This article delves into the logic behind Trump's tariff policies and envisions new ideas for blockchain entrepreneurship amid macroeconomic turbulence. It also explores how traditional capital entry can bring revaluation opportunities to the crypto industry. The content is based on a keynote speech by D Shan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wanwu Island Sharing Session.
1.1 Finance Enters a "Chaotic Era"
Since Trump returned to the White House, his unexpected economic and political moves have caused ongoing global market unrest. His tariff policy escalation has been particularly shocking. Since April 5, 2025, the US has imposed a uniform 10% "baseline tariff" on all imports and higher "reciprocal tariffs" on 60 countries, including China and Vietnam (with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 125%). In the short term, this has led to significant market fluctuations: US bond sell-offs, a over 4.5% surge in 10-year Treasury yields (the largest weekly increase in 20 years); severe US stock market volatility nearly triggering circuit breakers; and a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index.
Although the US later announced a temporary reprieve for some allied countries, investors remain anxious about the future, and the global financial system seems to have entered a "chaotic era."
A New Order Emerges from Global Trade Turmoil
The old US-centered international economic system established after World War II (such as the Bretton Woods system and the WTO framework) is at risk of collapsing. Rising emerging economies have weakened the US's relative advantage, and its accumulated massive debt and fiscal deficits continue to undermine the dollar's credibility, with the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves declining.
Especially since China's rapid development following its WTO entry, it has gradually caught up to and even surpassed the US in many technological fields, causing deep anxiety among the US elite. Breakthroughs by Chinese companies like Huawei in key technologies such as 5G chip design and communication base stations have alerted the US: the once significant technological gap is rapidly narrowing, and its traditional manufacturing advantages are in jeopardy. Meanwhile, younger Americans are more inclined to pursue finance and arts rather than manufacturing. These changes indicate that the old US-dominated order is loosening.
Against this backdrop, the US decision-making layer has begun to plan a new trade and financial order to maintain its global dominance. The Trump administration's strategic goal is not only to secure better terms in trade negotiations but also to "start from scratch" by establishing a new rule system to reassert US centrality. This has two purposes: first, to打击 (strike against) major competitors and weaken the momentum of countries like China leveraging existing globalization benefits for rapid growth; second, to seek new value anchors to support the shaken US dollar credibility and global trade. Under this logic, the traditional US dollar credit needs stronger backing, and the US has begun to look at assets like gold and Bitcoin as a way to rebuild trust in the global financial system.
Since Trump took office, the US government's attitude toward the crypto space has undergone a significant shift. Shortly after his inauguration, Trump publicly expressed interest in virtual currency development, reversing his previous critical stance on Bitcoin. In recent years, some Republican factions and state governments have gradually embraced Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge against US dollar risks. It can be said that the US is prelayouting for a potential new financial order, incorporating Bitcoin into its national strategic vision.
1.2 Bitcoin and Gold: The US Dollar's New "Dual Anchors"
As global trade and financial rules are restructured, the US aims to establish a new credit foundation for the dollar through "dual asset anchoring," including traditional gold reserves and emerging Bitcoin reserves. This strategy seeks to bolster the dollar's credibility in the new order by combining physical and digital assets.
Gold, long held by central banks as a store of value, is a key card for US dollar hegemony, with US gold reserves stored in Fort Knox. Now, Bitcoin is being granted a similar strategic status as "digital gold." By the end of 2024, Bitcoin's total market cap was about 2 trillion USD, roughly one-tenth of gold's 20 trillion USD. If Bitcoin's market cap were to match gold's in the future, its price could grow several times over. Due to its unique advantages—decentralization, limited supply (21 million units), and high liquidity—and its growth potential, the US is seriously considering incorporating it into its national reserve system.
In March 2025, the US government made several significant moves in the crypto space. On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and a "US digital asset reserve." The next day, the White House held a high-profile crypto summit attended by industry giants like Coinbase and MicroStrategy, as well as congressmen and officials. Trump expressed support for crypto industry development and promised to push Congress to pass regulatory framework legislation for stablecoins and digital assets to provide a clear legal environment. Notably, Trump stated at the summit, "Establishing a Bitcoin reserve is like creating a virtual Fort Knox," signaling that the US intends to view Bitcoin reserves as digital-era treasury gold. This marks Bitcoin's official entry into the US national strategy, granting it a status akin to gold.
Compared to gold reserves in national treasuries, the BTC network is more transparent and decentralized. The image above shows a Bitcoin wallet address seized by the US government.
These actions indicate the US's intention to anchor its new financial system on both Bitcoin and gold. In practice, the US government has already accumulated a considerable Bitcoin reserve (mainly through law enforcement seizures) and plans to acquire more. Market rumors suggest a target of controlling about 1 million Bitcoins (5% of the total supply), a proportion close to the US official gold reserve's share of global gold. Although this goal hasn't been fully achieved yet, the trend is clear: some US state governments have taken the lead in using fiscal funds to purchase Bitcoin reserves, while the federal government has "legitimized" Bitcoin through executive orders and legislative proposals. If the US dollar can partially anchor on physical gold and digital gold (Bitcoin) in the future, supported by blockchain technology to establish a new international clearing system, the US could gain an edge in future global financial competition and extend the dollar system's lifespan.
Incorporating Bitcoin also helps the US address its own challenges. For instance, the US government's massive national debt is becoming increasingly burdensome, triggering a credit crisis. If the US controls sufficient Bitcoin reserves and drives up its price in the future, it could sell part of the reserves to fill the debt gap, thereby skillfully resolving debt risks. This "diluting debt with crypto assets" approach has become a new financial strategy for the US. At the same time, the US is strengthening cryptocurrency regulation: a recent bill proposes bringing stablecoins with a circulation of over 10 billion USD under Federal Reserve supervision, indicating the US's desire to control the issuance and rule-making of crypto dollars (USD stablecoins) to巩固 (solidify) the dollar's dominance in the crypto world. Together, USD stablecoins, gold, and Bitcoin outline the雏形 (prototype) of a new dollar order—maintaining the dollar's legal status while supported by physical and digital assets to enhance risk resistance.
Market Environment Adjustment and "What to Do in the Second Half"
Over the past year, the global crypto market has experienced a drastic shift from frenzy to calm. The total market cap of crypto assets has declined from its historical peak of 3.71 trillion USD to around 3.04 trillion USD (source: CoinMarketCap, as of April 23, 2025), entering a phase of deep correction and liquidation. Macroeconomic turbulence (such as rising inflation and interest rates) combined with stricter regulations has caused many projects lacking real value support to disappear in this adjustment. However, for entrepreneurs who believe in blockchain's long-term value, this is a perfect time to build a foundation and nurture new opportunities—the retreat of the previous cycle's bubbles provides an opportunity to refine products and accumulate strength to stand out.
In this "second half" environment, entrepreneurs should consider: what to focus on in the second half? Simple traffic-driven strategies are no longer viable. Instead, a startup logic centered on core value has taken their place. Several directions offer new opportunities in the current market environment:
Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem: financial innovation around the Bitcoin network ("BTC Fi"), infrastructure upgrades, and the reconstruction of real-asset and payment networks based on BTC.
Other public blockchain ecosystems: returning to innovation focused on efficiency and profitability on public chains like Ethereum, moving beyond mere "traffic competition" to build sustainable decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and more, product-oriented.
Real-world assets (RWA) and payment finance (PayFi): combining on-chain technology with real assets and payment scenarios to develop new models backed by stable cash flows.
Crypto-related stocks: paying attention to the rise of "blockchain-related stocks" in traditional capital markets and new paths for Web3 startups to go public.
Next, we will analyze specific startup opportunities worth exploring during the macroeconomic adjustment period based on the above directions.
2.1 Startup Opportunities Around BTC: BTC Fi, BTC Infra, BTC RWA & PayFi
Although Bitcoin has long been regarded as "digital gold" with relatively simple main network functions, recent technological and application advancements are injecting new vitality into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Three major startup opportunities exist around the BTC network:
BTC Fi (Bitcoin Finance): Creating new financial assets on the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin is evolving from a static store of value to an underlying platform for issuing various financial assets. Recently emerged protocols like BRC-20 and Runes have sparked a craze for issuing token assets on the BTC main network. Lightning Labs' Taproot Assets protocol (TA protocol) enables the issuance of financial assets such as stablecoins and bonds within the Bitcoin ecosystem. This suggests that the Bitcoin main network could take on more value-bearing functions in the next cycle, upgrading from "digital gold" to a value storage network supporting diverse assets. Representative projects like Bedrock and Solv focus on building decentralized financial services such as lending, trading, and derivatives on the Bitcoin network, driving a leap in BTC financing and asset issuance capabilities.
BTC Infra (Bitcoin Infrastructure): Reshaping intelligent infrastructure on Bitcoin. To compensate for BTC's native functional limitations, the industry is attempting to build an Ethereum-like smart contract layer for Bitcoin. One approach is developing EVM-compatible Bitcoin sidechains or Layer 2 solutions (such as BTC L2 with Ethereum smart contract capabilities), expanding DApp development space on the BTC network. The other is native Bitcoin protocol-based solutions like the RGB protocol and Bitcoin-native Layer 2 technologies like the Lightning Network, which focus on enhancing privacy, scalability, and payment efficiency to construct a lightweight and cost-effective on-chain execution layer for the BTC main network. Representative projects like Unisat, Merlin, and B² are dedicated to building Bitcoin's Layer 2, middleware tools, etc., improving Bitcoin's development ecosystem and scalability.
BTC-Powered RWA & PayFi: Unlocking Bitcoin's potential in real-world assets and payments. RWA based on the Bitcoin network is gradually emerging, such as tokenizing US Treasury bonds and physical assets. Bitcoin serves as a settlement layer, providing a globally verifiable clearing mechanism and offering these assets a highly credible value anchor. Meanwhile, the "PayFi" model, leveraging payment infrastructure like the Lightning Network, is bringing Bitcoin back to the payment stage. For example, combining AI agents with Bitcoin micro-payments enables real-time small payments between machines and between humans and machines, providing efficient payment solutions for SaaS services, data exchange, and other scenarios. Representative projects like LNFi focus on enhancing Bitcoin's practical application efficiency and user experience in RWA and payment scenarios, empowering BTC's payments and circulation.
Overall, the Bitcoin ecosystem is awakening comprehensively from the underlying protocol to the application layer. Whether issuing assets on the BTC main network, building a smart contract layer, or using BTC for real-asset clearing and instant payments, Bitcoin has the potential to become a hotbed for innovation and entrepreneurship in the next stage. For entrepreneurs, reevaluating the possibilities of the Bitcoin network may reveal undervalued golden opportunities.
