Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 757

Today I am going to talk about 3 things that recently happened and/or that are on my mind.

Sidewalk Labs pulled out of Toronto. I think this is sad. A lot of people have said that they're surprised, but not surprised. The official reason is that this unprecedented environment has made it financially infeasible for them to develop the 12-acre site, while still adhering to their core principles. I don't have any inside knowledge of the situation, but I can't help but think that this is probably just an opportune excuse. They were getting beat up pretty badly by Toronto on all fronts, even though they had put forward an incredibly ambitious development proposal. As I said before , I can't imagine many (or any) "conventional" developers coming forward with something like this. The last plan I saw was 1/3 non-residential, and 40% of the residential component was to be priced below market. And never mind all of the other innovations that were being contemplated.

In other tech news, Uber just led a $170 million investment in Lime (the micromobility scooter company). I think this is smart -- both from an overall mobility standpoint and, selfishly, as a shareowner of $UBER. It is being reported that this round of investment values Lime at about $510 million. This is a 79% decline from April 2019 when it raised its last round. So presumably, Uber is getting a pretty good deal here. The bet is that the urban landscape demands multi-modal transportation solutions, everything from bikes and scooters to cars and public transit. There is also an argument to be made that in the short-term , our post-pandemic world is going to gravitate toward individual mobility and away from things like public transit. I've heard a few people say that, as we re-open the global economy and try to maintain social distancing, we're going to face two major mobility bottlenecks: transit and elevators. Sounds like more testing would be a prudent idea.

Above, I was very careful to say "in the short-term" because I think the narrative that is emerging around the demise of urban density is entirely overblown. Few of us are clamoring to jump back into a mosh pit right now (perhaps a metaphorical mosh pit), but I also don't believe that we will suddenly look to sprawling Brasilia as a source of urban inspiration. While it is true that " disease did shape architecture in the 20th century " ( Alex Bozikovic wrote a good piece on this over the weekend) and that there have been oscillations in terms of how we view urbanity, I also know that this isn't the first pandemic that our cities have lived through. The Hong Kong flu of 1968 is thought to have killed one million people around the world after, allegedly, emerging in one of the densest cities ever created. Hong Kong's relationship with Beijing is a tenuous one right now, but it still remains one of the world's most important global cities.

Perhaps cities are more resilient than we give them credit for.

Photo by  Touann Gatouillat Vergos  on  Unsplash

https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1255487733012856833?s=20

Somehow -- even after I sarcastically put out the above tweet -- I ended up on a BISNOW panel next week about the impact of COVID-19 on Toronto's residential real estate market.

When I was asked if I would do it, I replied with: "Does this mean I will need to put on pants?" That was interpreted as a, "yes, I will join the panel." And so here we are.

It's on Wednesday, May 13 at 2:30pm. Steve Keyzer of Gin & Sonic fame (Colliers International) and Kevin Stark (Trinity Development Group) are also speaking on the panel. To register, click here . I'll do my best to be as controversial as possible.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that the median home price across the United States rose 8% year-over-year in March to $280,600. One explanation for this is that while, yes, demand did drop off, so too did supply and that has led to a shortage of available housing. The other possible explanation is that these March deals were papered earlier in the year (or late last year) when most of us were blissfully unaware of what was about to happen and so the real impact of this pandemic isn't yet showing up in these numbers.

Let's drill down.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board also released numbers today , but for the month of April. Not surprisingly, residential resales across the region are down by 67% compared to April 2019. The number of listings is also down by a similar amount (-64.1%). Overall though, pricing remained relatively flat (0.1% increase). And by overall I mean for all housing types and for all areas of the region. There are larger variances within specific areas and for certain types. See below.

Drilling down even further, my friend and agent Christopher Bibby noted in his monthly newsletter over the weekend that transaction volumes in the central (resale) condominium market are down some 85-90%. So the market is effectively at a standstill. Those who do not need to sell or move are justifiably deciding not to right now. But just as Warren Buffet got on stage over the weekend -- with some great flowy hair , I might add -- and told us in Times New Roman never to bet against America, I am not about to bet against Toronto. This too shall pass.