Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 722

Two things struck me today.

First, I read Bloomberg Green's daily newsletter (Nathaniel Bullard) and came across the following statistic. In 2001, the world installed 290 megawatts of solar generating capacity. This year, the world is likely to install more than 100 gigawatts of solar -- that's 350x more per year than we were installing 19 years ago. You can also see how things have changed by looking at the above chart showing wind and solar asset financing per year.

Second, I read about Fred Wilson's SunPower Solar system and how, since May, he has been able to satisfy 91.5% of his home's electrical needs via solar (this includes an electric vehicle). In fact, during the month of May when temperatures were a bit cooler, he had a surplus. He was producing more than he was consuming, and so he was selling that excess production back into the grid. It wasn't until the summer months and higher AC usage that he started having a shortfall.

Now I don't know where his house is located or what its roof looks like, but it is interesting to consider both the macro and micro scale. 91.5% signals to me that it shouldn't be much longer before many people and many homes no longer need to draw any power from the grid. That's going to be a game changer.

Chart: Bloomberg Green

The United States and the United Kingdom recently published some official statistics on the impacts that this pandemic has had on ecommerce. The above chart is from Benedict Evans and he has some more over here . It's worth a click through. What is clear is that lockdown forced a whole bunch of adoption and accelerated trends that were already underway. More people turned to shopping online. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30%. And the US went from 17% to about 22%. What is also clear is that grocery has demonstrated to be exceptionally resilient. Most physical retailers saw a decline in sales during lockdown. Grocery proved to be a notable exception. But what is unclear is how much of this adoption will actually stick. The UK is reporting monthly (as opposed to quarterly for the US) and already you can see signs of a possible reversion. My guess is that -- provided we don't see another major lockdown -- there will be a meaningful reversion before the trend line resumes its march.

https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1295866743605395456?s=20

Over the years, I have written a few times about the great balcony debate. It's a discussion that comes up time and time again as those of us in the building industry go through the process of designing new residential buildings. One the one hand there are the arguments that balconies don't really get used all that much and that they are bad for the environment (thermal bridging through the slabs). And on the other hand there's the argument that, regardless of whether or not they actually get used, they form an important part of the buying/renting decision. Usually the former is made by architects and engineers and the latter is made by sales and marketing teams.

Back in 2016, I remarked that I was starting to see more Juliet balconies across Toronto (could have been some sort of bias at work -- like when you're shopping for a new car and then all you can see is that new car). Regardless, there are countless examples of architects and developers omitting balconies and finding creative ways to connect inside and out. But given that this pandemic has forced us to reconsider and reallocate how we use space in our cities, it's probably worth revisiting the great balcony debate. Has COVID-19 changed how we view outdoor space? And if so, will it last?

I've decided to start with a Twitter survey ( see above tweet ) and then either do a long-form article or a series of posts on the topic. If you have any thoughts that you would like to share (ideally before I write), please leave a comment below or on Twitter .