Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 1402

The total number of vehicle miles traveled in the US used to largely do only one thing: go up. This is made it fairly easy for the Federal Highway Administration (FWHA) to forecast how much more Americans were going to drive in the coming years – they just extended the trend line.

Below is what that looked like since the early 1970s (via FRED Economic Data) . You’ll see that the total vehicle miles traveled went from somewhere around 1.1 trillion miles to around 3 trillion miles in and around the late 2000s. The shaded areas represent recessionary periods.

But then in 2007, something happened. Total vehicle miles traveled peaked, declined, and then flat lined at just under 3 trillion miles. Here’s what that looked like (the ending time period is October 2014):

However, since this was new for the FHWA, they continued to believe that this would ultimately correct itself and that total VMTs would eventually continue on their linear ascent. So here’s what their projections looked like (via State Smart Transportation Initiative) :

Clearly things didn’t go as planned.

But then in May of last year (2014), the FHWA finally changed its tune and released this forecast , which had the following projections:

It outlined 3 economic scenarios: a pessimistic one, a baseline one, and an optimistic one. In their baseline outlook, they believed that the annual growth rate for total vehicle miles traveled in the US would be 0.75% over a 30 year period running from 2012 to 2042.

At the same time, they also stated that population growth would average about 0.7% per year through this same period. This means that the FHWA has more or less conceded that total vehicles traveled per person will likely remain flat , which is a significant change from previous forecasts.

Now, given their track record, I don’t think any of us should put a lot of faith in the accuracy of these numbers. Per capita driving could flat line. But it might also go down, which is what it has been doing over the past few years .

Either way, I do think it’s worth thinking about this shift. It’s a pretty big deal.

Top Image: Flickr

Most of you have probably heard of the STEM subjects . STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. These academic fields have been the focus of many federal governments around the world as they have been seen as the key to driving innovation.

But what you may not have heard of is something called STEAM. I hadn’t heard about it until this morning. STEAM is an initiative being led by the Rhode Island School of Design to integrate art and design into national agendas pertaining to STEM. STEM + Art = STEAM.

Here’s a snippet from RISD :

The goal is to foster the true innovation that comes with combining the mind of a scientist or technologist with that of an artist or designer. RISD offers endless examples of how art and design education teaches the flexible thinking, risk-taking and creative problem solving needed to solve today’s most complex and pressing challenges – from healthcare to urban revitalization to global warming.

I couldn’t agree more with this initiative. As somebody who thought a lot about how to combine design and technology in my own career , I believe that there are huge benefits to a multidisciplinary approach to problem solving and innovation. In fact, it’s one of the reasons I decided to go to Rotman for my MBA (see  Business Design ).

So if you feel the same way, I would encourage you to add yourself and/or your company to the “STEM to STEAM map” that RISD has created. Click here to do that.

Yesterday the Urban Land Institute here in Toronto launched a great social media initiative called #CityResolve . The idea is that instead of making a personal New Year’s resolution, that you instead make one that would benefit your city as a whole. This is great for me because I don’t really believe in New Year’s resolutions .

You can read more about the initiative here , but all you have to do is tweet your resolve using #CityResolve . One person will be selected for a one-on-one meeting with Toronto’s Chief Planner, Jennifer Keesmaat  – where you could then pitch your idea directly to the top :)

For me though, I feel like I’ve already been acting on my resolve, which is this blog. When I started writing every day back in August 2013, I did so for myself, but also for a clear mission : To promote the building of beautiful, sustainable, and globally competitive cities. I don’t profess to have all the answers, but I hope to initiate the right kind of discussions.

If that feels like a cop out though, here’s another:

I love technology. My #CityResolve is to use my phone less in public and talk to more people (strangers). People are what make cities great.

— Brandon G. Donnelly (@donnelly_b) January 6, 2015

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What’s yours?

Image: Flickr