Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 116

The term "missing middle" is typically used to refer to a missing scale in our built environment. It is that middle scale of housing between low-rise and high-rise. But there's another way to think about it and that is in terms of the market that the housing is serving.

Over the last cycle, cities like Toronto saw a kind of "barbell" dynamic. Meaning, new supply tended to target the poles. It was delivering for young professionals and young couples on one end and for downsizers and wealthy retirees on the other. But what has been missing is new supply that targets the belly of the market. And by this I mean something like low-amenity, well-designed, mid-market homes.

Of course, there are good reasons for why this is the case. The cost structure of new developments makes it so that the only feasible way to underwrite new projects is to maximize rents through smaller suite sizes and copious amounts of amenities. It is not that developers don't want to do it any other way, it's that they generally can't.

This is the paradox underpinning Canada's housing crisis. Yes rents are softening and vacancies are rising right now, but it would still be right to say that we are in a crisis . And that's because it largely exists in a different segment of the market — the biggest one.

In my view, this is our great challenge and opportunity as we move through this downturn. And I would bet that once we unlock the right model(s), we will see just how pent-up the demand for housing is in cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

Based on a recent study by the National Association of Realtors (which is a study based on realtor surveys), foreign buyers bought approximately $56 billion worth of residential real estate in the US between April 2024 and March 2025. This represents about 2.5% of all existing-home sales and is the first year-over-year increase since 2017.

56% of these purchases were by people who legally reside in the US but who are not US citizens. And the remaining 44% were by foreign buyers who live abroad.

Here are the top 5 countries of origin:

• China: 15%; 11,700; $13.7 billion

• Canada: 14%; 10,900; $6.2 billion

• Mexico: 8%; 6,200; $4.4 billion

• India: 6%; 4,700; $2.2 billion

• United Kingdom: 4%; 3,100; $2 billion

And here are the top 5 destinations:

• Florida: 21%

• California: 15%

• Texas: 10%

• New York: 7%

• Arizona: 5%

What is clear is that foreign demand has fallen dramatically since 2017. This is likely due to stronger capital controls on money leaving China, a stronger US dollar, rising home prices, and other factors. It's worth noting that this data is up until March 2025 — so right before "Liberation Day." It'll be interesting to see the effects of the current geopolitical climate on next year's data.

Also interesting is the fact that if you go back to the 2008 financial crisis, Canadians made up almost a quarter of all foreign buyers . Let's call it 2008 to 2013. This is not surprising. Our economy fared better during the crisis and the Canadian and US dollars were near parity. It was an ideal time for Canadians to buy and, those who did, ultimately benefited from USD appreciation.

Foreigners buying homes tends not to be politically popular , especially when people are concerned about housing affordability. So I can't imagine that too many people are fussed by the fall off in demand since 2017. Still, it's a bellwether for global capital flows, confidence in the US economy, and wealth being created — or not be created — abroad.

Charts from the National Association of Realtors ; cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash

The other morning I woke up and thought to myself: "My cycling isn't nearly nerdy enough. Sure, I've got the spandex. But what I really need is an enormous rear-mounted selfie stick on the bike so I can capture footage of my rides and the city." So I searched around and found a seat mount rig from Insta360 that looks like this (please note that the stick extends to 1 meter):

Now, I don't have an Insta360. I've heard they're fantastic. I have an old GoPro Max that is, well, okay. I find it has terrible dynamic range. The sky is often blown out. It also shuts off constantly when I'm snowboarding due to the cold. It's suboptimal and at some point I'll likely invest in an Insta360. But for now, I used an adapter to connect my GoPro to the mount.

Below is what the photos/videos end up looking like. As an aside, captured on the right is Good Gang Ice Cream on Annette, which my friend Chris Spoke (of Toronto Standard ) tells me is top.

And here's a video from Instagram.

The way these 360 cameras work is that, as long as the camera is perfectly aligned with the selfie stick, then the entire apparatus disappears in the videos it captures. But if the camera gets misaligned because, for example, things start bouncing around, then it can show up. I'm not exactly sure what's happening in the above, but something is getting in the way of a clean 360-degree stitch.

I'll keep working on it.