When most people are impacted by market sentiment and put their money irrationally. We hope to find some logical method for investing our valuable money. Here are some thoughts since I came to the crypto world:
The Order of rising or falling reasons
There are so many reasons for rising or falling, should we consider them all in our investment decisions? Obviously not. Primary logic is more important than secondary logic. When analyzing fundamentals, we should distinguish which are the main support logic.
Here are examples:
Layer1: technology+ecosystem；
Fan Tokens: traffic flows;
meme: narrative+consensus;
Gamefi: new players number（Essentially Ponzi now）;
Applications: Where they are and the right to speak, using scenes;
Another important thing--tokenomics :
Supply and demand conditions, Value capture or not
Secondary logic like investment VC, celebrity support, etc.
When to buy?
Short term: Moving averages and support/resistance；
Short to medium term: Trend reversals, new narratives and big events;
Long term: Liquidity reversals/cycle bottom with enough good fundamentals and wide risk space.
And there are a long term list for you: Layer1: $ETH ; Multichain: $atom ; Layer2: $matic ; Defi: $maker, $uni $curve $aave ; Infra: $link ; Derivatives: $gmx ; ETH2.0: $LDO $SSV ; Storage: $AR
When to sell？
Post-investment management is very important but ignored by most investors. Keeping a close eye on the situation of your tokens is essential to risk management and timing to sell.
Short term: support/resistance;
Short to medium term: Trend reversals, new narratives and big events come true;
Long term: Liquidity reversals/cycle top position.
Last but not least: adjust your mindset
The most important thing is modesty. Always be patient and aware of the market, respect the facts, see the nature from the facts, then find out the discipline of the market. Don't chase normal opportunities, few right investment decisions will make you rich enough