Trump’s political unpredictability and whirlwind style make it nearly impossible to forecast what will happen next week—let alone next month or year—rendering Bitcoin’s future trajectory even more uncertain.

A Turbulent Start
As Trump marks 100 days since his return to the White House, global markets have been roiled by uncertainty and chaos.

When Trump secured re-election, the crypto community was hopeful. Yet despite his pro-Bitcoin rhetoric, the reality has left many disappointed.

Just before his inauguration, Trump launched his official token, $TRUMP, sparking market frenzy and controversy. Critics called it a blatant conflict of interest, even a national security risk.

Today, $TRUMP has plunged 82% from its January 19 all-time high of $75.35. First Lady Melania’s token, $MELANIA, fared worse, crashing nearly 97%.

Unfulfilled Expectations
Speculation swirled that Trump would sign a flurry of crypto-friendly executive orders on Day One, including creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve. None materialized. Bitcoin briefly hit a record $109,000 on January 20 but hasn’t returned since.

Trump did fulfill some campaign promises: Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road darknet market, received a full pardon after 11 years in prison. Sam Bankman-Fried is reportedly lobbying for clemency, but so far, no luck.

His cabinet appointments were a mixed bag. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a Bitcoin advocate, sailed through confirmation. Others, like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, faced scrutiny over ties to Tether.

David Sacks, appointed as the first AI and Crypto "Czar," drew praise despite selling his BTC, ETH, and SOL holdings pre-confirmation.

The "American Crypto Reserve" Whiplash
On March 2, Trump abruptly announced plans for a U.S. crypto reserve featuring XRP, Solana, and Cardano—omitting Bitcoin and Ethereum initially. The altcoins surged up to 70%, but backlash was swift. Experts called the idea "absurd" and "chaotic," questioning its feasibility.

Days later, Trump pivoted, signing an order to create a Bitcoin-dominated reserve—with a catch: No new BTC purchases unless budget-neutral, mostly from seized assets. The news triggered a sell-off, dashing hopes of a 1-million-Bitcoin accumulation.

Arkham Intelligence reports the U.S. holds ~198,000 BTC ($18.8B), but 95,000 may return to Bitfinex. Still, proponents like Samson Mow argue the policy’s symbolic impact could spur global adoption.

Market Fallout and Tariff Turmoil
A March 7 White House crypto summit featuring industry heavyweights like Michael Saylor and Brian Armstrong was dismissed as "political theater." Meanwhile, Trump faced accusations of tanking stocks to pressure the Fed into rate cuts.

The "Liberation Day" tariffs in April worsened the downturn, pushing Bitcoin toward $75,000—30% below its inauguration peak. A temporary 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) offered brief relief, but erratic policy shifts have left investors exhausted, flocking to gold.

Regulatory and Political Crosswinds
Trump’s attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated, with threats to fire him—a move that could destabilize markets further if legal barriers fall.

Last week, the Senate confirmed pro-crypto Paul Atkins as SEC chair, replacing Gary Gensler. His first test: deciding on altcoin ETFs like XRP.

As for $TRUMP, its team is staging a "VIP dinner" for top holders to revive interest—spiking its value 64% amid accusations of a pump-and-dump scheme.

The Road Ahead
Bitcoin is down 12% since inauguration, while the S&P 500 fell 8.6%. A CNN poll shows 59% of Americans believe Trump’s policies worsened the economy, with 60% blaming him for inflation.

Market optimism is fading: Polymarket odds of Bitcoin surpassing $110K by year-end dropped to 67%, with $150K at just 30%—a stark contrast to January’s bullish forecasts.

With Trump’s unpredictability, predicting Bitcoin’s path is fraught. As the next 1,361 days unfold, one rule holds: Expect the unexpected.

Key Takeaways:

• Policy whiplash: Trump’s crypto reserve plan shifted from altcoins to BTC, disappointing bulls.

• Market strains: Tariffs and Fed turmoil dragged crypto alongside stocks.

• Regulatory shifts: New SEC leadership may greenlight altcoin ETFs, but political volatility looms.

• Sentiment slump: Once-rosy price targets now seem distant amid economic fears.