On June 10, 2025, Ethereum's price surged past $2,827, hitting a 15-week high. Behind this significant price movement, a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions is brewing. Amid this seemingly coincidental market trend, the trading activities of a mysterious whale have become a key indicator of market sentiment.
According to the on-chain tracking platform Lookonchain, an anonymous address executed two precise trades within 44 days:
Round One (April 27): Accumulated 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830 through Wintermute OTC, spending $54.9 million.
Round Two (May 27): Sold the same amount of ETH at $2,621, making a profit of $23.73 million with a 43% return.
Final Harvest (June 10): Sold another 30,000 ETH through OTC for $82.76 million, locking in a $7.3 million profit and a total gain of $31 million.
This is not an isolated case. CoinGlass data shows that Ethereum futures' open interest (OI) has surpassed the $40 billion mark for the first time, indicating that market leverage is approaching a critical point. The current liquidity landscape is delicately balanced: $2 billion in long positions are at risk of liquidation near $2,600, while $1.8 billion in short positions are poised to be liquidated above $2,900. This standoff between bulls and bears is reminiscent of the CDO market in "The Big Short"—any directional breakout could trigger a chain reaction.
Chapter 2: Ecosystem Expansion and Value Gaps
Behind the price rally, Ethereum's ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. According to growthepie data, the number of unique active addresses surged by 70% in Q2, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Base network accounted for 72.81% of the growth (11.29 million addresses), far surpassing the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This "satellite chain feeding the mainnet" model is quite different from the narrative logic of the 2020s DeFi Summer.
Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a $66 billion TVL, its core revenue model is showing signs of trouble:
Fee Collapse: Network fees have plummeted by 90% compared to before the Cancun upgrade, with only $43.3 million in the past 30 days.
Staking Dilemma: While Blob technology reduces Layer2 costs, stakers' annualized returns remain stagnant at 3.12%, significantly lower than competitors like Solana.
Regulatory Shackles: SEC scrutiny of ETH staking has led to an $369 million net outflow from spot ETFs over eight consecutive days, causing cracks in institutional confidence.
These contradictions are reflected in Glassnode's on-chain data: the proportion of "diamond hands" holding ETH for over a year has dropped from 63% to 55%, while short-term holders' selling volume has surged by 47%. When technological upgrades fail to translate into gains for holders, the ecosystem's prosperity can become a driver of value dilution.
Chapter 3: The Bloody Compass of Derivatives Markets
The futures market is experiencing undercurrents, with Ethereum futures' open interest (OI) historically surpassing $40 billion for the first time, indicating high market leverage and potential volatility.
CoinGlass' liquidation heatmap reveals the brutal logic of capital games:
Long Minefield: $2 billion in liquidation risk is concentrated in the $2,600-$2,665 range, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2024 bull market.
Short Graveyard: $1.8 billion in short positions above $2,900 are on the brink, corresponding to the historical low exchange rate of ETH/BTC at 0.019.
Institutional Duality: CME Ethereum futures' open interest accounts for 9%, contrasting with the 24% institutional dominance in Bitcoin futures, suggesting that traditional capital remains on the sidelines.
The畸形 prosperity of the derivatives market is actually a manifestation of the liquidity trap. When the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative and the taker buy/sell ratio falls below 1, the market has entered an "extremely bearish" state. In such an environment, the whale's OTC cashing out is more like a signal of leaving the party before the doomsday carnival—after all, historical data shows that the probability of a black swan event occurring within three months after a record high in open interest is as high as 68%.
Chapter 4: Technical Analysis and Macroeconomic Variables
Examining the current market from a technical analysis perspective, several key indicators suggest potential future movements:
Volatility Squeeze: The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level since February 2024, indicating an imminent breakout.
Weekly Paradox: The price has stabilized above the 50-week and 100-week EMAs, but the MACD histogram shows a bearish divergence, and the RSI value of 42 suggests insufficient upward momentum.
Fibonacci Constraint: A daily closing price above $2,800 will act as a watershed between bulls and bears. A breakout could open up a theoretical price range of $3,200-$3,500, while a failure could lead to a retest of the $2,500 support level.
On the macroeconomic front, geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating dual disturbances. CME interest rate futures show that the market has priced in a 79% probability of 2-3 rate cuts in 2025. If the actual path deviates, the crypto market will be the first to feel the impact. Standard Chartered Bank has warned that if the RWA (Real World Assets) narrative fails to materialize in Q3, Ethereum could face a risk of losing hundreds of billions in market value.
Epilogue: On the Eve of a Paradigm Revolution
Ethereum stands at a historical crossroads:
Staking Economy Restructuring: EIP-7251 will increase the staking cap for validator nodes to 2,048 ETH and optimize the exit mechanism to alleviate liquidity crises.
Layer2 Value Feedback: Forcing Layer2 networks like Arbitrum to allocate a portion of their transaction fees to the mainnet will address the paradox of "ecosystem prosperity but mainnet anemia".
Regulatory Breakthrough: If the SEC approves the 21Shares staking ETF in Q3, it is expected to bring a 15-20% short-term increase and lock in 8% of the circulating supply.
As Peter Brandt said, breaking through the $2,800 congestion pattern could launch Ethereum into a "moonshot" rally to $5,232. However, it is important to be cautious, as the essence of this capital game remains a liquidity hunt driven by leverage. When the $1.8 billion in short positions acts as fuel, the market will ultimately reveal who is driving the trend and who is swimming naked.
