We assume a lot even if we don’t want to. It’s probably a good thing that we give people the benefit of the doubt, we’re optimistic. Sometimes we’re rewarded, or our optimism is confirmed, and we agree with the assumption that the person or situation is as we thought it would be. Modern life requires us to think quickly, so without making some assumptions we might not get an awful lot done.

At some point, of course, we realise or notice something odd — why would X do that, what could be the reason for it? And then we might discover that we’ve been holding a long, false assumption. Trickery or foolery. The goods were not delivered; the potential was never there. We can only hope that our investment was small.

Of course, you can apply the same thought process to investing. It all comes down to real potential. You can often see it expressed in small things, because small things matter. It could read like this: they might have a great mind, but if they can’t greet you in a positive way, how is this going to work?

So this week I am beginning the process of reducing the number of positions in my portfolio, focusing on founder‑led businesses. I’ve always thought that there would be some manipulation in the push for the ‘hot’ ideas — run it hot, so to speak. When something gets too much attention, it often appears they’re going the opposite way. Today we’ll find out this afternoon what new or recycled idea they have to run hot again.

Is volatility our friend? Ultimately no because you’re just putting a finger in the air and guessing which way things will go. Of course, there’s the overarching principle that whatever direction comes from the White House is expected to push markets upward.