Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 1331

The United Nations recently released its 2015 version of World Population Prospects . It looks as if they put out and revise this report every 5 years.

The Economist then took some of their data and assembled it into the following charts:

It’s obviously extremely difficult to predict what will happen in the world by 2100, but to the extent that forecasting is possible, the world’s population is expected to reach somewhere around 11.2 billion people. Today it’s 7.3 billion.

The bulk of this growth is expected to happen first in Africa, and then in Asia. By 2100, Africa’s share of the global population is expected to grow to 39% and Asia’s share is expected to decline to 44%.

If you’ve been following population trends, most of this shouldn’t come as a surprise to you. The meaningful population growth happening in the world today is happening in the developing world. 

That’s why architects, such as Rem Koolhaas, have been studying cities like Lagos (Nigeria) since the late 1990s and early 2000s. Below is a photo from a book/research project that I love called Mutations (2000). I pulled it from my bookshelf this morning.

It’s interesting to think about what all of this will mean for the global economy and for global governance. 

The United States is about to be alone when it comes to advanced economies with a globally competitive population. Europe is shrinking, which leads me to believe that a strong EU is likely important. And we now have lots of megalopolises with big populations, but with very low income levels.

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, but per capita income is somewhere around $3,000 .

https://500px.com/embed.js

Earlier this week a press release went out announcing that Allied Properties REIT (TSX:AP.UN) had established a joint venture with Westbank to redevelop 489 - 539 King Street West here in Toronto.

“What is so exciting here is that Allied has over time assembled 620 feet of frontage on what is fast becoming one of the most interesting streets in Toronto,” said Ian Gillespie of Westbank. “With this scale, we have a unique opportunity for world-class city building.”

Westbank is relatively new to the Toronto market. Their first project was the Shangri-La Toronto  in 2012. But since then they’ve entered the city in a big way with high profile projects like the redevelopment of Honest Ed’s at Bloor and Bathurst.

But what excites me the most about this King Street project is that they’ve selected Bjarke Ingels Group as the design architect. I’ve written about BIG a few times before and I’m a huge fan of their/his work. So I’m pumped to see what gets proposed here. It will not be typical.

There are a few heritage buildings on the site. And it looks like some (but not all?) will be preserved. 

Based on this post and discussion on UrbanToronto.ca , it’s not clear whether 489 King Street West will be preserved and incorporated into the new build (as was the case with a previous design ). I sure hope it is though.

Whenever you’re starting to feel like real estate prices in your city are getting out of hand, just turn your attention to New York. It’ll make you feel better.

The New York Times published an interactive overview of the Manhattan real estate market today. It was spurred on by the fact that the average residential sale price in Manhattan just hit $1.7 million (a new record) and that there’s a growing number of 8-figure apartments being bought up.

Last year half a dozen apartments sold for more than $50 million in the One57 tower at 157 West 57th Street. (The New York Times calls this building the “undisputed center of Manhattan residential extravagance.”)

Here’s one of their diagrams showing the number of residential sales over $10 million in 2009 and then in 2015:

And here’s another one of their diagrams showing the bottom and top 10% of the current market:

It’s interesting to see the clustering in certain areas and also the lack of clustering at the high end around the top of Central Park.