Stablecoins—The "Trojan Horse" in the Financial World

In the dead of night, a luxury hotel in Dubai buzzes with activity as a multimillion - dollar trade agreement is inked. The buyer: an Iranian oil merchant. The seller: a Chinese entity. Oddly enough, the transaction sidesteps the US dollar and completely bypasses traditional banking networks.

Within minutes, a sum equivalent in USDT (Tether) transfers from the buyer's crypto - wallet to the seller's account, sealing the deal. The entire process is silent—no SWIFT messages, no bank scrutiny, not even汇率 fluctuation risks.

This scene is replaying across the globe—from Venezuelan coffee exporters to Nigerian families relying on cross - border remittances. Increasingly, people are abandoning traditional financial systems for a digital currency called "stablecoins."

On the surface, they're payment tools born of blockchain technology. Yet, beneath this facade lies a grander game: stablecoins are morphing into new - age financial weapons in the great - power struggle.

Digital - Era "Petrodollar"

Back in the 1970s, the US anchored the dollar to oil, cementing its global financial hegemony.

Today, a similar narrative unfolds on blockchains—only the protagonists are now USDT and USDC. These privately - issued stablecoins, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, dominate 80% of the crypto - trading volume. They circulate like "digital dollars," free from Fed oversight and border restrictions.

But here's the catch: whoever controls these stablecoins indirectly steers global capital flows.

When Circle (USDC's issuer) froze Russian - linked addresses at the US government's behest, and when Tether (USDT's issuer) quietly amended its terms to claim the right to "freeze any account," reality dawned: beneath the decentralized utopia fantasy, stablecoins remain pawns of centralized power.

Hong Kong's Breakthrough and US Countermeasures

In 2024, China's Hong Kong launched a "stablecoin sandbox initiative," aiming to challenge the dollar体系 with a new stablecoin backed by the Hong Kong dollar.

But this breakthrough faces an uphill battle. User habits, network effects, and even code - layer dependencies (like the smart - contract templates of US - dollar stablecoins) form invisible barriers. More perilously, should Hong Kong stablecoins threaten the dollar's dominance, the US could simply pressure Apple and Google to delist related wallet apps, severing user access.

The Future Is Now: We Stand at a Crossroads

The endgame of this struggle might be a fractured blockchain world: a US - dollar stablecoin camp, a Chinese - yuan stablecoin camp, and a "neutral protocol" striving to survive in between.

As ordinary people effortlessly buy USDT on exchanges, they're unwittingly partaking in a silent currency war.

As a Wall Street analyst notes, "Every stablecoin transfer is a micro - geopolitical vote." The sole question looming is: as great - power financial warfare spills onto blockchains, will we be mere pawns, or can we carve out a third way?

Consultancy: Real - World - Assets

Digital Dollar Hegemony: The "Invisible Colonialism" of USDT/USDC

Stablecoins: The Blockchain Extension of US Dollar Hegemony

In 2023, the global stablecoin market cap surpassed 160 billion USD, with USDT (Tether) and USDC (USD Coin) reigning supreme.

On the surface, they're mere "digital dollars" providing liquidity to the crypto - markets. In reality, their operational models have propelled the US dollar's influence beyond traditional financial confines.

In conventional cross - border payments, the dollar relies on the SWIFT network and banking systems. Stablecoins, however, achieve "permissionless" global circulation via blockchain.

From African cross - border remittances and South American foreign trade settlements to Southeast Asian DeFi lending, USDT and USDC have become the de facto "blockchain dollars."

This means that even as some nations attempt to "de - dollarize," as long as their enterprises and individuals continue to use stablecoins, the dollar's influence remains unshaken.

Compliance as a Weapon: US Government's "Precision Financial Sanctions"

After the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict erupted, the US Department of the Treasury instructed Circle (USDC's issuer) to freeze wallet addresses linked to Russia, involving tens of millions of USD. This incident unveiled a critical truth: stablecoins are not fully decentralized; their issuers are still subject to US laws.

In contrast, Tether (USDT's issuer), registered in the Cayman Islands, has also cooperated with law enforcement to freeze suspicious addresses.

More critically, the reserves of USDT and USDC are predominantly held within the US banking system (e.g., at Signature Bank and Silvergate). This means the US government could随时 cut off their lifeline at any time.

This "blockchain - based sanctions" approach is more efficient than traditional financial sanctions—it requires no bank account freezes; merely tagging specific addresses on the blockchain can instantly immobilize funds.

The "Dollarization Trap" for Developing Nations

In countries grappling with high inflation like Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey, citizens and businesses are massively adopting USDT as a savings and payment instrument. On the surface, this helps them evade local currency devaluation. However, in the long run, it renders these nations' economies more dependent on the US dollar framework.

For instance, in Argentina, the black - market USDT premium soars to 30%, as people prefer to bear the risks of crypto - currency volatility over holding pesos. In Africa, USDT has become the primary channel for cross - border remittances, supplanting traditional services like Western Union.

This "voluntary dollarization" enables the US to expand its monetary influence without lifting a finger. But here's the question—what would happen if the US government decides to restrict these nations' use of stablecoins one day?

Corporate "Boiling Frog" Syndrome

It's not just individual users; multinational corporations are quietly embracing stablecoins too. Some companies have begun using USDC to pay salaries, particularly in overseas branches of foreign - funded enterprises in high - inflation countries.

Furthermore, in global trade, USDT is evolving into the "default settlement currency." Against the backdrop of intensifying China - US trade frictions, some Chinese exporters now prefer USDT over dollar remittances to avoid bank scrutiny.

However, beneath this convenience lies a risk—if the US decides to impose stablecoin restrictions on a particular industry or nation, the affected enterprises could face an instantaneous断裂 of their capital chains.

Chapter - Core Conclusion

USDT and USDC are more than just technological products; they are the digital tentacles of US dollar hegemony. They enable the US to promote its financial policies and implement precise sanctions at a lower cost and with higher efficiency. For developing nations and multinational corporations, relying on stablecoins may mean enjoying convenience while simultaneously surrendering financial autonomy.

China's Breakthrough: Can the Stablecoin Sandbox "Seize the Tiger's Food" from Its Jaws?

Hong Kong's Ambition: Crafting a "Digital Hong Kong Dollar" Alternative

At the beginning of 2024, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) introduced the "stablecoin issuer sandbox initiative," permitting compliant institutions to pilot Hong Kong - dollar - pegged stablecoins. This policy is regarded as another crucial move by China in the digital currency arena—attempting to carve out a niche in the US - dollar - stablecoin - dominated market.

Hong Kong's competitive edges lie in:

Backed by RMB liquidity: The sandbox mandates a 1:1 Hong Kong - dollar reserve, but in the future, it may allow partial RMB collateral, forming a "dual - currency peg."

Regulatory flexibility: Compared to the mainland's strict crypto - policies, Hong Kong offers an "experimental space," luring global compliant issuers.

Geopolitical bridge role: Targeting "intermediate markets" like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, it provides an alternative to US - dollar stablecoins.

Yet, challenges loom large—currently, in global stablecoin trading, Hong Kong - dollar stablecoins account for less than 0.1%. Building user habits and liquidity networks demands time.

Sandbox Real - War: Survival Experiment of First - Round Participants

The first sandbox entrants include:

Traditional banking: such as HSBC's "HSBC Coin," focusing on corporate cross - border settlements;

Crypto - natives: like the Hong Kong Exchanges - backed "HKD Token," targeting retail payments;

Chinese - backed projects: a subsidiary of a central SOE trial - launching the "CNH Stable," exploring RMB - Hong Kong dollar hybrid collateral models.

Initial data suggests higher corporate adoption than individual users. For instance, a Greater Bay Area trade company used HSBC Coin to pay Malaysian cargo fees, saving 50% on fees and time. However, ordinary consumers still favor USDT— "Can the yield of Hong Kong - dollar stablecoins surpass USD products?" becomes the pivotal question.

US's Invisible Sniper: Technological, Liquidity, and Ecosystem Suppression

The moat of USD stablecoins lies not only in monetary credit but also in the full - chain infrastructure:

Exchange hegemony: Binance, Coinbase, and other platforms prioritize USDT trading pairs; Hong Kong - dollar stablecoins face higher listing fees.

DeFi protocol dependency: 90% of Ethereum's stablecoin liquidity pools are based on USDC/USDT; new coins require massive subsidies to attract market makers.

"Supply - cutoff" risk: Should Hong Kong stablecoins threaten the USD's status, the US might pressure AWS, Google Cloud, etc., to terminate technical services for related projects.

In March 2024, a Hong Kong - dollar stablecoin issuer suddenly encountered a USD settlement channel shutdown, forcing a one - week redemption suspension—a move widely seen as a "stress test" for the sandbox.

Long - Term Struggle: Strategic Depth Beyond the Sandbox

Hong Kong's ultimate goal is not to directly defeat USDT but to build an "alternative ecosystem":

Bound to digital RMB: Attracting "Belt and Road" nations via a "digital Hong Kong dollar - digital RMB" quick - conversion channel.

Regulatory arbitrage edge: Offering compliant fund - access channels for sanctioned regions (e.g., Iran and Russia).

Financial weaponization countermeasure: Should the US freeze Hong Kong USDT addresses, Hong Kong - dollar stablecoins could serve as an emergency liquidity source.

But all of this hinges on whether mainland China can tolerate Hong Kong becoming a "crypto free port." Recent crackdowns on mainland OTC trading have already sent chills through some sandbox participants.

Chapter - Core Conclusion

Hong Kong's stablecoin sandbox is a bold breakthrough attempt. Still, the network effects and technological hegemony of the USD system remain insurmountable barriers. In the short term, the sandbox may only serve niche markets. The long - term outcome depends on the speed of China - US financial decoupling and whether RMB internationalization can provide sufficient support.

Extreme Scenario Simulation—When the US Sanctions a Nation's USDT Addresses

Sanctions "Technical Feasibility": Blockchain ≠ Land of Liberty

In 2023, Tether (USDT issuer) voluntarily froze over 600 addresses involving billions of USD, citing "compliance with law enforcement demands." This action shattered the illusion of "unregulatable cryptocurrencies." As long as stablecoins are issued by centralized institutions, they will inevitably be subject to political power.

In theory, the US government could impose blockchain - based sanctions via the following means:

Direct pressure on Tether/Circle: Require freezing of all addresses in specific jurisdictions (e.g., Iran, Russia).

Bank - end strangulation: Cut off the USD reserve accounts of issuers, paralyzing the redemption function.

Exchange encirclement: Compel Coinbase, Binance, and other platforms to delist USDT trading pairs for target - nation users.

More dauntingly, blockchain analysis firms like Chainalysis can track capital flows via big data. Even mixers offer no full anonymity.

Economic Nuclear Explosion: On - Chain Financial Shock in Sanctioned Nations

Assuming the US suddenly sanctions a nation's USDT circulation, the following chain reactions might unfold:

Black - market premiums soar: For instance, Iran's OTC USDT price could spike by 50%, causing import - goods price失控.

Corporate payment paralysis: Foreign - trade firms reliant on USDT settlements face cash - flow breaks and are forced to turn to higher - risk Bitcoin or local stablecoins.

Public asset freezes: Ordinary people's USDT savings become "dead money," sparking street protests.

History has already previewed this: After Tether froze addresses linked to Tornado Cash (a US - sanctioned mixing protocol) in 2022, numerous innocent users' funds were mistakenly sealed, triggering crypto - community panic.

National Countermeasures: From "Blockchain Firewall" to Digital Currency Alliances

Sanctioned nations might adopt the following countermeasures:

Legislate mandatory local - exchange "USDT isolation": For example, Russia mandates domestic platforms to support only RUB - pegged stablecoins.

Foster local alternatives: Iran launches the "Digital Rial," but its liquidity is limited by international recognition.

Form alliances to resist: Nations like China and Russia may jointly build a "non - USD stablecoin clearing network," backed by gold or energy.

Yet, this is filled with irony—to counter "centralized USD stablecoins," nations must establish another centralized system.

Ordinary People's Survival Game: How to Protect Yourself Amid Sanctions?

As national - level confrontations escalate, individual users can only "hedge their bets":

Diversified holdings: Hold USDT, USDC, DAI, and other stablecoins of different backgrounds.

Cold storage in hardware wallets: Avoid keeping large assets in exchange - based wallets that may be frozen.

Physical hedging: During tense situations, exchange part of stablecoins for gold or Bitcoin.

A Moscow - based crypto broker candidly states: "We now resemble black - market traders in the Cold War era—always ready for Plan B."

Chapter - Core Conclusion

The US's ability to sanction USDT addresses marks the arrival of "Financial War 2.0"—more precise and harder to defend against than SWIFT. For small nations and ordinary people, the cruelty lies in this dilemma: embracing or resisting USD - backed stablecoins both come at a steep price.

Future Warfare—The "Three - Body" Game of Stablecoins

A Tripolar World: The Formation of Digital Currency Camps

The global stablecoin market is fragmenting into three major blocs:

USD - bloc (USDT/USDC): Controls over 80% of on - chain USD liquidity, relying on existing financial and technological might.

RMB - bloc (Digital RMB + Hong Kong stablecoins): Penetrating via trade settlements and the "Belt and Road" network but constrained by capital controls and Western tech dependency.

"Neutral" - bloc (DAI, algorithmic stablecoins): Aims to replace politics with code, yet the 2022 Terra collapse proved the dubious stability of full decentralization.

This resembles a digital - age "Three - Body Problem"—none can annihilate the others, but any imbalance risks systemic crisis.

Black Swan Alerts: Financial Doomsday Scenarios

Scenario one: Tether crisis

If USDT's reserves prove insufficient (akin to the 2021 controversy), it could trigger an on - chain "bank run," causing a global crypto - market crash of over 40% in a single day.

Scenario two: HKD stablecoin breakthrough

Should the HKD - backed stablecoin bind to ASEAN trade, forming a "Digital ASEAN Yuan Zone" with a transaction volume exceeding 1 trillion USD annually, it would directly challenge the SWIFT system.

Scenario three: US crypto "internet disconnection"

By controlling AWS, Apple App Store, and similar infrastructure, the US could vanish adversarial nations' stablecoin apps from the internet instantaneously—a move deadlier than financial sanctions.

New Order Survival Guide

For nations:

Establish "on - chain foreign - exchange reserves": Hold multiple stablecoins to hedge against single - currency risks.

Develop autonomous infrastructure: Achieve full - scale de - Americanization from cloud computing to blockchain nodes.

For enterprises:

Multi - currency settlement systems: Simultaneously connect to settlement channels like USDC and digital RMB.

Smart - contract insurance: Automatically transfer frozen assets via DeFi protocols.

For individuals:

Master cross - chain technology: Rapidly transfer value across different blockchain networks.

Beware of "patriotic coin" traps: Locally - endorsed stablecoins by governments may carry inflation risks.

The Ultimate Paradox

The irony of this struggle is that people use blockchain technology to escape centralized power, yet ultimately rely on stronger centralized forces for protection.

When a nation's central bank abruptly declares in 2025 that "all unauthorized stablecoin transactions are illegal," tech - libertarian critics of government incompetence may be the first to beg for state protection.

Stablecoin Warfare: Are We Losing the Future?

Every time you click "Buy USDT" on an exchange, are you aware that you're becoming a pawn in great - power financial games?

Stablecoins, once touted as "tools for financial freedom," have veered into the opposite direction.

The rise of USDT and USDC is essentially the digital transformation of US dollar hegemony—they allow the US to control global capital flows at a lower cost and with higher efficiency.

People from developing nations adopt USDT to evade inflation, yet this deepens their economies' dollar trap. Corporations using USDC settlements for convenience risk their lifelines to third parties that could turn against them at any time.

Hong Kong's stablecoin sandbox is a brave challenge, yet breaking through the network effects and technological hegemony of the USD system is fraught with thorns. The US's ability to sanction USDT addresses has stripped bare the hypocrisy of "decentralization"—before power, code remains fragile.

More worryingly, the future may see "financial fragmentation." As nations build their own blockchain - currency barriers and individuals disperse assets to evade risks like spies, we won't gain a freer financial system but a more fractured and unstable world.

In this struggle, there are no innocents. The US government weaponizes stablecoins, Chinese enterprises attempt Hong Kong - based breakthroughs, and ordinary users waver between convenience and risk—everyone is fueling a system that may ultimately harm them.

Perhaps the only way out is to reject binary choices: neither blindly follow USDC nor trust government - backed new stablecoins. Instead, insist on genuine decentralized alternatives. But this path is doomed to be tough, for human nature always craves convenience over freedom.

The stablecoin war has no gun smoke, yet its stakes are higher than real war—it determines the global wealth distribution for the coming decades. With every transfer, we're casting votes for this future.