Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 1315

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It’s raining this morning in Toronto. The sun really hasn’t come up and out yet. And I’m spending the morning drinking coffee and reading a City Journal article from this past summer called “ Hongcouver .”

The article talks about how the Chinese – first from Hong Kong and then from mainland China (PRC) – have dramatically reshaped the economic and cultural landscape of Vancouver.

I, unfortunately (it’s a great city), don’t spend a lot of time in Vancouver and so I don’t have an accurate sense of the local sentiment towards all of this change. But there’s no question the city has changed. 

Here’s a snippet from the above City Journal article :

As for the notion that Chinese money tended to be ill-gotten, Yu pointed out that the property boom was propelled by the structural disparity between prosperous Hong Kong, a dynamic economy, and the comparative backwater of Vancouver, still “living on the fumes of empire.” For the price of a Hong Kong flat, a Chinese immigrant—even, say, an accountant—could buy a splendid home on Vancouver’s West Side. “The Hong Kong Chinese who came could buy their way into any neighborhood. [They] knew that money was a tool,” Yu told me. “They weren’t going to accept a second-class citizenship in Vancouver. They could say, ‘I don’t care about your British Imperial manners, I am going to buy your house.’ ” The irony was that the Hong Kong arrivals—“more sophisticated than the people they were displacing,” with “better schooling, better English accents,” Yu said—were themselves the products of a system of law and finance instituted by the British with the establishment of their Hong Kong colony in the 1840s, after Britain thrashed China in the First Opium War.

A lot of this was fuelled by the now defunct Immigrant Investor Program . The intent of the program was to allow “experienced business people” into the country in order to contribute to economic growth. If you had business experience, a net worth of at least C$1.6 million (that was gained legally, of course), and were able to invest C$800,000, then you could get permanent residency.

Between the mid-1980s and the end of the 1990s, approximately 30,000 Chinese came to Vancouver via this investor-class visa. And between 1987 and 1997, it is estimated that this group of Chinese possessed about $35 to 40 billion in disposable income . No wonder they bought real estate.

But the interesting question is whether or not Vancouver is better off now than it was in the 1970s before all of this migration really took hold. 

There many who would argue that it is not. Vancouver now has the most expensive real estate in Canada and prices have completely detached themselves from local income levels – as they have in many international cities.

But there’s also a strong argument to be made that this influx of money has made the Vancouver economy more dynamic. Unemployment in the city was cut almost in half between the early 1980s and 1991 during the first wave of migration. It went from 13.6% to 7.7% .

In a way, it’s not all that different than what’s currently happening in San Francisco with tech and housing. I’m not saying there aren’t problems to be solved. But I think many of us can agree that the answer is not to eradicate the tech sector.

That’s throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

On Sunday afternoon I went to see the Blue Jays. It was the last home game of the season before the postseason and the only game I’ve gone to see this season. (Thank you Chris for the ticket.)

And what a last game it was. 

We won 5-4, but we hustled for the win. We squeaked it out at the end with a pinch runner that stole 2nd base (and then tied the game in the bottom of the 8th) and with Josh Donaldon’s walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs. I’m pretty sure the Jays were hungover from celebrating their first playoff berth in 22 years  – that’s why it was so close. It certainly made for a gripping finish though.

After the game everybody was jazzed up and spilling out onto Bremner Blvd in front of the Rogers Centre. I’m not sure if it was premeditated or not, but the entire street was closed to cars. And it reminded me of something that I’ve thought for years: that Bremner Blvd should be made into a kinds of sports and entertainment corridor connecting the Rogers Centre in the west with the Air Canada Centre and Maple Leaf Square in the east.

Bremner is not a long street. But it connects the place where Canada’s only (MLB) baseball team plays and where Canada’s only (NBA) basketball team plays. Right now it’s a fairly nondescript street. But it doesn’t have to be that way. It could be something really special.

This morning I’m working on a presentation that I’m going to be giving one evening next week to a delegation coming in from the US. The title of the presentation is the title of this blog post: Toronto housing – where we came from and where we’re probably headed.

My plan is to start in and around the 50s and 60s and talk about Toronto’s first tower boom following the war. For this time period, I’m relying a lot on the work of Graeme Stewart of ERA Architects , who is one of, if not the , expert on post war towers in this city.

I’m then going to move onto our current high-rise condo boom and compare the two.

Because the interesting thing about the first boom is that, after it finished, we basically returned to the typical North American housing model: building single-family homes. And it wasn’t until this recent boom of the early 2000s that we once again resumed building more high-rise than low-rise housing. That is still the case today.

But the question I want to address is really, what’s next? Where are we headed? Is history going to repeat itself or is – dare I say – this time different?

I’ll eventually get to those questions here on Architect This City, but first I want to hear from you. So here’s what I’m proposing: leave your thoughts in the comment section below and I will feature the best ones in my presentation next week as the voices of Toronto. I’m sure many of you know that I’m a big fan of crowdsourced information.

So here goes. Where is Toronto housing headed and how will we be living in the next 10+ years? Will we be raising families up in towers or not? Please comment by Sunday, September 27, 2015 at 6pm (ET) to make sure I have time to feature you in the presentation. 

Thanks for participating :)