This year’s government work report proposes to take multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 7, China’s total import and export value in the first two months of this year was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year. Among them, the export was 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%; Imports reached 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, and foreign trade continued to maintain a good momentum.

In terms of major commodities, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value, of which the export of electronic components and automobile increased by 24% and 99.1% respectively. In terms of import, the import of mechanical and electrical products and agricultural products was 1.11 trillion yuan and 225.44 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 6.7% and 7.7%.

Li Kuiwen, director of the statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of customs, pointed out that China’s foreign trade import and export maintained a steady growth year-on-year in the first two months. Although the external environment faced by foreign trade development is more complex and uncertain, it still achieved a stable start, which is mainly due to China’s strong economic toughness, the long-term fundamentals have not changed, and the steady growth policies and measures are moving forward.

Stable opening of foreign trade

Customs data show that from January to February 2022, China’s total import and export value was 6.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Among them, the export was 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%; Imports reached 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%. In US dollars, the import and export scale in the first two months exceeded US $900 billion to US $973.45 billion, an increase of 15.9%.

Li Kuiwen pointed out that in the first two months, China’s foreign trade structure continued to be optimized, with general trade imports and exports of 3.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. The import and export of private enterprises reached 2.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and the proportion increased by 1.1 percentage points to 48.2% compared with the same period last year, becoming an important force in the growth of China’s foreign trade.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the increase in the proportion of private enterprises is the embodiment of China’s strong support for the development of private enterprises, continuous efforts to do a good job in the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” and the flexible operation mechanism of private enterprises. Private enterprises have made a very important contribution to stabilizing employment and can drive the activity of the consumer economy, which can not be underestimated for China’s stabilizing foreign trade.

Bai Ming believes that such achievements can be achieved by “opening the door” of foreign trade, which is basically in line with expectations. From January to February 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade showed negative growth. Therefore, the high growth of foreign trade in 2021 has restorative components, filtering the abnormal fluctuations caused by the epidemic, and China’s foreign trade is gradually returning to a reasonable growth range.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, told the 21st century economic report that from the perspective of trend, due to the high base factor and the slowdown of the global epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s import and export slowed down, but both import and export maintained double-digit growth, showing the resilience and strength of China’s foreign trade.

Zhou Maohua analyzed that, on the one hand, from the relevant indicators of major economies, global demand is still on the track of recovery; On the other hand, China’s epidemic prevention situation is improving as a whole, and China’s foreign trade continues to remain resilient with the support of industrial foundation, supporting production capacity, infrastructure and stable foreign trade policies. On the whole, the global epidemic is not over yet, the recovery of supply chain and industrial chain needs a process, and the effect of order substitution is still on.

It is worth noting that from January to February this year, the EU became China’s largest trading partner.

Customs statistics show that in the first two months, China’s imports and exports with the EU, ASEAN and the United States were 874.64 billion yuan, 870.47 billion yuan and 785.92 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4%, 10.5% and 9.7% respectively. Over the same period one country and the “one belt, one road” countries have increased their import and export volume by 1 trillion and 920 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3%, which is faster than the overall 5 percentage point.

Bai Ming analyzed that both ASEAN and EU have growth potential for China’s foreign trade. The EU meets China’s industrial transformation and upgrading needs, especially in high-end fields. ASEAN, as China’s one belt, one road has a number of FTA agreements such as RCEP. The “one belt and one way” is also promoting trade between China and ASEAN. ASEAN and China may become the first trading partner in the future.

China has one belt, one road, and the other countries along the way, “Bai Ming said.” the infrastructure is hard to link up, and more trade is coming. China has promoted the one belt, one road, high quality development. From the perspective of high growth, we have achieved solid achievements.

Li Kuiwen pointed out that China’s total imports and exports to RCEP trading partners amounted to 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. With the gradual release of the dividends of RCEP system, the economic and trade development achievements of RCEP members will be further demonstrated.

Bai Ming believes that with the successful completion of major projects such as the China Railway and the old fellow countries such as Japan and Vietnam, the trade volume of China’s RCEP member countries will further increase.

Take multiple measures to ensure stability and improve quality

Earlier, at the press conference held by the state information office, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao stressed that the pressure to stabilize foreign trade this year is very huge, and the situation is also very complex and severe. This year, China’s economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. On this basis, the elimination of superimposed phased factors and further growth on the “high base” will be under great pressure.

According to Zhou Maohua’s analysis, the current situation facing foreign trade is still complex and severe, the overseas epidemic has not been fully controlled, and the geopolitical conflict and the shift of European and American policies have exacerbated the uncertainty of the prospects for global supply chain repair and economic recovery; The rise of bulk commodities, the obstruction of shipping logistics and the fluctuation of global financial markets have also caused great pressure on China’s stable foreign trade.

“At present, the prices of energy and some commodities continue to rise, which has an spillover effect on the global economic recovery and financial market fluctuations, and will also pose a certain pressure on some foreign trade enterprises in China.” Zhou Maohua said.

Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice president of China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that 2022 is a key year for China’s foreign trade and efforts should be made to solve various difficulties faced by enterprises. At present, the most important thing is to implement the various stable foreign trade policies that have been issued. Although the overall growth momentum of foreign trade will be weakened, the inflection point of the peak of foreign trade has not yet been reached