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            <title><![CDATA[The rationality of BTC price based on miner costs]]></title>
            <link>https://paragraph.com/@Season/the-rationality-of-btc-price-based-on-miner-costs</link>
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            <pubDate>Fri, 06 Dec 2024 14:51:35 GMT</pubDate>
            <description><![CDATA[Although the production of BTC is halved every four years, which in disguise increases the production costs of miners, it does not directly affect the price of #BTC. Of course, the price level is still determined by the market, including macroeconomics, sentiment, supply and demand, etc. So after the BTC halving, will it be meaningless to track mining costs? Not really! On the contrary, I believe that although the cost of miners cannot determine the upper limit of BTC price, it can indeed aff...]]></description>
            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Although the production of BTC is halved every four years, which in disguise increases the production costs of miners, it does not directly affect the price of #BTC. Of course, the price level is still determined by the market, including macroeconomics, sentiment, supply and demand, etc. So after the BTC halving, will it be meaningless to track mining costs? Not really! On the contrary, I believe that although the cost of miners cannot determine the upper limit of BTC price, it can indeed affect the lower limit of price to a great extent.</p><p>Since BTC is a risk asset with global consensus (or an anti-inflation financial asset), more and more investors, especially financial institutions, are joining. Once its market price is lower than the production cost, from an investment psychological perspective, it will Trigger strong buying sentiment. You can get more favorable BTC without going through the tedious processes of purchasing mining machines, building factories, recruiting personnel, and operating management. In other words, the BTC price is “irrational” at this time.</p><p>In this case, how to correctly measure the cost of mining BTC becomes extremely important. I participated in the construction of a small mining farm from 2018 to 2020, so I have an understanding of the entire systematic engineering of mining.</p><p>In fact, it is difficult for even the owner of a mine to accurately calculate the cost of mining BTC. Because it is not only the cost of mining machines and electricity, but also includes factory rent, power distribution facilities, ventilation and heat dissipation, operation management, labor, loss maintenance, machine depreciation, loan interest and other costs. For example, mining machines dissipate a lot of heat when working, so the indoor temperature control requirements are extremely high. Excessive temperature can easily cause machine damage. Once the machine is offline, it will take several weeks or even more than a month to send it back to the manufacturer for repair, which will affect production efficiency. Such additional costs cannot be accurately calculated.</p><p>We can only wait until the computing power is eliminated and the mine is closed, then subtract the funds recovered from selling the old mining machine from all the funds invested, and then divide it by the number of mined BTC to accurately calculate the actual production of each BTC. Cost (this does not include the time cost of funds occupied). Until then, none of our statistics are accurate. Including the "shutdown price" that everyone often sees, only the mining machine and electricity charges are included in the cost. The actual cost of miners is far more than this.</p>]]></content:encoded>
            <author>season@newsletter.paragraph.com (Nemo)</author>
            <category>btc</category>
            <category>miner</category>
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