volatility has increased across financial markets. For example, big tech stocks and AI-related stocks[2] have significantly underperformed after leading the market in the first half of 2024. In contrast, homebuilders, regional banks, and small-cap stocks outperformed after disappointing returns at the start of the year (Figure 1). The rotation appears to have been sparked by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut and improved polls on former President Trump following the July 13 assassination ...