Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 505

Conventional wisdom suggests that cities are pretty dangerous. There's crime, the chance of getting killed, and there are lots of cars, some of which have a tendency to fly off the road and do bad things on occasion. And in some ways, this is true. Here is a chart from Bloomberg showing homicides per 100k people:

What this tells us is that if you live in a large metropolitan area in the US, you have a higher chance of being killed by someone else than if you were to live in a rural non-metro area. However, based on this data, one of the safest places you could actually live is in New York City. This might surprise some of you.

On top of this, if you layer on the chance of dying from a transportation-related accident, the absolute safest place you could live in America is in fact New York City:

This is because New Yorkers are only about a third as likely to die from a transportation-related accident as compared to the average American. Oddly enough, when you have a city where the vast majority of residents don't drive their own car around, people seem to die a lot less from traffic accidents.

But how does this compare to other cities around the world? Let's take Paris, which is another big and important global city. According to Bloomberg, the risk that Parisians face from possible killing and transportation accidents is about one-third that of New Yorkers. So it's even safer over there.

Turns out that some big cities aren't as dangerous as people might think. For the full Bloomberg article, click here .

So here's the headline: More people are moving to Manhattan than before the pandemic . This is true. But an even more accurate description might be that New York City was losing people before the pandemic and it is still losing people. But things have rebounded since the lows of the pandemic and it is now losing less people. Here are two charts from Bloomberg :

This is generally good news since the increased exodus (to places like Miami) led some to believe that one of the most important global cities in the world was now dying. I never thought that was the case. But there's no arguing against the fact that the fastest growing cities in the US are the ones with more affordable housing and fewer constraints on new development.

We have been talking about prefabricated and modular buildings for so long that it's easy to think it might never happen. ( Here's a related post that I wrote back in 2015.) There are also lots of groups that have tried and failed. Perhaps the most high profile is the bankruptcy of off-site construction company Katerra, which had raised some $2 billion in funding, but for whatever reason(s) couldn't figure things out.

That said, I'm starting to get the feeling that change might actually be underway in our industry. Over the last few months we've been talking about startups like Nabr . But there are many others, including Factory OS , which has been quietly building affordable housing in California (presumably far away from here ). To date, they have completed 10 buildings and over 1,200 units, and they have another 24 or so buildings in the pipeline.

This feels promising to me. And I think it's being aided by our current environment -- costs are way up and people are desperately searching for efficiencies. But if this is really going to transform our industry, I think we're going to need to be willing to make some sacrifices. Standardization and efficiency likely means making some concessions around design and overall specificity. Not every project can be custom, as is generally the case today.

That likely means that cities and communities will also need to become more forgiving when it comes to urban design guidelines. Could you please step your building back right here and follow this oblique angle that lines up with this important historic datum line? Nope, sorry, can't. Our production line can't accommodate that sort of change. Would you like the most affordable housing possible with today's means or would you like a custom design?