Data Scientist writing on Web3 analytics — A/B testing, causal inference, entity resolution, and perpetuals. Bilingual (EN/CN). Background in consumer-lending fraud detection.
Day 32 | The Four-Way Race for U.S. Perpetuals: I Missed Kraken Yesterday
First, an admission. Yesterday in Day 31 I framed the Kalshi / Polymarket entry into U.S. crypto perpetuals as a "three-way fight" — Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase. After publishing, I realized I'd missed a news story: On April 17 (the same day as the BTC short squeeze), Kraken's parent company Payward announced it was acquiring Bitnomial for up to $550 million. This changes the narrative from a three-way fight to a four-way race. And more importantly, it reveals a more interesting question tha...
Day 32 | The Four-Way Race for U.S. Perpetuals: I Missed Kraken Yesterday
First, an admission. Yesterday in Day 31 I framed the Kalshi / Polymarket entry into U.S. crypto perpetuals as a "three-way fight" — Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase. After publishing, I realized I'd missed a news story: On April 17 (the same day as the BTC short squeeze), Kraken's parent company Payward announced it was acquiring Bitnomial for up to $550 million. This changes the narrative from a three-way fight to a four-way race. And more importantly, it reveals a more interesting question tha...
Day 31 | Kalshi and Polymarket Both Announce Crypto Perps on the Same Day: The U.S. Derivatives Map Is About to Be Redrawn
This is a natural continuation of Day 30. In Day 30 I covered the April 17 BTC short squeeze, and ended with a line about "the perpetuals market structure being rewritten." I didn't expect to be proven right four days later. On Tuesday, April 21, Kalshi and Polymarket announced crypto perpetual futures on the same day. This isn't a coincidence. This is the moment U.S. crypto derivatives regulation cracked open, and every player is racing for the window. What makes it dramatic is that all of t...
Day 31 | Kalshi and Polymarket Both Announce Crypto Perps on the Same Day: The U.S. Derivatives Map Is About to Be Redrawn
This is a natural continuation of Day 30. In Day 30 I covered the April 17 BTC short squeeze, and ended with a line about "the perpetuals market structure being rewritten." I didn't expect to be proven right four days later. On Tuesday, April 21, Kalshi and Polymarket announced crypto perpetual futures on the same day. This isn't a coincidence. This is the moment U.S. crypto derivatives regulation cracked open, and every player is racing for the window. What makes it dramatic is that all of t...
Day 30 | The April 17 BTC Short Squeeze: A Month and a Half of Powder, a Single Match
This is Part 2 of Day 28 (Perpetuals basics). Day 28 covered the mechanics — Funding Rate, Mark Price, Liquidation Cascade. This post doesn't cover mechanics. It covers what those mechanics look like when they actually fire. Because April 17 was the cleanest structural event I've seen this month. Not because anyone made money on it — because it showed what Funding Rate is actually for. The coordinates were marked a month and a half in advance. The event just walked onto the grid. 0) What happ...
Day 30 | The April 17 BTC Short Squeeze: A Month and a Half of Powder, a Single Match
This is Part 2 of Day 28 (Perpetuals basics). Day 28 covered the mechanics — Funding Rate, Mark Price, Liquidation Cascade. This post doesn't cover mechanics. It covers what those mechanics look like when they actually fire. Because April 17 was the cleanest structural event I've seen this month. Not because anyone made money on it — because it showed what Funding Rate is actually for. The coordinates were marked a month and a half in advance. The event just walked onto the grid. 0) What happ...
Day 29: What Is dbt, and Why Is Every Data Team Using It?
0) What dbt actually isdbt (data build tool) is a command-line tool you install on your computer and run from the terminal. It's not a programming language. It's not a Python class. The most accurate analogy is Git — Git manages code versions, dbt manages data transformation logic. Understanding dbt starts with the problem it solves.1) The problem it solvesYou're doing data analysis at a company. Data lives in a warehouse — Snowflake, BigQuery, Redshift. Every day you need to do one thing: ta...
Day 29: What Is dbt, and Why Is Every Data Team Using It?
0) What dbt actually isdbt (data build tool) is a command-line tool you install on your computer and run from the terminal. It's not a programming language. It's not a Python class. The most accurate analogy is Git — Git manages code versions, dbt manages data transformation logic. Understanding dbt starts with the problem it solves.1) The problem it solvesYou're doing data analysis at a company. Data lives in a warehouse — Snowflake, BigQuery, Redshift. Every day you need to do one thing: ta...
Day 28: Perpetual Futures — The Engine of Crypto Derivatives Markets
Perpetuals account for the vast majority of crypto derivatives trading volume. Understanding how they work is foundational to understanding the structure of crypto markets.
Day 28: Perpetual Futures — The Engine of Crypto Derivatives Markets
Perpetuals account for the vast majority of crypto derivatives trading volume. Understanding how they work is foundational to understanding the structure of crypto markets.
