Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 576

I came across this chart in Charlie Bilello's latest newsletter. It was under the heading "the great reopening in 2 charts." The other chart was live nation (so concerts) vs. zoom. Both are showing returns over the last year. And both are showing a similar divergence between in-person and online activities.

Now, I'm not a Peloton guy.

But I know many people who swear (or swore) by them. Maybe it's because I've never been a class guy. I prefer to self direct myself at the gym and I like doing lots of different things. So I have a hard time believing that connected at-home gym equipment can completely supplant traditional gyms. There's also a social aspect to in-person workouts that I think a lot of people value. I personally find it more motivating to be working out around others.

But this wasn't the narrative last year. We were all going to move to the country, zoom into our meetings, and then switch to another sitting device and another screen so that we could connect with our trainers. For me, this chart is yet another reminder that 1) cities are resilient and 2) there are always opportunities in the midst of short-term market dislocations.

The last decade has been pretty good for many cities. Recent 2020 Census data tells us that of the 50 largest cities in the US, 46 of them grew their population over the last 10 years. On average, these 50 cities grew by about 8.5%, compared to 5.6% for the decade between 2000-2010.

As you might expect, the fastest growing cities tended to be in the south and the west. The top 3 fastest growing cities over the last decade were Fort Worth (24%), Austin (21.7%), and Seattle (21.1%). The cities with the biggest population declines were Detroit (-10.5%), Baltimore (-5.7%), Milwaukee (-3%).

It's important to keep in mind that city boundaries can skew these numbers depending on how they are drawn. A declining "city" population doesn't necessarily mean that the broader urban area is losing people. Though it does still tell you something about the "city."

Another thing that happened over the last decade is that most of the largest US cities continued to become more diverse. In 2000, white populations were a majority (>50%) in 25 of the 50 largest cities. This dropped to 17 cities in 2010 and then 14 cities last year (2020). Meaning that 36 of the largest cities are now "white minority" cities.

For more data check out this recent article from Brookings .

A few of us are in Ireland right now visiting with the suppliers who will be providing the windows, sliding doors, louvers, and glass for One Delisle . Thank you for the hospitality Flynn, Duggan Systems, and Carey Glass.

Below is a video showing a weather test that was done this morning. If any of you have been to the One Delisle Sales Gallery, you will probably recognize these sliding doors. They are fantastic.

https://videopress.com/v/MSqkI5vJ?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata

Many of us probably don’t think about the supply chain that exists behind the products and services that we consume. But it is there and there are lots of smart people working "behind the scenes" to make everything happen.

FYI, the doors passed.