Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 747

The latest condo market data from Urbanation is encouraging. As I reported last month , April was a very slow month, which isn't surprising given that it was the first full month of lockdown. Residential resales across the Greater Toronto Area were down 67% year-over-year.

In May, we have seen resale condominium sales increase by almost 60% compared to April, though they are still down by a wide margin compared to last year. The average sale price also increased by 7.9% compared to April and by 3.4% compared to last year. This puts resale condominium prices in line with what we were seeing in Q4-2019.

The rental condo market (that is, condos being rented out via MLS) also showed signs of stabilizing. Leases increased by 75% compared to April, outpacing the number of new listings (66%). Rental rates remained more or less flat (0.3%) compared to April, but they are down by about 5% compared to their Q3-2019 high.

On the new construction side, we have only really seen a handful of new launches/releases. Units are selling, but it still feels a bit early, at least for me, to really determine where we're at in terms of pricing and velocity. Nevertheless, I suspect that we will see a significantly stronger fall market come September.

Harvard economist Ed Glaeser and former New York City Health Commissioner Mary Bassett were recently interviewed on national radio about COVID-19 and the future of our cities. What both of them touch on is the long history that cities and pandemics have had together, which is something that Glaeser also wrote about over here in City Journal . This pandemic isn't the first and it won't be the last.

Using history as an example, Glaeser makes the argument all of this can go one of two ways. After the influenza epidemic of 1919, cities rebounded quickly. The roaring twenties were one of "the great city-building decades in American history." But on the other hand, there's the Justinian Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE), which is thought to have played an important role in the fall of the Roman Empire. Glaeser argues that this plague, which took over 200 years to extinguish, is responsible for 800 years of de-urbanization across the Mediterranean. Is that so?

A quick search reveals that the impacts of the Justinian Plague are, of course, greatly contested. Some scholars have questioned whether it was actually an "inconsequential pandemic." Whatever the case may be, it doesn't change the fact that the modern world has been built around density and proximity. We are social beings and we are smarter and more productive when we are able to cluster together. That was the case in 750 CE and it remains the case today.

This week, Alex Bozikovic (of the Globe and Mail) dropped the news that a new supertall by Herzog & de Meuron is being planned for the northwest corner of Bay and Bloor here in Toronto. The developers are Kroonenberg Group and ProWinko, both of which are based / have their roots in the Netherlands. At 87 storeys and 324 meters, it would be the tallest building in Canada if it were built today. The proposal includes retail, office, and residential uses.

The first thing that everybody is talking about is the tower's slenderness ratio (the upper floors are said to be about 7,300 square feet). I'm not a structural engineer, but the structural engineers that I do know are telling me that this tower will almost certainly require a tuned mass damper at the top of the building for lateral stiffness. The tower is very narrow in its east-west direction (see below) and so it will perform as a kind of "sail" in the wind. But as New York and other cities have shown us, this can be done.

Another feature of this building is its double skin facade. As far as I know, this would be the first residential building in Toronto to have one (please correct me if I'm wrong). In fact, the only building that I can think of off the top of my head is the Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research, University of Toronto by Behnisch Architekten and architectsAlliance. (For the record, and as far as I know, I am not related to the donor for this building -- but what a great last name.)

Usually the idea behind a double skin facade is to create an air cavity between both skins and then ventilate it. To reduce cooling loads in the summer, shading devices are also usually added within this air cavity. The system works by trapping and then extracting solar heat gain before it reaches the inside of the building. Engineers and real architects tell me that this generally works a lot better than a typical interior blind, because at that point you've already let a lot of the heat inside of your conditioned space.

I am a big fan of ambition. And this project is certainly ambitious. For more about the proposal, check out the Globe and Mail .

Update: This project is being done in collaboration with Quadrangle Architects of Toronto.

Images: Herzog & de Meuron