yday i took out a position on a weather market on mobile. I picked the winning temp BUT when I went to claim my reward today I was confused when I saw it hadn't closed. wtf
turns out I took a position on the next day's weather market smdh
reminder to self: always double check the truncated market titles on mobile
not really a politics guy, but I took out a NO position on this "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Mar 31" market based on this forecast on quotient.social
will see how this resolves in a month
nifty little guide for setting up a weather market trading bot (focused on the US weather markets on polymarket)
haven't set a trading bot up myself - every trade i've made so far has been manual - but have some thoughts on how to design one for intl weather markets like seoul after reading through this setup guide
Yday I earned over $190 from a couple Seoul-focused weather market positions. Most profitable day yet
That pushes my PNL over the last month to over $500 (with over $400 generated in the last 5 days alone)
Biggest profit unlock has been deploying larger capital positions on more certain NO positions (e.g., the high temp in Seoul today will NOT be 6.9C)
Got myself orbβd yday
There are like a million places (mostly unmanned from what I can tell) around Seoul where folks can go to authenticate their humanity in the world app
The particular place I went also specializes in selling high-end μμ₯ lmao
same art. different day. new celebration
living art like Gazers by @mattkane is literally coded to surprise and delight
happy solar eclipse to those who celebrate
"[Prediction markets] provide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks *like increases in temperature*..."
Sounds like my daily high temp seoul weather markets may be coming stateside soon. lfg
https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744651216240966?s=20
"Rewards are funded in part by trading ideas surfaced from our users' calls
Long term, we plan to increase rewards substantially with revenue from the context graph our users help build and the forecasting agent their forecasts calibrate"
π π π
From what I can tell, not a lot of folks active in the Seoul daily high temp prediction markets are in Seoul or even Korea for that matter and simply donβt have the boots-on-the-ground ability to tell if a day is becoming warmer/cooler than forecast
Yday was smoggy so I knew weβd probably hit higher than forecast so updated my prediction earlier in the day and was right
today marks day 17 of taking positions in daily high temp in Seoul weather markets over on polymarket
my win/loss record so far:
12 wins*
5 losses
+$132.48
*win = days when I cash out in profit, which can sometimes - but not always - mean picking the correct daily high
1/27: +$7.12
1/28: -$0.04
1/29: -$4
1/30: +$3.92
1/31: +$4.31
2/1: -$1.47
2/2: +$9.78
2/3: +12.88
2/4: +$6.10
2/5: -$5
2/6: +4.20π€
2/7: +$9.72
2/8: +$10.61
2/9: +1.50
2/10: -$2.00
2/11: +$66.00
2/12: +$8.85
