Key Points:

• Solid-state batteries, once seen as the “holy grail” for EVs, face challenges in mass production.

• Automakers are exploring semi-solid-state batteries as a potential transitional technology.

• The latest developments show solid-state batteries may still be five to seven years away from commercialization.

• Chinese companies are leading the push for semi-solid-state battery adoption.

• Analysts suggest lithium-ion technology will remain dominant for the foreseeable future.

The Shift Away from Solid-State Batteries

The race to develop solid-state batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is losing steam, with several industry experts and analysts expressing doubts about the technology's near-term viability. While solid-state batteries promise significant advantages—such as safer, cheaper, and more powerful energy storage with faster charging times—persistent technological barriers are causing auto giants to consider other options.

Auto manufacturers like Toyota, Nissan, and Mercedes-Benz have invested heavily in solid-state battery research, aiming for breakthroughs by the end of this decade. Yet, experts are now questioning whether solid-state technology will live up to its hype, especially with current lithium-ion batteries rapidly improving in cost and efficiency.

Expert Opinions on Solid-State Battery Viability

Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and e-mobility at Transport & Environment, commented on the ongoing delays, saying, “Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so excited about solid-state batteries. But today, there seems to be a barrier to commercialization.”

The challenges include issues like battery swelling during charging and degradation over time. Despite significant investment, many automakers continue to report that solid-state batteries are still five to seven years away from large-scale deployment.

Semi-Solid-State Batteries: The Potential Bridge Technology

As doubts grow over the practicality of fully solid-state batteries, some analysts see semi-solid-state technology as a viable alternative. Semi-solid-state batteries use a combination of solid and liquid electrolytes, offering a middle ground that could be easier to commercialize. These batteries have already gained traction in China, with companies like CATL, WeLion, and Nio leading the way.

Max Reid, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, suggests that semi-solid-state batteries could fill the gap left by solid-state technology. “Given slower EV demand in the West and these issues with solid-state, you might see a pivot to semi-solid once it’s realized to be a better transitional technology for what this decade needs,” Reid said.

China's Role in Battery Innovation

China's EV market has seen the commercialization of semi-solid-state batteries, with companies like Nio offering vehicles capable of a 1,000-kilometer range using this technology. Other firms like Ganfeng LiEnergy are also developing semi-solid-state solutions with impressive ranges of over 500 kilometers.

Transport & Environment's Poliscanova noted that China is progressing rapidly in battery innovations due to its deep understanding of the battery-making process. “The performance is already good enough for vehicles with ranges between 600 to 800 kilometers,” she added, suggesting that there may be diminishing returns in pursuing fully solid-state technology for automotive use.

Lithium-Ion Batteries: Still the Dominant Technology

Despite the buzz around alternative battery technologies, many experts believe lithium-ion batteries will continue to dominate the EV landscape for years to come. Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, said, “For now, lithium-based batteries are still the mainstay and will likely remain so for the next five to 10 years.”

The ongoing advancements in lithium-ion technology, coupled with its established manufacturing base, make it challenging for newer technologies like solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries to gain a foothold quickly.

Conclusion

The push for solid-state batteries, once heralded as a game-changing technology for electric vehicles, is facing significant challenges. As automakers and researchers grapple with commercialization barriers, attention is shifting toward semi-solid-state batteries and incremental improvements in existing lithium-ion technology. With Chinese companies leading semi-solid battery development and lithium-based solutions still dominating, the future of EV battery technology remains dynamic and uncertain.