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The margins were too thin

Brandon Donnelly avatar Brandon Donnelly

After seeing this beautiful 6-storey and 21-unit social housing project in Lyon, I decided to retweet it and share the fact that we recently had a site under contract in Toronto with the intention of doing a very similar build. We wouldn't have been able to do the same outdoor spaces at the corner, but it was going to be 6 storeys and without any setbacks. The overall dimensions appear to be similar.

However, in the end, we had to drop the site because the margins were simply too thin. I was disappointed. Of course, some people responded to my quote retweet by calling this an example of developer greed. But once again, I don't think most people understand how development economics work. If the margins are too thin it, among other things, means:

  • It's going to be hard/impossible to raise capital and finance the project

  • You might be better off buying a "risk-free" government bond instead

  • That unexpected situations could sink the project (i.e. you lose money)

To give a specific example, let's assume that your expected base case rent at the time of occupancy is $4.75 psf. This would mean that if your average suite size is around 600 sf (which ours was), you would need a face rent of about $2,850 per month.

But what happens if you're off by only $0.25 and your face rent for this same 600 sf apartment is now $2,700 per month at initial lease up? $150 per month may not seem like a big deal, but it is. If you capitalize this income at something like a 4% rate, you will find that it becomes material.

This is what I mean by "the margins are too thin." And it's similar to any other professional not wanting to take on a job because they might lose money or because it's "not worth their time." It's about managing risk and understanding the opportunity cost of taking on such a project.

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Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.