Long term investing is a different story. Investing is not trading. Dollar cost averaging is always the best option, especially during bear markets. But people want to know when is the best time to buy or sell like there is some magic crystal ball to help pick the peaks. There’s not. But, if I were to make one trade this would be it.

• Buy Bitcoin 18 months before the halving - around Feb/March 2023

• Sell it 18 months after the halving - around August/September 2025

• Do not use leverage.

• Invest only what you can afford to loose.

During bear markets bitcoin gets boring. The speculators have sold and left - usually at a loss. Volumes are down and mainstream news will confidently report that finally “Bitcoin is dead”. After a year or so of bear market despair, when bitcoin is 70-80% down from it’s highs, the halving happens. The Bitcoin issuance is cut in half creating a supply shock. It doesn’t happen straight away, it takes some time for the shock to set in.

Within a few months of the halving the price starts to rise significantly. The speculators and tourists return buying up Bitcoin off exchanges. They spout their genius on Youtube encouraging hordes of gullible noobs to buy at the top. Increasing prices mean miners don’t need to sell as much Bitcoin to meet expenses. This exacerbates the shortage on exchanges and causes the price to slingshot past it’s fair value - whatever that may be. The same noobs and speculators, also feeling like genius’ now, dive into new coins, ICOs, NFTs or whatever the next big thing is.

Then something tips and people start to sell causing liquidations and more selling. Sentiment turns negative as the noobs who bought the top are down 20, 30, 50%. The bear markets sets in, projects go bust and the cycle repeats.

Now, It was a popular belief among Bitcoiners that no one has lost money in Bitcoin over a 4 year period. That belief was broken for a handful of days in June and July 2022 and possibly into 2023 (it’s currently August, 2022). Popular analysts like Plan B and Willy Woo who predicted $100,000 and $300,000 tops for 2021 were way off the mark. Always remember: 1)This time is different, 2)Nobody knows shit about fuck, and 3)That includes me.

As in a willing acceptance of events. The obstacle becomes the way. Your desire to proceed forward is unchanged.

Action.

Always moving forward. Act justly. Do what is right.

Perception.

Think carefully.

Of course, people are dumbfounded that it’s possible to actually live with such a primitive device. Everyone asks about it, like it’s a cute novelty. It’s the type of phone we all had 25 years ago. To a couple of friends it’s the brunt of many jokes. When asked about it, I usually bring up my concerns around the lack of privacy on smart phones and social media platforms.

"What do I have to worry about. I've got nothing to hide."

Nearly everyone, responds with the Nothing To Hide Argument. Surely, if you want privacy you must be a criminal!

Not only does the Nothing To Hide Argument confuse privacy with secrecy, it’s a completely ignorant mind set. These same people would never discuss their finances with strangers or disclose how much alcohol they drink or the types of porn they watch. But, for some reason, protecting this information from corporate institution is akin to criminal activity?

To relate a personal story, I used to work in sales. Over several years for 3 different organisations I sold expensive products via in-home demonstrations. We trained our telemarketers to obtain as much information about the customer as possible.

We wanted to know thing’s like: What age group was the customer in? What they did for a living? Did they have children? Were they married or single? Was the lead a referral? If so, what did we know about the referrer?

The more information we had, the easier it was to ask the right questions to build rapport and tailor our presentation. Beyond the skill and charisma of the actual salesperson, the biggest criteria to a successful sale was the amount of information we had about the customer prior to going in. Especially when it came to closing the sale.

We were using the customer’s information against them.

A sales person armed with a half dozen data points could convince someone to spend thousands of dollars without them knowing they had been manipulated. And that is the important takeaway.

Why would device and application developers employ psychologists and behavior scientists if it wasn’t to manipulate your mind? They use AI, game theory, social psychology, availability heuristics and behavior science to make you desire stuff you don't need and to subtly change your political views and opinions about the world and society. They manipulate the way you think and you have no idea it's even happening.

Why do you think billion dollar organisations are so hellbent on collecting all your data? Why is data more valuable than oil?

If an organisation is harvesting your data they are doing so to use it against you.

I’m not talking about anything really serious, like self harm, drugs or excess alcohol - which is probably why I don’t stop myself - it’s little things. Staying up to 2am every night gaming or flicking across various dumb Youtube channels. Just one more video… Just one more… Just one more… Knowing full well I’m a product of social media algorithms. Waking up feeling like shit. Unmotivated. Wasting hours away each day. Looking for excuses to not work. Finding reasons to not socialise. Overeating shitty food. And then feeling like shit looking back at my day and realising I achieved nothing.

I never used to be like this. This isn’t me. It feels like something I need to snap out of.

A few nights ago, I came across a video by Jordan Peterson explaining benefits of writing. How it allows you to better formulate ideas, organise your brain and become a better communicator. It reminded me of my early career in sales and business where we would teach trainees to write down their goals and daily affirmations because it helped to maintain motivation and drive better performance.

It also reminded me of the philosophy books I own. Particularly Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. Every knows the name. A legendary emperor of Rome way back in the day, he wasn’t known for his writing but Meditations is one of the most popular philosophy books today.

What is so profound about Meditations is that it is nothing more than a collection of random thoughts. Marcus Aurelius would write his thoughts down for his own benefit. He didn’t intend them to be read by others and certainly never envisioned his entire writings to be collated into a book 2 millennia after his death. It’s a book that you just open up to a random page and read. It gives you insight into the mind of a man in charge of millions of people, giant armies and uncountable wealth yet remains humble and uncontaminated by power and luxury.

Every time I pick up Meditations, I find the content inspirational and thought provoking. But, also I think about the fact that this man, the leader of the civilised world, would take time out of his day to contemplate and write down his thoughts and reveal himself to be vulnerable, troubled and as human as anyone else.

Maybe writing is a good way for me to unfuck my brain and start getting my shit together.

So… here I am. Each day I’ll take some time to write stuff down. Think out loud. Make some effort to change. Get more sleep. Get back to working towards worthwhile goals.

Tonight I will go to bed early, read a bit from an actual book and get a proper night’s sleep. See you tomorrow.