Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 223

Germany has, over the last 2 years, really gotten into balcony solar panels :

The ease of installation and a potent mix of government policies to encourage adoption has made the wee arrays hugely popular. More than  550,000 of them  dot cities and towns nationwide, half of which were installed in 2023. During the first half of this year, Germany added  200 megawatts  of balcony solar. Regulations limit each system to just 800 watts, enough to power a small fridge or charge a laptop, but the cumulative effect is nudging the country toward its clean energy goals while giving apartment dwellers, who make up  more than half  of the population, an easy way to save money and address the climate crisis.

Of course, there's only so much that panels like these can produce. By some estimates, a "large well-positioned balcony" might only produce 15% of a home's electricity needs. But hey, that's still something, and it seems like something that Toronto should be looking at.

We also have balconies.

One common mistake that people make when it comes to development pro forma is assuming that feasibility is easily attainable. It's not. In fact, it's best to think of a pro forma as a fragile object that is liable to break if not handled properly. So to that end, here's a non-exhaustive list of things you may want to keep in mind when trying to both forecast and create the future as a developer:

• As a starting point, you're safer assuming that your pro forma isn' t going to work. If the numbers look too good to be true or even just really promising -- especially at the outset -- then there's a good chance they're wrong. You've likely missed things. Be weary if it feels too easy, especially in our current market, where very little works.

• Cheap land isn't enough. Just because your land cost feels cheap, it doesn't mean that your development project will end up being feasible. There are instances and entire markets where even free land isn't enough . You might actually need a negative land value. Meaning, a subsidy is required to reach feasibility. This is the case with affordable housing.

• Drill down into as many line items as possible. Back-of-the-envelope math -- where you just plug in a few cost per square foot assumptions -- is fine for an initial screening. But if you're really serious, you need to get deep into the weeds. Run through the entire process in your mind and think about what might happen, and go wrong. Even with this, you will still miss things.

• Stress test your assumptions. What happens if the city asks you to do X? What happens if the local councillor comes at you with Y? Can your fragile object support them, or will it shatter to pieces? The sensitivity of your fragile object to various stimuli will help you decide whether you want to do the project or whether there's simply too much risk.

• Ultimately, real estate development is a creative act. You'll need to come up with creative solutions, and then you'll need to will your project to life. This is one way to tell that you're on the right path. It needs to feel really hard. So if your pro forma also feels this way, then there's a higher probability that you're narrowing in on something close to reality.

A long time ago, I attended an architecture presentation that started with talking about cabover trucks . See example above. Cabover is the name for trucks where the cab sits above the front axle. This is different from more conventional trucks where the engine sits in front of the driver. Here you get more of a flat face. Again, see above.

This truck style is credited to Viktor Schreckengost , who first came up with the design in 1932 and later patented it. And it's a pretty big deal in the history of trucking because of the simple fact that this design shaved several feet off the length of the tractor.

This meant something in the 1930s because, at the time, total truck lengths in the US were limited to 42 feet (12.8 m). So by minimizing the depth of the tractor, it created room for a bigger trailer. In building terms, Viktor had found a way to increase the ratio of rentable area to gross construction area.

The point of this example in the presentation was to show that good design solves real problems and that this is how their firm approaches projects. They aim to create value. And I remember this really resonating with me, because it's how I also like to think about design.

Admittedly, there is an element of design that involves making things look good. That's important too. But it's linked to solving problems. For example, one thing you'll often hear people say when talking about design is that things should look "intentional." You want to feel that real thought was put into it.

Arbitrary is bad. For some reason, it doesn't look as good.

Well, what could be more intentional than solving problems and creating value?

Image: Wikipedia