Dear degens, solana maxis and anyone that does not hold a 401k because they believe in another utopist or yet to be built world, find below my bull thesis for Sanctum.
https://learn.sanctum.so/docs explains it all very simply but key things from my understanding :
taps into 60b$ of liquidity via native sol staking. Yes, 60b$.
creates a massive liquid pool for lsts which reduces peg and lack of liquidity issues and increases resilience and usage of ‘pegged’ sol assets on dapps, all of that usable as a single ticker called $inf that can be used as $jitosol is being used right now on all dapps
allows the creation of any LST by anyone, skilled or not(for now it’s controlled by their team but I guess will be more open/decentralized in the future).
Tried to find com errors, unoptimized strategy design or anything bearish but there’s litterally nothing that hasn’t been done the right way so far.
There is one smol preoccupation though, they are too obsessed with building a good product which is unfortunately not always good for the token price at the opposite of ponzified/ethenas-like protocols. But we don’t really care about the long term price in fact if we are profit-maxi, we care about execution. Although if you are reading this write-up, you might end up convinced to care long term ;)
Also one thing to mention and you may realize it at the end of the lecture but there is an opportunity cost of being « too early » here. But you’d rather be early than late right?
Key Bullish Points :
They don’t mention any upcoming token although there have been talks of decentralization. They are not token focused and « far »from it yet and are not using the token narrative to capture TVL at all.
They seem to have only one marketing guy (clever one actually) and they are not pushing at all on marketing for now.
They have huge intellectual mindshare @Gumshoe @kelxyz_ to only mention and they have very little retail and farming interest for now (majority of TVL comes from native sol from solana foundation). I expect this to change very soon.
Unofficially but strongly suggested upcoming integration of $inf on dapps such as MarginFi, Kamino, Drift (in this order). Their multisig is tied to jito,marginfi representatives notably. That will boost utility and liquidity of $inf, this is obviously something that I am very much awaiting but it’s something more outside of the team control although its a core feature of the idea behind it. Fortunately, we can count on Solana ecosystem and its strong synergies and connections between protocols.
Anyone will be able to create its own LST. There is a world where Ansem creates ansemSOL and tax 5% of the fees generated by sol native staking emissions. Huge attention that will be constant during the bull from your favorite influencers (that call themselves traders which is true since you are the counterparty against which they are always winning, we never learn right).
Undisclosed funding which might look bearish at first sight but it in fact reveals itself as an edge for sophisticated anlyzors since the TL is radio-silence on it while this protocol is accumulating a billion TVL whether they raised more than a mil or not (which is probably the case still, they might not want to reveal it for unknown reasons, no ?).
Vesting not revealed yet but more than a year initial lockup and 4 years linear vesting suggested.
Team is very open to suggestion, intellectually honest and value transparency.
Solana Foundation already committed some staked SOL, more to follow from other entities. They need to target institutionalized stakers and promote to them the opportunities opening to them with the use of $inf.
Audited by serious companies like ottersec but SC risk is here as always. The $inf peg has actually a trustless oracle by definition so there’s no risk parameters to take into account.
They manage to capture 5% of native sol staking (doesn’t look too crazy but native staked sol is very sticky, it should be their core focus to sensibilize key actors on it). LSTS inflows can be assumed to be way more involved and represent 25% of all sol LSTS.
They manage to TGE when SOL 350$.
That leads to a total of 7b$ of TVL with SOL at 200$. For comparison, Jito has currently 1.8B$ of TVL for 450M Mcap (0.25 ratio). Jito doesn’t have only LST as a product, neither does Sanctum since they litterally do the aggregation job with deep liquidity and a suit of product to allow it. A premium can be expected, study Jupiter valuation.
—> 1.5-2B FDV.
6% Community Airdrop basis. 1% for your favorite illiquid madlads nft collection, 13% for key contributors and partners etc etc... 20% supply released at launch.
450-600M of thin air printed $.
late tokenization/bad timing. Unlikely due to clear vision imo.
They didn’t manage to raise enough and get enough runway. They can’t manage to raise more. They can’t manage to generate fees. They do a public raise, and things go south. I don’t even imagine the first one to happen but you should be prepared for the worst.
Sol stagnates, goes back to 150$. They fail to capture enough TVL. Only 1% of native staking and 5% of LSTs TVL. This represents 800M TVL.
30-50M of thin air printed $.
They mentioned that they are inspired by Jito and Jupiter referring to a token. Ofc sybil actions first come to mind here since they are mentioning tier-based airdrops but trying to game the system against this team doesn’t look the best thing to do to me.
Going into their discord, they also mentioned they will do something different from the meta when talking about points system. Expect no points, be early.
More generally, if we let our profit-maxi deamons talk, best way to position yourself is to be early (now), split available capital into different active wallets for different LSTS/native sol staking (don’t do more wallets than anything rational).
I expect multiplicator bonus and minus to reward good and bad behavior (reward usage of minor qualitative LSTs, active wallet with huge and old activity, ‘punish’ newly created wallets with no previous activity).
I also expect a SUB-LINEAR (but not tier-based like seen with jito) airdrop. Which means smaller capital will get more (proportionally) than whales. That is something very important since I expect the TVL to be represented by a lot of native staked sol which will be formed by whales.
Exluding totally someone is a bad idea, unless it is clearly a sybil. Study Parcl that openly said they liked Jito, then, seeing everyone started creating 20 wallets, demanding some simply clever users to snitch themselves while not clearly admitting that they have obviously X times less users than unique addresses. I hope Sanctum team will be more clever than that and avoid these shenanigans.
Followable accounts (founders) :@eggpanned @soleconomist @datascraper69 @0xF812
Whether or not Sanctum achieves the success they have the ambition to, it is simply and objectively a strategic overlook to not place a bet on it. If you see it as a trade, it is simply the best setup you can possibly ask for when it comes down to use your sol exposure, participate to a booming sol ecosystem and what looks like to be a committed and proven shipping team with backing from established solana protocols.
Let’s revisit this thesis in 3-6 months and we shall see whether we was right or not.
If sanctum is looking for their most committed and instructed shitpostor, they know where to find him
JKE Capital