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Among a series of highly unusual and closely watched market events, OM (Mantra) plummeted nearly 95% in a single day. I have collected as much information as possible and carefully examined the relevant data. In the following analysis, I will gradually sort out the possible reasons behind this crash.
I will explain:
Why OKX was not the source of this sell-off (although this was the accusation I first heard)?
Why did some people sell OM tokens as if it were the end of the world?
Why might a wallet that started staking OM 448 days ago be directly related to this event?
In the first part, we will focus on discussing the market's microstructure and how to correctly analyze such events. Then, I will outline how the entire situation might have unfolded and which roles might have played key parts.
It must be clear that:
This sell-off was by no means "ordinary," even in the cryptocurrency market.
Its scale and chaos have, in my view, pushed many market participants to the brink of liquidation. This is clearly visible in the order book data and capital flows.
Additionally, this is just my personal understanding of the event. These are not formal accusations, nor do I expect you to take any of the content here as the absolute truth.
Except for—perhaps only a few insiders—no one knows exactly what happened.
I hope you read my content with a critical attitude. If you find any inconsistencies in my logic or analysis, please be sure to point them out. I share these out of goodwill, aiming to demonstrate how to deal with complex trading events. Of course, also because I enjoy being in the mix.
OM Crash Event Snapshot
Around 19:30 (UTC) on April 14th, the token OM experienced a large-scale sell-off, which has been listed on almost all mainstream exchanges, including perpetual contract markets. It is particularly worth noting the existence of the perpetual contract market, which is an important detail.
Before the crash, OM had been ranked in the top 25 of the cryptocurrency market cap rankings. However, within just a few hours, its price plummeted by about 95%, with nearly 90% of that drop occurring within an hour.
Such fluctuations are astonishing even for low market cap altcoins ranked 2000 and beyond, not to mention a cryptocurrency ranked in the top 25.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
Market Microstructure: Searching for the Origin of the Sell-off
We will mainly focus on the crucial minutes when the crash occurred. Next, I will analyze a three-minute period, which, for clarity, I will divide into three parts.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
In the first phase, the market showed slight but noticeable selling pressure. This pressure was mainly concentrated in the perpetual contract markets of Binance and Bybit because these platforms provided traders with the most convenient channels for shorting.
Remember: You don't need to hold the current currency to create selling pressure. Perpetual contracts are actually a better option for large directional investments due to their high liquidity and leverage characteristics.
The second step is the most critical because it determines the entire significance of the event, let's analyze it carefully.
First, from a macro perspective:
Although Binance's perpetual contract has the deepest liquidity in the market, the market impact (i.e., the price fluctuation caused by a single market order) is far greater than any other exchange.
This phenomenon conveys a key message:
The main force behind this round of selling is mainly active in the Binance perpetual contract market.
Why is that? There are probably two reasons:
Each round of price fluctuation is initiated by Binance's perpetual contract, and in fact, the platform has always led market trends (which will be detailed later);
Even with deep liquidity support, a large market order still causes violent price fluctuations, causing other market participants to be unprepared or to withdraw orders.
Here is the micro-level evidence:
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
This is a classic case in the high-frequency trading field. A trader with a large-scale short-selling capability relative to market liquidity, we observed transactions of about $1 million every 5 seconds at specific times (18:29:00, 18:29:10, 18:29:15), this high-frequency rhythmic trading behavior clearly reflects institutional-level high-frequency trading strategy characteristics.
Alright, now the situation is: A well-funded market participant is frantically shorting OM tokens, the selling force as if the end of the world is coming. Obviously, each market sell order will cause a huge market impact (about 5% fluctuation), but this impact is only temporary, just the immediate price impact of the trade. Then the market will return to a short-term price equilibrium state. This process will create liquidity gaps between exchanges (presenting a triangular shape), i.e., a certain trading platform's transaction price is significantly lower than the market's public price.
This is why on the Binance perpetual contract market, most of the capital flow after each large market order is actually just the market re-finding its equilibrium state, or transmitting the price signal to other exchanges.
Even with a general strong selling pressure in the market, the real pusher is only one: someone manipulating every tiny fluctuation of OM on Binance (perpetual contract).
We have seen many similar situations. As you can see, this pattern is almost identical: Binance perpetual contract takes the lead, and other exchanges follow suit.
We encounter huge instantaneous market impacts, followed by liquidity gaps, and finally forming a short-term equilibrium.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
Once again, the same pattern occurred. I hope you enjoy these charts as much as I do, because to be honest, every time I see such works, my heart really stirs. This is pure art.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
After a series of similar events, nearly 4 million OM tokens were shorted in an utterly unprofessional, dirty, and chaotic manner. This attack was obviously well-planned, as its operation was fast, brutal, and completely disregarding costs.
But then, things began to get strange.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
On our cumulative volume difference (CVD) screen, we can see that the difference in OM token holdings on Binance perpetual contracts is -4 million, while on OKX (after Binance's price hit bottom) its CVD continues to rise.
Unfortunately, at this point, these exchange data began to mislead. Not just you, but many very smart analysts were also misled.
This is exactly what I said on Twitter today, drawing clear conclusions from trading data is extremely difficult. These data are almost always incomplete. You never know who the market participants are, nor what their intentions are. What you see is just the appearance, and your analysis is to get as close to the truth as possible.
At this moment, I can confidently tell you: Within the next 120 seconds, an OKX user will initiate an unprecedented crazy sell-off. The ferocity of its selling, I'm afraid, will break your cognitive boundaries.
Fasten your seatbelts, what's coming next will be even more exciting!
Let's take a look at the third part of the initial plot.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
One minute after the OM sell-off began, the price had already plummeted 50% from the starting point, and just at this moment, someone suddenly appeared out of nowhere, let's call it the "OKX OM Whale" for now.
This "whale" began to hang market sell limit orders just a few percentage points below the order book top. In the blink of an eye, the transaction price on OKX exchange became much lower than other platforms.
You already know the reason, right? There is currently a huge limit sell order hanging: millions of OM tokens are waiting to be sold.
This is why the CVD shows a positive value, not because the market is frantically buying, but because one participant is selling off all they can, and other participants are taking the opportunity to arbitrage. They are buying on the OKX spot market while shorting on the perpetual contract market or other spot platforms.
Data Unveils the First Three Minutes of OM's Crash: Who Pulled the "Dead Man's Switch"?
Even on OKX exchange, there was a single 2 million OM limit order that kept the price stationary for a full minute. And this is the only reason you see the CVD showing a positive trend.
This is not because people are frantically buying, but because some (most likely only one) market participant sold off
