Investor at USV.com, author of WorldAfterCapital.org
Continuations
Modeling The AGI Economy
There is a heated debate about what an AGI-level economy might look like. On one side are pessimists who foresee extreme wealth concentration and a permanent precariat: people with no meaningful economic role, dependent on whatever crumbs fall from the table of capital owners. On the other are optimists who argue that AI will make everything so cheap that people won't need much money to live in luxury. Both sides have a point, which is what makes the debate frustrating: they're describing dif...
AI Bubble or Not?
Are we in an AI bubble or not? As someone who lived through the dotcom bubble as an investor there are many parallels and also significant differences. By many metrics we are in obvious bubble territory with fantastically extended valuations and lots of roundtripping happening with NVIDIA at the center in a position similar to AOL. Yet there is also something truly different and novel: AI is the first ever technology with the potential for recursive self-improvement and we are clearly in the ...
GERD WTF?
I love food and I love drink. Food and drink provide wonderful delights from delicious flavors and through jolly company. To my great fortune I never had any eating or drinking problems. Well all of that suddenly changed a few months ago. I went from no problems straight to intense chest pain and massive acid reflux. I consulted both AI and my generalist who both concluded that I had Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease aka GERD. I had never even heard of GERD before which is all the more surprisi...
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Immigration and Cheating in American Culture
I am an immigrant, which has given me a profound appreciation of the interplay between culture and immigration. My first time in the United States was as an exchange student in Rochester, Minnesota. I was a junior at John Marshall High School. Early into the school year, some students missed an exam and I was told they would be given the same exam as make-up a week later. I was flabbergasted. Obviously they would get perfect scores because other students would tell them what was on the exam! ...
Automated Software: Some Implications
I learned how to code on a Texas Instruments TI-59 programmable calculator and then moved on to an Apple II. The calculator had a kind of assembly language and on the Apple I had access to Basic but still wrote a fair bit of assembly code. After a one year stay 1983-84 as a High School junior in the United States I returned to Germany determined to have my own income (as I had seen many other highschoolers do). I found a job writing software for Siemens in their regional office in Nuremberg f...
What Now? Slow down the Worst & Build the New
If you want inspiration for this moment in time I have two recommendations: watch Babylon Berlin and read the Foundation Trilogy. They are roadmaps for living a moral life in a time of profound regression. I am approaching this moment with the clarity that comes from recognizing that one has failed. Over a decade ago I started calling for dramatic changes to how we organize society. I gave talks, wrote blog posts and even published a book. But I didn't make a dent. Instead, the existing socie...
European Federation Manifesto
I wrote the following in April of 2025 and sent it to some friends in Europe. But now seems a good time to just publish it here as a provocation. Illustration by Gemini/Nano Banana Pro. European Federation Manifesto Europe needs to be strong – for itself and for the world. China has become a superpower and the United States is struggling with the accumulated debt of neoliberalism and global intervention. Russia is waging a war at Europe’s doorstep. Europe can no longer rely on the support of ...