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What’s the Next Hot Narrative in Crypto After the TRUMP Frenzy?
Alpha First
While the overall market remains healthy, there are signs of overextension, and the next wave of mainstream investment direction is still unclear.
Has Trumpcoin marked the peak of the memecoin frenzy? Should we now turn our attention to SocialFi?
Emerging hotspots like SocialFi, AI, and Dinocoins are vying for market attention.
Market Conditions
Despite recent volatility, I believe the market is still in a healthy state. Looking at the three core indicators of the crypto market, the performance is very positive.
Bitcoin Consolidates at High Levels, Showing Strength
Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the top of its range, indicating strong market sentiment rather than weakness. Currently, around $105,000 seems to be a critical level for Bitcoin. This level reflects market confidence in the long-term development of cryptocurrencies while avoiding excessive optimism.
Bitcoin’s consolidation at high levels signals a healthy market.
Although we haven’t seen major news—such as strategic Bitcoin reserves (BSR) or comprehensive tax incentives for cryptocurrencies—the market has still made some progress. For example, Ross Ulbricht’s pardon is a low-key but significant signal that the Trump administration hasn’t entirely abandoned pro-crypto policies. While regulatory transparency is improving slowly, the overall trend is positive.
Steady Growth in Stablecoin Supply
Another positive signal is the continuous growth in stablecoin supply. Historically, an increase in stablecoin supply has been a reliable precursor to institutional interest and enhanced market liquidity. The question worth pondering is: Who is minting these stablecoins on such a large scale?
Stablecoin supply continues to grow, releasing bullish signals.
Judging by the scale of minting, institutions are indeed entering the market. If you doubt this, check the data from @whale_alert and other on-chain monitoring tools. Although this hasn’t yet been reflected in altcoin performance, capital is flowing into the market.
Expansion of the Total Crypto Market Cap
Narrative Risk: Loss of Market Direction
One major reason for the lack of significant volatility in the altcoin market is the absence of a clear narrative direction. This is what’s known as “narrative risk”—when the market loses its direction, capital may flow into the wrong investment themes, increasing risk.
Take the recent memecoin frenzy as an example. Although Trump didn’t announce strategic Bitcoin reserves (BSR) or other major news, he did launch a memecoin. Subsequently, Melania also launched a similar token, and there were even rumors that Barron might join in. Traders showed great enthusiasm for these opportunities, myself included.
However, this sudden memecoin frenzy has filled the market with uncertainty, leaving more questions than answers. Is this a supercycle for memecoins, or a sign of a top? Should we refocus on AI tokens? Why is XRP’s price chart performing so strongly? Even the market itself seems unable to pinpoint where capital should be concentrated.
Memecoins: The Frenzy May Be Nearing Its End
I regret to inform you that memecoin trading may have entered its final wave. Trump’s entry has overwhelmingly captured attention and market share in this space, and his influence cannot be underestimated. The question now is: Who else can launch a memecoin on a similar scale? The answer is likely “no one.”
As Kel put it, we’ve exhausted our “attention resources.”
Memecoins are essentially about tokenizing attention. They rely on attracting public attention and converting it into speculative capital. Over the years, this model has driven explosive growth in the memecoin market. However, with Trump’s entry, this model may have peaked. Trump isn’t just an ordinary celebrity or influencer; he represents the majority of global attention. No other figure or event can rival his dominance in culture and media.
Therefore, memecoins as an asset class may have reached their peak. The growth space for tokenizing attention has been fully tapped. Of course, Trumpcoin may still see further gains, and it might even trigger one last parabolic rise for other memecoins. But this feels more like an epilogue than a new chapter.
SocialFi (Clout and Yapster)
If the memecoin narrative is to continue, it needs to shift toward a more sustainable and scalable model. This is where SocialFi comes in. By combining speculative enthusiasm with deeper, more personalized interactions, SocialFi has the potential to extend the memecoin story. Instead of betting on cultural phenomena or celebrity tokens, SocialFi offers an opportunity to invest in personal relationships and community dynamics. From this perspective, it’s a natural evolution of the memecoin concept—moving from pure attention conversion to more meaningful interactions and long-term value creation.
Why SocialFi Deserves Attention
SocialFi is a potential hotspot worth watching. Successful projects in this space could blend elements of social media and online gaming, creating a hybrid platform that’s both engaging and profitable. Imagine a combination of “social platforms and online entertainment,” with massive adoption potential.
Currently, two projects stand out:
Clout: Clout focuses on tokenizing social influence, allowing users with large followings (10,000+) to create personal tokens. Built on Solana, it combines Friend.tech’s monetization features while simplifying token issuance and integrating with decentralized exchanges like Raydium. Clout has seen early success, with its first token, $PASTERNAK, reaching an $80 million market cap within hours. Its seamless registration process via credit cards and Apple Pay significantly lowers the entry barrier for Web2 users. However, its open structure disperses liquidity across multiple influencers, potentially weakening community cohesion.
Yapster: Yapster is another innovative SocialFi project that blends social media, gaming, and crypto, also built on Solana. In contrast, Yapster takes a more centralized approach, rallying communities around shared goals rather than dispersing liquidity across influencers. Users can participate in daily game shows, paying a 0.25 SOL entry fee to create and vote on memes. Winning memes can even be minted into tokens, distributed based on participants’ scores. This model focuses on a single meme rather than multiple influencers, creating a stronger, more unified liquidity flow. Yapster’s invite-only beta has fostered a tight-knit, highly engaged community. A notable example: its first token reached a $25 million market cap in just 10 minutes, showcasing its strong user engagement and value creation potential.
@yapsterxyz: We’ve learned that many users experienced lag and other issues during the game! We’re working around the clock to fix these problems and resolve them as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding and patience during the beta testing phase.
Stability issues due to excessive demand are often a bullish signal for the market.
While Clout offers scalability and operational simplicity for influencers, I’m more drawn to Yapster’s centralized mechanisms and community-driven design. Its focus on converting mass attention into tangible value makes it more sustainable and appealing than dispersing liquidity across multiple individuals.
Dinocoins (XRP, HBAR, XLM)
“What is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger.” —George R.R. Martin
Dinocoins (including XRP, HBAR, and XLM) are classic “hated trades” in this crypto cycle. This trading model works because it reveals the emotional biases of market participants. The skepticism and disdain for these assets often mean investors are under-allocated, leaving significant capital on the sidelines. When these assets start to rebound, investors are often forced to buy in, further driving up prices.
Bitcoin and XRP price charts.
Crypto Twitter has long dismissed Dinocoins as outdated relics, believing they’ve lost their competitive edge against newer, more appealing narratives. However, this very disdain creates opportunities for their unexpected resurgence.
Why They Deserve Attention Now
Despite their poor reputation on Twitter, Dinocoins have shown remarkable strength in price performance and institutional adoption. Here’s why they’re worth watching:
Institutional Recognition: These tokens have solidified their position as “more formal” players in the crypto space, focusing on real-world use cases and partnerships. For example, Ripple’s new stablecoin, RLUSD, demonstrates its efforts to integrate with mainstream finance. XRP’s partnership with Santander and HBAR’s collaboration with the World Gemological Institute further underscore their commitment to institutional adoption.
Regulatory Positioning: With expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, these tokens are well-positioned. XRP and XLM’s ISO 20022 compliance (a standard closely tied to traditional financial systems) enhances their credibility. Additionally, rumors of ETFs (exchange-traded funds) for XRP and HBAR add another layer of appeal, even as Bitcoin ETFs remain the market’s primary focus.
This contrast is striking: while many crypto enthusiasts dismiss them, institutions may be quietly embracing these tokens. Whether you love them or hate them, Dinocoins are taking action, potentially redefining their role in the market. Their focus on compliance, partnerships, and real-world use cases could ultimately prove to be a winning strategy, especially if they gain regulatory favor.
Hedge Fund Liquidity Token Operations
If you still believe in the concept of “fair launches,” here’s a reality check: most tokens’ lifecycles aren’t as democratic as they seem.
Teams Develop Projects: Project teams typically develop projects with a vision for decentralized finance or infrastructure, creating a token as part of the ecosystem.
VCs Provide Funding in Exchange for Locked Tokens: Venture capitalists (VCs) provide funding in exchange for locked or vesting tokens. This arrangement theoretically aligns VCs’ interests with the project’s long-term success, as tokens can’t be immediately sold.
VCs Sell Unlocked Tokens to Liquidity Providers via OTC: As tokens begin to unlock or vest, VCs often sell them to liquidity providers via over-the-counter (OTC) deals. These liquidity providers are typically well-capitalized institutions that buy tokens in bulk at a discount.
Liquidity Providers Dump Tokens During High Market Volume (You’re Here Now): After acquiring these tokens, liquidity providers attempt to create or ride market frenzies. They promote narratives on platforms like Twitter, attract market attention, and boost trading volume to sell tokens at higher prices for profit.
The Reality
Take Raydium as an example—its tokens seem to be mostly unlocked now.
Between 2021 and 2023, venture capital flooded into the crypto market, particularly in DeFi and infrastructure projects. These investments often came in the form of locked or vesting tokens. However, with most tokens now unlocked, VCs need to liquidate these assets to deliver returns to their limited partners (LPs). Starting in mid-2024, many prominent VCs began calling for more liquidity providers. These providers purchase illiquid tokens via OTC deals, giving VCs a market to offload their unlocked tokens.
Rather than blaming the players, understand the rules of the game. VCs are pushing for liquidity providers to take their tokens off their hands via OTC deals, allowing them to start distributing profits from the last cycle to their LPs.
The relationship between VCs, liquidity providers, and the market isn’t malicious—it’s a natural part of capital flow in the crypto ecosystem. VCs rely on well-funded liquidity providers to take their illiquid tokens, often at a discount. In turn, liquidity providers attempt to create or amplify market narratives on platforms like Twitter, attracting attention and boosting trading volume to sell these tokens at higher prices when market conditions are favorable.
Market narratives align with timing.
This isn’t necessarily malicious behavior—I’ve even bought some of these tokens myself. But you need to know your counterparty and have a clear understanding of a token’s lifecycle.
