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"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally" (03 March 2025)
General Sir Alexander Richard David Shirreff, KCB, CBE - retired senior British Army officer and author. From 2011-2014 he served as NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
What's the plan if the biggest risk to European security is America?
This is a companion article to 'Europe is on the Menu' (I recommend reading that first if possible - as it is not all doom and gloom I promise, though it is pretty sobering):
First up, this article is not anti-American despite the tongue-in-cheek title. I have great sympathy for the majority of Americans that are now suffering this fascistic sadistic American administration and did not vote for Trump. However, this is not just about Trump. America has been lurching ever further right at least since Reagan (with a few pauses or breathing spaces in between).
That said, this American administration is full of a'holes and they are currently rapidly changing the guard. This means new Generals and officers that are, above all, loyal to Trump and the MAGA fascists. Europe has very little time to prepare for the worst.
However, it is obvious to anyone the biggest risk European countries (and the still nascent European project) face is in fact from this fascist America administration.
If you do not have time to read my previous articles about Trump - and this collection of internationalist extremists including about Project 2025 - then please just read this short summary (People's Guide) prepared by a US civil liberties organisation.
"a systemic, ruthless plan to undermine the quality of life of millions of Americans, remove critical protections and dismantle programs for communities across the nation, and prioritize special interests and ideological extremism" (The People's Guide to Project 2025)
Does anyone seriously think this collection of fascist racists (with a predilection for sexual abuse of women and children) have any interest in protecting the European Union, European countries, democracy, the rule of law or human rights?
Europe is in a complete mess when it comes to ensuring it has strategic and tactical military independence since it has largely trusted (and paid) the US for its defence needs:
78% of total procurement spending went to non-EU suppliers between mid-2022 and mid-2023.
63% of total procurement spending went to the US between mid-2022 and mid-2023.
80% of Member States’ defence investments since 2022 have been implemented with non-EU suppliers (i.e. the situation is worsening).
89% increase in acquisitions made through the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) in the EU between 2021 and 2022.
Project 2025 includes the strategy to increase foreign spending on US weaponry. In effect to ensure weaker countries continue to fund the US war machine (to further dominate them).
“[aim to] reverse the recent dip in FMS [Foreign Military Sales] to ensure both that our partners remain interoperable with the United States and that our defense industrial base regains much-needed capacity in preparation for future challenges.” (Project 2025)
The USA has long made efforts to keep Europe reliant upon it for military and security purposes enabled by a succession of NATO chiefs including Europeans like Mark Rutte.
European Defence Capabilities and Dependencies
"We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment.” (President Macro)
I have no specialist knowledge in military matters or technical issues. I have therefore collated diverse up to date useful sources of data and generated a series of AI summaries on the European Defence Industry Capabilities and Dependencies.
It is obvious from a cursory review of the sources that decoupling from dependency on the US is a multi-year project with very significant risks now the US is not an ally.
Every Euro or dollar spent on buying American-Israeli weapons means two terrible things:
Europe is funding the USA to replenish its stock of military material with newer weaponry whilst further increasing European dependence on the USA: in respect of complex weaponry we must expect they will have built in back doors (kill switches) and in respect of electronic equipment, that where technically feasible, it will be used to spy on European armed forces. In addition, supplies can be stopped at any time.
Europe is funding the fascist takeover of America and much of the Western world (Project 2025) including itself.
Increased European military and related technologies (such as telecommunications) spending could be used to advance European built and maintained technologies, European industrial bases and provide jobs for Europeans at a time when the global economy is about to go into free-fall. It would also have the effect of bringing Europeans together to defend each other and collaborate.
Instead we are outsourcing our security to a rapacious administration in America that forms a new Axis of powers Russia-USA-Israel.
Europe is a rotting Swiss cheese full of American holes
"Many of these countries have been poisoned by intrigue before they were struck down by violence. They have been rotted from within before they were smitten from without. How else can you explain what has happened to France?-to the French Army, to the French people, to the leaders of the French people?" (Winston Churchill)
Actually, today it is France that should be applauded for maintaining a degree of independence from US military dominance.
Europe is currently rotting from within. We have allowed enemies of democracy, human rights and diversity to infiltrate our societies, media and political establishments. They actively seek to destroy Europe as a super-state whilst it is still a youth and they are supported by Russia, Israel and this US administration.
"For the purposes of this report, Europe corresponds with the United States European Command (EUCOM) AOR. CRS identified 31 persistent bases and 19 other military sites to which DOD has access in the region.41 As of March 2024, approximately 67,200 active-duty servicemembers were permanently assigned to overseas bases in Europe, with the largest contingents assigned to locations in Germany (35,068), Italy (12,375) and the United Kingdom (10,058)... In June 2024, the White House stated in a letter to congressional leaders that “approximately 80,000 United States Armed Forces personnel are assigned or deployed to North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] countries in Europe, including those deployed to reassure our allies and to deter further Russian aggression.”
New Defence Cooperation Agreements (Nordic region)
However, the situation in Europe is much worse than this 2024 report might suggest.
In the last few years, the US has actively been seeking to massively increase the presence particularly in the Nordic region - going from one base in Greenland and one in Iceland to 47 bases and areas in total. It has done so with bilateral (non-NATO) agreements, which makes matters worse.
"The proposed eight areas amount to a tripling of US bases in Norway. Together with the corresponding bases that the US has requested in Denmark, Sweden, and Finland, the US will go from having one military base in Iceland and one in Greenland to having a total of 47 bases in the Nordics – of which 15 are on the Cap of the North,"
These agreements, instigated by America, give the American military extraordinary power in the relevant locations. From the American side, people like Antony Blinken have been instrumental in ensuring they have been implemented.
The US initiative to implement these new bases bilaterally in these last few years is chilling. They have just voted against Ukraine and Europe with Russia and Israel in the UN. If you are not deeply worried you have simply not being paying any attention.
It would be a grave error of judgment to think that Blinken and the Biden administration can be trusted more than Trump on geo-political issues. For the purposes of European defence strategy and game theory, these administrations must be be treated as a continuity (whatever assumptions you want to make to help you sleep more comfortably). A mistake on this matter will costs millions of lives and ruin Europe for generations and potentially for ever (in respect of a collective European community).
So the question is why would an administration that was planning to side with Russia against Europe want over 40 non-NATO bases stretching from Russia to Norway?
"It appears that Blinken does not need to be coerced: when it comes to abetting Israeli war crimes, he is a volunteer. Biden and Blinken’s collaborative efforts to destroy Israel’s proclaimed enemies date back decades. In 2003, they sought to partition Iraq along ethnic lines; their destructive plan was rejected. Since October 2023, they have repeatedly defended Israel’s war crimes and played down the enormous Palestinian death toll. Blinken has been accused of violating the Leahy Law by refusing to sanction Israeli soldiers who committed rape and murder. Blinken’s absolutist stance on Israel is part of why people quit the Biden administration.
WTF has happened to our intelligence capabilities? Do we run everything through the USA and its 51st State of Israel?
How have we got here? Is it the same way America got to the point of having a criminal conspiracy take over their Government nearly 10 years ago?
Have we let ourselves we boiled slowly so that we never even noticed that we were the dinner?
Use of agreed areas and exertion of authority
In the agreed areas, the USA will be able to exercise and train, deploy forces, and store materiel – jointly with the respective country. American forces can also gain exclusive access and right of use to parts of these areas by separate agreement.
American force members can exercise authority over the citizens of the country in question within and in the immediate vicinity of such areas. In extraordinary cases, American forces may also take such measures beyond the immediate vicinity of agreed areas.
I have created a map showing all active and planned US bases in Europe which I will maintain.
Note particularly the extraordinary way in which the new American bases lead all the way from Russian to Norway. If America is now the biggest threat to Europe, then we have effectively provided them with a road and route map to our own defeat via the Northern route.
It is also interesting to note the coincidence of the new US military bases with many major mineral deposits in Northern Europe. As we know this drives much of the current American geopolitical strategy (Ukraine, Greenland, Canada).
We have zero reasons to hope that access to natural resources is not driving American calculations in respect of Northern Europe (and every reason to suspect it is!).
If you live in Norway, Sweden, Denmark or Finland write to your local politician and the defence minister and ask them what strategic risk analysis they have done for these risks. Don't let them off with saying they couldn't have known. These risks started to grow a decade ago, when Trump first ran for President and they accelerated when it was clear he would not be prosecuted for sedition.
I must point out the extraordinary complacency in Europe. It has left us needing to do a rapid 180 degree turn to protect our territorial integrity, to give Europe a chance to grow up from a youth into adulthood (and thank God for French stubbornness in not buying into the Anglo-American dream).
If my words, or these inconvenient facts, sting – well good!
Let it sting you into coordinated action (as I try to sting myself).
"In February 2024, Norway agreed to amend a 2021 defense agreement with the U.S. to allow unimpeded access to 12 military areas in Norway, up from four. On May 30, 2024, the parliament in Oslo approved the agreement 85-12."
Norway has expanded its defense agreement with the United States, increasing the number of pre-defined military facilities and areas from 4 to 12. This includes new areas in northern Norway such as Andøya, Bardufoss, and Setermoen.
"It also allows for deployment of U.S. military personnel, weapons, ammunition, and military equipment in Finland. In addition, the agreement covers the establishment of certain military zones, which will include facilities that will be accessible only to U.S. personnel."
Finland signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement with the U.S. in December 2023, granting American forces access to 15 installations across Finland, including 5 locations in Lapland. In addition to some exclusively American only bases.
Sweden approved a Defense Cooperation Agreement with the U.S. in June 2024, giving U.S. forces access to 17 Swedish military bases and training grounds.
”The Defense Cooperation Agreement is a historic agreement for Denmark. It will strengthen defense and security cooperation with our most important ally. Strong bilateral ties and close cooperation with the United States in NATO are crucial for our security in Europe. The agreement will improve access to Danish territory for American military personnel. This will enable the United States to contribute even more to our collective defense and deterrence in Europe – a core responsibility for NATO”, says Danish Minister of Defence Troels Lund Poulsen."
Specifically, the agreement will allow American personnel access to three Danish air bases in Karup, Skrydstrup, and Aalborg. In addition Denmark is actively encouraging this Trump administration to take greater control over Greenland at a time when he is threatening to take it away from Denmark.
