this young man were themselves a declaration of war against the old moral and ethical teachings, which even led to a debate about whether it was moral or not at that time.

还有问题是，小说通过主人公“他”投射了怎样的民族国家意识？

其中有两个点提到：

③在这个敏感脆弱的青年身上，所背负的是一个贫弱国家的沉重历史与现实，他的自卑与民族的自卑完全是一体的。自卑的另一端则是对于相国强大的渴望，因为只有祖国强大了，才从根本上洗雪他作为一个弱国子民所受的凌辱。

④因此，这个青年被每一次情感受挫所激起的都是对于祖国强的渴望，直至他跳海自杀之前面对祖国的方向发出的呼喊都不是空洞矫情的呼号，而是一个在异国他乡备感欺凌屈辱之后发自心底的一种呼唤，是一种真诚、迫切的赤子的呼声

Another question is: What kind of national and state consciousness was projected through the protagonist "he" in the novel?

There are two points mentioned:

③ On this sensitive and fragile young man, he carried the heavy history and reality of a poor and weak country. His inferiority was completely integrated with the inferiority of the nation. The other end of his inferiority was the longing for the motherland to become strong, because only when the motherland became strong could the humiliation he suffered as a weak citizen of a weak country be completely wiped out.

④ Therefore, every time this young man was frustrated in his emotions, what was aroused was the longing for the motherland to become strong. Until he jumped into the sea to commit suicide, the shouts he sent out towards the direction of the motherland were not empty and pretentious cries, but a sincere and urgent call from the bottom of his heart after feeling bullied and humiliated in a foreign land.

鲁迅提到《沉沦》时笔下的**“零余者”**的存在，是郁达夫笔下那些在新旧交替时代中挣扎的知识分子，是那些在社会体制的夹缝中求生存的边缘人，他们既不被西方文明社会所接纳，也无法适应传统的中国社会。

除了留学生，我们曾经还遇到过极端的另一端，困在底层的“马加爵”和“陈泗翰”等，他们跟零余的知识分子们，共同挑战着我们对社会包容性的认知。他们的苦闷和彷徨，或许并不完全是个人命运的偶然？

变革的时代，有人还懵懂，有人即使觉醒，却找不到前进的方向。他们渴望抗争，却发现自己的呐喊在现实面前显得如此无力。他们在性、社会、生命的种种苦闷中挣扎，却始终无法摆脱那无形的枷锁，或者找不到反抗的对象。

The existence of the "superfluous ones" mentioned by Lu Xun when referring to "Degradation" were those intellectuals struggling in the era of the transition between the old and the new under Yu Dafu's pen. They were the marginalized people struggling to survive in the cracks of the social system. They were neither accepted by Western civilized societies nor could they adapt to the traditional Chinese society.

Besides students studying abroad, we have also encountered the other extreme in the past, such as "Ma Jiajue" and "Chen Sihan" who were trapped at the bottom. They, together with those "superfluous" intellectuals, jointly challenged our perception of social inclusiveness. Their frustration and hesitation might not be entirely accidental fates of individuals.

In the era of change, some people are still ignorant, while some people, even if they have awakened, cannot find the direction to move forward. They long to fight but find that their shouts seem so powerless in the face of reality. They struggle in various frustrations of sex, society, and life but always cannot break free from the invisible shackles or find the objects to resist.

学者许子东在讲郁达夫的《沉沦》时候这样说：

”沿用“看与被看”的线索来读《沉沦》，小说通篇也都在自述男主人公“被看”的感受——不过不是害怕被人看被人“吃掉”，也不是拒绝他人关心，而是抱怨**“怎么没人看我”，特别是没有女人来看我。不受重视，不受关注，没有得到渴望的爱，这才造成了男主角的另一种孤独、凄清，甚至也是屈辱感。”**

When scholar Xu Zidong was talking about Yu Dafu's "Degradation", he said:

"Following the clue of 'watching and being watched' to read 'Degradation', the whole novel is also about the feelings of the male protagonist being 'watched' - but not being afraid of being watched or 'eaten' by others, nor rejecting others' concern, but complaining 'why no one is watching me', especially no women are watching me. Not being valued, not being noticed, and not getting the desired love have caused another kind of loneliness, desolation, and even humiliation for the male protagonist."

他还谈到了——《沉沦》中的屈辱感：“穷国男人”的“现代病”

《沉沦》写一个穷书生在异国的性苦闷。这里有三层意思，一是书生除了才、情、愁，还要穷和病，才有道德优势，令人同情。

二是性忧郁不仅是精神追求也有生理苦闷（证明两者的联系或不联系是郁达夫对青楼传统的传承与突破）。

三是异国背景后来又可以发展为爱国主题。郁达夫在《沉沦·自序》中说，这是“描写一个病的青年的心理，也可以说是青年忧郁病hypochondria的解剖，里面也带叙着现代人的苦闷”

.......

He also talked about - The sense of humiliation in "Degradation": The "modern disease" of "poor country men"

"Degradation" writes about the sexual frustration of a poor scholar in a foreign country. There are three meanings here. First, besides talent, sentiment, and melancholy, the scholar also has to be poor and sick to have a moral advantage and arouse sympathy.

Second, sexual melancholy is not only a spiritual pursuit but also a physiological frustration (proving the connection or disconnection between the two is Yu Dafu's inheritance and breakthrough of the brothel tradition).

Third, the foreign background can later develop into a patriotic theme. Yu Dafu said in "Degradation: Preface" that this was "anatomy of the psychology of a sick youth, which can also be said to be the analysis of the youth melancholia hypochondria, and it also contains the frustration of modern people".

.......

《沉沦》主人公其实或许并没有病，性欲苦闷也是人之常情，小说的关键就在于疑心并忏悔自己有了病（在异国他乡损坏了父母给的身体还不能修齐治平）。这种疑心和忏悔才是病，才是表演的沉沦。

In fact, the protagonist of "Degradation" might not be really sick. Sexual frustration is also a common human feeling. The key to the novel lies in suspecting and repenting that one has a disease (damaging the body given by parents in a foreign land and not being able to cultivate oneself, regulate the family, govern the state, and bring peace to the world). This suspicion and repentance are the real diseases and the performance of degradation.

狂人反抗的礼教，也包含对情欲的压抑，鲁迅自己数十年的无性婚姻，也是“超人”的生活。

《沉沦》男主角的孤冷忧郁，外表看又像冰心笔下的何彬。百年后的今天，与世抗争的狂人其实不多，感动超人的心灵鸡汤虽有市场，真的冰心也十分罕见。反而“郁达夫式的苦闷”，倒是现实中网络上的常见情绪。

“郁闷”的两个基本要素，一是民族，一是“性”。

The feudal ethics that the "Madman" resisted also included the repression of sexual desires. Lu Xun's decades-long sexless marriage was also a "superhuman" life.

The lonely and melancholy appearance of the male protagonist in "Degradation" looks like He Bin under Bing Xin's pen from the outside. A hundred years later today, there are not many "Madmen" who fight against the world. Although there is a market for the soul-stirring chicken soup that moves the "superhuman", the real Bing Xin is also very rare. Instead, the "Yu Dafu-style frustration" is a common emotion on the Internet in reality.

The two basic elements of "frustration" are one related to the nation and the other related to "sex".

当今中国网络，凡事牵涉民族，或牵扯性，必成热点，加在一起就几何级数地热。回到清末民初，中国的基本困境，是在与其他民族的碰撞之中的“被国家”——我们本来是“天下”，现在被迫要想象自己是一个国家（而且还是穷国弱国） .......“民族·性·郁闷”在国民心理层次延续至今，也是“五四”的直接遗产之一。

On today's Chinese Internet, anything related to the nation or sex will surely become a hot topic. When combined, it will become a hot topic with a geometric progression. Going back to the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, the basic dilemma of China was being "nationalized" in the collision with other nations - we were originally "the world", but now we are forced to imagine ourselves as a country (and still a poor and weak country). .......The "national - sexual - frustration" has continued to the psychological level of the people until now, which is also one of the direct legacies of the "May 4th Movement".

《沉沦》中的民族屈辱感，主要通过女人“他者”的目光而感知。小说有四个关键情节，一是主人公因自慰而羞愧，二是偷窥房东女儿洗澡，三是在野地里听到路人做爱，四是在妓院写爱国旧体诗。

偷窥文字有些笨拙：“那一双雪样的乳峰！那一双肥白的大腿！这全身的曲线！” ......有趣的是，少女发现冲凉被人偷看，跑去告诉父亲，她父亲却只是哈哈大笑。或许大正年间，日本还有男女共浴的民俗，郁达夫写的偷窥，虽不高尚，却也无伤大雅。

The sense of national humiliation in "Degradation" was mainly perceived through the eyes of women as "the other". There are four key plots in the novel: First, the protagonist was ashamed of masturbation; second, he peeked at the landlord's daughter taking a bath; third, he heard passers-by having sex in the wild; fourth, he wrote patriotic old-style poems in a brothel.

The description of peeking was a bit clumsy: "Those snow-white breasts! Those plump white thighs! The curves of the whole body!" .......Interestingly, when the girl found that she was being peeked at while taking a bath, she ran to tell her father, but her father just laughed heartily. Perhaps during the Taisho period in Japan, there was still a folk custom of men and women bathing together. Although Yu Dafu's description of peeking was not noble, it was harmless.

“那一颗摇摇不定的明星的底下，就是我的故国。也就是我的生地。

我在那一颗星的底下，也曾送过十八个秋冬，我的乡土啊，我如今再也不能见你的面了。”

——郁达夫，《沉沦》。1921年

"Under that twinkling star, that is my motherland. That is also the place where I was born.

I spent eighteen autumns and winters under that star. My hometown, I can no longer see your face now."

— Yu Dafu, "Degradation". 1921

Author: He Jiangtao

​10月12日晩上23时10分，忽然刷到好友王俊秀在汉尊文研院群发布了：

“知名编辑许医农先生因心脏衰竭，于10月13日子夜，仙逝于北京，享年96岁。

许医农先生是一位资深编辑，对中国出版界和学术界有着深远的影响和杰出的贡献！

许倬云称，许医农先生是中国出版界的一面精神旗帜，其对生命的热忱与执着，对中国进步的反思与肩负，足以让她的许多时代同路人仰望。”

On the evening of October 12th, at 10:10 p.m., I suddenly saw my friend Wang Junxiu post in the Han Zun Cultural Research Institute group:

"Mr. Xu Yinong, a well - known editor, passed away due to heart failure at midnight on October 13th in Beijing, at the age of 96.

Mr. Xu Yinong is a senior editor who has had far - reaching influence and outstanding contributions to China's publishing industry and academic circles!

Xu Zhuoyun said that Mr. Xu Yinong is a spiritual banner of China's publishing industry. His enthusiasm and dedication to life, his reflection on and shouldering of China's progress, are enough to make many of his contemporaries look up to him."

2013年11月，许医农在腾讯思享会致敬时代知行者活动现场照

一时不敢相信，想起18年前我曾见过许医农先生多次，有过不少美好的记忆。

缘起是我慕名找她编辑我《南风窗》的同事熊培云的《思想国：我们的全部尊严就在于思想》一书，她很爽快地答应了，而且不久就发来她专程写的“编辑手记”（附后），熊培云看了这篇手记也很感动，于是在她家见面深聊过几次，每次都如沐春风。《思想国》如期出版，后来也一版再版，编辑的文本都是许先生一字一句编审的。

那段时间与许先生交往是比较多的，忘年交的时间里也了解了她不少传奇的经历，包括她女扮男装许多年的事，包括她编辑的《长江，长江》上了八十年代国家主要领导人的案头，何博传写了《山坳上的中国》后为何沉寂了，《顾准文集》与贵州人民出版社的交集因何而来，她退休后因三联书店总经理董秀玉之邀编辑了至今影响非常大的《三联—哈佛燕京学术丛书》及“宪政译丛”、“历代基督教学术文库”等。那时候我新入行读书出版业，每次小聚深聊都觉收益匪浅。

I couldn't believe it at first. I remembered that I had met Mr. Xu Yinong several times 18 years ago, and there were many wonderful memories.

It all started when I sought him out to edit the book "The Country of Thought: All Our Dignity Lies in Thought" by Xiong Peiyun, my colleague at "South Wind Window", out of admiration. He readily agreed, and soon sent the "editor's notes" he specifically wrote (attached below). Xiong Peiyun was also very touched after reading these notes, so we met and had in - depth chats at his home several times, and each time it felt like a spring breeze. "The Country of Thought" was published as scheduled and has been re - published again and again. The edited text was proofread and edited by Mr. Xu word by word.

During that period, I had quite a lot of interactions with Mr. Xu. During our friendship despite the age gap, I also learned about many of his legendary experiences, including the fact that he disguised himself as a man for many years, including that the "Yangtze River, Yangtze River" he edited was on the desk of the main national leaders in the 1980s, why He Bochuan became quiet after writing "China on the Mountain Ridge", how the intersection of "The Collected Works of Gu Zhun" and Guizhou People's Publishing House came about, and after his retirement, at the invitation of Dong Xiuyu, the general manager of SDX Joint Publishing Company, he edited the "SDX - Harvard - Yenching Academic Book Series", which has had a great influence until now, as well as the "Constitutionalism Translation Series", the "Academic Library of Christian Studies through the Ages", etc. At that time, I had just entered the book publishing industry, and every time we got together for in - depth chats, I felt that I benefited a lot.

时间过的也快，许多细节也想不起来了，但还有2件事印象比较深。

其一，当时许先生也正为柳红的儿子子尤操心，我说也捐1000元吧，给了许先生。许先生过了几天告诉我，她为我代付了100，原来我只给了她900。

其二，我2006年春到美国参加国际访问者项目，许先生托我给她外甥女带几本书，她外甥女是胡舒立的前同事，从中华工商时报国际部离开后去了侨报，当时正在《多维时报》当常务副总编辑，在纽约长岛见到后也请我吃了一顿饭，饭前见到何频先生，还吹牛拉瓜了好一会，中间何频不断接来自大陆台湾香港几地的电话，关系网信息网很广的样子，还说大陆一直在拉拢，但他表示若即若离的状态也挺好。回北京后又捎了她外甥女给她的礼物。

2007、2008年后应该也见过几次许先生，但记忆深的事也没了。后来一忙，就没再怎么联系，但也时常会想起我刚入行出版业她的提携指导与支持。直到2天前看到她离开的消息，于是拉拉杂杂写下这些文字。

好友、真实影像发起人邱嘉秋看到后，又来约我给他们的公众号写一写，于是就在刚发朋友圈的文字基础上写了这一篇。

许医农先生自己改的这个名字，从改名的初衷猜测，她是立志于从心灵深处着手为咱们这个古老的以农耕文明为标志的民族当一个医生（以文为刀，深入剖析），斯事体大！斯人伟哉！壮哉！

她永远活在我们心中！

Time passed quickly, and many details can't be remembered, but two things left a relatively deep impression.

First, at that time, Mr. Xu was also worried about Liu Hong's son Zi You. I said that I would also donate 1,000 yuan and gave it to Mr. Xu. A few days later, Mr. Xu told me that he had paid 100 yuan for me. It turned out that I only gave him 900 yuan.

Second, in the spring of 2006, I went to the United States to participate in the International Visitor Leadership Program. Mr. Xu asked me to bring a few books to his niece. His niece was a former colleague of Hu Shuli. After leaving the international department of China Business Times, she went to The China Press, and at that time, she was the executive deputy editor - in - chief of The Multi - Dimensional Times. After meeting on Long Island, New York, she also invited me to a meal. Before the meal, I met Mr. He Pin, and we chatted for a long time. During the chat, He Pin kept receiving calls from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. It seemed that he had a wide network of relationships and information. He also said that the Chinese mainland had been wooing him, but he said that a state of being neither too close nor too far was quite good. After returning to Beijing, I brought back the gifts from his niece to him.

I should have met Mr. Xu several times after 2007 and 2008, but there were no deeply - remembered events. Later, I was busy and didn't contact him much, but I often thought of his guidance, support, and promotion when I just entered the publishing industry. Until two days ago when I saw the news of his departure, I wrote these words in a scattered manner.

After seeing it, my friend Qiu Jiaqiu, the initiator of True Image, came to ask me to write for their public account. So, based on the words I just posted on Moments, I wrote this article.

Mr. Xu Yinong changed his name by himself. Guessing from the original intention of the name change, he was determined to be a doctor for our ancient nation marked by agricultural civilization from the depth of his heart (using words as a knife to deeply analyze), which is of great significance! What a great person! Magnificent!

He will live in our hearts forever!

（附：许医农编辑手记

今天开始审读熊培云的书稿《思想国》。阅稿前先打开何江涛送稿来时留下的那本2月上半月《南风窗》卷首的“窗下人语”——《吾民吾国，上下求索》，想看看这位文化界知名度甚高、我却无缘结识、一无了解的先生笔底春秋会给我什么样的“笫一印象”。没想到这篇不到1700字的短文竟如此打动了我！忍不住立即给他挂了电话，为此文“含金量”致敬、致谢！

我和我的关注国运民瘼的学界、文化出版界的朋友们谈及现实民间疾苦总是满怀“激愤”，乃至“绝望”。可是，熊培云的笔底华章却给了我——也当给所有读者另一种启悟：

(Attached: Xu Yinong's Editor's Notes

Today, I started to review the manuscript of Xiong Peiyun's "The Country of Thought". Before reading the manuscript, I first opened the "Words from the People by the Window" at the beginning of the February 1st - 15th issue of "South Wind Window" left by He Jiangtao when he sent the manuscript, wanting to see what kind of "first impression" the pen of this highly - known gentleman in the cultural circle, whom I had no chance to meet and knew nothing about, would give me. Unexpectedly, this short article of less than 1,700 words moved me so much! I couldn't help but immediately call him to pay tribute and give thanks for the "gold content" of this article!

When my friends in the academic and cultural publishing circles, who are concerned about the country's fate and the people's hardships, and I talk about the real - life hardships of the people, we are always full of "anger" and even "despair". However, Xiong Peiyun's wonderful writing has given me - and should also give all readers another kind of enlightenment:

其一，他的“和谐社会”解。

从高尚全“和谐社会”解入题：“和”字一“口”一“禾”，表示“人人有饭吃”；“谐”字人“皆”有“言”，表示“人人有话说”。指出：“和谐”解构，不只是一种构词法上的巧合，更体现了转型中国的时代诉求，即妥善解决“民生问题”与“民主问题”。

其二，他的“开放社会”解。

剖析当今中国作为一个“渐次开放社会”是一个“同心不同德”的社会，因为，人人在向往自由幸福的同时又各有自己内生的不同道德欲念。由于“不同德”，使民主契约成为必要；由于“同心”，则使民主契约成为可能。之于今日中国，每个人要打破自闭的樊篱，“你默许自己一份自由，中国便前进一步”。

First, his interpretation of a "harmonious society".

Starting from Gao Shangquan's interpretation of a "harmonious society": The character "he" (harmony) has one "mouth" and one "grain", indicating that "everyone has food to eat"; the character "xie" (harmony) has everyone having "words", indicating that "everyone has the right to speak". He pointed out that the deconstruction of "harmony" is not just a coincidence in word - formation, but also reflects the demands of the times in transitional China, that is, to properly solve the "livelihood issues" and "democratic issues".

Second, his interpretation of an "open society".

He analyzed that today's China, as a "gradually - opening society", is a society with "the same aspiration but different virtues", because everyone yearns for freedom and happiness while having their own different internal moral desires. Because of "different virtues", democratic contracts become necessary; because of "the same aspiration", democratic contracts become possible. For China today, everyone needs to break the barriers of self - isolation, "If you acquiesce to a portion of your freedom, China will take a step forward".

其三，他的“人类文明史”解。

古往今来，东西南北中，整个人类文明史可归之为一部“民主进化史”，即：一部从棍棒朴刀枪炮“动手斗争”的暴力民主发展为“动口斗争”的和平民主的历史。

其四，最后落笔于“今日中国之改造与建设”。

令人信服地指出：任何单一主义与学派都不可能开出医治当今中国社会千百年来积淀的一切沉疴的偏方妙药。无论政府的宏观把握或民众的草根实践，都需要先行者的勇毅，但开风气不为师！需要上下求索，共同成长！

好一个“但开风气不为师”！这样一篇千多字的短文，不见刀光剑影不带刺，却以点穴之笔触及了当今中国国运民瘼的一切要害。书稿还没开读，我已被熊先生收编了。

Third, his interpretation of the "history of human civilization".

Throughout history, from ancient times to the present, from east to west, the entire history of human civilization can be summed up as a "history of democratic evolution", that is: a history of developing from violent democracy of "fighting with sticks, simple knives, and guns" to peaceful democracy of "fighting with words".

Fourth, finally focusing on "the transformation and construction of China today".

He pointed out convincingly that no single doctrine or school can come up with a wonderful prescription to cure all the long - accumulated chronic diseases of Chinese society today. Whether it is the government's macro - grasp or the people's grassroots practice, both need the courage of pioneers, but to start trends without being masters! It requires exploration from top to bottom and common growth!

What a great saying, "To start trends without being masters"! Such a short article of more than a thousand words, without seeing swords and swords and without thorns, has touched all the key points of China's national fate and the people's hardships today with pinpoint - like writing. Before even starting to read the manuscript, I have been won over by Mr. Xiong.

许医农

2006年3月1日记

（作者注：本文作者许医农先生系国内著名图书编辑，从业五十余年，因编辑出版“传统与变革丛书”、《山坳上的中国》、《长江，长江》、“宪政译丛”等上百种影响深远的学术著作，受到中国出版界和学术界的广泛尊敬。）

Xu Yinong

March 1, 2006

(Author's note: The author of this article, Mr. Xu Yinong, is a famous domestic book editor. He has been in the industry for more than fifty years. He has edited and published more than a hundred kinds of far - reaching academic works such as the "Tradition and Reform Book Series", "China on the Mountain Ridge", "Yangtze River, Yangtze River", and the "Constitutionalism Translation Series", and is widely respected by China's publishing industry and academic circles.)

作者：何江涛

草于2024.10.14午后

责编：潘千一

Author: He Jiangtao

Written on the afternoon of October 14, 2024

Editor - in - Chief: Pan Qianyi

本文为作者补充细节扩展阅读，不一定适合媒体报道，权以轻松阅读。

Editor's Note: Reprinted from an invitation for a contribution by Red Star News. Lawyer He is invited to start a serialized series titled "The United States Before the 2024 Election" as a Red Star observer. You can click to access the original article "The United States Before the 2024 Election ②丨 With 41 consecutive months of rising prices, how will voters, who are making the best of a bad situation, choose".

This article is an extended reading by the author to supplement details and may not be suitable for media reporting. It is only for light reading.

流浪汉的歌谣和劣酒——粗观美国消费与大选

"Tramp Songs and Cheap Liquor: A Rough Look at American Consumption and the Election"

文 邱嘉秋

By Qiu Jiaqiu

赶上了 Just in Time

此次赴美正值第79届联大高级别会议周期间，到了纽约，感觉曼哈顿这方寸之地在这一周好像挤满了整个地球的人。

其推高的房价令人嗔目：会议周期间，遍寻整个曼哈顿地区，就找不到哪怕一间低于每晚折合4000元人民币的单人间，不论酒店或民宿，无论什么平台。这样的单人间，其实面积狭小，洗手间连门都没有。

几个平台里，也只唯有一家以昏暗的霓虹灯为酒店唯一一张介绍照片的酒店，还孤零零的留在线上无人问津。

This trip to the United States happened to be during the high - level week of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly. When I arrived in New York, it felt like this tiny place of Manhattan was crowded with people from all over the world during this week.

The soaring housing prices were astonishing: During the conference week, searching throughout the Manhattan area, it was impossible to find a single - room accommodation priced lower than 4,000 yuan per night, regardless of hotels or homestays, and regardless of the platform.

Such single - room accommodations were actually small, and the bathrooms didn't even have doors.Among several platforms, there was only one hotel with a dim neon light as its only promotional photo left online, ignored by everyone.

惊讶之余，联大工作人员告诉我除了开会、整体消费上涨，纽约部分酒店此前被改建为移民收容所，减少了供给，也是原因之一。

纽约会开完赶去哈佛大学，心想总算就好了吧？

To my surprise, a staff member of the United Nations General Assembly told me that in addition to the conference, the overall consumption had risen, and some hotels in New York had been converted into immigrant shelters previously, reducing the supply, which was also one of the reasons.

After the conference in New York, I rushed to Harvard University, thinking it would be better there, right?

大错特错。

在哈佛大学和麻省理工学院等所在的波士顿剑桥区和中心市区，洋溢着一样“欣欣向荣”的景象，我甚至看到了一些普普通通的房间达到了每晚8000元人民币。

在校的老师朋友告诉我，可能是因为近期哈佛开校友会。果然，全球最高学府，会被认为愿意返校庆祝的毕业生，其消费理应匹配同样高度。

Wrong.

In the Cambridge area and central urban area of Boston, where Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are located, there was the same "prosperous" scene. I even saw some ordinary rooms priced at 8,000 yuan per night.

A teacher - friend at the school told me that it might be because of the recent Harvard alumni reunion. Sure enough, for the world's top university, the consumption of graduates willing to return for celebration should match the same high level.

排除一切巧合与波动，即使在中部农业州的肯塔基、俄亥俄州等地，看到的常规房间房租也要1到2000人民币每晚。以上的房价，无不比我多年前来美国的消费有了大幅的飙升。

可能唯一治愈我的是在美利坚的首都华盛顿特区，条件与位置卓越的酒店，竟然只要800人民币一晚，停车也不过20美元一天。不禁令人啼笑，这算一种“行政补贴”的反向调节么？

Excluding all coincidences and fluctuations, even in the central agricultural states such as Kentucky and Ohio, the rent for regular rooms is 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per night. The housing prices mentioned above have all risen significantly compared to my consumption in the United States many years ago.

Perhaps the only thing that comforted me was that in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States, an excellent - condition and well - located hotel was only 800 yuan per night, and parking was only 20 dollars per day. It's kind of ironic. Is this a kind of "administrative subsidy" reverse regulation?

摇摇晃晃的Beer The Swaying Beer

外来客的房租不过就是消费现象的冰山一角。

事实上，纽约为例，其CPI连月按照2-3的百分点上涨，能源和住房成本主因，食品和饮料也是主要通胀主要因素。纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life）的“财富观察”（Wealth Watch）调查显示，与一年前相比，平均61%的美国人在食品杂货和外出就餐上的支出有所增加，这些类别的成本平均每月上涨209.45美元。

这一次，在肯德基上校的家乡，美国中部的肯塔基州，我开车路过加油站的超市，拎出贴着黄色价钱，即为2.12美元的听装啤酒，想象着晚些时候到了伊丽莎白镇的汽车旅馆，窗外无垠的农田为伴，感受本土麦芽发酵后的复杂口感。

The rent for outsiders is just the tip of the iceberg of consumption phenomena.

In fact, taking New York as an example, its CPI has been rising by 2 - 3 percentage points month by month, mainly due to energy and housing costs, and food and beverages are also major factors of inflation. A survey by the "Wealth Watch" of New York Life Insurance Company shows that, compared with a year ago, 61% of Americans have increased their spending on groceries and dining out, and the costs in these categories have risen by an average of $209.45 per month.

This time, in Kentucky, the hometown of Colonel Sanders of KFC, in the central United States, I drove past a supermarket at a gas station and picked up a can of beer with a yellow price tag of $2.12. I imagined arriving at the motel in Elizabethtown later, with the endless farmland outside the window, and feeling the complex taste of locally - fermented malt.

电影《楚门的世界》中，楚门的“好友”马龙经常带着啤酒出现，这是“友谊”的象征和缓解情绪的道具，也是广告的植入。当然，真相大白之日，这种虚假的友谊和慰藉便瞬间崩塌。

在最近的 NBA 球场上，克利夫兰骑士队的啤酒价格为 5.91 美元，俄克拉荷马雷霆队的啤酒价格为 6.84 美元，波士顿凯尔特人队则大胆地以 20.32 美元的价格出售 16 盎司的啤酒。

最终，全美NBA赛场啤酒的平均价格为12.57 美元，全美普通消费500毫升的美国产瓶装啤酒平均价格约为 1.97 美元，酒吧里生啤平均价格则约为 5.81 美元。

最终，对于我这样的酒精爱好者，在摇摆州也从未喝得摇摇晃晃过。

In the movie "The Truman Show", Marlon, Truman's "friend", often appears with beer, which is a symbol of "friendship", a prop to relieve emotions, and also an advertisement implant. Of course, when the truth is revealed, this false friendship and comfort collapse instantly.

On recent NBA courts, the price of beer for the Cleveland Cavaliers is $5.91, for the Oklahoma City Thunder is $6.84, and the Boston Celtics boldly sell 16 - ounce beer for $20.32.Finally, the average price of beer in NBA arenas across the United States is $12.57. The average price of a 500 - ml American - made bottled beer for ordinary consumption in the United States is about $1.97, and the average price of draft beer in bars is about $5.81.

Finally, for an alcohol lover like me, I have never been drunk in the swing states.

美国选民关心什么？当然不是国际大事 What Do American Voters Care About? Certainly Not International Affairs

据《华盛顿邮报》等，在美国，24包方便面价格从 2019 年的 5.22 美元上涨到 2024 年的 7.63 美元，涨幅高达 46%。网络上看到未经证实，美国坦普尔城一川菜馆老板称，蒜苗从以前一箱 15 美元涨到 30 美元，菜籽油从一桶 18 美元涨到 40 美元。2022 年，高露洁公开推出定价 10 美元的高端牙膏，被视为该公司抬高产品定价能力的重要产品。

美国三大信用报告机构之一全联（TransUnion）的高级副总裁兼全球研究与咨询主管查理·怀斯表示，越来越多的美国消费者拖欠还款 。

生活成本危机让美国的中低收入人群陷入困境，今年4月的民调显示，仅有27%的美国低收入家庭表示他们生活还过得去。

According to the Washington Post, etc., in the United States, the price of a 24 - pack of instant noodles has risen from $5.22 in 2019 to $7.63 in 2024, a 46% increase. According to unconfirmed information on the Internet, the owner of a Sichuan - style restaurant in Temple City, the United States, said that the price of a box of garlic sprouts has risen from $15 to $30, and the price of a barrel of rapeseed oil has risen from $18 to $40. In 2022, Colgate publicly launched a high - end toothpaste priced at $10, which is regarded as an important product for the company to raise its pricing power.

Charlie Wise, senior vice - president and global research and consulting director of TransUnion, one of the three major credit reporting agencies in the United States, said that more and more American consumers are defaulting on payments.

The cost - of - living crisis has plunged middle - and low - income Americans into hardship. A poll in April this year showed that only 27% of low - income American families said they were living well.

在我这次开车经过俄亥俄州的马斯金格姆县时，想到最近NYT的文章《代顿诉耶鲁》。文章提到，20 世纪60 年代美国的活力让民主党认为，典型的选民年轻且受过高等教育，比如，一位 24 岁的耶鲁大学政治学讲师，事实上，典型的选民就像一位住在俄亥俄州代顿市郊区的 47 岁女性，她没有大学学位，丈夫是一名机械师。

这位代顿选民本不贫穷，但她在不断上升的通胀中苦苦挣扎。当时的她，开始担心犯罪、学生抗议和吸毒问题。她对越战感到矛盾。她是一个“普通人”，长期以来一直投票支持民主党，但对该党向左转感到不舒服，有了新的选择可能。著书的民主党作者在1970年写道，除非民主党改变路线，“否则我们很可能会看到共和党总统在白宫执政。”

根据益普索的近期民调结果，50%的美国受访者表示生活成本是他们最关心的问题，24%的受访者认为2024年总统选举中最重要的问题是物价和通货膨胀，13%则选择了就业和经济，超过了移民、医保、堕胎、民权等一系列传统议题。

在哈佛大学针对年轻选民的近期调查中，也有超过四分之一认为经济是下一任总统必须最先面对的问题。许多中低收入的非裔年轻人因在疫后复苏期间深受通胀之苦，正在逐渐转向特朗普和共和党阵营。

正如斯卡蒙和瓦滕伯格所说，社会阶层比种族或年龄更能预测一个人的投票结果。

书中说：四年前，哈里斯采取了非常自由主义的立场，但现在她改变了立场，比如移民方面，她的广告称她为'边境州检察官”。同时，哈利斯开始强调爱国主义和经济民粹主义。

When I drove through Muskingum County, Ohio this time, I thought of a recent NYT article "Dayton v. Yale". The article mentioned that the vitality of the United States in the 1960s made the Democratic Party believe that a typical voter was young and highly educated. For example, a 24 - year - old political science lecturer at Yale University. In fact, a typical voter is like a 47 - year - old woman living in the suburbs of Dayton, Ohio. She has no college degree, and her husband is a mechanic.

This Dayton voter was not poor, but she is struggling with rising inflation. At that time, she began to worry about crime, student protests, and drug use. She was ambivalent about the Vietnam War. She is an "ordinary person" who has long voted for the Democratic Party but is uncomfortable with the party's shift to the left and may have new choices. A Democratic author who wrote a book wrote in 1970 that unless the Democratic Party changes its course, "we are likely to see a Republican president in the White House."

According to a recent Ipsos poll, 50% of American respondents said that the cost of living is their most concerned issue, 24% of respondents believe that prices and inflation are the most important issues in the 2024 presidential election, and 13% chose employment and the economy, surpassing a series of traditional issues such as immigration, health care, abortion, and civil rights.

In a recent survey of young voters by Harvard University, more than a quarter also believe that the economy is the issue that the next president must face first. Many middle - and low - income African - American young people, who have suffered from inflation during the post - pandemic recovery, are gradually turning to Trump and the Republican camp.

As Scammon and Wattenberg said, social class is a better predictor of a person's voting outcome than race or age.

The book said: Four years ago, Harris took a very liberal position, but now she has changed her position. For example, in terms of immigration, her advertisement calls her a "border - state prosecutor". At the same time, Harris has begun to emphasize patriotism and economic populism.

园丁的抉择 The Gardener's Choice

据网络信息统计，美国人民已经连续41个月经历物价上涨，经济原因让中产萎缩，让阶层发成内在结构性变化。

在普遍现象外，还让我想起一位匹兹堡的园丁。

据定居在匹兹堡的师姐说，这园丁为她家的庭院提供服务，是一位非常聪明的人，他在攒钱准备去考匹兹堡大学、卡耐基梅隆大学这样宾州顶级学府的研究生，而他的本科则选择了性价比很高的线上大学。在他的计划里，他要学习国际法硕士专业，之后带着孩子离开美国，去往欧洲。

According to online statistics, the American people have experienced rising prices for 41 consecutive months. Economic reasons have led to the shrinking of the middle class and internal structural changes in social classes.

Besides the general phenomenon, I also remember a gardener in Pittsburgh.

According to my senior sister who settled in Pittsburgh, this gardener provides services for her courtyard. He is a very intelligent person. He is saving money to take the postgraduate entrance examination of top universities in Pennsylvania such as the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University. For his undergraduate studies, he chose an online university with high cost - performance. In his plan, he wants to study international law at the master's level and then leave the United States with his children and go to Europe.

如果有机会，我愿意分享三个月我去到的欧洲，其物价上涨和通胀的程度远远高于美国，荷兰少数地区甚至到达了两、三倍，而经济历来稳健的德国，也物价上升接近一倍。

要知道2019年我在德国，只会买2欧元以下的美味红酒。

如今，这个价格线被迫提升到了3.5欧。

If I have the chance, I would like to share my three - month trip to Europe. The degree of rising prices and inflation there is far higher than that in the United States. In a few areas of the Netherlands, it has even reached two or three times, and in Germany, which has always had a stable economy, prices have also risen nearly by double.

You know, in 2019, in Germany, I would only buy delicious red wine priced below 2 euros.

Now, this price line has been forced to rise to 3.5 euros.

在我此行最后抵达的肯塔基州伊丽莎白镇，曾有一部同名电影**《伊丽莎白镇》**取材于此。

其中，有一首配乐名为**《Sugar Blue 苦中作乐》**，歌词摘选是这样的：

In Elizabethtown, Kentucky, where I arrived at the end of this trip, a movie named "Elizabethtown" was filmed here.There is a soundtrack named "Sugar Blue Making the Best of a Bad Situation", and the selected lyrics are as follows:

Hobo songs and railroad gin

流浪汉的歌谣和劣酒

Alcohol evaporates through skin

酒精穿过皮肤蒸发

One gift

只有一个天赋

Sugar blue

苦中作乐

Holding darkness up to the light

举起黑暗迎向光明

The other side shows through

另一边的景象透过来

The raven's song it breaks the night

乌鸦的歌声划破黑夜

And I rise from me through broken hues

我穿过破碎的雾霭

Going nowhere's somewhere's song

一事无成的我和我的歌谣

Finding right in what went wrong

在颠倒的世界找寻真理

One gift sugar blue

我只能苦中作乐

Sugar blue

苦中作乐

诺贝尔奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼曾表示，所有经济数据最好被视为一种无聊的科幻小说，而有些国家的数据则更为魔幻。

克强指数

李克强指数或克强指数（Li keqiang index）是《经济学人》于2010年末创建的经济衡量指数，使用三个指标来衡量中国经济。

其源自2007年李克强时任中共辽宁省委书记时对一位来访官员表示，辽宁省的GDP数据不可靠，他本人还使用了另外三个指标：铁路货运量、工业电力消耗和银行中长期贷款。

《经济学人》收到启发而综合推出指标（铁路货运量25%、电力消耗40%、中长期贷款35 %）后，以‍李克强的名字命名，在一段时间内广受欢迎。花旗银行用它来对比工业企业利润，认为解释能力更强；一个版本在彭博社上拥有了“代码”；印度受其启发，也制定了类似的指数。

然而，由于中国的服务业贡献了三分之二的经济增长，而引出了一个问题：该指数是否仍具有相关性。也有批评者指出，中国经济能源强度的下降破坏了该指数。

而最引人注目的批评者其实是李克强总理本人。在《经济学人》上，他指出该指数现在的相关性不如以前。

李克强多次提及，就业率、城乡收入水平、消费价格、环境保护和结构性改革对于衡量发展成果的重要性，他曾说“很多国家的宏观经济政策都是根据调查失业率来制定的”。今天，北大张丹丹教授对青年实际失业率提出看法后，统计局暂停了公布青年失业率。

然而《经济学人》认为，真正打破李克强指数的是疫情。零售额、航空旅行和房地产市场的下降远比工业、用电或铁路货运的放缓更为剧烈。与此同时，随着人们增加储蓄，中国M2自去年年底随着美元加印一起持续大幅增长。

回应开篇的保罗·克鲁格曼的一句话，任何反映经济现状的指数指标，均不可能涵盖真实经济世界的全貌，而只能对具体阶段作相对精确的概括性评估。我国互联网、金融等服务业很难仅用用电和货运指标充分体现，而对于融资难的小微企业，“贷款发放量”指标则很难充分适用。另外，即使对大中型企业，因为银行贷款与社会融资的比例情况，也可能存在低估的可能，但社融目前尚缺全面准确的余额数据。

但“克强指数”事实上相对切合我国经济特征，一定程度上反映了相对客观的经济现状，且其中引用的具体数据易于核实，减少对宏观经济趋势的误判，甚至反映市场对当前经济的信心。

但从“克强指数”的出现到李克强的自我追问，也一定程度上，显示了一位学术素养极高的高层决策者，以民为本、尊重科学、实事求是的执政风格。

今天，可能 克强指数要+1，那就是鲜花的消费指数。

尤其是黄菊花、白菊花、白百合、康乃馨、白玫瑰、勿忘我、天堂鸟、紫丁香和那些寄满相思和怀念的鲜花。

这挤压出来的指数，当然也无法精确地反映社会进步和公众良知，但是或许能厚实人心中的那一杆秤。

在合肥，献给李克强故居的第一束花，来自一位中国少年之手，这位母亲有心了。 

桃李不言，克强总理数十年前于小同窗的赠言，似乎跨越时空有了一种回应。

我不能亲自前往，聊以托在合肥的同窗之手以告慰总理，也算是不知何以解忧的一种自我慰藉。

没有太多思索，我请同学署的名字是，中国一百姓。

中国人民的好总理，一路走好！

你做的有一些事，人们知道了；有些事，不怪你。

据菲律宾商报及Rappler等媒体消息：菲律宾总统小马科斯已任命菲律宾“知华派”，前CNN驻北京首席记者、前北京分社社长吉米·弗古律斯（Jaime FlorCruz）为新任驻中国大使，他曾被称为反马科斯家族人士，1970 年代流亡中国，77年报读北京大学历史系，与中国国务院总理李克强，央行前行长、中国金融学会会长周小川以及重庆市委原书记薄熙来、成为同学。

这是继已故前任驻华大使罗马纳先生后，小马科斯效仿其前任菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特，再次任命资深前驻华记者经历类型的**“中国通”担任菲律宾驻华大使**。

20世界80年代，罗马纳又赴美深造，学成后返回中国，担任了20年的美国广播公司驻华记者，记录了中国自改革开放以来所取得的巨大成就。2016年12月7日，罗马纳被正式任命为驻中国大使。真实影像，公众号 ： 真实影像团队等赴菲律宾使馆吊唁罗马纳大使

此次小马科斯提交三名人士为驻外大使，除了驻加拿大大使，前总统亚罗育的女儿为驻奥地利大使，并兼任驻克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚和斯洛伐克大使，第三名便是吉米·亚德利安诺·弗古律斯（Jaime Adriano FlorCruz）为菲律宾驻中华人民共和国特命全权大使，并兼任驻朝鲜民主主义人民共和国和蒙古国大使。

多位与吉米相熟的中国友人均对真实影像表示，吉米是一位**“非常好的人”。吉米在接受商报采访时对于跟马科斯家族的恩怨时表示，“我愿意抛下成见，一切都是为了国家”**。

1971年，中国人民对外友好协会邀请吉米等十多名菲律宾学生领袖访问中国，进行为期三周的游学，他们不顾菲政府禁令毅然访问还未与菲律宾建交的中华人民共和国。他们抵达北京当天，时任总统马科斯宣布暂停人身自由状，被列入黑名单的吉米被迫流亡中国，一住就是50年。

1971年，一个平凡的夏日午后。刚满19岁的大学新生T怀揣30美金，与同样年轻的伙伴们登上了航班，开启了一段举世震惊的冒险之旅。由中外合拍的真实电影《红色劫机者》，日前进入筹备启动阶段。本片根据真实人物和事件改编，剧本改编通过开发团队采访核心当事人的口述材料、其他重要历史证据和多方举证而完成，并已获得当事人影视化授权。 梁广寒，公众号：真实影像 中外合拍真实电影《红色劫机者》筹备启动

抵达中国后，文化大革命还未结束，吉米与另外两名同伴**罗马纳（Jose Santiago “Chito” Sta. ROMANA）和艾利逊·巴古利瑙（美国NBC电视台驻华首席记者）跟着知青上山下乡**，先在湖南农村劳动，后来在青岛的渔船上工作。文革结束后，吉米于1977年报读北京大学历史系，主修中国历史，跟他同学的包括现任中国国务院总理李克强。

这段历史，被吉米写为其回忆录《七十七年度：我的同学改变了中国” The Class of '77: How My Classmates Changed China 》，于2022年发行，6月也曾邀请梁广寒女士等众多跨国友人参与关于回忆录研讨。

吉米后来担任美国**《时代》周刊驻华记者、《新闻周刊》驻华记者、CNN驻华首席记者、北京分社社长**直到2015年退休。他曾进行包括 1989、邓小平逝世、1997香港回归和 08 奥运等报道。

他被视为北京外国记者团的老大哥，成为在中国任期最长的外国记者。他曾两次担任中国外国记者协会会长，也创办北京大学国际学生校友会，2017年出任北京大学校友会副会长。

他退休后以中国观察者的身份受邀在世界各地演讲，分享他在中国的经验，以及他如何见证新中国从一穷二白到今日跻身世界强国行列。多才多艺的吉米还曾创作歌曲，其演唱的安娜等歌曲曾赠予中国友人，《寻找苏禄王》系列纪录片计划选用吉米演唱的该曲目作为纪录片中的插曲。

另，《寻找苏禄王》剧集版原定于11月24日在福建泉州、马尼拉、雅加达和新加坡四地举行的全球首映礼因疫情原因推迟，仅于26日参加泉州海上丝绸之路国际纪录片节的特别展映，届时主创将赴现场进行分享，欢迎感兴趣的观众来现场提出宝贵意见。

• 《寻找苏禄王》于中国驻达沃总领馆展映 菲律宾内阁部长等观看

• 真实影像出品《寻找苏禄王》于2022服贸会论坛及展会展映

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUyNjkwNDczNA==&mid=2247498034&idx=3&sn=037ecc0a6edcd8003e98dee43f5ac5e5&chksm=fa0505c3cd728cd5c3ca1d5942e3188ed83f62704b8ed94e7b36e01cee5e540e34b7e5420baa&scene=21#wechat_redirect

二零二三，在中国的农历里，是兔年癸卯年。

别看小兔子长得温顺弱小惹人怜爱，但在中国，关于它的成语，却几乎都是贬义词。好不容易的动如脱兔，也是借了逃跑的兔子来用，狡兔三窟亦然。说到底，也还是因为看到了兔子温顺弱小，这也是成人世界里的现实。

逃跑了很久了，是该歇歇了，还是不再逃避了？

能压得住狡兔的五指山，通常是胡萝卜做的。 所以，能辨明是、非、虚、实，才可能迈开走往西天的第一步。

孟子说的，民为贵，社稷次之，君为轻好理解，而分清家天下、家国一体和家国同构也是必要。说一部上个月拆除封控而一夜全面放开时，我们曾经发文推荐蓝道所评影片——

再见列宁

1989年，民主德国，小伙子亚历山大参与抗议，他母亲目睹警察逮捕儿子的一幕，心脏病发作而陷入昏迷。几个月后，民主德国解体，母亲醒了。因担心母亲受任何刺激，小伙子在公寓房间里编造了一个民主德国的假象。但是，真实的世界已经改变了很多。

东德时期的亚历山大对振府有诸多不满，他喜欢西方流行文化，渴望西方的自由开放。但柏林墙倒后，亚历山大的姐姐却没能读完大学，而是去汉堡王做了点餐员，西方诸多问题接踵而至：消费主义、娱乐至上、拜金与官僚主义……没做好准备的亚历山大一步就踏进了无序资本的洪流中。

此时，他为照顾母亲所编造的新闻，为了掩盖东德不复存在的事实，还是面对内心的矛盾——曾向往的社会，令自己感到陌生而不安；曾反感又熟悉的国家，已不复存在。

人心中的祖国伴随着感性的成分，如文化认同、熟悉的面孔。如此，像本尼迪克特 · 安德森在其书《想象的共同体》所论述，自十七世纪的欧起，受启蒙运动影响，“君权神授”、“天zhi子”逐渐失效后，西方统治者在寻找新的正当性的过程中，构建出了与在群众存在人文共性，名为“国家”的认知。而“纸面上的国家”得以诞生，而“认知中的国家”也足以被其利用和绑架。

《南方都市报》2010年发表过一篇文章，引用梁启超所说，中国人常常将国家与朝廷混为一谈。

但其实，“祖国“这件事貌似被拿走了对文化的解释权，但即使没有朝廷，文化共性本身也有一定的整合力，足以凭借其自身使人类拉帮结派。就如同已经自由自主的亚历山大，有充分的个人孝义理由，在一个15个平方米的房间里就可以自建国家。

欧内斯特·勒南在《何为国家》一书中曾提出：“曾共创辉煌的人们希望创造更多伟业”。

更多伟业，需要更有力的支撑和保障。

在去年此刻的文章中，我们已经深刻认识到2022年，对未来的影响。

最后一袋肋排

但钱和人也不可忽视。

2022年，全球的人口总量已经突破80亿，中国人口出现了60多年来首次的负增长。当然，中国人口与发展研究中心副研究员刘厚莲介绍，20世纪90年代以来，有13个国家在经历人口负增长时经济依然保持增长。而人口太多的坏处，对国人而言，尚余音绕梁。

总之，没有了最后一袋和肋排，也没问题。有了钱，谁还跟孩子过不去啊？

钱的问题，不好骗人，PMI再创新低，GDP连年下滑，创业创新寂静无声，跟不稳定的经济政策相反，民间投资倒是稳定了，稳定归零。

科技被美帝卡了脖子，除了卖地和基建，地方财政振兴乏力，延缓和减少公务员收入杯水车薪，去年中国还出现了第一座被财政重整的城市，因为地方财力连政府债务利息都付不起了。好在，减税降费、缓税缓费、留抵退税还在国务院的监督下切实执行，只是，非流转税始终未能推出。

节前的餐桌上，听到一个故事，就是不光头也不强的团队打了几十万个电话就为了贯彻落实一些明令实施的事，身为熊出没的世界里一个本来应该一人之下的人，为何需要这样求人。

2023年的地球，令人疲惫的疫情笼罩下，有一场本无意义的战争，一场不该发生的能源和粮食危机和一次不可逆转的气候恶化。但一百年前就平静么？1923年，毛泽东创办《新时代》杂志，曹锟迫总统黎元洪出京，鲁迅第一部小说集《呐喊》出版，中国红十字会派救护队赴日本抗震救灾，中国12个省大旱，死亡数十万人。走到今天，我们的伟大祖国，曾从“两个凡是”到“解放思想“，从“人民公社”到“包产到户”，从计划到市场，以开放促改革，让中国走到了今天。 

前天是吴敬琏老师93岁寿辰，他曾提，迈开市场化、法治化改革步子，恢复市场主体信心。其实，我以为中国的法治化是真的在进行，至少微观层面，各类法律法规的修订进展，即使伴着各种突发被动和运动式，伴着血和泪，但也是真的如长江黄河之水，很难倒流。

唯有市场化这件事，本来不该成为问题的问题。

但不解决，是没办法完成伟业的。

不一定每年都要总结，因为去年没什么总结的，假话不想说太多，真话呢？都是商业秘密。 我们还要在重新苏醒的市场里，面对侥幸活下来的顽强的对手，一起争夺生存的有限机会，就先不暴露了 。

反正外人主动告诉你的假话多于真话，这是个普遍规律。

所以， 除了，那些不只为结果的呼号：被骗的阿富汗女同胞们倒下了，伊朗女同胞们就还没趴下。

多言能够行必果的言，行那些言之有理的行，是真实影像在兔年的自我要求，也是对外在的期盼。 

在此，祝各位朋友们，

二零二三年的兔年

离开五指山，走上不管是否平坦的光明正道

大吉大利！

每年跨年的文章——

猛虎出山 The Year of Tiger 2022

一九零一年的除夕

诚如在我曾去过的Papua New Guinea，食人头的传统在一些地区仍存在，而从开始也并非是因为饥饿，而是为斗争的法则和胜利者的荣耀，也是对自然平衡与生命价值的尊重；现代化社会里的你死我活，则着眼于他处，更为复杂。

数字永生的Crypto世界里，法则会何去何从？

带着问题纵身而入，看个究竟，就从此刻开始