The last time I shared Bullpen & Batory Consulting's Land Insights report for the Greater Toronto Area was back in Q3-2024 . And at that time, the average high-density land trade across the GTA was being reported at roughly $98 per buildable square foot. However, I ended my post by saying this:
So even though prices and transaction volumes are down (which is what one would totally expect right now), it still doesn't feel like this data accurately reflects what's going on in the market today. I think the reality is worse.
Following that post, a few friends in the industry reached out and said, "The reality is much worse!" Yup. But now reality is starting to become more visible in Bullpen's data. For Q2-2025, they are now reporting an average land price of $52 per buildable square foot across the GTA.
This was gleaned from 15 sales recorded last quarter and represents the lowest quarterly figure since Bullpen and Batory started tracking sales in 2017. But even at these lower prices, it's extremely difficult to accurately value development land. All we can say with certainty is that land prices are trending lower and that lower more accurately reflects the current market.
Last year, I wrote that development value has shifted from land to the build . That's still very much the case, but now you're seeing it in the above chart in a meaningful way.
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Cover photo by Viktoriya Beshovishka on Unsplash