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Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 484

Cover image for Income vs. wealth in California's housing market

Income vs. wealth in California's housing market

  • California
  • Generational-wealth
  • Housing

Here is a chart from MetroSight that compares housing tenure in California in 2000 and then between 2015-2019:

Two things you might notice immediately are that the number of renter-occupied households has generally increased and that the number of owner-occupied households without a mortgage (i.e. they own their home free and clear) has also increased for every age category except for those 65 or older.

MetroSight uses this data to argue that a new "wealth-related phenomenon is emerging" in California. Instead of the housing market being largely driven by income (that is, I make this much per year and I can afford this much house), it is being driven by accumulated wealth.

The possible explanations for this are as follows:

  • The share of renter-occupied households is increasing because people increasingly can't afford to buy

  • The share of owner-occupied houses with a mortgage is decreasing because less people can afford to buy given California's price-to-income ratios

  • The share of owner-occupied houses without a mortgage is increasing because people are increasingly inheriting homes or getting gifted cash from their families

Consider that the share of owner-occupied houses without a mortgage even increased for the 18-24 age category. Unless you're the next Zuckerberg (who was a billionaire at age 23), this is pretty challenging to do without some kind of assistance, especially in a place like California.

This outcome also provides a possible explanation for why the over 65 age category is the only segment that has seen a reduction in free and clear ownership. It is because they are transferring their wealth to the next generation so that they too can obtain homeownership.

Chart: MetroSight

Turns out, pedestrianization actually increases retail sales volumes

  • Market-street
  • Open-street-map
  • Pedestrianization

As many of you know, I have been keeping a close eye on the pedestrian-only pilot that is currently underway on Market Street . And judging from all the engagement that my tweets usually get, a lot of you would love to see a lot more of this kind of urbanism both here in Toronto and elsewhere. (When Kensington Market?) The below photo was taken on Friday evening and Cirillo's Academy , which is a culinary event space at the foot of the pedestrian-only stretch, was running some sort of event. All of the tables were filled with diners and it was basically a full fledged restaurant in the middle of the street. It was great to see.

https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1558261040890224641?s=20&t=3Ov1-0FqcctWaUrEsM--4w

But the question that always comes up with these sort of initiatives, particularly here in North America, is: Will it hurt the businesses? To answer that, here's a study that @economistcarson shared with me on Twitter that looks at the economic impact of street pedestrianization in Spanish cities . What the researchers did was essentially look at card transaction data from a major Spanish bank and then overlay it on top of land-use changes from an Open Street Map dataset. In doing so, they discovered some pretty important takeaways.

Here's what they found:

  • Pedestrianization actually increases retail sales volumes

  • Geographic location within a city tends to be insignificant

  • The two key factors for driving revenue are: (1) store density and (2) store category

  • For store category, the largest positive effect was observed for cafes, restaurants, bars, and other non-tradeable, local consumption activities

What this last point is saying is that people, at least in Spanish cities, tend to prefer pedestrian-friendly environments when it comes to experience-based activities. And that makes complete sense. On the other hand, if you're just running out for a little toilet paper and hemorrhoid cream, having a nice pedestrian-first experience is less critical. And this also makes sense.

Some of you, I'm sure, will correctly point out that Spain has, on average, better weather compared to a place like Canada. And that their store densities and overall densities are likely higher, and that they have deep historic urban fabrics to rely on. All of these things are certainly factors. But I don't think any of this should stop us from working to better optimize our cities for pedestrians. There are lots of successful examples all across Canada. It can work. Just look at Market Street.

Casey Neistat needs to make a YouTube video about cycling in High Park

  • Bike-lanes
  • Cycling
  • Cycling-war

I love High Park. It's the second largest green space in the City of Toronto and right beside the Junction neighborhood. But there are some problems. Despite having a subway line on its northern boundary, we've gotten the built form along its edges all wrong .

There's very little functioning retail. The densities and heights are not nearly high enough. The streets aren't great walking streets. And we've even gone and created undignified bus stops like this one here .

On top of all this, we're now doing this silly thing where police are ticketing cyclists for riding around the park with too much vigor and enthusiasm. I'm sure somebody called to complain and this is all reactionary politics, but an even bigger reaction has now been set off.

For those of you who haven't been following or aren't from Toronto, hundreds of cyclists took to the streets this week to peacefully protest what has been going on in High Park.

The Globe & Mail then followed it up with this important piece calling for an end to cars inside the park. The boundaries currently house about 5 km of roads and almost 600 parking spots.

https://twitter.com/jamespmcleod/status/1557853074542272514?s=20&t=jUSwdRpiiOfSbNXsfMIKCQ

Given all this, I figured now is probably a good time to revive one of Casey Neistat's original YouTube videos called "bike lanes." The story is that he gets a ticket for not riding in a bike lane. And so he films a video of himself only riding in bike lanes -- even if there are obstacles in his way.

https://youtu.be/bzE-IMaegzQ

It's an awesome video with nearly 30 million views. And I'm sure that many of you have felt like doing exactly what he does when faced with this same situation. I know I have.

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Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.