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I debated using the entirety of today's edition to talk markets and the economy, given the significance of this week’s earnings announcements and the release of several key macro indicators. But boring. Since these numbers are top of mind for many, I'll do a very quick recap and save the rest of the article to expand on my piece from last week. Here's what investors are digesting:
First, earnings results. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, Spotify, General Electric, Verizon, Starbucks, McDonalds, UPS, Visa, Caterpillar, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Pfizer all reported this week. In general, Q1 performance was resilient, with many beating consensus expectations, though forward guidance was cautious due to tariff and geopolitical uncertainties. Wall Street analysts cut the 2025 S&P500 earnings growth forecast from 14% to 9%, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs on sectors which rely heavily on global supply chains and foreign revenue, like consumer discretionary and industrials. Tech giants, especially Microsoft and Amazon, demonstrated strength in AI and cloud computing, but supply chain disruptions and higher costs still pose a risk, especially for hardware-dependent companies like Apple.
Second, macro indicators - Q1 2025 GDP, personal consumption expenditures, unemployment, job openings, consumer confidence, trade deficit, and manufacturing PMI were released. Results were mixed, but in aggregate suggested an economic slowdown exacerbated by trade policy uncertainty. As tariff-driven price increases erode purchasing power and confidence dwindles, curbed consumer spending will likely continue to contract real GDP. The labor market continues to show signs of strength.
Here's what I believe (foreshadowing what I'll be talking about later on) - Trump is going scorched earth on the global economy, and it's a strong possibility that escalating trade wars, widening deficits and weakening corporate and consumer spending will push the US economy into recession territory. The reality is that the US economy has been on the brink of a recession for a while now and in all honesty it's probably a good thing, when and if it happens. A reset is needed. The commonly accepted definition for a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the only reason this hasn't happened is because significant government spending by previous administrations (Trump 2016-2020 and Biden 2020-2024) has artificially inflated GDP. If you strip away government spending from the GDP calculation (yes, gov spending is included), GDP has basically flatlined over the past few years. And while tariffs are inherently inflationary in the short-term, the re-shoring of supply chains and manufacturing by domestic and foreign companies will serve American consumers well in the long-term, and price inflation will subside. This thesis is starting to play out - corporations are investing trillions of dollars into onshore capabilities at a breakneck pace.
Okay, now that that's out of the way, let's dive in. Last week, I talked about the need for more contrarianism among founders and investors. Today, I'm going to opine on WHY there hasn't been enough contrarianism among founders and investors. IMHO, it's because people don't believe in anything. Consider this Part Two of "Against the Grain."
If you haven't seen the show Ted Lasso, please get an Apple TV+ subscription and binge it. It's truly exceptional. The series centers around a relentlessly optimistic American football coach who, as a prank initially, is given the improbable task of leading a struggling English Premier League soccer team. Armed with little knowledge of the sport but an unshakeable belief in human potential, Ted hangs a simple, handwritten "Believe" sign above the locker room door - a bright yellow poster with bold blue letters that becomes the cornerstone of his coaching philosophy. This unassuming symbol, initially met with eye-rolls from a skeptical team, evolves into a powerful emblem of resilience and courage. In a world often cynical about idealism, the sign challenges both the show's characters and viewers to choose hope over doubt, and to maintain conviction in the face of conformity.
Coach Lasso's relentless optimism transforms a prank into a movement, proving that genuine belief can spark profound change. But outside the fictional pitch, the real world - especially Silicon Valley and younger generations - seems to have forgotten how to hang up their own "Believe" signs. People today are spineless, drifting without conviction, and it's killing the courage to stand for anything at all.
The valley used to be a place where bold ideas collided, where founders and VCs bet on wild, contrarian visions that could reshape the world. Now, its a graveyard of clones and pointless applications of otherwise promising technology. Another food delivery app, AI chatbot, or crypto scam dressed up as being disruptive. As an example, let's examine some recent funding announcements (I wish I was making this up):
Last week, a San Francisco-based startup called Cluely raised a $5.3 million seed round for its controversial AI tool designed to "cheat on everything." The product enables users to discreetly access AI assistance during interviews, exams, and sales calls via a hidden browser window.
Yesterday, another SF-based startup, named Truely, raised a pre-seed round and launched a software product which triggers an alarm if it detects the use of Cluely during such activities.
Of all the problems needing solving in this country, this is what America's talented young entrepreneurs are building. The irony is palpable - a tech ecosystem once celebrated for moonshot ambitions and a belief in where the world should be 10+ years down the road - think SpaceX's reusable rockets or Google's early search algorithms - now funnels millions into a cat-and-mouse game of cheating and catching cheaters. Cluely's seed round isn't just ethically dubious, but a symptom of a deeper malaise. Comparing itself to a calculator or spellcheck, the company is dressing up intellectual laziness as progress. Meanwhile, Truely's funding round to counter Cluely with detection software feels less like a solution and more like a Band-Aid on a broken system, profiting off the same flawed incentives. This isn't innovation; it is a race to the bottom, where talent and capital chase short-term arbitrage over transformative impact. The Valley's obsession with quick wins reveals a serious drought in creativity and belief.
Founders lack the backbone to chase something original because they don't believe in anything beyond the next funding round. VCs are even worse. They'll nod at your pitch, tweet about changing the world, but their capital flows to safe bets and "me-too" startups. Nobody is willing to stick their neck out for a real idea. Contrarianism comes from believing in something fiercely enough to stand up and go against the grain, but in the valley and other startup hubs, spines are in short supply.
Zoom out. It's not just Silicon Valley. Gen Z and Millennials are drowning in a sea of apathy. We as Americans are endowed with the freedom of speech, but with that, we are less opinionated than ever before, echoing the same tired takes, chasing engagement and hiding behind our phone screens. The social media echo chamber rewards groupthink, not conviction. Scroll through, and you'll see startup copycats parroting the latest hot take without a shred of original thought. We're so afraid of being cancelled or ignored that we've traded belief for blandness. Or maybe it's just that we have lost the ability to form a unique belief in the first place, thanks to the "always on" nature of the internet where everything is immediately searchable, knowable, or purchasable - thus curbing the social value of "new" ideas.
The lack of belief is particularly astute on Twitter. VCs will rationalize spending eight hours per day on the social media platform by saying they were sourcing new deals or learning about a particular topic/trend. And while they may actively post, their posts often read like performative noise - reshaped takes, buzzword-laden threads, or clout-chasing nonsense, rather than genuine opinions or bold convictions. The lack of belief is stark. Instead of championing risky, world-changing ideas, many X-native investors seem more focused on curating their personal brand than funding transformative beliefs. The real work - diligently vetting founders, understanding complex problems, or nurturing long-term innovation - gets sidelined in favor of "market research" - endless scrolling, retweeting memes, and dunking on competitors. Chasing relevance in an echo chamber isn't going to work anymore, and the crisis of belief stems from a culture where even the stewards of capital (both GPs and LPs) prioritize vanity engagement over vision and mistake online clout for actual influence. True belief means betting on the unproven, not broadcasting safe platitudes into a digital void.
The problem runs deeper than social media, though. Belief isn't just about what you say, but about what you do. Standing for something means acting on it, not just posting a manifesto and calling it a day. Want to fix education? Some up with a non-obvious solution. Think crypto's the future? Don't just buy the hottest new memecoin, build an application that matters. But action requires conviction, and conviction requires spine. Younger generations talk a big game about purpose, but when it is time to put skin in the game, too many of us bail. We'd rather scroll, meme, or pivot to the next shiny thing than commit to a fight worth having. It's easier to be cynical, to shrug and say nothing matters, then to plant a flag and defend it.
Even on a personal level, the lack of belief is glaring. Fall in love? Start a family? Those used to be cornerstones of a life well-lived. Now, they're treated like relics, too risky or cringe for the digital age. Millennials and Gen Z opt for fleeting hookups and side hustles over anything that demands real commitment. It's not just about romance - believing in something as simple as buying a home, raising children, or sticking with someone through the chaos and volatility of life takes guts. But we have normalized dodging anything that asks for sacrifice. No wonder we're all so lonely, swiping through apps that promise connection but deliver nothing beyond passive entertainment.
Silicon Valley’s spinelessness and the younger generations’ apathy feed off each other. It's a dangerous, downward spiral that continues to worsen. VCs won’t back founders with real conviction because they don’t believe in anything themselves - just the exit. Founders play it safe, churning out clones because they’re too scared to fail at something bold. Meanwhile, Gen Z and Millennials cheer from the sidelines, retweeting the hype but never daring to step into the arena. We’re all complicit in this cycle of cowardice. The irony? We’ve got more tools, more platforms, and more opportunities to make a dent than any generation before us. Not to mention the fragile state of global affairs, where traditional industries, systems and institutions are more malleable than ever before. Yet we’re squandering it, too spineless to believe in anything enough to act.
What's the fix? Start small, but start real. Find something worth believing in - an outside-of-the-box startup idea, a political belief, a passion or cause. Then back it up with action, not just words. Be opinionated and willing to look like an idiot in pursuit of where your conviction lies. The startup-industrial complex, younger generations - we're not doomed, but are certainly on thin ice. It's time to grow a spine, pick a fight, and prove we're more than a generation of clones and cowards. Hang up your own "Believe" sign above the door.
culture and society feel increasingly ephemeral. sometimes it feels like everyone is saying so much that they are saying nothing at all.
this message is going into the abyss.
this message is going into the abyss.
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legacy media (condé nast, et al), art world (art fairs, events), fashion world (through fashion week) doesn't have the ability to do the parties, high glamour anymore (or at least at the same scale). where is "glamour" going to come from next?
Just got into a Waymo in SF on my way to a wedding and found this in the backseat. Feels like I was meant to pass it along as the first act of an SF romcom…
Yes I was behind the DJ booth but only as a cultural anthropologist
