Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 316

As per tradition around here, I like to bookend the new year with two posts: a post that revisits my random predictions for the year and a post that talks about what might happen in the year to follow. Today's post is the former. So let's see how I did:

• I thought the interest rate hikes would come to an end in Q1-2023. But that didn't happen until the summer. I also thought this would lead to a mild recession in Canada. Technically, we are not actually in one, but according to some , we kind of are.

• I thought the real estate sector would start seeing some distress in the first half of the year, and that a new equilibrium would be found in the second half. This proved to be overly optimistic in terms of timing. A lot ended up being on pause for the entire year, and I now think that my forecast was at least a year too early. The sea change is still underway.

• Given the overall slowdown in real estate, I felt that construction costs had to see some softening. This did, in fact, happen with some of the "earlier trades", such as shoring and excavation, and we did see some specific trade pricing, such as concrete formwork, come down by as much as 30%. The smart cost consultants we work with now expect to see overall hard costs come down by a further 5-6% next year in Toronto. This makes sense given construction starts are way down.

• With me expecting the interest rate increases to stop in Q1, I thought that pre-construction condominium sales would return in a meaningful way by the spring. While we did see some buoyancy around that time, it was short lived. Sales remained nearly shutoff for the entire year, but for maybe a handful of projects. The more successful projects tended to be outside of the Toronto core and at lower price points.

• With respect to home prices in more tertiary/fringe markets, my sense then, as it is now, was that these prices would remain below the peaks for many years. In addition to the upward momentum created by low rates, my view was/is that some of this pricing was the result of a bet on urban decentralization. I don't think that has played out as many expected it to, so that's why I think it will be many years before the pricing we saw in early 2022 returns.

• The momentum around "expanding housing options" in our low-rise neighborhoods is many years in the making. And a lot of progress was made in 2023. Here in Toronto, we adopted new multiplex policies that now allow fourplexes plus an accessory dwelling (so 5 homes in total) on an as-of-right basis. I continue to believe that this momentum is only going to grow. I also think we will see the arrival of more mixed-use opportunities .

• I believed that, broadly speaking, urban transit ridership would remain below pre-pandemic levels for all of 2023. This proved to be the case for most US and Canadian cities. But things are improving. For Canada as a whole, it looks like we'll see full recovery sometime in 2024 based on this trend line .

• I thought 2023 was going to be the year I took my inaugural ride in an autonomous vehicle. Sadly, this didn't happen. The sector as a whole also saw some setbacks. Hopefully I'll get a chance next year.

• I assumed that Apple would finally release its augmented reality device. And though they didn't technically release Vision Pro , they did announce it. So I guess that counts for something. I also thought that 2023 would be a big year for "phygital" goods. Maybe it was. Or maybe it was more of a building year. A lot of people are curious to see how Vision Pro does in 2024. It's not set up for the mass market, just yet, but I think it will do exactly what it is supposed to once it's out in the wild.

• Finally, crypto. I know that a lot of you like to skip over these posts, but it is something that I feel strongly about. A year ago, though, I was pretty bearish on Solana. Boy was I wrong. Solana ended the year as the best performing major crypto asset -- up 933% at the time of writing this. Oops! However, Ether is also +91%, and I continued to dollar-cost average in all throughout the year.

Next up: What will, or more accurately, what might happen in 2024.

Search for the most iconic chair designs in the world and you'll likely come across a list that includes :

• Wassily Chair by Marcel Breuer (1928)

• Barcelona Chair by Mies van der Rohe (1929)

• Grand Consort by Charlotte Perriand, Le Corbusier, and Pierre Jeanneret (1928)

• The various Eames Chairs (starting in 1945)

• Wishbone Chair by Hans Wegner (1949)

• Wiggles Side Chair by Frank Gehry (1972)

• And the list goes on.

Most of these chairs also look as if they were just designed yesterday. Meaning, they're timeless and have stood the test of time. But they are mostly old er designs. Which raises an interesting question: How much does the passage of time play in a role in determining whether or not something is "iconic"?

There are some more recent designs that you could call iconic. The Roly-Poly Chair by Faye Toogood (2014) and the Louis Ghost Chair by Philippe Stark (2002) come to mind. This suggests that really great designs can become immediate classics. (Though, this latter example is a reinterpretation of a classic French chair that in and of itself is an icon.)

What I think is the mostly right answer is that, yeah, sometimes you can catch lighting in a bottle. The Louis Ghost Chair, for instance, is one of the top selling chairs of the 21st century. It's a clever and modern take that used new technologies (as is often the case) to revisit an old classic. Starck nailed it.

But more often than not, you probably need time. Time is what allows the object to form cultural associations in our mind and to prove that it is, in fact, timeless. However, if this is truly the case, then it makes it difficult to determine if we're still producing as many design icons today as we did in the past. We won't really know until they become old.

Image: Louis Ghost Chair via Knoll

The past week has felt more like a London winter, than a Toronto one. It has been mild, rainy, and gray. So right now feels like an opportune time to write about this solar-powered light/art piece called Sunne. Created by Marjan van Aubel, the light has been designed to hang right in front of a window using two simple cables. There's no need for an external power source, because it has an integrated battery that harvests sun during the day. The light then automatically turns on at sunset, and has the ability to simulate some pretty stunning sun experiences .

Now, if you happen to live in a place with a roof that gets good sun exposure, I suppose you could just install a bunch of solar panels and use them to generate power for cool-looking things in your home. But if you don't have the ability to do that -- for instance, maybe you live in a multi-family building -- then this feels like a clever and extremely beautiful way to harvest some amount of sun. I'm sure that, eventually, we'll have building facades that can generate a meaningful amount of solar power, but until then, you've got devices like Sunne.

P.S. For what it's worth, I'll take cold, snowy and sunny , over mild, rainy and gray , any day of the week.

Image: Sunne