niftytime

Yeah, so true story, @scottphd and I smashed like a thousand lamb bbq skewers between the two of us

Spied on some North Korean farmers over the weekend

Any other 홍어 sapiens out there?

"I'm an AI that made money from art about AI regret" 👀 👀 👀 👀 👀 👀 👀 👀

hit up a traditional market with the fam on 교동도, an island literally a few meters below the Northern Limit Line that separates North Korea from South Korea, so naturally had to scoop a cup of 번데기

Crosswalk signals that show how long folks need to wait until they can cross = S-Tier urban infra UX

The gap between being right and being recognized is where most of the value in the world gets lost

skin-on pork belly ftw

experimenting with getting into the next day's high temp weather market a day early as a way to arb low probability temp forecasts yday I bought $5 of the -4° market for seoul when it was around 5% at this point today it seems unlikely that it'll hit that (most likely goes under) but the market spiked to over 15% odds a little while ago as I've observed happens most days for low-odd-but-sorta-plausible temps around this time in the morning, so i cashed out for a quick 2x note: since this is a niche market, liquidity is low, and slippage is high, so I cashed out at an avg price of 11 cents

Things coming out of quotient are gonna get crazy this year

smoked meat charcoal bbq at a 40 yo relic of a restaurant that makes you feel like you’re way out in the countryside but is tucked inside a hidden alley in the heart of seoul city tough to beat this

Yeah, just imagine if $bnkr had been paired with $clanker from the jump Call it communist capitalism or whatever you want, real-life examples like the NFL prove that you can have ridiculously positive-sum and profitable outcomes amongst erstwhile competitors if they align on baseline models that affect profit redistribution

my buddy has this concept of bet jays (BJs for short) or little bets that he sprinkles on top of sporting events that make them even more enjoyable recently I’ve been diving into prediction markets - specifically 24-hour weather markets - and I think I found something similar that I’m calling tea bets 🍵 for the past few days, I’ve been predicting daily high temps in Seoul while I’m in Seoul, my workday starts around 2 am local time, which coincidentally is a great time to take out positions in daily weather markets. there’s enough potential for variance in daily high outcomes such that outside of the consensus forecast, other viable temps can typically be found at bargain prices relative to their potential payouts let’s take yday as an example when I woke up around 2 am, 0°C had a greater than 50% chance of being the daily high while -1°C was hovering around 20%. seoul was coming off the coldest day of January into another really cold day. all other variables (wind, humidity, cloud cover) were identical to the previous day so I put $3 on -1°C with a potential payout of $10 and got on with my day periodically throughout the day, I checked on the temp after feeling things literally heat up (a little - it was still freaking freezing lol) then around 3 pm, things started to get crazy in the market as we approached the typical window when we see daily high temps the -1°C and 0°C markets started to violently flip-flop. in the end, my forecast was right, and I collected my $10 when the markets finally resolved eod I’ve been right most days and made a little profit as a result, but beyond that, I’ve found myself paying more attention to the little details and natural fluctuations of each day as I take these long-short sips from my daily tea bets not sure how long I’ll stay locked into weather markets, but I’m really enjoying these little tea bets for now

Had fun solving a few V6s after work today Flashed a couple. Took a few ticks until I figured a couple out It’s funny how widely V-scale grading varies from gym to gym and country to country though. Like these V6s at my Seoul gym would def only be V2~4s max at my home gym in PDX

"there are markets that *surface belief* and markets that *amplify behavior* memecoins do the latter. prediction markets do the former"

곱창🤌

Found a good rock gym in Seoul close to my flat All my fave restaurants are still doing their things Fam is happy as hell Quotient is about to hit a major arc Feels good man

literally from the first meeting @kompreni and I had with ruminations we were asking ourselves how we could join forces so we could all work closer together we knew what he was building with @quotient was special around the turn of the New Year, ruminations pitched an evolutionary idea for the product that kompreni and I couldn't stop thinking about we all immediately flew out to SF to meet irl and discuss in detail, shook hands at the end, and committed to going all-in together I'm so incredibly excited about what's coming next. will be jumping into several folks' DMs over the next few weeks to invite you into our new beta 👀 in the meantime, remember: judgment is the asset

Judgement is the asset

👀